Coronavirus Pandemic Information- Local and Worldwide

_Brian

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

They come out with these statements that aren't backed up by any facts and shows their lack of understanding.
Through april-late May, a young person was highly unlikely to even be considered for a test while testing focused largely on nursing homes and healthcare settings.
Now anyone can get a test, so just because there's more younger people being given positive results now means nothing. The cases diagnosed earlier in the year were in no way representative of what was happening in the population as a whole

Yes.
The only way the profile of cases now could be compared to the previous profile of cases was if a standard section of society was consistently tested throughout which is absolutely not the case.

NcdJd

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

They come out with these statements that aren't backed up by any facts and shows their lack of understanding.
Through april-late May, a young person was highly unlikely to even be considered for a test while testing focused largely on nursing homes and healthcare settings.
Now anyone can get a test, so just because there's more younger people being given positive results now means nothing. The cases diagnosed earlier in the year were in no way representative of what was happening in the population as a whole

So your saying Mike Ryan is a bull**** artist? I give up.

yosemitesam1

_Brian wrote: »

Yes.
The only way the profile of cases now could be compared to the previous profile of cases was if a standard section of society was consistently tested throughout which is absolutely not the case.

And it's a mistake that has been made multiple times in the last six months by people who are supposed to be experts.
They are pretty much treating the covid case numbers like stroke numbers, heart attack numbers etc instead of treating them as a very crude field analysis with inherent bias.

Testing and tracing hasn't brought us any closer to getting on top of covid and it is fairly questionable about the value of a positive test result when a large amount continues to go undetected.
We could generate reliable data of what covid is doing in the population by monitoring a subset of the population or a continuous random sampling of the population.
It would get rid of the rollercoaster case numbers and nphet losing their sh1t every time there is some sort of a blip in test results.

yosemitesam1

NcdJd wrote: »

So your saying Mike Ryan is a bull**** artist? I give up.

He doesn't understand what the data generated means if he can come out with a statement like that.
Our testing was biased towards older people and then that bias was reduced, of course that's going to shift the results.

You go out pulling soil samples from a field and pull the majority of cores from dung patches, then go back out a year later and pull them at random.
Does the change in results you receive bare any relation to what has actually happened to the nutrient status of the field?

NcdJd

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

He doesn't understand what the data generated means if he can come out with a statement like that.
Our testing was biased towards older people and then that bias was reduced, of course that's going to shift the results.

You go out pulling soil samples from a field and pull the majority of cores from dung patches, then go back out a year later and pull them at random.
Does the change in results you receive bare any relation to what has actually happened to the nutrient status of the field?

All I'll say is that I'll follow the advise from the WHO, Nephet and qualified virologist as with any dangerous infectious disease. I'm not bulletproof and if I get covid or my family get covid I don't know what impact this will have on our health as there's a bit of Russian roulette involved as to how people's systems react to the virus. And you shouldn't think your bullet proof either.

Everyone needs to follow the guidelines of washing your hands, wearing a mask and keeping a distance. The amount of people I see around not wearing a mask when in certain areas is unreal. And some of these people would be in high risk categories physically.

As for testing, there are big constraints in supply chains and always have been so big population testing is not realistic unless they are successful with the saliva test that is near completion.

Edit: if the department of agriculture sent out guidelines to you on swine flu, and you were a pig farmer, would you follow them or just question the veracity of the guidelines?

jaymla627

NcdJd wrote: »

So your saying Mike Ryan is a bull**** artist? I give up.

Their advice re air travel and how it wasnt a major issue at the start letting millions of people fly out of wuhan basically spreading the virus worldwide would leave you not having to much faith in the man to be honest, abit like our own Tony becoming a saviour when he shouldn't even of been in the job after the cervical check scandal

yosemitesam1

NcdJd wrote: »

All I'll say is that I'll follow the advise from the WHO, Nephet and qualified virologist as with any dangerous infectious disease. I'm not bulletproof and if I get covid or my family get covid I don't know what impact this will have on our health as there's a bit of Russian roulette involved as to how people's systems react to the virus. And you shouldn't think your bullet proof either.

Everyone needs to follow the guidelines of washing your hands, wearing a mask and keeping a distance. The amount of people I see around not wearing a mask when in certain areas is unreal. And some of these people would be in high risk categories physically.

As for testing, there are big constraints in supply chains and always have been so big population testing is not realistic unless they are successful with the saliva test that is near completion.

Edit: if the department of agriculture sent out guidelines to you on swine flu, and you were a pig farmer, would you follow them or just question the veracity of the guidelines?

I've followed all guidelines except the recommendation that I cocoon and have never suggested that anyone shouldn't.
It doesn't mean that I can't question the likes of nphet.

We have more than enough testing capacity to monitor at a population level as an individual diagnosis is only actually useful in a minority of cases like a meat factory worker etc. Giving anyone who wants a test without a good reason is squandering our resources

NcdJd

jaymla627 wrote: »

Their advice re air travel and how it wasnt a major issue at the start letting millions of people fly out of wuhan basically spreading the virus worldwide would leave you not having to much faith in the man to be honest, abit like our own Tony becoming a saviour when he shouldn't even of been in the job after the cervical check scandal

Agree they were a indecisive about air travel, but would still take them seriously as they do advise most countries around the world on this.

NcdJd

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

I've followed all guidelines except the recommendation that I cocoon and have never suggested that anyone shouldn't.
It doesn't mean that I can't question the likes of nphet.

We have more than enough testing capacity to monitor at a population level as an individual diagnosis is only actually useful in a minority of cases like a meat factory worker etc. Giving anyone who wants a test without a good reason is squandering our resources

Fair enough yosemitesam.

alps

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

He doesn't understand what the data generated means if he can come out with a statement like that.
Our testing was biased towards older people and then that bias was reduced, of course that's going to shift the results.

You go out pulling soil samples from a field and pull the majority of cores from dung patches, then go back out a year later and pull them at random.
Does the change in results you receive bare any relation to what has actually happened to the nutrient status of the field?

Nice analogy...

_Brian

We’re so early into the lifecycle of this virus.

It’s prudent to take a cautious stance until we see how it will behave over the traditional season and until long term health effects are better understood.

From a government policy perspective it’s easier to defend being excessively cautious than excessively wreckless.

Water John

The work on backlog of waiting lists would want to get the same special attention now. A bit of lateral thinking to process the numbers. I know there is one drive through clinic in Dublin, think it has to do with eyes. A lot of the specific tests could be run anywhere.

naughto

Water John wrote: »

The work on backlog of waiting lists would want to get the same special attention now. A bit of lateral thinking to process the numbers. I know there is one drive through clinic in Dublin, think it has to do with eyes. A lot of the specific tests could be run anywhere.

You would have to start doing weekend clinics and thers no way consultants will agree to that.

Water John

Quite often consultants are only needed to read tests. Thus the two aspects can be separate.

Neddyusa

Water John wrote: »

The work on backlog of waiting lists would want to get the same special attention now. A bit of lateral thinking to process the numbers. I know there is one drive through clinic in Dublin, think it has to do with eyes. A lot of the specific tests could be run anywhere.

The waiting lists for all sorts of procedures must be off the scale now.
As Sam said above - a more targeted CV testing programme could achieve more in terms of informing us of the status of the virus, at a fraction of the cost.

Water John

Remember private consultants had no say in what happened with the private hospitals last March. Told like it or lump it.

einn32

Another two weeks of strict lockdown here in Victoria to go, with 6 done. I'm working away still. I don't mind it really probably because I'm used to a bit of sacrifice and working long hours on my own on farms in the past. Everyone is wearing masks that I meet. I list where I've been for work on paper to show if I'm stopped. In reality most of it is up to the person. The cops can't manage it all. Work is not as busy as it was due to construction worker constraints and less work starting so that is a worry. Anyway I'll head back to agriculture if the job gets canned. A lot of agri jobs about. Less backpackers is hurting harvest of fruits etc. Grain harvest workers are struggling to cross borders too I think.

Gradual lifting of restrictions will take place depending on 14 day average numbers being below a fixed number. Weather is crap too which is keeping people indoors I reckon but on the whole most people stick to the hour exercise. The daily cases have come way down. Sewage treatment plants will be tested now too which will be interesting to see results.

greysides

Face masks may help reduce disease severity and aid development of immunity.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/face-masks-could-giving-people-covid-19-immunity-researchers/

greysides

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/draconian-restrictions-around-covid-19-condemned-by-hse-doctor-1.4352701?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR1pBMTekZkgEAVj8DwfcoUXO8dbAXx2BZUR4Gjr2d30V3AWAzdjGbMLuPQ

Extracts:

Covid-19 is “much less severe” than the average annual flu and current “draconian” restrictions are no longer justified, according to a senior Health Service Executive doctor.

Dr Feeley says that while the initial measures taken by the Government were “totally acceptable and justifiable”, this is no longer the case, given what we now know about the disease.


People at low risk from the virus should be exposed to it so they can develop herd immunity and reduce the risk to vulnerable groups, according to Dr Martin Feeley, clinical director of the Dublin Midlands Hospital Group.

“That is what is happening and yet the policy seems to be to prevent it,” he says. “This should have been allowed to happen during the summer months before the annual flu season, to reduce the workload on the health service during winter months.”

Covid-19 is “profoundly different” from the Spanish flu pandemic of a century ago, he maintains, saying that that was “an indiscriminate killer” that largely targeted the young.

"Experience has taught us that at-risk and vulnerable individuals are identifiable with remarkable accuracy; and protective measures, hygiene, masks, social distancing and cocooning are effective.”

The presence of a “chronic illness” is the “all-important factor” in determining a person’s Covid-19 risk, he points out. “You can identify with amazing accuracy who is at risk, as with no other disease.”

“The best-kept secret regarding Covid-19 is the vulnerability of individuals who are overweight,” he asserts.

Neddyusa

greysides wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/draconian-restrictions-around-covid-19-condemned-by-hse-doctor-1.4352701?mode=amp&fbclid=IwAR1pBMTekZkgEAVj8DwfcoUXO8dbAXx2BZUR4Gjr2d30V3AWAzdjGbMLuPQ

Extracts:

Covid-19 is “much less severe” than the average annual flu and current “draconian” restrictions are no longer justified, according to a senior Health Service Executive doctor.

Dr Feeley says that while the initial measures taken by the Government were “totally acceptable and justifiable”, this is no longer the case, given what we now know about the disease.


People at low risk from the virus should be exposed to it so they can develop herd immunity and reduce the risk to vulnerable groups, according to Dr Martin Feeley, clinical director of the Dublin Midlands Hospital Group.

“That is what is happening and yet the policy seems to be to prevent it,” he says. “This should have been allowed to happen during the summer months before the annual flu season, to reduce the workload on the health service during winter months.”

Covid-19 is “profoundly different” from the Spanish flu pandemic of a century ago, he maintains, saying that that was “an indiscriminate killer” that largely targeted the young.

"Experience has taught us that at-risk and vulnerable individuals are identifiable with remarkable accuracy; and protective measures, hygiene, masks, social distancing and cocooning are effective.”

The presence of a “chronic illness” is the “all-important factor” in determining a person’s Covid-19 risk, he points out. “You can identify with amazing accuracy who is at risk, as with no other disease.”

“The best-kept secret regarding Covid-19 is the vulnerability of individuals who are overweight,” he asserts.

Fully agree with this. There's not too many on this forum in the 17-30 age category.
They are the ones who should be getting exposure now to build herd immunity and protect the vulnerable later when things get bad at the peak of the flu season.
But yet they're told they can't even go to meet their friends at a local club game, can't meet up in college, no pubs or nightclubs and are admonished like criminals if they dare to party in a house!
All these things young people are being told not to do are actually what is required to reduce the impact of CV19 at a population level.
As for the social impacts on that generation, they're being driven deeper into the rabbit hole of the smartphone and all the I'll health that goes with that.
And as the doctor above said - you can't postpone youth.

NcdJd

VIrologist on the the Brendan O'Connor show commenting on the doctor talking about we should have allowed herd immunity. He said that if we went with herd immunity back in March there would have been 40000 deaths in Ireland. UK, States and Brazil bares this out. He also said coronavirus is 15 times more lethal than the flu and that herd immunity does not work for this.

As far as I'm concerned that doctor was very irresponsible in writing that piece and just dilutes further the health message of wearing masks and being careful in your day to day activities.

yosemitesam1

NcdJd wrote: »

VIrologist on the the Brendan O'Connor show commenting on the doctor talking about we should have allowed herd immunity. He said that if we went with herd immunity back in March there would have been 40000 deaths in Ireland. UK, States and Brazil bares this out. He also said coronavirus is 15 times more lethal than the flu and that herd immunity does not work for this.

As far as I'm concerned that doctor was very irresponsible in writing that piece and just dilutes further the health message of wearing masks and being careful in your day to day activities.

That virologist is in the wrong. There's no way we would have hit 40,000 deaths, US, UK and Brazil have been nowhere near that badly effected. Sweden also has only had a tiny fraction of predicted deaths.

Where is the evidence herd immunity can't work? There is none. Just like there is no evidence that vaccinating the fit and healthy will be able to prevent vaccinated people spreading to the vulnerable parts of society who will have little to gain from the vaccine

NcdJd

Plenty if people out there getting on with their day to day business and just doing the basics, wearing a mask and keeping your distance.

Herd Immunity is basically throwing in the towel on fighting the disease and accepting the fact that a percentage of people will die who can't fight it but its alright as it's for the common good. I find that idea abhorrent. And in a modern world with the big advancements of looking after eople and treating diseases very odd and cruel.

Water John

One cannot look back at March with hindsight, that's disingenous. The only guidance available was it was about 5 times more lethal than the flu, ask Trump.
So, with the experience of 1919, drastic measures were called for. I remember trying to get a handle on it at the time and coming up with an est of 25k deaths, based on what we knew. To propose herd immunity at that time would have been grossly irresponsible.
Doing any analysis at this time is different and needs to take into account what we have learned. It's a debate I haven't fully decided on myself but as always would be cautious. Maybe I being older and an introvert, I support the present line. If people dampen the activity down a little, wash the hands, keep the distance, wear a mask. Older people and those at risk take full precautions then the virus would operate at a low level.
Attention should also turn to the waiting lists and those acted on as part of the overall measures.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Israel is reimposing a 3 week lockdown to reduce the spread of Covid19.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1305225179564519424?s=19

greysides

(

NcdJd wrote: »

VIrologist on the the Brendan O'Connor show commenting on the doctor talking about we should have allowed herd immunity. He said that if we went with herd immunity back in March there would have been 40000 deaths in Ireland. UK, States and Brazil bares this out. He also said coronavirus is 15 times more lethal than the flu and that herd immunity does not work for this.

As far as I'm concerned that doctor was very irresponsible in writing that piece and just dilutes further the health message of wearing masks and being careful in your day to day activities.

Report on that interview:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/this-is-not-february-consultant-says-covid-19-can-be-contained-if-we-do-the-right-things-1.4353755?mode=amp

Extracts:

Jack Lambert of the Mater hospital in Dublin speaking to The Irish Times’s Confronting Coronavirus podcast in April.

Coronavirus in Ireland can be contained if people “do all the right things” and take responsibility for their actions, an infectious diseases consultant has said.

Prof Jack Lambert said “we should upscale our efforts to get through the next two years in the hope that virus loses virulence or a vaccine comes along”.

He said they were seeing “so few people in the hospital now. We used to have 20 in ICU (intensive care units) and 50 a day admitted with Covid”.

“In the last week we’ve had a couple admitted with Covid and a couple in ICU so the numbers are way down so it is not circulating in Ireland the way it was in February.”

He said they needed to “plan forward with an action plan, not a reaction plan”.

Ireland has a very low mortality, half the rate of the UK, he added.

Prof Lambert said herd immunity was a “bad idea” because instead of 2,000 deaths in Ireland there would have been 40,000 deaths.

He said based on statistics Covid-19 is 15 times more lethal than influenza and herd immunity is not a solution.

“If we allow herd immunity we are going to have thousands of people with post Covid complications” which he said included many people not getting back to work for months.

The lockdown was the right decision in the first two months but Covid-19 has been quiet in hospitals since May but he said they had not planned.

He said Ireland was now in a “post-Covid freeze” and he believe the summer had been wasted when a plan should have been put in place, including supports for aviation, airlines, pubs and other businesses.

yosemitesam1

Buford T. Justice XIX wrote: »

Israel is reimposing a 3 week lockdown to reduce the spread of Covid19.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1305225179564519424?s=19

Utter madness...

jaymla627

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Utter madness...

Will be a good case study for Pascal and the boys of how to commit economic suicide, hard to feel sorry for a country that has zero issue with bombing schools and hospitals full of women and children

NcdJd

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Utter madness...

Have to agree with ya on this one Sam. Whatever about lockdowns at the start of this I would have thought governments around the world would have fine tuned it a bit better than big bangs.

yosemitesam1

jaymla627 wrote: »

Will be a good case study for Pascal and the boys of how to commit economic suicide, hard to feel sorry for a country that has zero issue with bombing schools and hospitals full of women and children

How lockdown ever came to be the go to tool for covid just doesn't make sense.
How long central banks can keep funding all of this without causing serious issues in inflation etc could be one of the big factors in deciding when it all ends...

France is finding just over half of new infections have zero symptoms, Spain is 70%.
How many actually get more than cold symptoms let alone flu symptoms