Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

Seamai

The chan chan man wrote: »

We’re going to get absolutely destroyed with it Paddy’s weekend. Even if we cancel the parade, the tourists who have their trips booked will still come.

I'd imagine the majority of Italians booked for the rugby weekend are still going to come to Dublin, so cancelling the game has been a waste of time with maybe the exception of a couple of hours in the Aviva which would be the perfect environment for a couple of Typhoid Marys to do their worst.

s7ryf3925pivug

forzacalcio wrote: »

The main reason I myself am taking this seriously is my one year old son has respiratory problems and I simply can't risk it . In the perfect world of a full health family Id sit back and let it ride.

When people on here question why others are panicking there is usually a reason rather than tin foil hat syndrom imo.

My two year old son had respiratory issues during his first year related to prematurity. While I wouldn't be complacent, it is comforting to know that there is a lot of evidence showing that under tens are the least badly affected by the virus.

schmoo2k

Larbre34 wrote: »

A professor of public health from DCU was on the telly last night and he made a good job of explaining the risk versus seasonal flu.

1) It is more infectious than flu. (Something called R value, which is a measure of transmissiblity in the population. Measles, by far the worst airborne disease in the World has a value of 20, seasonal flu 1.3, Covid-19 appears to be >2.

2) its incubation period is much longer than flu, 10-14 days versus 2-5 days. This means you can go around infecting way more people before you know you're a carrier.

3) it seems the virus can exist longer in the open environment outside the body than Flu, making it a greater public health risk.

4) Humans have antibodies to influenza both acquired and inherited for centuries. We have no such tolerance for Covid-19, its brand spanking new and as such if are exposed you basically will get ill. As we know, this will remain mostly mild, but the conversion rate to complications like pneumonia in vulnerable groups becomes higher and more acute for that reason.

...

Aren't points 2 + 3 already taken into consideration in point 1?

GooglePlus

Information posters about the virus have been put around our building today. I work in the civil service, so probably civil service wide.

odyssey06

bennyl10 wrote: »

Because we are following WHO recommendations that airport screening won’t work.
It has a 2 week incubation period

Screening wouldn't catch someone incubating the virus but COULD catch someone infected, who is more likely to be spreading the virus as they manifest symptoms.
WHO also praised the measures in China to contain the virus, which involved screening people leaving their apartment complexes AND entering shops.

NIMAN

Malcolm Wrong Statistician wrote: »

My two year old son had respiratory issues during his first year related to prematurity. While I wouldn't be complacent, it is comforting to know that there is a lot of evidence showing that under tens are the least badly affected by the virus.

Are there any worldwide figures to show what age the deaths are at?

MarkY91

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

If it gives them peace of mind then what’s the problem

What about the two emo looking girls I saw a month ago with anime characters on their masks?

Health concerns? Or just plain old attention seeking thinking they have K-pop fashion?

Seamai

forzacalcio wrote: »

The main reason I myself am taking this seriously is my one year old son has respiratory problems and I simply can't risk it . In the perfect world of a full health family Id sit back and let it ride.

When people on here question why others are panicking there is usually a reason rather than tin foil hat syndrom imo.

Same here, I'm less concerned about myself than my mother who whose has pulmonary fibrosis, 3 years ago she developed pneumonia and spent over a month in hospital, 8 days of that in ICU, or a niece who has just finished 12 months of chemotherapy, most of us have someone in our circle who will be at a higher risk and we have a duty to educate ourselves and act responsibly.

BanditLuke

GooglePlus wrote: »

Information posters about the virus have been put around our building today. I work in the civil service, so probably civil service wide.

Too little to late. 25% jump in cases in last 24hrs in Europe. 5 weeks ago was the time to act.

Posters won't stop this.

Graces7

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Human progress since 1377 ?

Following a deadly outbreak of the plague in 1348…



Fast forward to 2020… rebrand quarantine as “self-isolation” or “social distancing”’, add common sense hand washing and sneezing into your elbow… and there you have the sum total of our effective measures against the spread of this damn Coronavirus.

Some progress !

And Eyam, a village in Derbyshire, England, condemned themselves to almost certain death by closing themselves off when the plague arrived there, See a BBC programme. "Eyam; Village of the Damned."

China had the right idea

wylo

Just wondering are there cases of kids dying that have underlying conditions?

Kermit.de.frog

Leaked regional govt documents suggest the number of confirmed cases in the Chinese province of Shangdong is some 52 times higher than officially recorded.

The first case has arrived in Denmark.

A further 17 cases in Kuwait. Really serious for such a small place.

First case in Estonia.

DrumSteve

wylo wrote: »

Just wondering are there cases of kids dying that have underlying conditions?

There have been no recorded fatalities for any child under 9.

SeaBreezes

sdanseo wrote: »

Even if China is undercooking BOTH the case and death rates by a factor of 10 there is stil a 1 in 4,000 chance of death from it - and that's if youre from Hubei.
The overwhelming likelihood is that the cases are being much more under-reported than the deaths as well.


Yes it's still spreading and yes China allowed this out of control. They could well eradicate it before the rest of us though, with their reaction - oh the irony if they stamp it out and then some entitled westerner re-imports it.

The panic and disruption will be much more significant than the death toll, unless it mutates and becomes exceptionally more virulent. Which of course is a possibility but no more so than a new virus emerging in the first place.

Agreed. I would highly advise listening to the Bruce Ayleward clip.
1) it's not being underreported 320,000 tested in provinces no virus. The stat so far seem accurate (they were hoping for the mild under reported cases)
2) fatality rate will be higher in the west we are not prepared.
3)it's already here. We should be acting like it is.
4) it's likely China was undercooking mortality rates. (My opinion not Bruce)

BanditLuke

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leaked regional govt documents suggest the number of confirmed cases in the Chinese province of Shangdong is some 52 times higher than officially recorded.

The first case has arrived in Denmark.

A further 17 cases in Kuwait. Really serious for such a small place.

First cast in Estonia.

Kuwait is very interesting as the virus is meant to be unable to thrive in hot climates.

Cases exploding in Germany now

Graces7

MarkY91 wrote: »

What about the two emo looking girls I saw a month ago with anime characters on their masks?

Health concerns? Or just plain old attention seeking thinking they have K-pop fashion?

Good for them as many of their peers will follow and yes, health concerns.

touts

Morning Ireland are full on informing people what to do if they get the virus or if a member of their family get it. Lots of useful advice but definitely a more urgent tone to their coverage as they talk about how to self isolate even from your own family members.

I wonder if we are going to get an announcement of a case later this morning.

GooglePlus

GooglePlus wrote: »

Information posters about the virus have been put around our building today. I work in the civil service, so probably civil service wide.

My travel insurance company texted a link last night with info about it too.

BanditLuke

Stocks tanking across Europe again this morning.

MarkY91

Graces7 wrote: »

Good for them as many of their peers will follow and yes, health concerns.

But it's posted on every couple of pages here that the masks are useless. Especially ones with stupid anime characters on them bought to look cool..

odyssey06

MarkY91 wrote: »

But it's posted on every couple of pages here that the masks are useless. Especially ones with stupid anime characters on them bought to look cool..

They could be worse than useless - if they give people a false sense of protection.
On the other hand, they could be useful as they have a psychological effect on people re: other hygiene measures such as gloves, hand gels, hand washing, use of tissues etc

givyjoe

BanditLuke wrote: »

Kuwait is very interesting as the virus is meant to be unable to thrive in hot climates.

Cases exploding in Germany now

W.H.O (on their twitter feed)yesterday said that isn't the case at all .

Xcellor

"Japan woman tests positive for virus after 'recovery'
A woman in Japan who contracted the virus and was discharged from hospital after recovering has tested positive again, officials said."

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0227/1117852-coronavirus/


That's a bit worrying. You can get it , recover be released, get it again and spread it again.

Diarmuid

BanditLuke wrote: »

Too little to late. 25% jump in cases in last 24hrs in Europe. 5 weeks ago was the time to act.

Posters won't stop this.

Agreed we are past containment but there's still the possibility to try and slow it down, to give a chance for treatment/vaccine to "catch up"

BanditLuke

givyjoe wrote: »

W.H.O (on their twitter feed)yesterday said that isn't the case at all .

Yeah missed that. Really bad news I'm afraid

PhantomHat

Xcellor wrote: »

"Japan woman tests positive for virus after 'recovery'
A woman in Japan who contracted the virus and was discharged from hospital after recovering has tested positive again, officials said."

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0227/1117852-coronavirus/


That's a bit worrying. You can get it , recover be released, get it again and spread it again.

How it affects the recipient the second time around is the question

Kermit.de.frog

Experts said to be extremely concerned with the situation in Iran according to the Guardian

Official deaths have jumped to 22 and 143 cases but its said it is hopelessly underreported in terms of both stats in the country.

Most regions affected

https://twitter.com/IRNA_1313/status/1232933517706874883

Panrich

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yeah missed that. Really bad news I'm afraid

The only positive is that if we can manage to contain the spread until we are out of flu season then it becomes clearer when people might have this virus. The initial case in Italy was mistaken for flu.

Blud

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Leaked regional govt documents suggest the number of confirmed cases in the Chinese province of Shangdong is some 52 times higher than officially recorded.

The first case has arrived in Denmark.

A further 17 cases in Kuwait. Really serious for such a small place.

First case in Estonia.

That's a misrepresentation. The daily rate is alleged to be 1.36 to 52 times higher on particular days. Not 52 times the total number, which is what you are trying to suggest in an ongoing attempt to paint an apocalypse.

The leak says that 755 cases are recorded in the province, with the true figure being 1,992. So 2.63 times the recorded number, not 52 times it.

Obviously under recording is a wider problem in itself, regardless of scale, but your post is trying to make it sound worse than it is.

The Daily Mail have to lot to answer for.

s7ryf3925pivug

NIMAN wrote: »

Are there any worldwide figures to show what age the deaths are at?

Yes.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Nobody under 10 has died from it. Death rates are high for the elderly.