General British politics discussion thread

ArmaniJeanss

Great result for the LibDems, but ultimately they are a wee bit of an irrelevance in a GE - they don't have the money or the activists to campaign seriously in much more than around 30 seats. They currently have 12 seats after this by-election, so they'll have to be very selective in their targeting.

In order for the Tories to be in any actual danger, we'd need to see a very noticeable resurgence in the Labour vote in some of the urban by-elections over the next 18 months.

Joe_ Public

Peregrinus wrote: »

I have to disagree. This isn't a case of tactical voting. Tactical voting is where opponents of the incumbent party for the opposition party most likely to defeat the incumbents, even if it's not the party they prefer. So, Labour supporters voting Lib Dem, or vice versa, in order to oust the Tories.

But what we have here is Tory voters voting Lib Dem in order to oust the Tories. That's not tactical voting; that's (previous) Tory voters turning against the party.

There was also tactical voting going in - Labour's vote slumped to nearly nothing. That could be previous Labour supporters disillusioned by Labour under Starmer, or it could be current Labour supporters voting Lib Dem to defeat the Tories, or (probably) a bit of both. But, whatever the scale of tactical voting, it didn't affect the outcome. On the figures, even if no Labour supporters had switched to Lib Dem, the Lib Dems would have won this purely on the backs of former Tories switching to Lib Dem.

This result is not an example of tactical voting; it's an example of Tory disaffection.

Not being a result of tactical voting is precisely what I stated, as in "not borne out I don't think".

Larbre34

They have three years to build a serious campaign, around a progressive youth vote and a huge disaffected anti-brexit cohort (by which time Brexit will have caused untold damage)

100 seats should be a hard target for them.

ArmaniJeanss

And on that note (by-elections Labour need to perform in), Batley and Spen is up next on the 1st July.
A West Yorkshire Labour seat since 1997 but has generally been tight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s
Sitting MP Tracey Brabin won a mayoral contest and therefore had to resign the seat.

Seems to be a straight Lab v Con head to head with all other candidates priced at 100/1.
To my mind it's one Labour need to hold, preferably with a margin no less than that of 2019. However the current odds are 4/9 Con, 9/4 Labour, giving the Tories a ~70% chance of winning.

I don't much about the candidates (local, parachuted in, Remainers/Brexiteers, etc) or what the key voting factors will be.
I'll let poster JoePublic research that for us!

Joe_ Public

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

And on that note (by-elections Labour need to perform in), Batley and Spen is up next on the 1st July.
A Labour seat since 1997 but has generally been tight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2020s
Sitting MP Tracey Brabin won a mayoral contest and therefore had to resign the seat.

Seems to be a straight Lab v Con head to head with all other candidates priced at 100/1.
To my mind it's one Labour need to hold, preferably with a margin no less than that of 2019. However the current odds are 4/9 Con, 9/4 Labour, giving the Tories a ~70% chance of winning.

I don't much about the candidates (local, parachuted in, Remainers/Brexiteers, etc) or what the key voting factors will be.
I'll let poster JoePublic research that for us!

I'll get on the job right away AJ! The interesting thing i suppose is Labour have the sister of Jo Cox as candidate which seems an ok thing, she's local, knows the people and comes across well. But odds seem to be against get, there's quite a big Muslim vote there and doesn't appear to enamoured of the party at the moment. Obviously could be other factors and dangerous to predict too confidently, as we've just seen. Tories definitely strong favourites I think, though I haven't looked at the odds tbh!

Sam Russell

I find it strange that neither BBC News nor the Guardian carry the by election result in their headline online reports.

Is there a reason that this story is deeply buried?

Snickers Man

Snickers Man wrote: »

I think the middle classes should ditch the Labour Party. That doesn't mean they should become conservative; far from it. But they should realise that they now have little in common with the identity group that insists on calling itself Working Class. And they should lose their inhibitions about saying goodbye.



I think ...[many self styled 'working class people'] ...patronise and belittle the true working class. The bulk of middle class labour should move on and cease to pretend that it has anything to do with their twisted vision.

Snickers Man wrote: »

A huge section of the middle class is trapped in a Labour/Conservative dichotomy which produces nothing but frustration. Many middle class Labourites were opposed to Corbyn but not prepared to vote Tory; many middle class Tories were supportive of remaining in the EU but wouldn't vote against their "own" party. There is a huge commonality of opinion between the adjacent wings of either party's support that is crying out to be given a voice.

Britain is in a period of political autism: people feel strongly about various matters but can't articulate them in a satisfactory manner. This is exacerbated by the FPTP system ....

Proportional systems, such as ours, see parties rise and fall in prominence and then go out of business altogether ....

Paradigm shifts in British politics are much less frequent but they do occur. Typically once in a hundred years. The first Labour government was in 1924, nearly 100 years ago. Just saying.

I'm just going to leave this here. Chesham and Amersham byelection produces shock victory for Liberal Democrats.
One swallow does not a summer make and yes, by-elections often throw up results not replicated in General Elections but when you compare recent council election results and the huge swing to the Lib Dems they revealed.........

Could we be seeing a once in a century paradigm shift in British Politics? Or put another way could this be the once in a century paradigm shift that tends to happen in British politics as a matter of course?

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

I find it strange that neither BBC News nor the Guardian carry the by ellection result in their headline online reports.

Is there a reason that this story is deeply buried?

Its the big "front page" story on the Guardian website and has been all morning. First thing you see when you go on the site. The Guardian has US, international and AUS editions too so you probably got one of those when you googled

Its also the main story on the BBCs UK section

Strazdas

Snickers Man wrote: »

I'm just going to leave this here. Chesham and Amersham byelection produces shock victory for Liberal Democrats.
One swallow does not a summer make and yes, by-elections often throw up results not replicated in General Elections but when you compare recent council election results and the huge swing to the Lib Dems they revealed.........

Could we be seeing a once in a century paradigm shift in British Politics? Or put another way could this be the once in a century paradigm shift that tends to happen in British politics as a matter of course?

First clear sign that the "vaccine bounce" is wearing off. Remember how jingoistic the English press were three or four months ago, high fiving each other and saying "Boris can do no wrong", him surging in the polls etc. We're now in June and the Tories have crashed to a heavy and humiliating by-election defeat.

Snickers Man

Joe_ Public wrote: »

there's quite a big Muslim vote there and doesn't appear to enamoured of the party at the moment. !

George Galloway is running and he will probably hoover up the Muslim vote as he tends to do.

Galloway is like Bertie Bots Every Flavour Beans (from Harry Potter if you've forgotten the reference) He's right on some things and very wrong on others.

For me he was/is right about:
The Invasion of Iraq
Israel/Palestine (generally)
and..er, that's it.

He's utterly wrong about:
Brexit
Scottish Independence
The Soviet Union
The relative importance of "Wokeness" in society

And I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him. He has the hallmark of the Dick Head that transcends class, creed, nationality and political alignment: he wears a hat indoors!

But he will take votes away from Labour.

pixelburp

breezy1985 wrote: »

Its the big "front page" story on the Guardian website and has been all morning. First thing you see when you go on the site

Its also the main story on the BBCs UK section

It's not on the international site for The Guardian so could be the difference. I certainly don't see it front and centre on that one

Joe_ Public

There definitely seemed to be a lack of coverage of the by election in the lead up, i mean i have to admit it caught me completely off guard, had forgotten about it. Just checked Wednesday and Thursday guardian hard copies and there's not a single mention of it. Tories were 1/16 to win it, so possibly they considered it a done deal and not worth much coverage. Batley and Spen has generally been receiving a lot more.

Sam Russell

Snickers Man wrote: »

I'm just going to leave this here. Chesham and Amersham byelection produces shock victory for Liberal Democrats.
One swallow does not a summer make and yes, by-elections often throw up results not replicated in General Elections but when you compare recent council election results and the huge swing to the Lib Dems they revealed.........

Could we be seeing a once in a century paradigm shift in British Politics? Or put another way could this be the once in a century paradigm shift that tends to happen in British politics as a matter of course?

There appears to be, in the Tory shires, an unwillingness for habitual Tory voters to vote Labour and see the LibDems as an OK party to vote for rather than Tory. Now within London that does not apply, and normally, in the Red Wall, voting Tory would be considered treason by Labour voters.

Things are changing.

Capt'n Midnight

Peregrinus wrote: »

Obviously there's tactical voting going on here - the Lib Dems gained one vote from Labour for every two votes they gained from the Tories, but the scale of the victory is such that, even if the Lib Dems hadn't gained any votes at all from Labour, they would still have beaten the Tories. This loss is due to large-scale Tory disaffection.

Labour lost their deposit.



Chesham and Amersham was formed from bits of constituencies that were Blue going back ages.

Joe_ Public

Snickers Man wrote: »

George Galloway is running and he will probably hoover up the Muslim vote as he tends to do.

Galloway is like Bertie Bots Every Flavour Beans (from Harry Potter if you've forgotten the reference) He's right on some things and very wrong on others.

For me he was/is right about:
The Invasion of Iraq
Israel/Palestine (generally)
and..er, that's it.

He's utterly wrong about:
Brexit
Scottish Independence
The Soviet Union
The relative importance of "Wokeness" in society

And I wouldn't trust him as far as I could throw him. He has the hallmark of the Dick Head that transcends class, creed, nationality and political alignment: he wears a hat indoors!

But he will take votes away from Labour.

He will surely swing it i would think and his whole raison d'etre for running is purely to sink labour. He may take tory votes too but yes, he traditionally does well with muslim communities, as borne out in Bradford and elsewhere, so it's odds on he will take a lot more from Labour and their majority is only a little over 3k. You never know, but really does seem like Labour are goosed there, keeping it close may well be as good as it can get.

Strazdas

There were already signs to watch that the 'Blue Wall' in the south of England was in some trouble.

This is fascinating to watch. Has Johnson and the Brexit govt made the most spectacular miscalculation? Concentrating on the Red Wall seats in the north of England (with an eye on winning the next GE) and totally failing to notice things were going pear shaped in the Tory heartlands?

PommieBast

Sam Russell wrote: »

There appears to be, in the Tory shires, an unwillingness for habitual Tory voters to vote Labour and see the LibDems as an OK party to vote for rather than Tory. Now within London that does not apply, and normally, in the Red Wall, voting Tory would be considered treason by Labour voters.

If the LibDems unashamedly model themselves after the German FDP they could easily take a lot of seats in this area, but I very much doubt they have the stomach for that.

PommieBast

Joe_ Public wrote: »

He will surely swing it i would think and his whole raison d'etre for running is purely to sink labour. He may take tory votes too but yes, he traditionally does well with muslim communities, as borne out in Bradford and elsewhere, so it's odds on he will take a lot more from Labour and their majority is only a little over 3k.

He is good at gaining such seats but from memory he invariably loses them when his constituents find out how useless he is as a local MP.

PommieBast

Strazdas wrote: »

There were already signs to watch that the 'Blue Wall' in the south of England was in some trouble.

This is fascinating to watch. Has Johnson and the Brexit govt made the most spectacular miscalculation? Concentrating on the Red Wall seats in the north of England (with an eye on winning the next GE) and totally failing to notice things were going pear shaped in the Tory heartlands?

Southern Conservative MPs were worried about it even before the last general.

Joe_ Public

PommieBast wrote: »

He is good at gaining such seats but from memory he invariably loses them when his constituents find out how useless he is as a local MP.

Galloway isn't going to win but the better he does, the more likely labour is to lose. Haven't seen any polls but Palestine appears to be an important issue, given the sizeable Muslim vote, and Galloway could well clean up there.

Strazdas

PommieBast wrote: »

Southern Conservative MPs were worried about it even before the last general.

An extremely risky strategy. The Red Wall voters feel no particular affiliation to the Conservative Party and could just as quickly abandon them - Johnson is playing with fire at the moment.

blackwhite

Sam Russell wrote: »

I find it strange that neither BBC News nor the Guardian carry the by election result in their headline online reports.

Is there a reason that this story is deeply buried?

It was top story on BBC News when I looked at it around 11 this morning.

Right now it's appearing as the 2nd story on landing page

Lemming

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Galloway isn't going to win but the better he does, the more likely labour is to lose. Haven't seen any polls but Palestine appears to be an important issue, given the sizeable Muslim vote, and Galloway could well clean up there.

Anecdotally, over the last couple of weeks I have noticed more and more cars around Sheffield - not exactly an area of large Muslim demographics compared with the likes of Birmingham or Bradford - sporting Palestinian flag/stripes, ostensibly running down one side of the bonnet. So there clearly is some form of awareness/campaign going on right now and I dare say it'll be even more overt in areas with much larger Muslim communities.

Strazdas wrote: »

An extremely risky strategy. The Red Wall voters feel no particular affiliation to the Conservative Party and could just as quickly abandon them - Johnson is playing with fire at the moment.

The tory performance in the red wall constituencies was in part a classic case of a short-sighted protest vote against the incumbent whilst slicing off ones own face. Many Red wall voters will have voted Tory out of a "it can't be any worse right?" mindset, so when they don't see improvements in their day-to-day lives, they'll be well shot of the Tories considering the lack of love for the party in the North of England in general.

20silkcut

Just saw this clip of English farmers on YouTube bemoaning the Australian deal.

https://youtu.be/W-fVv6QncNo

I can’t understand how brexit is not being attacked within Britain as unpatriotic.
There is enough material there between disgruntled fishermen and farmers and clips of smug commentary in Canberra for the message to be sold that Brexit is very anti - British and unpatriotic.
It’s incredible how the anti - brexit lobby have completely given up the patriotic ground to brexiteers who could easily now be cast as highly unpatriotic.

ancapailldorcha

20silkcut wrote: »

Just saw a clip of English farmers on YouTube bemoaning the Australian deal.

I can’t understand how brexit is not being attacked within Britain as unpatriotic.
There is enough material there between disgruntled fishermen and farmers and clips of smug commentary in Canberra for the message to be sold that Brexit is very anti - British and unpatriotic.
It’s incredible how the anti - brexit lobby have completely given up the patriotic ground to brexiteers who could easily now be cast as highly unpatriotic.

Because the right in this country have successfully framed Patriotism and Civic Nationalism as right wing values. Of couse, the corrollary is that there's now no incentive for those on the left to embrace them and the well is poisoned all for a short term gain for a Conservative party with no ideas.

The longer term result is an adverserial debate on racism, colonialism and empire when precisely the opposite is needed as these topics are inherently nuanced. Then conservatives start shrilling decrying those of the left as being unpatriotic which said individuals then wear as a badge of honour thinking that they're doing something right. Instead of making Britain better, they're making it worse while shoring up their base.

Strazdas

Lemming wrote: »

The tory performance in the red wall constituencies was in part a classic case of a short-sighted protest vote against the incumbent whilst slicing off ones own face. Many Red wall voters will have voted Tory out of a "it can't be any worse right?" mindset, so when they don't see improvements in their day-to-day lives, they'll be well shot of the Tories considering the lack of love for the party in the North of England in general.

Reading some of the online commentary from the UK today, the Tories might be making serious strategic blunders. By trying to turn the party into UKIP and pitching it at xenophobic types in the north of England, they could well also be alienating their traditional base (especially as Brexit has already happened.....where is the big 'win' for the electorate in having the EU as an enemy?).

The culture war stuff might be blowing up on them too. A party that relies on symbols and flags and propaganda stunts clearly doesn't have too much to offer.

Strazdas

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Because the right in this country have successfully framed Patriotism and Civic Nationalism as right wing values. Of couse, the corrollary is that there's now no incentive for those on the left to embrace them and the well is poisoned all for a short term gain for a Conservative party with no ideas.

The longer term result is an adverserial debate on racism, colonialism and empire when precisely the opposite is needed as these topics are inherently nuanced. Then conservatives start shrilling decrying those of the left as being unpatriotic which said individuals then wear as a badge of honour thinking that they're doing something right. Instead of making Britain better, they're making it worse while shoring up their base.

Though there is a glimmer of hope with the by-election result this is not going to plan. The Conservative Party is not UKIP and them thinking that all they and their right wing media pals have to do is generate culture wars to stay in power for decades could be a foolhardy approach.

ancapailldorcha

Strazdas wrote: »

Though there is a glimmer of hope with the by-election result this is not going to plan. The Conservative Party is not UKIP and them thinking that all they and their right wing media pals have to do is generate culture wars to stay in power for decades could be a foolhardy approach.

I don't think the by-election result means anything to be honest. People voting in a by-election might feel a bit gamier than normal. Same in European elections when we enjoyed that privilege. People would vote for smaller parties but when it comes to general elections, it's always going to be one of the big two.

quokula

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I don't think the by-election result means anything to be honest. People voting in a by-election might feel a bit gamier than normal. Same in European elections when we enjoyed that privilege. People would vote for smaller parties but when it comes to general elections, it's always going to be one of the big two.

It was also an extremely localised campaign - the Lib Dems campaigned heavily against the building of high speed rail through the area and also against the building of more houses that might ruin the picturesque views.

Pure NIMBYism in other words, and not exactly a beacon of hope for more progressive citizens to rally around in general.

breezy1985

Strazdas wrote: »

There were already signs to watch that the 'Blue Wall' in the south of England was in some trouble.

This is fascinating to watch. Has Johnson and the Brexit govt made the most spectacular miscalculation? Concentrating on the Red Wall seats in the north of England (with an eye on winning the next GE) and totally failing to notice things were going pear shaped in the Tory heartlands?

It was inevitable that the changing demographics up north would be mirrored down south. The low and middle income voter that used to be factory workers and miners are now office workers in the home counties