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Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide
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yosemitesam1 wrote: »How lockdown ever came to be the go to tool for covid just doesn't make sense.
How long central banks can keep funding all of this without causing serious issues in inflation etc could be one of the big factors in deciding when it all ends...
France is finding just over half of new infections have zero symptoms, Spain is 70%.
How many actually get more than cold symptoms let alone flu symptoms
The laws of economics don't seem to apply to Europe/American central banks, what are actually the physical assets that are underpinning the trillions of euros and dollars that are and will be printed by central banks and treasuries to underwrite all this, I doubt they even exist, at what point does the bubble burst, they're has to be a period of hyper inflation in 1st world countries worldwide if for nothing else to simply ease debt burdens been racked up at the minute and from the past two decades0 -
Economic Fundamentals always come home to roost.
'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen
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The laws of economics don't seem to apply to Europe/American central banks, what are actually the physical assets that are underpinning the trillions of euros and dollars that are and will be printed by central banks and treasuries to underwrite all this, I doubt they even exist, at what point does the bubble burst, they're has to be a period of hyper inflation in 1st world countries worldwide if for nothing else to simply ease debt burdens been racked up at the minute and from the past two decades
There’s no call any more for physical assets to back up currency. Haven’t been for quite a while.0 -
patsy_mccabe wrote: »Economic Fundamentals always come home to roost.
It won't be pretty whenever it happens, savings and pensions could be absolutely hammered while the rich will get richer0 -
There’s no call any more for physical assets to back up currency. Haven’t been for quite a while.
Think things through about what's happening.
There is X amount of assets/resources in the world with y amount being traded at any time.
The value in money terms of those assets depends on how much money is out there to chase those assets and the how much faith is in the value of holding savings in cash/bonds etc for the longer-term.
The central banks churn out more money into the system and eventually it really has to start to affect things. But because the whole system isn't based on anything real, if it comes under pressure it could be very bad.0 -
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There’s no call any more for physical assets to back up currency. Haven’t been for quite a while.
That's the issue it's all just numbers on a balance sheet of a computer, the only thing that allows money to be continuously printed by 1st world countries without hyper inflation is simply the status quo been maintained by financiers and bankers to keep the merry go round spinning what's the tipping point where a halt is called to it0 -
Hi all. As of 13 sept 2020...... what is the latest limit on Indoor Meetings??
I was working on the govt release on 18 Aug saying max 6. But I see where IHF are advisin* their member hotels that this now gone out to 50. But I dont see the govt rowing in behind this new number
Can anyone link me to the definitive answer. Many thanks in advance0 -
Hi all. As of 13 sept 2020...... what is the latest limit on Indoor Meetings??
I was working on the govt release on 18 Aug saying max 6. But I see where IHF are advisin* their member hotels that this now gone out to 50. But I dont see the govt rowing in behind this new number
Can anyone link me to the definitive answer. Many thanks in advance
Afaik, all changes that were to occur on the 13th have been deferred until tomorrow and will be announced with the new full programme0 -
New 5 step guidelines coming out tomorrow, for use into the future, built on all that has been learned. These are graded but for example, none of the 5, even to strictest, has schools closing again.0
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yosemitesam1 wrote: »That virologist is in the wrong. There's no way we would have hit 40,000 deaths, US, UK and Brazil have been nowhere near that badly effected. Sweden also has only had a tiny fraction of predicted deaths.
Where is the evidence herd immunity can't work? There is none. Just like there is no evidence that vaccinating the fit and healthy will be able to prevent vaccinated people spreading to the vulnerable parts of society who will have little to gain from the vaccine
On this. From investigations of the virus to date - it looks like the disease has a greater similarity to influenza than say a virus like chickenpox . That does not mean it is like Influenza - rather that vaccines will likley have to match the strain of the virus in any given year. Plus its the vulnerable etc who are likley to receive a vacine if and when one is developed.
Second on 'herd immunity'. Again this method has no reliable modern equivalence. People did not generally became resistant to Influenza or TB which until the development of a vacine - killed people in their droves. Ditto in animals - TB is not let run riot in herds in order to develop herd immunity. And its true TB is not a virus but the comparison stands.
On the numbers of deaths - Sweden has had a much higher death rate than any of the other Nordic countries. That despite Sweden having a whole range of largely voluntary restrictions .
Thing is restrictions kept down infection rates and death rates in those countries where they were implemented. Countries like Brazil and the US which had no nationally coordinated restictions (but rather used local controls) - the infection rate and death rates while certainly less than predicted were much higher than other countries.
And lastly keeping the lid on the virus isn't just about deaths - its about making sure our essential services don't become overrun. The local gp says he is dreading the coming winter- with the possibility of covid and influenza hitting people. I'd say we're not out of the woods yet.0 -
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On this. From investigations of the virus to date - it looks like the disease has a greater similarity to influenza than say a virus like chickenpox . That does not mean it is like Influenza - rather that vaccines will likley have to match the strain of the virus in any given year. Plus its the vulnerable etc who are likley to receive a vacine if and when one is developed.
Second on 'herd immunity'. Again this method has no reliable modern equivalence. People did not generally became resistant to Influenza or TB which until the development of a vacine - killed people in their droves. Ditto in animals - TB is not let run riot in herds in order to develop herd immunity. And its true TB is not a virus but the comparison stands.
On the numbers of deaths - Sweden has had a much higher death rate than any of the other Nordic countries. That despite Sweden having a whole range of largely voluntary restrictions .
Thing is restrictions kept down infection rates and death rates in those countries where they were implemented. Countries like Brazil and the US which had no nationally coordinated restictions (but rather used local controls) - the infection rate and death rates while certainly less than predicted were much higher than other countries.
And lastly keeping the lid on the virus isn't just about deaths - its about making sure our essential services don't become overrun. The local gp says he is dreading the coming winter- with the possibility of covid and influenza hitting people. I'd say we're not out of the woods yet.
Coronavirus behaves in a fundamentally different way to flu viruses. Full and lasting immunity is rapidly gained to flu strains but coronavirus behaves very differently in how it infects and survives in the population.
People naturally become resistant to all influenza strains they're exposed to. It's why flu strains have to keep mutating so rapidly compared to other viruses. If they're not constantly new to the person they're exposed to they would not survive as unlike coronavirus they have to actually make it inside the body to replicate, coronavirus can replicate in mucous and persist without actually generating an immune response. It probably relies on getting a jump on the immune system to cause disease in people who are not at 100% for various reasons but already have been exposed and generated an immune response in the past.
Tb is much more complicated and I don't know if it can be compared in the way you did.
Compare this coronavirus to how bovine coronavirus behaves in herds.
It can cause severe disease in calves so cows are vaccinated to produce antibodies in their milk. Those vaccinated cows can and do often shed virus and if they go through stress, they can suffer a bad case of coronavirus as adults even though it could have been a strain that they'd been exposed to multiple times before. The calves will pick up coronavirus at some point and will act as part of the reservoir for the virus, they may or may not actually suffer symptoms (a few off days could easily go unnoticed) but will have gotten through the most critical part of their lives so it is unlikely to make much difference.
Herd immunity doesn't mean that the pathogen is totally under control. There would be a big difference between a totally naïve herd being exposed to standard bovine coronavirus Vs the herd which is carrying coronavirus but has immunity present. Both could lose animals, it doesn't mean that herd immunity isn't present and working in the previously exposed herd. There seems to be this idea that herd immunity is a perfect mechanism or it's not there at all which is totally incorrect.
Sweden had other factors at play that likely increased the death rate further than the other Scandinavian countries.
It has to be still established what the actual hospitalisation rate of covid is at a population level. The 10-15% rate that was predicted at the start of the outbreak was total nonsense. It's most likely around 1% or less.
Covid and influenza are unlikely to hit together. There is reasons why the prevalence of different respiratory infections vary according to the time of year. Are they understood? Probably not, but patterns that have always been consistent are that way for a reason.
There doesn't seem to be much thought given to the ecological aspects of respiratory disease. It's far more complex than simply being exposed to a pathogen.0 -
yosemitesam1 wrote: »Coronavirus behaves in a fundamentally different way to flu viruses. Full and lasting immunity is rapidly gained to flu strains but coronavirus behaves very differently in how it infects and survives in the population.
People naturally become resistant to all influenza strains they're exposed to. It's why flu strains have to keep mutating so rapidly compared to other viruses. If they're not constantly new to the person they're exposed to they would not survive as unlike coronavirus they have to actually make it inside the body to replicate, coronavirus can replicate in mucous and persist without actually generating an immune response. It probably relies on getting a jump on the immune system to cause disease in people who are not at 100% for various reasons but already have been exposed and generated an immune response in the past.
Tb is much more complicated and I don't know if it can be compared in the way you did.
Compare this coronavirus to how bovine coronavirus behaves in herds.
It can cause severe disease in calves so cows are vaccinated to produce antibodies in their milk. Those vaccinated cows can and do often shed virus and if they go through stress, they can suffer a bad case of coronavirus as adults even though it could have been a strain that they'd been exposed to multiple times before. The calves will pick up coronavirus at some point and will act as part of the reservoir for the virus, they may or may not actually suffer symptoms (a few off days could easily go unnoticed) but will have gotten through the most critical part of their lives so it is unlikely to make much difference.
Herd immunity doesn't mean that the pathogen is totally under control. There would be a big difference between a totally naïve herd being exposed to standard bovine coronavirus Vs the herd which is carrying coronavirus but has immunity present. Both could lose animals, it doesn't mean that herd immunity isn't present and working in the previously exposed herd. There seems to be this idea that herd immunity is a perfect mechanism or it's not there at all which is totally incorrect.
Sweden had other factors at play that likely increased the death rate further than the other Scandinavian countries.
It has to be still established what the actual hospitalisation rate of covid is at a population level. The 10-15% rate that was predicted at the start of the outbreak was total nonsense. It's most likely around 1% or less.
Covid and influenza are unlikely to hit together. There is reasons why the prevalence of different respiratory infections vary according to the time of year. Are they understood? Probably not, but patterns that have always been consistent are that way for a reason.
There doesn't seem to be much thought given to the ecological aspects of respiratory disease. It's far more complex than simply being exposed to a pathogen.
Not to go into each and every line - the point remains that the mechanism of herd immunity
has no reliable modern equivalence. It is a theory which even in Sweden appears to have failed to materialise despite the lack of restrictions there. Putting all our money on such a theory is hugely risky tbf
As to immunity to influenza - the point is we now have available annual vaccines. Prior to this people died in large numbers during influenza outbreaks. Those numbers have certainly been reduced but unfortunately not entirely eliminated partially at least due to strain variability and those who chose not to be vaccinated. No vaccine for covid19 has yet been released yet. with scientists stating that it is very likley any such vaccine will have to be reformulated each year.
A reassurgence of covid has been predicted for the winter months. That is the normal flu season. The GP I referred to - believes both are likley to hit (not necessarily as a co-infection in all cases obviously) - but both will cause significant strain on a system which struggles each year to cope. That said having personally had full blown flu and pneumonia at different times - I really would not rate anyone chances who contract covid and influenza regardless of age or otherwise0 -
Not to go into each and every line - the point remains that the mechanism of herd immunity
has no reliable modern equivalence. It is a theory which even in Sweden appears to have failed to materialise despite the lack of restrictions there. Putting all our money on such a theory is hugely risky tbf
As to immunity to influenza - the point is we now have available annual vaccines. Prior to this people died in large numbers during influenza outbreaks. Those numbers have certainly been reduced but unfortunately not entirely eliminated partially at least due to strain variability and those who chose not to be vaccinated. No vaccine for covid19 has yet been released yet. with scientists stating that it is very likley any such vaccine will have to be reformulated each year.
A reassurgence of covid has been predicted for the winter months. That is the normal flu season. The GP I referred to - believes both are likley to hit (not necessarily as a co-infection in all cases obviously) - but both will cause significant strain on a system which struggles each year to cope. That said having personally had full blown flu and pneumonia at different times - I really would not rate anyone chances who contract covid and influenza regardless of age or otherwise
Consider the term herd suppression, as the majority of pathogens are never ever fully eliminated due to immunity. Most exist continuously and are dangerous only for a small minority of the population. For example take the other pre covid coronavirus strains, they can and do all kill every year but are only dangerous to the very old and weak.
Sweden would seem to be at that stage as it is now at the lower end of the scale of new infections in Europe. The problem is that no research on antibody prevalence at population level has really been carried out before to give us benchmark data to base covid off.
The idea that we need 60-70% immune to keep things stable is nonsense.
No disease moves through any population in a homogeneous way with each individual exposed having an equal chance of infection.
Flu vaccines only actually make small (if any) differences to mortality as vaccines struggle to protect those who need them most. This will be the same with a covid vaccine.
Every old person will have their day of reckoning against covid with or without a vaccine. A vaccine will likely mean that the disease will be less severe for many people. But for a typical 84 year-old with multiple underlying conditions, ultimately what will decide if they live or die is how much vigour is left in them.
Look up the seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens. Flu and coronavirus are seasonal rhinovirus being less so.
Flu season is late autumn and winter, coronavirus season is late winter through spring.
A flu infection will generally mean that you are less likely to get a coronavirus infection as non specific immunity is ramped up post infection.
There is no reason to think that a super infection of coronavirus and flu would happen. Why don't people suffer multiple flu strains+rhinovirus+coronavirus infections as things are? All capable of killing in their own right, together they'd be unstoppable, only the mechanism of how an infection and disease progresses is far more complicated and each strain of virus will be looking for different cues/conditions before they actually cause an infection.0 -
yosemitesam1 wrote: »Consider the term herd suppression, as the majority of pathogens are never ever fully eliminated due to immunity. Most exist continuously and are dangerous only for a small minority of the population. For example take the other pre covid coronavirus strains, they can and do all kill every year but are only dangerous to the very old and weak. Sweden would seem to be at that stage as it is now at the lower end of the scale of new infections in Europe. The problem is that no research on antibody prevalence at population level has really been carried out before to give us benchmark data to base covid off.
The idea that we need 60-70% immune to keep things stable is nonsense.No disease moves through any population in a homogeneous way with each individual exposed having an equal chance of infection.
Flu vaccines only actually make small (if any) differences to mortality as vaccines struggle to protect those who need them most. This will be the same with a covid vaccine.
Every old person will have their day of reckoning against covid with or without a vaccine. A vaccine will likely mean that the disease will be less severe for many people. But for a typical 84 year-old with multiple underlying conditions, ultimately what will decide if they live or die is how much vigour is left in them.
Look up the seasonal variation of respiratory pathogens. Flu and coronavirus are seasonal rhinovirus being less so.
Flu season is late autumn and winter, coronavirus season is late winter through spring.
A flu infection will generally mean that you are less likely to get a coronavirus infection as non specific immunity is ramped up post infection.
There is no reason to think that a super infection of coronavirus and flu would happen. Why don't people suffer multiple flu strains+rhinovirus+coronavirus infections as things are? All capable of killing in their own right, together they'd be unstoppable, only the mechanism of how an infection and disease progresses is far more complicated and each strain of virus will be looking for different cues/conditions before they actually cause an infection.
Again not going through each point individually.
It remains herd immunity as the solution - has no reliable modern equivalence.
The other significant point is that is a "Novel" Coronavirus and this point in time - speculating that it will definitely behave in the same way other coronviruses is effectively moot. But yes it has been detailed by medical professionals that both covid19 and influenza infections are very likley to overlap. Not much that can do about that tbh other than to increase Flu vaccine uptake and make ready essential services for potentially a very difficult autumn/ winter / spring.
And yes co-infection from a range of pathogens can certainly be an issue where the immune system is under stress from another infection. In April, a team at Stanford University found that among 116 people in Northern California who tested positive for the coronavirus in March, 24 also tested positive for at least one other respiratory pathogen, most often rhinoviruses and enteroviruses that cause cold symptoms, as well as RSV. Only one of the patients had influenza, although there likely wasn’t much flu circulating so late in the U.S. season, according to Stanford pathologist Benjamin Pinsky.
All that said - I reckon possibly best thing is to watch this space as otherwise it means going yet further into the realms of more general / unqualified speculation about what is in effect a brand new disease and one we are still learning about tbf.0 -
Again not going through each point individually.
It remains herd immunity as the solution - has no reliable modern equivalence.
The other significant point is that is a "Novel" Coronavirus and this point in time - speculating that it will definitely behave in the same way other coronviruses is effectively moot. But yes it has been detailed by medical professionals that both covid19 and influenza infections are very likley to overlap. Not much that can do about that tbh other than to increase Flu vaccine uptake and make ready essential services for potentially a very difficult autumn/ winter / spring.
And yes co-infection from a range of pathogens can certainly be an issue where the immune system is under stress from another infection.
All that said - possibly best thing is to watch this space before going further into the realms of more general or unqualified speculation about what is in effect a brand new disease
There is a very valid argument to be said that if more of the population got the flu this winter we would see less coronavirus in spring.
Unfortunately it's an example of the problems in science. Nothing can be said without immersing oneself in excessive detail and running down rabbit holes that probably don't matter at all all the while failing to look at the big picture. This quote springs to mind;
‘Let us not drop at once into the soil and lose ourselves in the darkness of its details, but first
let us look about and see how our field is related to the world at large and to the powers that
energise in it, let us begin with sunshine and the work it does’
We see far to many virologists, immunologists etc commenting on what is a field science far removed from their area of expertise.
Nobody can argue that the sampling we are doing is not biased and is representative of the population as a whole, but yet they trust these figures as representative of the full picture when anything but.0 -
40 dubs stayed and socialised around Tullamore last week, 20 have since proved positive. Next week should be interesting in the midlands0
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In isolation here, young lad had a cough. Which he gets routinely as he's back at the childminder. He got his test today, 3 days for results. Am allowed out on the farm but not near any people. Tis a pita when ya run low on simple things like milk!0
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[Deleted User] wrote: »In isolation here, young lad had a cough. Which he gets routinely as he's back at the childminder. He got his test today, 3 days for results. Am allowed out on the farm but not near any people. Tis a pita when ya run low on simple things like milk!
My cousin and her family went through the same thing recently. Tests all came back negative and it turned out they all had the flu. Fingers crossed its the same for yourselves. There's a lot to be said for the old way of having the milk, butter, eggs and bread being delivered to the house a couple of times a week without having to worry about such things!0 -
My cousin and her family went through the same thing recently. Tests all came back negative and it turned out they all had the flu. Fingers crossed its the same for yourselves. There's a lot to be said for the old way of having the milk, butter, eggs and bread being delivered to the house a couple of times a week without having to worry about such things!
Thanks, I'm certain it's just his normal cold. He pretty much has it for the duration he's at the childminders, it's like pass the virus parcel between kids. But now any new cough requires a test so we assume we have it and keep away from others.0 -
Just got the all clear there ðŸ˜0
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Just waiting for test result here. Wife had a cough all week got tested yesterday at 12.30. Hope to get result soon. Supposed to be working this weekend getting treble pay.[Deleted User] wrote: »Just got the all clear there ðŸ˜0 -
Herself was saying that the test for children is nasal swab only now. Probably make it easier on them.
She was tested herself few weeks ago while being admitted through ED. Few hours wait for results, maybe 4-6.
Hopefully we have testing capacity under control. The usual return to school sow throats and coughing needs to be discounted quickly to keep families and schools going.0 -
40 dubs stayed and socialised around Tullamore last week, 20 have since proved positive. Next week should be interesting in the midlands
Very sad story to this, a woman died in the pool in the Bridge House hotel, They found the virus in the Post Mortem, Then they tested the rest, 20 positive0 -
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You'd have to wonder though about 40 people heading off on a golfing trip during a pandemic.
My thoughts too, but they're in enough strife without everyone sticking the boot in, They shouldn't have been there but reports are that they concentrated in one area of the town, but yea they shouldn't have been there.
Another Golfgate0 -
Herself was saying that the test for children is nasal swab only now. Probably make it easier on them.
She was tested herself few weeks ago while being admitted through ED. Few hours wait for results, maybe 4-6.
Hopefully we have testing capacity under control. The usual return to school sow throats and coughing needs to be discounted quickly to keep families and schools going.
Nasal swab is what the young fella had. There's going to be a lot of forced time off from now until next May. Our lad had a regular recurring cold last year.0 -
You'd have to wonder though about 40 people heading off on a golfing trip during a pandemic.
I'm in the minority but I cannot understand why hotels, restaurants, golf/sport clubs, gastro pubs were allowed to remain open considering the recent increase in numbers - probably due to the power of the Licenced Vinters Association.My thoughts too, but they're in enough strife without everyone sticking the boot in, They shouldn't have been there but reports are that they concentrated in one area of the town, but yea they shouldn't have been there.
Another Golfgate
What are the numbers going to be like in two weeks time after the pubs open on Monday.0 -
Base price wrote: »I'm in the minority but I cannot understand why hotels, restaurants, golf/sport clubs, gastro pubs were allowed to remain open considering the recent increase in numbers - probably due to the power of the Licenced Vinters Association.
What are the numbers going to be like in two weeks time after the pubs open on Monday.
I’d agree with you Base...
And are the pubs going to open everywhere except Dublin now come Monday?
Will that lead to more incidences like Tullamore above, where people from Dublin travel to somewhere else in the country?0 -
Brother was saying it took him 2 and a half hours to get down to Wexford yesterday afternoon (Lives in Wexford). He said he's never seen so much traffic going out of Dublin on a Friday. The town he's close to was chocablock with people. 4 pubs in the town closed their doors due to the crowds.
The horse has well and truly bolted by the time the guards get on the roads with their checkpoints. I can never understand why some people can't do with going to the pub for a couple of weekends and follow the advice. Absolute muppets of the highest order. I hope every hotel and pub in the country turns them away.0 -
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See northern Ireland had a record number of cases today, 222 I think0
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