General British politics discussion thread

PommieBast

breezy1985 wrote: »

Oh ya the never ending Scottish Labour majority.

This was back in 1999 and it was only really circa-2015 that the bottom fell out of the Labour party. In 2011 a good chunk of the SNP's gain in support came from the LibDems.

hotmail.com

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Prudent isn't something I would use to describe Fianna Fáil or the Tories or even the GOP.

Reputation and reality are seldom aligned.

Politics in America is completely separate from Irish and British. Completely different. You can't compare the Republicans with FF or Tories.

And yes FF and Tories are prudent. They reflect that the public are generally uncomfortable or against radical change.

Changes therefore, come gradually with these parties, the way the public want it.

pixelburp

2014 feels like a lifetime a go, not least in the manner and shape political discourse now takes. Not like the last independence ref wasn't full of acrimony but whenever this next one happens, it'll be a total shítshow with tribalism now existing in default extreme corners.

Sam Russell

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

The combined total of first preference constituency votes for SNP/Greens/Alba is probably the most relevant figure in terms of winning IndyRef#2, rather than exactly how many seats that percentage translates into.

Seems to me that it will remain below 50% (albeit there will be small percentages of Labour & Liberal voters who would vote for independence, and also some Green voters who would vote against).

But I'd still fear that they don't quite have enough to get Independence over the line, especially when the campaign rhetoric hots up.

BBC not giving percentage vote for Scotland whereas they are for Wales. Hmmm - I wonder why.

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

BBC not giving percentage vote for Scotland whereas they are for Wales. Hmmm - I wonder why.

This is only rough maths but if the SNP are winning most constituencies by 10+% and Tories/Labour the same but the SNP hold almost all of the voted for seats then surely they are above 50%

Sam Russell

breezy1985 wrote: »

This is only rough maths but if the SNP are winning most constituencies by 10+% and Tories/Labour the same but the SNP hold almost all of the voted for seats then surely they are above 50%

My question was why are the BBC not giving the figures. Have No 10 instructed them not to give them.

ArmaniJeanss

breezy1985 wrote: »

This is only rough maths but if the SNP are winning most constituencies by 10+% and Tories/Labour the same but the SNP hold almost all of the voted for seats then surely they are above 50%

Latest figure I can see is 47.9% SNP, 0.7% Green.

breezy1985

Sam Russell wrote: »

My question was why are the BBC not giving the figures. Have No 10 instructed them not to give them.

Sorry I meant to post to thread not to your post.

Where are you getting those numbers Jeans?
Site I'm on only has constituency breakdowns and no totals

ArmaniJeanss

breezy1985 wrote: »

Sorry I meant to post to thread not to your post.

Where are you getting those numbers Jeans?
Site I'm on only has constituency breakdowns and no totals

Frustratingly difficult to get figures as SamR says.

I took them from wiki (47.6% for SNP now, and 1.1% for Greens).
As always with wiki, they may or may not be reliable, either through maliciousness or error.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Scottish_Parliament_election

BonnieSituation

Sturgeon just speaking outside Holyrood there. Her ability to speak with such clarity of thought all the time is remarkable. Keeps lobbing the ball back to Johnson every time the media ask a potentially awkward question on independence.

Cal4567

hotmail.com wrote: »

The Tories just able to manoeuvre politically left and right when it suits them, the goal is to stay in office at all costs.

They originally opposed the creation of the NHS but then went on to support it once they seen the public supported it.

They were socially conservative in the 80s and 90s and shifted under Cameron to be more socially liberal, as the public had moved in that direction.

They are now in favour of government spending and government intervention, because that's what the public support.

The Tories are much more practical as a party, than what they're opponents give them credit for. It's why they keep winning elections.

You could say that they have moved to be less ideological whereas Labour has stuck more rigidly to their dogma. Or Labour have sometimes moved, but are usually wrongfooted. The whole area of culture which has pushed aside the left/right historical split is more apparent across the UK, Brexit being a good example. The increase in Scottish nationalism in the guise of the SNP over the last 15 years, have put paid to Labour north of the border. With FPTP, it's hard to see how Labour can get back into Government, unless, and it's a big if, Brexit is such a major mistake and the Tories get blame for this. Another change in focus will probably be on the cards from them in that case.

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

BBC not giving percentage vote for Scotland whereas they are for Wales. Hmmm - I wonder why.

Could be because the count in Wales is finished.

breezy1985

Indy parties only 1 seat off a majority now with plenty of list seats to come

breezy1985

breezy1985 wrote: »

Indy parties only 1 seat off a majority now with plenty of list seats to come

And there it is. 65 seats

hotmail.com

Sir Keir has sacked his Party Chair over the poor election.

His days are numbered.

breezy1985

Watching these list seats come in is reminding me of the postal votes on US election night

Professor Moriarty

hotmail.com wrote: »

Sir Keir has sacked his Party Chair over the poor election.

His days are numbered.

Burnham.

Joe_ Public

hotmail.com wrote: »

Sir Keir has sacked his Party Chair over the poor election.

His days are numbered.

Not surprised there'd be scapegoats but surprised Angela Rayner was the first one. Didnt even wait for the dust to settle.

O'Neill

Rumours of Lisa Nandy being demoted:eek:

https://twitter.com/lmharpin/status/1391100732380745732?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1391100732380745732%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Joe_ Public

What a terrible look. You've been reminded in no uncertain terms that you've lost touch with working class voters and your very first instinct, your first course of action, is to target the most high profile working class voice in the party for blame and sack her from her role. That can't lead anywhere good surely?

L1011

Douglas Ross needs to resign his MP seat now, so that's two Tory seats awaiting by-elections that they will obviously be expected to win solidly - but Ross's majority was slim and the seat has been SNP for long periods before. That will be quite interesting.

Neil Gray of the SNP also has to, and they'll hold that Westminster seat too (actually I think he already has resigned)

edit: actually it seems that dual mandate is allowed, just nobody does it anymore. Would be very skeevy for Ross to do so, so lets see what happens.

breezy1985

Joe_ Public wrote: »

What a terrible look. You've been reminded in no uncertain terms that you've lost touch with working class voters and your very first instinct, your first course of action, is to target the most high profile working class voice in the party for blame and sack her from her role. That can't lead anywhere good surely?

As big a problem for him I think is the 63+ council seats the Greens have coupled with gains in both London elections. No end of the Labour spectrum seems happy as I assume those Green votes are the Labour left and Corbyn fans walking away

Joe_ Public

breezy1985 wrote: »

As big a problem for him I think is the 63+ council seats the Greens have coupled with gains in both London elections. No end of the Labour spectrum seems happy as I assume those Green votes are the Labour left and Corbyn fans walking away

They're in the process of discovering that there are working class votes to be lost in London and elsewhere too, i believe. Not just in the north. Even places where they've done well, like in manchester is problematic because he'll inevitably see Burnham as a threat. And where they've had good results as in Salford and Preston is chiefly down to left wing activism so i'm wondering if they'll even want to acknowledge that. Quite a bit to unpack there.

A Dub in Glasgo

L1011 wrote: »

Douglas Ross needs to resign his MP seat now, so that's two Tory seats awaiting by-elections that they will obviously be expected to win solidly - but Ross's majority was slim and the seat has been SNP for long periods before. That will be quite interesting.

Neil Gray of the SNP also has to, and they'll hold that Westminster seat too (actually I think he already has resigned)

edit: actually it seems that dual mandate is allowed, just nobody does it anymore. Would be very skeevy for Ross to do so, so lets see what happens.

Ross is triple jobbing - MP, MSP and FIFA assitant referee

The man even decided he was not going to bother stand in one of the Scottish Parliament constituencies, he got in on the list

Neil Gray resigned his MP seat to contest the Scottish Parliament elections

eire4

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Wishful thinking. Can you explain why you think the Tories have a great success and the SNP have not?

I would think that with the 8 Green seats and the 64 for the SNP meaning a solid pro indy majority that while not everything the SNP hoped for it was a good showing and puts them in a good position to push on with the independence referendum.

Itssoeasy

Podge_irl wrote: »

Their vote share is higher, which in a referendum is all that matters.

And not only that but a lot of things are different since that last independence referendum happened. It’s a very different political landscape now than a few years ago. I mean it’s one of the limits of giving Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland degrees of self government over 20 years ago. Scotland won’t except a reduction in their powers as they stand and there’s not a hope of some type of federalist system happening in the UK so independence is the next obvious step up from what they have now.

ancapailldorcha

Mod: Posts by rereg and responses deleted.

Shelga

Gove on Marr- slime in human form! Why do Tories do this thing, clearly taught to them by their media trainers, where they try to confidently announce what the entire electorate want? Ie “the people of Scotland clearly want the focus to be on pandemic recovery, not an independence referendum”- based on what?! Why can’t they have both? 72 out of 129 seats in Holyrood have gone to parties who included a commitment to an independence referendum in their manifesto. The hypocrisy of Gove in just ignoring that, when he interpreted results whatever way it suited his agenda with regards to Brexit.

Plus the way he says “covvid” means I already want to throw my TV out the window, and it’s not even 10am. No more Marr! :pac:

Capt'n Midnight

Shelga wrote: »

Why can’t they have both? 72 out of 129 seats in Holyrood have gone to parties who included a commitment to an independence referendum in their manifesto.

The SNP got 85% of the seats that used the UK national system of FPTP.
Pro rata it would be 552 seats in Westminister (compare it to 564 for Labour and Conservative combined)


That's the only answer needed when replying to any Conservative or Labour noise about not getting a majority



Labour should admit that they have lost Scotland it'll return more Tory seats than theirs for the foreseeable future. Any power sharing with the SNP would be conditional on an indyref. Flash in the pan stuff at best.

Joe_ Public

Had to turn off marr almost as soon as gove started to speak as he'd given the exact same guff to Sophie Ridge not 30 minutes before. At one point he suggested that some people who voted for the SNP - the nationalist party, the explicitly pro independence party running on an explicitly pro independence platform - actually might not support independence at all. He's a politician, perhaps uniquely i would say, who could spend hours arguing that the earth doesn't revolve around the sun with a straight face and never once concede he might be wrong.