Storm Jorge : February 29th

Thepillowman

Dictionary definition of forecast is to predict or estimate. Its not 100% accurate. Warnings were issued on best available data. Its easy to say they were wrong after the event. If some people have such a problem with warnings go about your day as normal. Since warnings have come into effect I notice a lot less debris after storms as people check that everything is secure. Using a county system is a lot better in my opinion than splitting them up. Otherwise you will have people on here asking for example (I have to drive from the Tulla road in Ennis orange warning to the Kilrush Road red warning will I be ok).

Gaoth Laidir

The warnings were about right, given the best information at hand in advance of the event. The Red Zone did shrink to a much smaller region than the two counties, but it's easy to be wise the event. The county-based system is a bit silly alright, however only on a map. Reading the supporting text that usually comes with these warnings, the emphasis on strongest winds in coastal parts will always be highlighted. So somone in east Galway will know that the highest end of the quoted winds will apply to coastal areas, with a decrease further inland. I agree that sometimes this supporting text could be written more clearly, and that closing down a whole county based on a red warning issued for just a small part of it is not a way to continue.

moeblogs

Flood-hit South Wales has declared a critical incident after Storm Jorge heralded its arrival with heavy rain and strong winds, as Britain endures its fourth weekend of downpours.

ChikiChiki

Switch over to Dublin v Tyrone to see the raw power of the wind.

Oneiric 3

Someone in east Galway uses their judgement. The warning clearly stated 'exposed areas' and not coastal. Most areas in Co. Galway, being a rural county, are exposed. This red warning was not justified for the greater part of the region. Full stop.

And this is something I said last night, before the storm with the 'best information at hand'.

Mortelaro

Danno wrote: »

Top gust of 43mph/69kmph in South Laois at standard 10m recording height.

Hard to see that being topped looking at the trends over the past few hours:

*

*Live image will auto-update.

Top gust in Arklow, also at standard 10m height on the Davis was 85.3kmh at 520 pm
We actually had a number of much stronger gusts here during last sunday afternoon's squal peaking at 109.4kmh around 245pm

Spanish Eyes

moeblogs wrote: »

Flood-hit South Wales has declared a critical incident after Storm Jorge heralded its arrival with heavy rain and strong winds, as Britain endures its fourth weekend of downpours.

Wales has been thoroughly neglected by the UK. But they voted in favour of Brexit all the same.

Wales is a great place to visit, stunning in fact, but I would not tolerate the low standard of living in many places there due to neglect. Welsh Assembly is a talking shop. Funds come from Westminster. So behave and say nowt.

BarryD2

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The warnings were about right, given the best information at hand in advance of the event. The Red Zone did shrink to a much smaller region than the two counties, but it's easy to be wise the event. The county-based system is a bit silly alright, however only on a map. Reading the supporting text that usually comes with these warnings, the emphasis on strongest winds in coastal parts will always be highlighted.

I'd have no problem in general with the Orange & Red warnings. It was wrong today for the east & southeast but I guess that's because the depression track moved a bit.

The Yellow warnings are quite counter productive though - basically you're advising people in Ireland in winter to bring a raincoat & hat as you might get a bit wet. If you're that stupid, you deserve to get a bit of a soaking and it'll learn you for next time.

EmmetSpiceland

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The colour warning aims to reduce those deaths, but you and that muppet seem to take pleasure in trying to be right.

The “colour warnings” are a load of old tosh. Whatever the parameters for the coding needs to changed.

The “yellow” one has become a complete joke that nobody pays any heed to. We’ve an “orange” one outside right now but it’s not going to stop me, or anyone else, from heading out to get milk.

This wind should be the yellow “warning” so we don’t get these announcements and, unnecessary, news articles every 3, or 4, days. It’s a good strong wind that might blow some paper or loose cardboard onto your windscreen.

Worse than this would be the real “orange” one and the “red” would be used for the most extreme cases.

At least implement these changes for Dublin. It’s fairly standard, at this stage, that the west, and northwest, will be getting a, near constant, throughout the winter and on into spring but over here we get a fairly “watered down” version of whatever hit there.

Storm 10

Have to agree about the warnings the Yellow is a joke people here in Galway laugh at them they are just a normal windy wet day ,The Orange and Red are ok but when to issue them is the problem

Gaoth Laidir

Yes, there should be no such thing as a Yellow "Warning". It does not signify any severe weather, so there's no need for it. Orange is where things should start to be mentioned and let this yellow nonsense be part of the standard forecast.

Amyway, this is off-topic a bit.

ZX7R

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Yes, there should be no such thing as a Yellow "Warning". It does not signify any severe weather, so there's no need for it. Orange is where things should start to be mentioned and let this yellow nonsense be part of the standard forecast.

Amyway, this is off-topic a bit.

The colour coding won't change as long as we are a member of the meteoalarm group simples

Gaoth Laidir

8 pm and now Sherkin Island has taken over the torch from Mace Head, with 54 knots. Mace Head 53 knots. Donegal Airport now up to 50 knots for the first time today.

Testament1

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Actual results (so far)

Shannon: 59 knots between 1pm and 3pm.
Casement: 57 knots between 3pm and 5pm
Knock. 50 knots between 4pm and 5pm.

Knock still not out of the woods yet, as these gusty winds are still ongoing but all in all, not a bad performance from the UK Met at all.

Local radio in Clare reported a top speed of 137kmh at Moneypoint Power Station. Was back around that way around 4pm and it was still wild enough out. Sea was raging at Kilkee.

IMO the colour warnings from Met Eireann are fine, it's every tabloid rag running off with sensational headlines to entice clicks and paper purchases that are the real problem.

Pretzill

As it happens I must have angered the weather gods with my questioning and the wind and rain have started up here again in earnest

Pangea

Storm still very rough here in SW Donegal

Spanish Eyes

When my dodgy fence panel (that I have been threatening to sort out for a year or so) remains intact, it is a windy day, no more.

Hope all in the eye of it in the West are ok.

AllForIt

Some extremely strong gusts accompanying showers here in Castlebar. Quite dangerous actually if your caught by surprise in one. Was almost blown off my feet walking across the car park.

Oneiric 3

Along with the warning system, this 'storm naming' concept should also be scrapped. I fail to see the point of it, because in fairness, named storms are rarely if ever, what you would call true storms. Maybe just restrict naming to actual beasts, and not just standard Atlantic depressions that might head our way? Take 'Debbie' for instance, that name is remembered by those who experience it and those who came after, because it was a storm worth remembering.

Storm 10

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Along with the warning system, this 'storm naming' concept should also be scrapped. I fail to see the point of it, because in fairness, named storms are rarely if ever, what you would call true storms. Maybe just restrict naming to actual beasts, and not just standard Atlantic depressions that might head our way? Take 'Debbie' for instance, that name is remembered by those who experience it and those who came after, because it was a storm worth remembering.

True Debbie was a beast and I survived it and will never forget it

Spanish Eyes

The problem is that no one will take any notice of these red, orange or yellow warnings anymore now.

Too much information can be counter productive.

But then again if they DON'T predict something that is dangerous, the sht will hit the fan.

I dunno anymore. But I enjoy the threads anyway.

Oneiric 3

Testament1 wrote: »

Local radio in Clare reported a top speed of 137kmh at Moneypoint Power Station. Was back around that way around 4pm and it was still wild enough out. Sea was raging at Kilkee.

IMO the colour warnings from Met Eireann are fine, it's every tabloid rag running off with sensational headlines to entice clicks and paper purchases that are the real problem.

To hell with the press though, I expect nothing less from them. My point is that counties such as Galway, which is the 2nd biggest county in the land, cannot be narrowed down to a single warning in situations like this. Such warnings might work much more effectively with the smaller counties of the east, however, but as someone suggested earlier on, if warnings are going to be used, then break up the bigger counties into smaller regions. At least that way these warnings can be narrowed down just a tad.

elperello

I'd prefer that they continue to give us the best information they have in the best way they can.
Those of us who are able to do our risk assessments and take the necessary precautions deserve that.
The people who can't be bothered will eventually get the message or suffer the consequences.

Oneiric 3

Storm 10 wrote: »

True Debbie was a beast and I survived it and will never forget it

Before my time but I have listened to so many incredible stories from people who actually experienced it in the region that I feel that. in some strange way, I have almost experienced it myself. Such a storm cannot be comprehended today.

Jim_Hodge

That was a windy and miserable day here in S Monaghan and as bad as we have had in a while but, while I accept it was much worse elsewhere around the country, it did not warrant an orange warning for this area.

JJayoo

South Sligo

Snow and hail in the morning, very cold and a bit windy.

watlantic

Relax, lads. No more storms, as Ireland files restraining order against storms in the high court:
https://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2020/02/28/ireland-files-restraining-order-against-storms-in-the-high-court/
Sorry, I know that's off topic, but I'm getting bored with the colour coding problem and the 'it's not windy enough in my back yard even for a green alert' complaints.

Danno

ChikiChiki wrote: »

Switch over to Dublin v Tyrone to see the raw power of the wind.

That Tyrone keeper has played in a gale before - fair play to him, excellent scores and fully deserved MOTM.

nthclare

nthclare wrote: »

The wind was so strong in Doolin today that you had to face the land to take a breath.

It was the first time in my life I had to turn my back on the ocean and face the land in order to breathe.

I know there was worse storms but bang on 13:35 today the wind was the strongest gust I ever stood in while not in shelter.

There was pebbles blowing in the wind at clahane definitely dangerous and red.

This is a key post as to why people are disappointed with the 'non event' storms.
Someone said it better before me - people are looking out through triple glazed windows with a cup of tea posting 'what's the big deal?' while people like this guy are outside experiencing the storm.
Maybe some people are afraid to go outside for fear of endangering the emergency services.

Gaoth Laidir

Winds at 18:08 this evening.

Jpmarn

I am glad we didn’t have a bad storm today in the Limerick area. I don’t think any more the 5,000 customers suffered power outages and hardly nobody will be without power for days. But it is better to be warned than not.

Storm 10

ME are annoying at this stage they have posted the same radar chart at 9.30 that they posted at 6pm below is the one they put up and the current one is below

sryanbruen

Here's the latest update to the popular storm comparison table for max wind gusts - honestly blown away by just how popular it has become. In this update, I have removed Fastnet Lighthouse because I showed it previously to show just how non-comparable it was to other stations. I have added Jorge and Dennis (last update posted on here was during Ciara). If Jorge has stronger gusts at any station in the next few hours or so than those shown in the table, I will come back to this post and update it in due course.

For those who didn't see the 70s-90s comparison table (and Debbie) I posted in the stats thread, I have also quoted that. Back when there were some proper severe windstorms that directly impacted Ireland and some of our worst on record like Debbie, Jan 1974 and Feb 1988.

For new visitors, the gusts are colour coded based on the warning system set out on met.ie. Yellow is 90-110 km/h, Orange is 111-130 km/h and Red is greater than 130 km/h.

sryanbruen wrote: »

Data from Met Éireann.

I have also had the courtesy to update the "Storm Index" list to include the new additions and you'll be surprised with the 70s-90s ones (and Debbie) despite the lower number of stations considered.

Debbie ____ 74 (est) (57 from my table)
Darwin ____ 72
Jan11 1974_69
Feb09 1988_68
Feb27 1903_68 (est)
Jan02 1976_64
Dec24 1997_62
Feb26 1990_60
Jan27 1974_60
Jan05 1991_59
Dec26 1998_53
Ulli _______ 51
Ophelia ____49
Doris ______49
Erich ______49
Brendan___48
Jan25 1990_47
Eleanor ____47
Ciara______43
Rachel _____41
Dennis_____40
Barney_____40
Atiyah _____39
Hergen ____ 39
Elsa_______38
Erik _______38
Gareth ____ 37
Hannah ____36
Bawbag ____36
Callum ____ 34
Diana _____ 33
N/A 2011 __ 33
Jorge______33
Dirk ______ 28
Frank______26
Brian _____ 25
Deirdre ____22
Lorenzo ___ 15

Comparing the old ones is just for fun here to show they stack up, even with the limited data. And they sure do! All of them are nearly at the top.

EDIT: First update... Malin Head gust of 111 km/h brings it into orange territory so one point added for Storm Jorge above.

EDIT: Second and final update. Malin Head recorded a gust of 117 km/h this morning.

Oneiric 3

Looking forward to the chart all day Syran. Thanks, it just confirms all of my bitter gripes.

Just out of interest, what is the worst storm you have experienced in your young lifetime?

NIMAN

I think the wind warning for Donegal was up to 9pm.

Now it's really windy at 10pm.

Logan Roy

Oscar Bravo has martyred themself.

Danno

Thundersleet in Durrow

endainoz

nthclare wrote: »

The wind was so strong in Doolin today that you had to face the land to take a breath.

It was the first time in my life I had to turn my back on the ocean and face the land in order to breathe.

I know there was worse storms but bang on 13:35 today the wind was the strongest gust I ever stood in while not in shelter.

There was pebbles blowing in the wind at clahane definitely dangerous and red.

Agreed on that one, I live in Doolin and can confirm. Red was just about justified. I had cattle fed early this morning and stayed in for the duration of the red warning. Yes we have had worse, Darwin still hasn't been beaten in our area but it was still a shocking day. Warning was justified for us anyway.

aisling86

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Looking forward to the chart all day Syran. Thanks, it just confirms all of my bitter gripes.

Just out of interest, what is the worst storm you have experienced in your young lifetime?

I'll never forget Dec 1997 that's my earliest memory of a bad storm age 11.

M.T. Cranium

Just a post-mortem on an interesting storm ...

(a) In general there was a tendency for models to give us over-amped numerical wind guidance. I think the pressure patterns verified quite well but in almost every case the model guidance was a bit strong with the core of strongest winds and this had a knock-on effect in terms of assumptions made about inland penetration. The timing and boundary issues were better handled. Some of the criticism there might be more due to failure to read the detailed discussions and take in the scale of the regional differences expected. This goes to next point ....

(b) once again our storm thread has to deal with a lot of commentary that actually belongs in the Met E forecasts thread. It's not our doing that county by county alerts are the basis for warnings. We routinely stress how these will actually play out, then we get to read (often the same half dozen critics) expounding about how bad the county by county forecast system is. We know this and can't do anything about it from here.

(c) that being said, the extension of the orange wind alerts to south coast and most inland counties was not that well supported even by over-amped numerical guidance. Only Roscommon to Kildare seemed at much risk of getting into that range. So for those who were outside the plausible orange zone, here again, we're stuck with the alerts as issued until or unless we just ignore them and draw up our own maps (then you get critics along the lines of random people on the internet issuing their own warnings). And there's a 10:1 rule at play, for any forecaster with any sort of public following, any error made on the "too weak" side will be ten times bigger as a reputation problem than vice versa. So that probably applies at the pro level too and there's a natural tendency to err on the side of caution.

(d) there were some good outcomes in terms of people avoiding trouble or damage so that's always worth a lot more than ten random whinges about "no storm here."

(e) If you look back and find that you have commented "no storm here" after every storm in every storm thread, then you need to hunt down Graces7 and become her neighbour.

tom_tarbucket

East Galway.

Fairly windy for last hour. Very windy at times in fact. Dare I say it - stronger winds than during the day today.

Gaoth Laidir

The two heads, Mace and Malin, both reporting 60-knot gusts at 23:00. Donegal Airport 54 knots.

Winds at 19:49.

jammiedodgers

tom_tarbucket wrote: »

East Galway.

Fairly windy for last hour. Very windy at times in fact. Dare I say it - stronger winds than during the day today.

Same in West Galway, probably not stronger than earlier today but up there

Oneiric 3

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

We routinely stress how these will actually play out, then we get to read (often the same half dozen critics) expounding about how bad the county by county forecast system is. We know this and can't do anything about it from here.

With the greatest of respect M.T, but maybe those criticisms (of which some are mine) are more than justified. My eyes were really opened in the lead up to 'Ophelia' back in 2017, when red warnings were issued for regions, including this one, that the models clearly suggested beforehand would not need one. I experienced first hand how such warnings effect the most vulnerable of people (as I worked in that capacity at the time) and causes them to needlessly be scared out their wits. Shops and businesses closed, panic buying beforehand.. Thing is, as over-hyped as those warnings for Ophelia were, they still brought stronger winds than today's offering did under a similar red warning. You know and I know and most people on here can understand the nuance of these warnings, but most people outside of this little internet weather hobbiest club who have no interest in daily weather do not, so they place complete trust in these official warnings.

For what it is worth, I posted this 'probability' chart earlier yesterday, and in fairness, it wasn't too far off the mark.




I (or whoever else has access to them) should post these charts more frequently if the need arises from here on in as they are useful for putting progged model output into better perspective.

redsteveireland

Jorge hasn't gone away you know, some nasty gusts here with a passing hail shower.

JCX BXC

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With the greatest of respect M.T, but maybe those criticisms (of which some are mine) are more than justified. My eyes were really opened in the lead up to 'Ophelia' back in 2017, when red warnings were issued for regions, including this one, that the models clearly suggested beforehand would not need one. I experienced first hand how such warnings effect the most vulnerable of people (as I worked in that capacity at the time) and causes them to needlessly be scared out their wits. Shops and businesses closed, panic buying beforehand.. Thing is, as over-hyped as those warnings for Ophelia were, they still brought stronger winds than today's offering did under a similar red warning. You know and I know and most people on here can understand the nuance of these warnings, but most people outside of this little internet weather hobbiest club who have no interest in daily weather do not, so they place complete trust in these official warnings.

I certainly don't disagree, however it's a case of a good proportion of posts in an event thread are complaining/bickering about the warning, then rinse and repeat the exact same arguments every 5 pages.

I certainly think it would be wise here to actively direct this discussion to its own thread as it's quite a topical subject here and creates a significant number of posts. Perhaps at the start of every event thread, a link to the warning discussion thread and a note to direct such discussions to that place.

Oneiric 3

HighLine wrote: »

You either take a huge amount of photos from all over the country (and Wales) or else you are posting other people's intellectual property on here without giving a source or asking permission.

Maybe he just enjoys posting scenic photos. Leave him be.

spookwoman

That picture was from https://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/18270608.storm-jorge-rolls-high-winds/

Waves batter Maryport Prom during Storm Ciara as high tide hits. Similar scenes were seen across the county Picture: Larraine Degraff

Oneiric 3

People have a right to complain on a dedicated storm thread when that storm is not what it is sold to be.

sryanbruen

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Looking forward to the chart all day Syran. Thanks, it just confirms all of my bitter gripes.

Just out of interest, what is the worst storm you have experienced in your young lifetime?

That would be Kyrill of January 2007. Can't remember it from personal experience myself (shocker right :P ) but Dublin Airport had a max gust of 80 kts (148 km/h). That didn't have the highest daily mean wind speed though as that was 4 February 2011 with 28.8 kts which unlike 2007, I remember well. No notable gusts that day but the sustained winds definitely were noticeable. Fitted right in with that deluge weekend too.