The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

meeeeh

Aegir wrote: »

It is all down to test kit availability. The U.K. is currently doing around 6000 per day, but ramping up to 15000.

I don't know what numbers are for Ireland but I know Slovenia does a bit less than 1000 tests per day for 2 million people. Population of UK is 67 million and they are hoping to ramp it up to 15k which it will be still way less per million. There is fear and complaints in Slovenia that not enough testing is done.

For a first world country that doesn't seem good enough. To me it feels like pure arrogance and attitude that countries like UK don't land in same position like Italy or China.

meeeeh

meeeeh wrote: »

I don't know what numbers are for Ireland but I know Slovenia does a bit less than 1000 tests per day for 2 million people. Population of UK is 67 million and they are hoping to ramp it up to 15k which it will be still way less per million. There is fear and complaints in Slovenia that not enough testing is done.

For a first world country that doesn't seem good enough. To me it feels like pure arrogance and attitude that countries like UK don't land in same position like Italy or China.

Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.

meeeeh

Aegir wrote: »

Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.

Absolute numbers are kind of irrelevant because they don't take into account when cases starting appearing. UK dealt with single cases at the beginning well but testing numbers at the moment seem to me very low. It's like someone forgot to make sure they have adequate numbers of tests and testing facilities available.

Btw I'm not saying Slovenia is doing something particularly well because there are plenty of issues and missed opportunities (considering country borders to north of Italy).

CelticRambler

Aegir wrote: »

Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.

Beware the feel-good factor of doing lots of tests, and especially having lots of negatives. The tests available at the moment show only "obviously infected at the time of the sample" or not; they don't show who has already had the disease and got over it, nor those who are incubating and will turn positive tomorrow or next week (which is why most tests are done in pairs, separated by at least a week), nor those don't have it, but will pick it up tomorrow because they've come into contact with a spreader.

This is why the first - and most effective - line of defence is restriction of movement, as complete as possible and as early as possible. If there's no contact between small groups of people, those who aren't already infected won't become infected. On the other hand, if there are no restrictions on movement, then there is no control, and it doesn't matter how many thousands of tests you do per day: today's results will be completely irrelevant tomorrow.

CelticRambler

For anyone who's interested, I've been looking at the ECDC data and my personal assessment is that the UK (currently fourth in the EU++ table for the number of deaths) will have recorded about 200 deaths by the end of next week, putting it ahead of France and Italy on the exponential curve (France currently reports 175 deaths, can't remember exactly what Italy's was at this point, but about the same). If this situation comes to pass, it will be entirely due to Johnson's faffing about and waiting until "the right time" to do what he should have done last week.

meeeeh

CelticRambler wrote: »

Beware the feel-good factor of doing lots of tests, and especially having lots of negatives. The tests available at the moment show only "obviously infected at the time of the sample" or not; they don't show who has already had the disease and got over it, nor those who are incubating and will turn positive tomorrow or next week (which is why most tests are done in pairs, separated by at least a week), nor those don't have it, but will pick it up tomorrow because they've come into contact with a spreader.

This is why the first - and most effective - line of defence is restriction of movement, as complete as possible and as early as possible. If there's no contact between small groups of people, those who aren't already infected won't become infected. On the other hand, if there are no restrictions on movement, then there is no control, and it doesn't matter how many thousands of tests you do per day: today's results will be completely irrelevant tomorrow.

Again this is from Slovenian media (because of proximity of Italy and family and friends I'm following stuff there closely) but they are saying numbers of seriously ill people are better indication what the situation is. They know approximately the percentage of people who get seriously ill and from knowing how many people are in hospitals you can evaluate the numbers affected. The less you test less people will be infected so that statistic very unreliable.

Donald Trump

Aegir wrote: »

Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.

UK had their first recorded case at end of January.
Ireland had first recorded case at end of Feb

Assuming your numbers, Ireland's rate of tests has been 60% higher than the UK, even given their headstart.

Both need to increase much faster. But the UK made a deliberate choice to do what they are doing. They could have ramped it up much earlier, before it got too bad. 100 extra people diagnosed 2 weeks ago and stopped from spreading it unknowingly, might have resulted in 100's of thousands less infections by the end of the month.

mariaalice

Although they are taking an odd approach to this to be fair to the UK they are keeping the schools open for vulnerable children and children of key employees in the state.

Already domestic abuse refuges are having to warn that pubs closed and being at home all the time is putting vulnerable children and women at risk.

splinter65

mariaalice wrote: »

Although they are taking an odd approach to this to be fair to the UK they are keeping the schools open for vulnerable children and children of key employees in the state.

Already domestic abuse refuges are having to warn that pubs closed and being at home all the time is putting vulnerable children and women at risk.

None of these things have been taken into account here, and we’ve decided that we’re dealing with this crisis far far better then any other country and giving ourselves a big fat pat on the back far too soon for my liking.

RobMc59

splinter65 wrote: »

None of these things have been taken into account here, and we’ve decided that we’re dealing with this crisis far far better then any other country and giving ourselves a big fat pat on the back far too soon for my liking.

Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.

Imreoir2

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.

Lets see how we feel in two weeks time when we have as many cases as Italy does today. I think the response accross Europe has been slow, and our response has been slow too. We are moving in the right direction, but more needs to be done to ensure social distancng is fully enforced. What can be done through mere recommendation has been exhausted and tougher measures are needed to drive the message home where it has not been fully heard.

threeball

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Lets see how we feel in two weeks time when we have as many cases as Italy does today. I think the response accross Europe has been slow, and our response has been slow too. We are moving in the right direction, but more needs to be done to ensure social distancng is fully enforced. What can be done through mere recommendation has been exhausted and tougher measures are needed to drive the message home where it has not been fully heard.

We're going to have 40,000 cases and 3,200 deaths in two weeks? You're talkin sh1te again

rekluse

Boris is a mess, he is rambling and stuttering nonsense and gibberish dodging all questions.

rekluse

rekluse wrote: »

Boris is a mess, he is rambling and stuttering nonsense and gibberish dodging all questions.

He is putting himself out there though.

I know he is a bit of a marmite personality wise, but he isn’t hiding.

Imreoir2

threeball wrote: »

We're going to have 40,000 cases and 3,200 deaths in two weeks? You're talkin sh1te again

18 days if a predicted growth rate of 30% holds. Deaths is another question, Italy has an unusually high death rate thus far.

VinLieger

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.

Germanys numbers arent making sense right now, they record their deaths noting only the cause and not underlying conditions like china was doing in January , so they say pneumonia but dont mention covid, also their recovered and serious/critical are tracking super low compared other EU contries which really doesnt make sense

VinLieger

threeball wrote: »

We're going to have 40,000 cases and 3,200 deaths in two weeks? You're talkin sh1te again

Could easily be this bad mid april though

CelticRambler

meeeeh wrote: »

they are saying numbers of seriously ill people are better indication what the situation is. They know approximately the percentage of people who get seriously ill and from knowing how many people are in hospitals you can evaluate the numbers affected. The less you test less people will be infected so that statistic very unreliable.

All the statistics are unreliable at this stage, because without universal testing, no-one knows exactly what percentage of the sick and dead were positive, nor how that compares to the asymptomatic infected population. This is the fatal flaw in test-led decisions about how and when to impose control measures. By the time you've got a (positive) test result, the virus already has a two-week head-start on you.

And negative results are of no relevance if the person tested doesn't put themselves into isolation immediately. In the early stages of an epidemic, you aim to isolate the positive/contagious cases (and everyone they've come into contact with). Europe didn't do that in December and still didn't do it in January, so the battle was lost in January. Now the primary objective should be to prevent the spread to people who are not yet infected, and at this stage that can only be achieved by keeping the healthy people away from the carriers/shedders. From a public health point of view, this shouldn't be optional, and that's where Johnson is being negligent in refusing to order the closure of public spaces and banning social gatherings.

For comparison, Macron issued his lock-down orders two days ago and asked for the public's cooperation. Yesterday, despite it being a softly-softly day, over 4000 people were fined for being out without good reason (according to anecdotes, mainly Parisians who decamped to their holiday homes in the countryside, taking their germs with them). Today, most of the country's beaches have been declared out of bounds because there are too many feckineejits flouting the rules. Meanwhile in Britain ... :rolleyes:

riffmongous

RobMc59 wrote: »

Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.

Oh no, everything I hear from Germany suggests that they haven't handled it well at all, they are just a week behind everyone else in terms of time and it's going to get bad very soon

RobMc59

Army units in Sefton park Liverpool ,Chester and other strategic positions,also rumours army increasing presence in Northern Ireland.

They won't test people over there. Listened to a guy on the radio today, living in England, him & his daughter showing signs of covid 19, they rang the nhs phone line & were told they probably had it, just stay home & take paracetamol.

threeball

bubblypop wrote: »

They won't test people over there. Listened to a guy on the radio today, living in England, him & his daughter showing signs of covid 19, they rang the nhs phone line & were told they probably had it, just stay home & take paracetamol.

They're playing a numbers game. Listen to the press conference today. Intially deaths will seem high they said but thats because testing is low. Over time this will shift.

So effectively they will ramp up testing to make the number of deaths vs infected seem low compared to the beginning.

Harry Palmr

Did anyone watch the reports from in and around London? While the financial quarter was dead other parts looked like it was a modern Sunday, not jammers but clearly busy with no obvious social distancing, fair few masks. Looks like a little Italy waiting to happen.

4068ac1elhodqr

Some of the media are saying some sort of lockdown of Ldn is imminent (weekend).
They have 1/3 of all cases, and the matter of populaiton density will be a factor multiplier.

Lockdown (of sorts) might simply people there will need ID or paperwork to travel and very reduced public transport (if any).
The old wan has also fled the scene for Windsor, perhaps this is due to the potential use of nearby H'Park when it peaks.

Tabloids banded the 20k figure of troops, but would assume this was for the entire uk.
Even that's a small number, didn't the North have over 10k for decades, but Eng is x10 bigger.

Reason for early Ldn lockish-down is they're weeks ahead of elsewhere due to that 'biz' as usual' policy.
Saying that Gtr. Manc already has 100 confirmed cases.

At the end of the day, you might prefer that, than the zombie ethnic postcoders taking advantage of the situation.

Darc19

Saw some 70ish year old interviewed earlier and asked why she was out and about.

She said that she's British and if she isolated, it would mean giving in to the virus.

I suspect she will end up as a death statistic if that's the attitude.

the purple tin

Darc19 wrote: »

Saw some 70ish year old interviewed earlier and asked why she was out and about.

She said that she's British and if she isolated, it would mean giving in to the virus.

I suspect she will end up as a death statistic if that's the attitude.

Sounds like Princess Anne, she says is going to continue with her royal engagements, drawing crowds of people together and shaking their hands :rolleyes:

The blithering idiot of a so called Prime Minister leader who’s more concerned of his votes, his Conservative party and the economy and surrounds himself with medical advisor puppets rather than concentrating on people’s lives, is all you need to know in order to explain what’s happening in UK right now.

Ireland has clear leadership, medical people on national broadcast station who openly speak their independent mind and are not afraid to criticise but also concur in general with govt approach (for example RTÉ NEWS this evening) instead of the medical “bickering” on UK tv stations.
I’d hate to be UK based right now- no leadership, terrible lack of clarity, indecision - Boris has blood and death on his hands,

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The blithering idiot of a so called Prime Minister leader who’s more concerned of his votes, his Conservative party and the economy and surrounds himself with medical advisor puppets rather than concentrating on people’s lives, is all you need to know in order to explain what’s happening in UK right now.

Ireland has clear leadership, medical people on national broadcast station who openly speak their independent mind and are not afraid to criticise but also concur in general with govt approach (for example RTÉ NEWS this evening) instead of the medical “bickering” on UK tv stations.
I’d hate to be UK based right now- no leadership, terrible lack of clarity, indecision - Boris has blood and death on his hands,

The reason there is no medical bickering on Irish tv, is because they are too afraid of the HSE management. Speak to anyone on the front line and they will tell you how vindictive they are.

threeball

threeball wrote: »

They're playing a numbers game. Listen to the press conference today. Intially deaths will seem high they said but thats because testing is low. Over time this will shift.

So effectively they will ramp up testing to make the number of deaths vs infected seem low compared to the beginning.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Did anyone watch the reports from in and around London? While the financial quarter was dead other parts looked like it was a modern Sunday, not jammers but clearly busy with no obvious social distancing, fair few masks. Looks like a little Italy waiting to happen.

Forget “numbers and testing” for a minute- just going with the reality of Ireland- decisive shutdown of pubs, events, most of retail, and the “in general” conformity of society of what’s been asked of them, certainly compared to UK- we’ll have done well out of this compared to most countries in terms of per capita deaths - the lax attitude of UK society in comparison will surely be enough to show that our efforts were worthwhile overall

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

The reason there is no medical bickering on Irish tv, is because they are too afraid of the HSE management. Speak to anyone on the front line and they will tell you how vindictive they are.

I’ve watched plenty of medical people on RTÉ in last week- they’re not holding back, but also, they’re realists in terms of what can be achieved.

the purple tin

RobMc59 wrote: »

Army units in Sefton park Liverpool ,Chester and other strategic positions,also rumours army increasing presence in Northern Ireland.

If you think about it the army would be a perfect breeding ground for cv. Soldiers sleeping close together in barracks, packed tight in the back of lorries etc.

Seamai

Darc19 wrote: »

Saw some 70ish year old interviewed earlier and asked why she was out and about.

She said that she's British and if she isolated, it would mean giving in to the virus.

I suspect she will end up as a death statistic if that's the attitude.

All because she's British and no one tells them what to do, great attitude.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’ve watched plenty of medical people on RTÉ in last week- they’re not holding back, but also, they’re realists in terms of what can be achieved.

Not really. They are warning of the dangers, not really critical but one admirable quality of the Irish people is the ability to pull on the green jersey.

Seamai

the purple tin wrote: »

Sounds like Princess Anne, she says is going to continue with her royal engagements, drawing crowds of people together and shaking their hands :rolleyes:

That's what centuries of inbreeding does, makes you delusional. In'it.

4068ac1elhodqr

the purple tin wrote: »

If you think about it the army would be a perfect breeding ground for cv. Soldiers sleeping close together in barracks, packed tight in the back of lorries etc.

Would require non-stop testing, but then they'd likely be handed out decent enough equipment, when they need to start throwing CS in some of the various sink estates of Ldn.

Some say the reason you never seen the actual Chinese army (only police) on the streets is because they were isolated from the start, perhaps in their own remote compounds, with no risk of infection.

And ready at anytime to march 2m stong (200m if really needed) strong if/when/where needed. Let's hope the West steps up to the plague.

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

Not really. They are warning of the dangers, not really critical but one admirable quality of the Irish people is the ability to pull on the green jersey.

I don’t get what you’re saying. On UK TV, you have medical people arguing over whether it’s right to close down the schools, the pubs, the shops- that’s a recipe for anarchy when respected people can’t decide- you don’t have that in Ireland- you have a focus on welfare of society, recommended best practices and clear advice- haven’t a clue what you’re on about in terms of green jerseys and couldn’t care less either.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don’t get what you’re saying. On UK TV, you have medical people arguing over whether it’s right to close down the schools, the pubs, the shops- that’s a recipe for anarchy when respected people can’t decide- you don’t have that in Ireland- you have a focus on welfare of society, recommended best practices and clear advice- haven’t a clue what you’re on about in terms of green jerseys and couldn’t care less either.

To me it shows that in the UK, differing options are welcomed and allowed.

How many press conferences has the Irish government given this week?

Aegir

Aegir wrote: »

To me it shows that in the UK, differing options are welcomed and allowed.

How many press conferences has the Irish government given this week?

We’ve had plenty of “opinions” in Ireland too - thing is though, we’ve gone a step further and made bloody decisions and quickly too.

But no, Let’s all sit back so and let everyone have their “say”-

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We’ve had plenty of “opinions” in Ireland too - thing is though, we’ve gone a step further and made bloody decisions and quickly too.

But no, Let’s all sit back so and let everyone have their “say”-

I thought everyone having their say was how Irish politics works, no?

what step further has the Irish government gone? What decisions have been made here but not in the uk?

We’ve closed the schools until the 29th. We all know that’s a false date, but no decision on that yet. What about school exams? We’ve given the orals full marks, which is farcical but it’s something I guess. Still planning on holding the rest though I believe.

What are we doing to support critical workers as far as childcare goes, or the kids whose only escape from negligent parents is their classroom?

Nothing.

How much has the government committed to keeping businesses afloat?

Water John

There is a complete disconnect between how Ireland and the UK have acted. This may have changed with the UK changing course this week.
TMK taking care of the children of medical staff is being looked at.

rekluse

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Did anyone watch the reports from in and around London? While the financial quarter was dead other parts looked like it was a modern Sunday, not jammers but clearly busy with no obvious social distancing, fair few masks. Looks like a little Italy waiting to happen.

I'm in London at the moment, hard to describe, but I would say there is definite edge in the air,

McGiver

To the English gentleman accusing the EU of treating this situation poorly.

Breathe in and repeat with me:

1. The EU is not a country.
2. The EU does not have a government (the Commission is not exactly a gov)
3. The EU does not have a competency in this area and can only provide support.

Breathe out.

As always it's all down to national governments to sort this out. Unlike in Mr Johnson's fictional Euro-bashing columns in Daily Mail, the EU has very limited competencies in reality.

Now, different EU countries are handling the situation in a different way - from most extreme (Denmark, Czechia) to most lax (the Netherlands).

Netherlands is doing very little, similarly to the UK. Ireland is responding adequately but more measures may (and will) come. Spain and Italy reacted late but adequately. Denmark, Czechia and Poland closed the borders completely and announced a serious curfew/lock-down when they had a couple of hundred cases.

I'm familiar with the situation in Czechia, so just for everyone's reference:
- schools closed at 100 cases mark
- borders closed at 150 cases mark
- all public places closed at 150 cases mark
- public told to only undertake essential journeys (groceries, pharmacies, to/from work) at 150 cases mark
- public transport access with a mask only at 300 cases mark
- mask only anywhere in public from 700 cases mark (800 EUR fine otherwise), enforced by the police

Oh yeah and a failure to self-isolate after testing positive has been made a criminal offence (fines and potentially up to 8 years in prison).

dePeatrick

rekluse wrote: »

I'm in London at the moment, hard to describe, but I would say there is definite edge in the air,

How many cases in London?

Larbre34

dePeatrick wrote: »

How many cases in London?

About 1,800.

Darc19

Aegir wrote: »

To me it shows that in the UK, differing options are welcomed and allowed.

How many press conferences has the Irish government given this week?

Look, it's blatantly obvious you have a utter hatred of FG / hse.

So fuc off.

Peregrinus

Aegir wrote: »

To me it shows that in the UK, differing options are welcomed and allowed.

On a matter of pubic safety, differing options are not a good thing, Aegir. Do whe have "differing options" in relation to air traffic control, or rail safety rules, or building fire safety standards? No. And there are good reasons for that.

sydthebeat

Aegir wrote: »

To me it shows that in the UK, differing options are welcomed and allowed.

How many press conferences has the Irish government given this week?

Every hear the maxim "doctors differ, patients die"?

That's exactly the WRONG thing that should be happening right now, and if you are looking to the UK as a better example of how to act in this crisis then you are wildly mistaken

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

Every hear the maxim "doctors differ, patients die"?

That's exactly the WRONG thing that should be happening right now, and if you are looking to the UK as a better example of how to act in this crisis then you are wildly mistaken

The doctors don’t differ and the people making the decisions, ie the four chief medical officers, are all in the same page. As the all the devolved regions.

People are entitled to different opinions though, but as shown in the post above where I am told to fuc off, that seems to be frowned upon in Ireland.

the purple tin

The irish chat show hosts sit well away from each other, look on the BBC morning they are not even a half a metre apart, the same distance thay have always sat.
Now they are telling viewers how serious cv19 is but still sitting on top of each other

EDit

the purple tin wrote: »

The irish chat show hosts sit well away from each other, look on the BBC morning they are not even a half a metre apart, the same distance thay have always sat.
Now they are telling viewers how serious cv19 is but still sitting on top of each other

TBH, people all over the world aren’t getting it. On the BBC website this morning under a story about how the Australian government are tightening “social distancing rules - people in small gatherings should now be separated by at least 4 sq m” was the picture below in which no-one (including the cops) are even 1m apart