Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

ZX7R

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Seems to be the more virulent like the Hubei/Iran strain.

It's a dreadful situation in Italy.

same strain as in the cases in ireland

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235377077605617667

cnocbui

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21156607/how-did-the-coronavirus-get-started-china-wuhan-lab


how we know the virus came from nature.

I don't think it helps China to dispel such rumours when they go and close the lab that sequenced the virus genome and then shred it with the West.

Turtwig

caveat emptor wrote: »

There's some disturbing evidence around the whole takin a ****e with this virus.

https://twitter.com/robin_densford/status/1226245726038056963?s=20

Please pleas stop posting this guys tweets. The virus is too dense to be airborne. It can be transmitted through sneezes or coughs but the range is limited. It cannot fly through the air in vapor.

This is a serious situation. Your sensationalist hysteria is not helping.

tuxy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Seems to be the more virulent like the Hubei/Iran strain.

It's a dreadful situation in Italy.

Has it been confirmed that the virus has mutated?

digitaldr

wheresthebeef wrote: »

Yeah so no change there then. How do they expect to detect community transmission if they wont test symptomatic people in the community. I cant help but feel this is an attempt to keep confirmed case numbers low to buy them more time to ready the Health Service etc...

I don't know the exact figure but it's out there somewhere but I think around 300 people who met the suspected case definition have been tested in Ireland so far with 6 positive results and 4 of those were a family cluster. Not exactly a high positivity rate. Community testing would mean that anyone with a cough or fever or difficulty breathing would qualify for a test - an enormous number of people so the positivity rate would be tiny. Testing is not exactly simple - a healthcare professional with the proper PPE training has to take the swab which has to transported in the appropriate container to the NVRL, PCR test is then done and the results have to be communicated to the patient.

The best way to look for community spread is by sentinel testing which is already done for influenza and I think will be starting soon (it may already have?) for COVID-19.

Here's what's involved in taking off ppe

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUo5O1JmLH0

owlbethere

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From Guardian live blog

God, they had a terrible time with fires and heavy smog. Now this virus can damage the lungs ☹️.

fritzelly

cnocbui wrote: »

This proof enough for you?

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

Point of the twitter post is the new virus - it's tag laden views

Here's one for you - it lasts less than 5 mins on paper at 10 degrees (last I checked paper is an inanimate object) - same report

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/sa_nightingale/status/1235376710331363334

Yeh see Turkey is potentially another ticking bomb. The country must be riddled yet no cases.

Erdogan does not want bad news made public.

Lashes28

tuxy wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that the virus has mutated?

There seems to be two different types

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

Kermit.de.frog

tuxy wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that the virus has mutated?

https://fortune.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-mutating-second-strain-covid-19-wuhan-china/

tuxy

Lashes28 wrote: »

There seems to be two different types

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

If that's the case it really complicates things

spookwoman

tuxy wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that the virus has mutated?

2 strains

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/03/04/discovery-of-2-strains-of-covid-19-coronavirus-hints-at-how-it-evolved/#15bd788c7094

Lashes28

tuxy wrote: »

If that's the case it really complicates things

Someone commented earlier that you can have the two strains at once but I'm not sure how true that is.

owlbethere

What does mutation mean?

ArchXStanton

"On Wednesday Italian authorities reported around 1,300 patients were hospitalised because of the virus with around 300 in intensive care."

https://www.thelocal.it/20200302/should-you-be-concerned-about-the-coronavirus-in-italy

If we start getting numbers like Italy, we're b*loxed

wakka12

2500 cases today in 46 countries, 24 countries recorded more than 5 new cases

fritzelly

owlbethere wrote: »

What does mutation mean?

Spanish flu mutated and came back to kill us

Generally viruses mutate to a weaker strain making them more persistent - better survivability in its host
If they mutate to a worse strain they normally incapacitate/kill their hosts faster than they can spread themselves

Kermit.de.frog

3rd case in New Zealand. This time related to someone who had traveled via Iran.

In New Zealand, the third person infected with coronavirus is a man 40s lives in Auckland. Close family members of his have recently returned from Iran.

“This third case of COVID-19 is classified as what we suspect is a case of family transmission. There is what appears to be a clear link with travel to Iran by a close family member,” the Ministry of Health said.

The man is now at home in self-isolation as he doesn’t require hospital care, nor does anyone else in the family home, who are self-isolating with him.

skimpydoo

ArchXStanton wrote: »

"On Wednesday Italian authorities reported around 1,300 patients were hospitalised because of the virus with around 300 in intensive care."

https://www.thelocal.it/20200302/should-you-be-concerned-about-the-coronavirus-in-italy

If we start getting numbers like Italy, we're b*loxed

I think we will, just wait and see how many new cases we have by Friday evening.

SafeSurfer

The Second Coning
by William Butler Yeats



Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

caveat emptor

Turtwig wrote: »

Please pleas stop posting this guys tweets. The virus is too dense to be airborne. It can be transmitted through sneezes or coughs but the range is limited. It cannot fly through the air in vapor.

This is a serious situation. Your sensationalist hysteria is not helping.

I'm fully aware it's serious. Don't bury your head in the sand or do. I don't give a .... Why do you think I'm posting here. "It'll be grand" is easy to say. Reading a scientific journal is not. Get real.

Here's the link. Seriously though. You please stop posting and learn how to click on links and read, in that order.

The journal of New England Medicine. Probably better than randomer on forum saying viruses are dense but I've no proof of this. Use your judgement.

Evidence of Airborne Transmission of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Virus


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa032867

For those who can't click on links and read. Just read.
METHODS
We determined the distribution of the initial 187 cases of SARS in the Amoy Gardens housing complex in 2003 according to the date of onset and location of residence. We then studied the association between the location (building, floor, and direction the apartment unit faced) and the probability of infection using logistic regression. The spread of the airborne, virus-laden aerosols generated by the index patient was modeled with the use of airflow-dynamics studies, including studies performed with the use of computational fluid-dynamics and multizone modeling.
RESULTS
The curves of the epidemic suggested a common source of the outbreak. All but 5 patients lived in seven buildings (A to G), and the index patient and more than half the other patients with SARS (99 patients) lived in building E. Residents of the floors at the middle and upper levels in building E were at a significantly higher risk than residents on lower floors; this finding is consistent with a rising plume of contaminated warm air in the air shaft generated from a middle-level apartment unit. The risks for the different units matched the virus concentrations predicted with the use of multizone modeling. The distribution of risk in buildings B, C, and D corresponded well with the three-dimensional spread of virus-laden aerosols predicted with the use of computational fluid-dynamics modeling.
CONCLUSIONS
Airborne spread of the virus appears to explain this large community outbreak of SARS, and future efforts at prevention and control must take into consideration the potential for airborne spread of this virus.

NIMAN

ArchXStanton wrote: »

"On Wednesday Italian authorities reported around 1,300 patients were hospitalised because of the virus with around 300 in intensive care."

https://www.thelocal.it/20200302/should-you-be-concerned-about-the-coronavirus-in-italy

If we start getting numbers like Italy, we're b*loxed

How come Italy has seen such huge growth in numbers, and deaths, so quickly?

cnocbui

Turtwig wrote: »

Please pleas stop posting this guys tweets. The virus is too dense to be airborne. It can be transmitted through sneezes or coughs but the range is limited. It cannot fly through the air in vapor.

This is a serious situation. Your sensationalist hysteria is not helping.

Please provide a source for your claim the virus is too dense to be airborne.

How the virus travels in the air

Donald Milton, MD, a professor of environmental health at the University of Maryland, helped prove via the use of his Gesundheit machine that influenza could be spread via aerosol transmission. He said he is in contact with colleagues in Singapore who are attempting to study the transmission of the COVID-19 viruses, which are often called nCoV, for novel coronavirus.

Though Chinese officials said earlier this week that they believe the coronavirus is transmitted only via droplets, implying they do not believe airborne or contact transmission plays a role, Milton said that statement is likely rooted in fear, not science.

"To me this sounds like someone trying to deal with panic, because people panic when they hear airborne transmission and long-distance transmission," he said. He said there has been scientific evidence of aerosol transmission of MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus), so it is likely possible for this novel coronavirus, as well.

Milton cautions that the difference between aerosol and droplet transmission is largely in name only. Respiratory droplets, emitted with a sneeze or a cough, are commonly thought to land within 6 feet of patients and are too large to be buoyant on air currents. Respiratory aerosols are droplets too, Milton said, but smaller and light enough to travel farther.

"You cannot tell the difference epidemiologically between something aerosol transmitted by weak sources and large droplet spray," said Milton. "They behave so similar, it's very hard to pick up the difference."

He said he suspects the capability of long-distance transmission with COVID-19 will be connected to source strength, or how symptomatic a person is.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/unmasked-experts-explain-necessary-respiratory-protection-covid-19

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'm fully aware it's serious. Don't bury your head in the sand or do. I don't give a .... Why do you think I'm posting here. "It'll be grand" is easy to say. Reading a scientific journal is not. Get real.

Why do you keep posting this guys tweets when all the info he is using is nothing to do with this strain of virus

Are you Eric?

cnocbui

tuxy wrote: »

Has it been confirmed that the virus has mutated?

Yes. Chinese Scientists have identified two strains: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html

NIMAN

cameramonkey wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/29/to-hell-and-back-my-three-weeks-suffering-from-coronavirus

Perhaps that guy was a bit of a drama queen?

It was then that I realised I needed some spiritual support or maybe I couldn’t make it. So I watched my favourite anime show and seeing their normal, happy lives, I thought I may have to say goodbye to this life forever. But watching the show, the heroine had troubles in the first half, but she finally made it and succeeded in her career.

I'm sure the effects are different for everyone thats got it, maybe he had it bad!

owlbethere

fritzelly wrote: »

Spanish flu mutated and came back to kill us

Generally viruses mutate to a weaker strain making them more persistent - better survivability in its host
If they mutate to a worse strain they normally incapacitate/kill their hosts faster than they can spread themselves

Sh1t

tuxy

I've got the message now, I appreciate all the links to sources.

Kermit.de.frog

Health Service Executive chief executive Paul Reid has warned of a “potentially unprecedented” situation for the health service, as Ireland’s first cluster of coronavirus cases was confirmed last night.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/cluster-of-coronavirus-cases-in-west-brings-state-total-to-six-1.4193134?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Fcluster-of-coronavirus-cases-in-west-brings-state-total-to-six-1.4193134