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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    Aegir wrote: »
    It is all down to test kit availability. The U.K. is currently doing around 6000 per day, but ramping up to 15000.

    I don't know what numbers are for Ireland but I know Slovenia does a bit less than 1000 tests per day for 2 million people. Population of UK is 67 million and they are hoping to ramp it up to 15k which it will be still way less per million. There is fear and complaints in Slovenia that not enough testing is done.

    For a first world country that doesn't seem good enough. To me it feels like pure arrogance and attitude that countries like UK don't land in same position like Italy or China.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    meeeeh wrote: »
    I don't know what numbers are for Ireland but I know Slovenia does a bit less than 1000 tests per day for 2 million people. Population of UK is 67 million and they are hoping to ramp it up to 15k which it will be still way less per million. There is fear and complaints in Slovenia that not enough testing is done.

    For a first world country that doesn't seem good enough. To me it feels like pure arrogance and attitude that countries like UK don't land in same position like Italy or China.

    Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    Aegir wrote: »
    Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.

    Absolute numbers are kind of irrelevant because they don't take into account when cases starting appearing. UK dealt with single cases at the beginning well but testing numbers at the moment seem to me very low. It's like someone forgot to make sure they have adequate numbers of tests and testing facilities available.

    Btw I'm not saying Slovenia is doing something particularly well because there are plenty of issues and missed opportunities (considering country borders to north of Italy).


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,664 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    Aegir wrote: »
    Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.


    Beware the feel-good factor of doing lots of tests, and especially having lots of negatives. The tests available at the moment show only "obviously infected at the time of the sample" or not; they don't show who has already had the disease and got over it, nor those who are incubating and will turn positive tomorrow or next week (which is why most tests are done in pairs, separated by at least a week), nor those don't have it, but will pick it up tomorrow because they've come into contact with a spreader.

    This is why the first - and most effective - line of defence is restriction of movement, as complete as possible and as early as possible. If there's no contact between small groups of people, those who aren't already infected won't become infected. On the other hand, if there are no restrictions on movement, then there is no control, and it doesn't matter how many thousands of tests you do per day: today's results will be completely irrelevant tomorrow.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,664 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    For anyone who's interested, I've been looking at the ECDC data and my personal assessment is that the UK (currently fourth in the EU++ table for the number of deaths) will have recorded about 200 deaths by the end of next week, putting it ahead of France and Italy on the exponential curve (France currently reports 175 deaths, can't remember exactly what Italy's was at this point, but about the same). If this situation comes to pass, it will be entirely due to Johnson's faffing about and waiting until "the right time" to do what he should have done last week.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    Beware the feel-good factor of doing lots of tests, and especially having lots of negatives. The tests available at the moment show only "obviously infected at the time of the sample" or not; they don't show who has already had the disease and got over it, nor those who are incubating and will turn positive tomorrow or next week (which is why most tests are done in pairs, separated by at least a week), nor those don't have it, but will pick it up tomorrow because they've come into contact with a spreader.

    This is why the first - and most effective - line of defence is restriction of movement, as complete as possible and as early as possible. If there's no contact between small groups of people, those who aren't already infected won't become infected. On the other hand, if there are no restrictions on movement, then there is no control, and it doesn't matter how many thousands of tests you do per day: today's results will be completely irrelevant tomorrow.
    Again this is from Slovenian media (because of proximity of Italy and family and friends I'm following stuff there closely) but they are saying numbers of seriously ill people are better indication what the situation is. They know approximately the percentage of people who get seriously ill and from knowing how many people are in hospitals you can evaluate the numbers affected. The less you test less people will be infected so that statistic very unreliable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,841 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Aegir wrote: »
    Off the top of my head, Ireland has done 6500 tests, the UK 56000.


    UK had their first recorded case at end of January.
    Ireland had first recorded case at end of Feb

    Assuming your numbers, Ireland's rate of tests has been 60% higher than the UK, even given their headstart.

    Both need to increase much faster. But the UK made a deliberate choice to do what they are doing. They could have ramped it up much earlier, before it got too bad. 100 extra people diagnosed 2 weeks ago and stopped from spreading it unknowingly, might have resulted in 100's of thousands less infections by the end of the month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,325 ✭✭✭✭mariaalice


    Although they are taking an odd approach to this to be fair to the UK they are keeping the schools open for vulnerable children and children of key employees in the state.

    Already domestic abuse refuges are having to warn that pubs closed and being at home all the time is putting vulnerable children and women at risk.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,420 ✭✭✭splinter65


    mariaalice wrote: »
    Although they are taking an odd approach to this to be fair to the UK they are keeping the schools open for vulnerable children and children of key employees in the state.

    Already domestic abuse refuges are having to warn that pubs closed and being at home all the time is putting vulnerable children and women at risk.
    None of these things have been taken into account here, and we’ve decided that we’re dealing with this crisis far far better then any other country and giving ourselves a big fat pat on the back far too soon for my liking.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    splinter65 wrote: »
    None of these things have been taken into account here, and we’ve decided that we’re dealing with this crisis far far better then any other country and giving ourselves a big fat pat on the back far too soon for my liking.

    Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.

    Lets see how we feel in two weeks time when we have as many cases as Italy does today. I think the response accross Europe has been slow, and our response has been slow too. We are moving in the right direction, but more needs to be done to ensure social distancng is fully enforced. What can be done through mere recommendation has been exhausted and tougher measures are needed to drive the message home where it has not been fully heard.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,872 ✭✭✭threeball


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    Lets see how we feel in two weeks time when we have as many cases as Italy does today. I think the response accross Europe has been slow, and our response has been slow too. We are moving in the right direction, but more needs to be done to ensure social distancng is fully enforced. What can be done through mere recommendation has been exhausted and tougher measures are needed to drive the message home where it has not been fully heard.

    We're going to have 40,000 cases and 3,200 deaths in two weeks? You're talkin sh1te again


  • Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭rekluse


    Boris is a mess, he is rambling and stuttering nonsense and gibberish dodging all questions.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    rekluse wrote: »
    Boris is a mess, he is rambling and stuttering nonsense and gibberish dodging all questions.

    He is putting himself out there though.

    I know he is a bit of a marmite personality wise, but he isn’t hiding.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    threeball wrote: »
    We're going to have 40,000 cases and 3,200 deaths in two weeks? You're talkin sh1te again

    18 days if a predicted growth rate of 30% holds. Deaths is another question, Italy has an unusually high death rate thus far.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,568 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.

    Germanys numbers arent making sense right now, they record their deaths noting only the cause and not underlying conditions like china was doing in January , so they say pneumonia but dont mention covid, also their recovered and serious/critical are tracking super low compared other EU contries which really doesnt make sense


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,568 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    threeball wrote: »
    We're going to have 40,000 cases and 3,200 deaths in two weeks? You're talkin sh1te again

    Could easily be this bad mid april though


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,664 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    meeeeh wrote: »
    they are saying numbers of seriously ill people are better indication what the situation is. They know approximately the percentage of people who get seriously ill and from knowing how many people are in hospitals you can evaluate the numbers affected. The less you test less people will be infected so that statistic very unreliable.

    All the statistics are unreliable at this stage, because without universal testing, no-one knows exactly what percentage of the sick and dead were positive, nor how that compares to the asymptomatic infected population. This is the fatal flaw in test-led decisions about how and when to impose control measures. By the time you've got a (positive) test result, the virus already has a two-week head-start on you.

    And negative results are of no relevance if the person tested doesn't put themselves into isolation immediately. In the early stages of an epidemic, you aim to isolate the positive/contagious cases (and everyone they've come into contact with). Europe didn't do that in December and still didn't do it in January, so the battle was lost in January. Now the primary objective should be to prevent the spread to people who are not yet infected, and at this stage that can only be achieved by keeping the healthy people away from the carriers/shedders. From a public health point of view, this shouldn't be optional, and that's where Johnson is being negligent in refusing to order the closure of public spaces and banning social gatherings.

    For comparison, Macron issued his lock-down orders two days ago and asked for the public's cooperation. Yesterday, despite it being a softly-softly day, over 4000 people were fined for being out without good reason (according to anecdotes, mainly Parisians who decamped to their holiday homes in the countryside, taking their germs with them). Today, most of the country's beaches have been declared out of bounds because there are too many feckineejits flouting the rules. Meanwhile in Britain ... :rolleyes:


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,592 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    RobMc59 wrote: »
    Ireland,along with Germany appear to have handled the crisis much better than other EU countries which is a credit to them.

    Oh no, everything I hear from Germany suggests that they haven't handled it well at all, they are just a week behind everyone else in terms of time and it's going to get bad very soon


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,831 ✭✭✭RobMc59


    Army units in Sefton park Liverpool ,Chester and other strategic positions,also rumours army increasing presence in Northern Ireland.


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  • Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    They won't test people over there. Listened to a guy on the radio today, living in England, him & his daughter showing signs of covid 19, they rang the nhs phone line & were told they probably had it, just stay home & take paracetamol.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,872 ✭✭✭threeball


    bubblypop wrote: »
    They won't test people over there. Listened to a guy on the radio today, living in England, him & his daughter showing signs of covid 19, they rang the nhs phone line & were told they probably had it, just stay home & take paracetamol.

    They're playing a numbers game. Listen to the press conference today. Intially deaths will seem high they said but thats because testing is low. Over time this will shift.

    So effectively they will ramp up testing to make the number of deaths vs infected seem low compared to the beginning.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Did anyone watch the reports from in and around London? While the financial quarter was dead other parts looked like it was a modern Sunday, not jammers but clearly busy with no obvious social distancing, fair few masks. Looks like a little Italy waiting to happen.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,586 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    Some of the media are saying some sort of lockdown of Ldn is imminent (weekend).
    They have 1/3 of all cases, and the matter of populaiton density will be a factor multiplier.

    Lockdown (of sorts) might simply people there will need ID or paperwork to travel and very reduced public transport (if any).
    The old wan has also fled the scene for Windsor, perhaps this is due to the potential use of nearby H'Park when it peaks.

    Tabloids banded the 20k figure of troops, but would assume this was for the entire uk.
    Even that's a small number, didn't the North have over 10k for decades, but Eng is x10 bigger.

    Reason for early Ldn lockish-down is they're weeks ahead of elsewhere due to that 'biz' as usual' policy.
    Saying that Gtr. Manc already has 100 confirmed cases.

    At the end of the day, you might prefer that, than the zombie ethnic postcoders taking advantage of the situation.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭Darc19


    Saw some 70ish year old interviewed earlier and asked why she was out and about.

    She said that she's British and if she isolated, it would mean giving in to the virus.

    I suspect she will end up as a death statistic if that's the attitude.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,943 ✭✭✭✭the purple tin


    Darc19 wrote: »
    Saw some 70ish year old interviewed earlier and asked why she was out and about.

    She said that she's British and if she isolated, it would mean giving in to the virus.

    I suspect she will end up as a death statistic if that's the attitude.


    Sounds like Princess Anne, she says is going to continue with her royal engagements, drawing crowds of people together and shaking their hands :rolleyes:


  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    The blithering idiot of a so called Prime Minister leader who’s more concerned of his votes, his Conservative party and the economy and surrounds himself with medical advisor puppets rather than concentrating on people’s lives, is all you need to know in order to explain what’s happening in UK right now.

    Ireland has clear leadership, medical people on national broadcast station who openly speak their independent mind and are not afraid to criticise but also concur in general with govt approach (for example RTÉ NEWS this evening) instead of the medical “bickering” on UK tv stations.
    I’d hate to be UK based right now- no leadership, terrible lack of clarity, indecision - Boris has blood and death on his hands,


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The blithering idiot of a so called Prime Minister leader who’s more concerned of his votes, his Conservative party and the economy and surrounds himself with medical advisor puppets rather than concentrating on people’s lives, is all you need to know in order to explain what’s happening in UK right now.

    Ireland has clear leadership, medical people on national broadcast station who openly speak their independent mind and are not afraid to criticise but also concur in general with govt approach (for example RTÉ NEWS this evening) instead of the medical “bickering” on UK tv stations.
    I’d hate to be UK based right now- no leadership, terrible lack of clarity, indecision - Boris has blood and death on his hands,

    The reason there is no medical bickering on Irish tv, is because they are too afraid of the HSE management. Speak to anyone on the front line and they will tell you how vindictive they are.


  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    threeball wrote: »
    They're playing a numbers game. Listen to the press conference today. Intially deaths will seem high they said but thats because testing is low. Over time this will shift.

    So effectively they will ramp up testing to make the number of deaths vs infected seem low compared to the beginning.
    Did anyone watch the reports from in and around London? While the financial quarter was dead other parts looked like it was a modern Sunday, not jammers but clearly busy with no obvious social distancing, fair few masks. Looks like a little Italy waiting to happen.

    Forget “numbers and testing” for a minute- just going with the reality of Ireland- decisive shutdown of pubs, events, most of retail, and the “in general” conformity of society of what’s been asked of them, certainly compared to UK- we’ll have done well out of this compared to most countries in terms of per capita deaths - the lax attitude of UK society in comparison will surely be enough to show that our efforts were worthwhile overall


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  • Posts: 8,856 ✭✭✭[Deleted User]


    Aegir wrote: »
    The reason there is no medical bickering on Irish tv, is because they are too afraid of the HSE management. Speak to anyone on the front line and they will tell you how vindictive they are.

    I’ve watched plenty of medical people on RTÉ in last week- they’re not holding back, but also, they’re realists in terms of what can be achieved.


This discussion has been closed.
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