Covid-19; Impact on the aviation industry

lintdrummer

kona wrote: »

of which 7.5 billion could go alot further than helping one single airline.

That's for the airline industry as a whole, not just Virgin.

kevinandrew

I believe EU state aid rules have been ever so slightly relaxed or at least given a bit more clarity on how it can be used in response to the outbreak.

https://ec.europa.eu/competition/state_aid/what_is_new/covid_19.html

Fair support can be distributed so long as no single company is favoured. How that works in the real world, I'm not sure but it's probably why the Virgin Atlantic chairman has suggested the entire UK aviation industry requires 7 Billion, not just his own airline.

IE 222

donkey balls wrote: »

This be an interesting one to see how it pans out as govt support for National airlines is prohibited under RU regs, Saying that since 9/11 most EU based airlines have gone totally into private ownership.

EU said they'll relax state aid rules. I don't think it's in anyone's interest to see what would of been healthy profitable airlines going under. I think debt and repayments will be deferred accordingly. Repossessions of 100s of aircraft that nobody else is going to take only causes another major problem for creditors.

kevinandrew

Latvian airline, airBaltic, will suspend its entire operation between March 17 and April 14 as part of Latvia's lockdown. It follows a similar move from LOT Polish Airlines.

x567

Presumably EI and other EU or UK airlines will have no option but to cancel US flights as their crews won’t be able to enter the US on arrival?

greenfield21

https://twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1238953091086548992

Peregrine

x567 wrote: »

Presumably EI and other EU or UK airlines will have no option but to cancel US flights as their crews won’t be able to enter the US on arrival?

It doesn't apply to crew

Tenger

I was working in an airline 19 years ago and would concur. Definitely seems far more drastic.

In the long term it may be stabilised within 6 months but certainly the immediate impact is shocking.

Locker10a

Tenger wrote: »

I was working in an airline 19 years ago and would concur. Definitely seems far more drastic.

In the long term it may be stabilised within 6 months but certainly the immediate impact is shocking.

It’s unprecedented, I can see airlines parking up the majority of their fleet for a month or more

donkey balls

As I've mentioned in other posts I no longer work in the industry but still have mates from flight crew to ops working here and abroad.
I kinda of miss the buzz being around the ramp etc but not the mad hours, I really hope for all the lads here and abroad that this situation we find ourselves in at present passes by real quick.

Van.Bosch

Air Baltic grounding entire fleet

kevinandrew

Next up, American Airlines...

American will slash its long haul network by 75% through May 6 with just three routes remaining.

DFW->LHR (daily)
MIA->LHR (daily)
DFW->NRT (3 times weekly)

http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/2020/American-Airlines-Announces-Additional-Schedule-Changes-in-Response-to-Customer-Demand-Related-to-COVID-19-031420-OPS-DIS-03/default.aspx

HalfBlues

This travel ban doesn't it mean travel to the US is off or both ways as I'm in the US and not sure if it means I'm up ****s creek lol

Cosmo Kramer

HalfBlues wrote: »

This travel ban doesn't it mean travel to the US is off or both ways as I'm in the US and not sure if it means I'm up ****s creek lol

You won't be banned from leaving the US. However there will be a massive reduction in transatlantic flights after this weekend, so if you want to get out of the country I'd suggest getting your plans rearranged as soon as you can.

Gael23

If there one positive for travelers it’s very cheap fares when this is over as carriers will want quick cash flow

easypazz

Gael23 wrote: »

If there one positive for travelers it’s very cheap fares when this is over as carriers will want quick cash flow

You would have to question the idea of aviation the way it was.

In future will there be health screening on arrival at all airports?

Higher fares, more delays, less mass transit.

Who knows.

billy few mates

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

Virgin Atlantic now telling the U.K. government that the airline industry needs 7.5 Billion in aid. The first of many such requests in the coming days.

Interesting to see what happens here with EI and FR.

To be honest I would much rather the money went back into the provision of health services and homes than a bailout for the aviation industry. Maybe this crisis will be the cull that the aviation industry needs to benefit society as a whole rather than just the pockets of the shareholders.
Do we really need a number of low cost airlines with fleets of 400+ aircraft if their sole raison d'etre is to allow people to fly around Europe and the globe for cheaper than the cost of the taxi to the airport or the car parking if they drove there..?
Part of the reason this virus spread so easily is because it's so easy to travel, and that's because flying is so cheap and easy.
One benefit of this crisis is that it will show employers that home working might actually be the way forward and when frequent travellers (like myself) discover alternative methods of getting the job done without actually having to travel we'll start doing that more and more.
I think any bailout should go towards preventing this happening again and rebuilding society first, the aviation industry will rebuild itself to cater for actual demand rather than just ramping up and trying to create a market to match the capacity.
It's going to be painful but I think it's the right thing to do, and I work in the industry..!

Das Reich

billy few mates wrote: »

To be honest I would much rather the money went back into the provision of health services and homes than a bailout for the aviation industry. Maybe this crisis will be the cull that the aviation industry needs to benefit society as a whole rather than just the pockets of the shareholders.
Do we really need a number of low cost airlines with fleets of 400+ aircraft if their sole raison d'etre is to allow people to fly around Europe and the globe for cheaper than the cost of the taxi to the airport or the car parking if they drove there..?
Part of the reason this virus spread so easily is because it's so easy to travel, and that's because flying is so cheap and easy.
One benefit of this crisis is that it will show employers that home working might actually be the way forward and when frequent travellers (like myself) discover alternative methods of getting the job done without actually having to travel we'll start doing that more and more.
I think any bailout should go towards preventing this happening again and rebuilding society first, the aviation industry will rebuild itself to cater for actual demand rather than just ramping up and trying to create a market to match the capacity.
It's going to be painful but I think it's the right thing to do, and I work in the industry..!

For some people that needs to go home once in a while to see relatives Ryanair is essential. And no, mostly of the jobs can't be doing by home. Construction workers, drivers, factory workers etc... And yes, there is a demand for low cost airlines, 10% or more of EU countries having non national population is a demand. I fly at least 6 times a year with Ryanair and maybe one time there was an empty seat on the plane.

Masala

Their forward bookings EVERYWHERE must be on the floor.....

Will they fly with 50 people on board.. ?.

I reckon we will see them park planes soon and cancel flying for 30 days.

Staff not being paid if not flying.. others will be laid off. Pilots told to take h9idays

Hedge fueling will be a BIG plus to them down the line when they will have to drive business back with €10 fares etc.

They’ll still come out of this with a very limited loss

Irish Steve

If people can't post without abusive language, then don't post. I have just deleted a number of messages that were as a result of an uncivll post.

Yes, times are going to be very hard for a while, and none of us know how this is going to pan out.

There is a very strong chance that this virus will cause the deaths of some site members, so in the meantime, lets all try and maintain some level of civility.

If we can't do that, then there will be bans put in place

billy few mates

Das Reich wrote: »

I fly at least 6 times a year with Ryanair and maybe one time there was an empty seat on the plane.

That's because the market is capacity driven rather than demand driven. All of these airlines flying around with hundreds of thousands of seats to fill at a price point guaranteed to fill them then make up difference through ancillary revenue (coffee, snacks, alcohol and other onboard sales). How many of those people on your flights were there on a whim because they snagged a bargain in a €9.99 seat sale and how many people were there because they really needed to get to that destination..?
The size of the global air fleet should be representative of the actual demand for air travel not so grossly excessive that they have drive the market to match the capacity.

MadYaker

Gael23 wrote: »

If there one positive for travelers it’s very cheap fares when this is over as carriers will want quick cash flow

Who's going to have money for a holiday after this? We could be looking at economic meltdown.

Nibs05

https://www.independent.ie/business/jobs/1000-staff-at-irish-airports-get-redundancy-warning-letters-from-swissport-39043653.html

coolshannagh28

The global financial system will not survive this

Coil Kilcrea

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

The global financial system will not survive this

The financial system is much stronger now than it was in 2008. Short term, government’s will need to intervene with strong fiscal stimulus. We will beat this monster but it will be tough in the short-term for all of us.

coolshannagh28

Coil Kilcrea wrote: »

The financial system is much stronger now than it was in 2008. Short term, government’s will need to intervene with strong fiscal stimulus. We will beat this monster but it will be tough in the short-term for all of us.

There is a school of thought that says that the financial system cannot cope as interest rates are as low as they can go and QE is no longer effective . With the airlines unless there is forebearance many will collapse and that brings us to moral hazard which brings us to debt reset which some economists have predicted.

Coil Kilcrea

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

There is a school of thought that says that the financial system cannot cope as interest rates are as low as they can go and QE is no longer effective . With the airlines unless there is forebearance many will collapse and that brings us to moral hazard which brings us to debt reset which some economists have predicted.

I would agree, QE is monetary policy for the most part and that cannot solve this problem. Government’s will have to spend to support vulnerable businesses and healthcare systems. And they will because they have no choice.

Nermal

billy few mates wrote: »

That's because the market is capacity driven rather than demand driven. All of these airlines flying around with hundreds of thousands of seats to fill at a price point guaranteed to fill them then make up difference through ancillary revenue (coffee, snacks, alcohol and other onboard sales). How many of those people on your flights were there on a whim because they snagged a bargain in a €9.99 seat sale and how many people were there because they really needed to get to that destination..?
The size of the global air fleet should be representative of the actual demand for air travel not so grossly excessive that they have drive the market to match the capacity.

‘Actual demand’? Demand is a function of price. The only judge of who ‘really needed’ to get to a destination is the individual consumer.

I hope the days of €9.99 seat sales continue for ever.

knockon

Tenger wrote: »

I was working in an airline 19 years ago and would concur. Definitely seems far more drastic.

In the long term it may be stabilised within 6 months but certainly the immediate impact is shocking.

I too was in it back then and returned to the industry in SNN last Summer. To see the pain and worry in staffs faces walking through the terminal is easy to see. The uncertainty is awful. Casualties unfortunately will be eminence. Very difficult to see Virgin, Alitalia, Norwegian survive. Swissport, Serviceair all have lots of staff who won’t be working after Monday.

L1011

EI are dropping onboard sales (inlcuding food) on European routes to reduce contact. I would not be massively surprised to never see Sky Shopping return after considering most other airlines are escaping from it.