General Election 2020 Roscomon-Galway

Dank Janniels

Every other area has one of these threads so why not have one here! Although it seems its going to be a straight forward vote of 2 Independants and 1FF as previously. Here are the candidates anyway:

Aisling Dolan -Fine Gael
Thomas D Fallon -Independent
Michael Fitzmaurice -Independent
Paul Hanley -National Party
James Hope -Aontu
Claire Kerrane -Sinn Fein
Orla Leyden -Fianna Fail
Eugene Murphy -Fianna Fail
Denis Naughton -Independent
Julie O'Donaghue -Green Party
Kenny Tynan -People Before Profit

Naughton +Fitzmaurice will top, then there will be a battle between the 2 FFs and then maybe SF+FG further down the bill

flazio

Speaking from Ballinasloe perspective, we've only really heard from Naughton these past 4 years, Fitzmaurice and Murphy haven't been near the place.
Dolan is well liked in Ballinasloe after spearheading two blocks to waste management to resume in Poolboy, so if Paul Connaghton can muster up support for her in his old ground then she could have East Galway sewn up.

Dank Janniels

Yea theres more boundaries changes this time I think, Boyle +North Ros are gone to Sligo/Leitrim, and theres more of Galway East in with us so maybe people alliances will change

yabadabado

Naughton and Fitzmaurice will be back in comfortably. Then I'd guess it's a straight fight between the two FF candidates.Which will harm both of them.
imo most people in the constituency wouldn't have heard of Dolan a month ago.The very small lead up time to the election probably doesnt help her nor jumping ship to Personally I'd dont give her a chance,wont be in the top 5.

Dank Janniels

Yeah apparently Murphy didnt know Leyden was running at all and made remarks that hes under threat, from his own running mate. She could well overtake him.

I think Dolan is 50/50, she is new, not well known but then she did get into county council last year, One of the lads met her afew weeks ago at some jobs thing, said she was all rural development +hospitals, well able to go sort of person. Tho the whole anti FG protest vote will definitely go against her.

Sinn Fein woman could also be in contention, wont get elected but will get a not too bad vote!

Theres a storm brewing Sunday so probably wont know the final score til Paddys Day lol

yabadabado

A FG candidate talking about hospitals in this constituency is going to be fighting a losing battle. She was on the radio last week talking up ballinasloe hospital and had a few things arseways and Naughton basically schooled her.

mgn

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Yeah apparently Murphy didnt know Leyden was running at all and made remarks that hes under threat, from his own running mate. She could well overtake him.

I think Dolan is 50/50, she is new, not well known but then she did get into county council last year, One of the lads met her afew weeks ago at some jobs thing, said she was all rural development +hospitals, well able to go sort of person. Tho the whole anti FG protest vote will definitely go against her.

Sinn Fein woman could also be in contention, wont get elected but will get a not too bad vote!

Theres a storm brewing Sunday so probably wont know the final score til Paddys Day lol

What is it with Murphy and FF, the done the same the last time out running Shaun Curran against him, do the want another FF candidate instead of him elected, i would have giving him a good chance of being elected before Leyden was added to the ticket.

dambarude

Newcomer to this constituency (we were annexed from Galway East). Not really impressed with any of those running.

Is there any chance at all for the non Naughton/Fitzmaurice/FF/FG candidates?

mgn

dambarude wrote: »

Newcomer to this constituency (we were annexed from Galway East). Not really impressed with any of those running.

Is there any chance at all for the non Naughton/Fitzmaurice/FF/FG candidates?

Cant see it really, Fitzmaurice, Naughton and one of the FF candidates from what i can see.

Dank Janniels

I think Naughton said maternity ward is moving from Portincula to the new Merlin Pk site but FG are saying they'reinvesting more into Ballinaslo+ Dolan got assurances from Simon Harris. Tho Naughton got assurances from FG before about the hospital +look how that turned out!

IIRC they was abit of drama last year over the selection process in FF, Murphy was to go it alone but still it dont look like a united front in that camp

Im kinda hoping that people will assume Naughton+ Fitzmaurice are safe and give more votes to the others +let them battle it out for Seat#3!

BrianBoru00

mgn wrote: »

What is it with Murphy and FF, the done the same the last time out running Shaun Curran against him, do the want another FF candidate instead of him elected, i would have giving him a good chance of being elected before Leyden was added to the ticket.

To be fair there's 5-6000 voters lost to Leitrim Sligo which would be close to Murphy's
Heartland so it makes sense to have a more centrally located candidate and Terry Leyden would have been in office when it was east Galway

Dank Janniels

The new East Galway people will mostly go for Fitz Id say, being 1 of 2 Galway based candidates, (the other is Dolan)

flazio

Fitzmaurice hasn't been near Ballinasloe, and in fact I haven't seen any posters, Facebook videos, flyers, shared posts or anything from his campaign for this election. I'm not saying he hasn't been campaigning, maybe it's just my Facebook algorithms keeping his stuff away from my feed.
Funnily the Facebook video for Murphy has a "great job" comment on it dated from 52 weeks ago so I am struggling to see him as anything else but a TD pension collector.
I don't really care what party they represent, I just want to see intelligent people, head over heart people, in the Dail. From that perspective Naughton, Dolan and Leyden seem to be the people to go for, maybe put the Sinn Fein girl in at number 4.

Dank Janniels

Yea he seems to be more on the tele than he is on the ground! He has no real campaign just the usual about fighting for rural Ireland, I wonder will he support FF?

flazio

Looks Fitzmaurice is going to lead this one with Naughton a safe second. Murphy and Kerrane are the front runners for seat 3.
https://twitter.com/RTErosGalway/status/1226452867772567552?s=09

flazio

https://twitter.com/RTErosGalway/status/1226485563890507776?s=19
Kerrane starting to get an edge on Murphy with Dolan catching up in 5th.
It'll be down to the transfers. My prediction is Kerrane will want a good surplus from Fitzmaurice, Dolan will be looking for Naughtons most likely and Murphy, like last time, will be looking to his running mate to get him over the line.

Dank Janniels

https://www.tuamherald.ie/news/roundup/articles/2020/02/09/4185494-fitzmaurice-ready-to-top-the-poll/

Dank Janniels

Fitzmaurice tops poll with just under 13k. Naughton and Kerrane SF in 2nd +3rd place

FF +FG out of the running

irisheddie85

is there any chance Kerrane will pick up enough transfers to stay ahead of FF and Fg. Where would fitzmaurice surplus be likely to go? i would have thought to other independants and then to FF.

flazio

irisheddie85 wrote: »

is there any chance Kerrane will pick up enough transfers to stay ahead of FF and Fg. Where would fitzmaurice surplus be likely to go? i would have thought to other independants and then to FF.

I wouldn't have thought Fitzmaurice voters would be fans of Naughton and vice versa, polar opposites when it comes to environmental issues, the only other independent isn't even going to get his deposit back. I'm thinking Kerrane is going to be the big winner from Fitzmaurices surplus and possibly Dolan from Naughton as he's ex FG. However, all the other left leaning candidates will probably push Kerrane over the line as they get eliminated. As a Ballinasloe man I'm happy enough to see Naughton back in, Disappointed about Dolan but if she stays ahead of sitting TD Murphy then it'll be some consolation for me. She did well enough for her first time out, just a victim of the national mood.

Dank Janniels

Yea Id say she'l get a good few from the lower down candidates. Fitz's surplus might head to Naughton. The Ole 1-2 etc

irisheddie85

Cant see Fitzmaurice out and out supporting any government. his whole speil is giving out about everything the government does. cant do that if your suppporting the taoiseach. Would Naughton actually support FF if they gave him something. could be 3 opposition tds in Roscommon Galway

flazio

This is the full tally result by the way.
In alphabetical order.

Aisling Dolan, FG 5391

Thomas Fallon, IND 94

Michael Fitzmaurice, IND 12904

Paul Hanley, NP 310

James Hope, AON 365

Claire Kerrane, SF 7873

Orla Leyden, FF 3019

Eugene Murphy, FF 4987

Denis Naughten, IND 8310

Julie O'Donboghue, GP 1385

Kenny Tynan, SOL-PBP 408

Spoiled 206



FF 17.73%

FG 12%

SF 17.44%

National Party 0.69%

Greens 3.07%

PBP 0.90%

Independents 47.20%

Aontu 1.03%

irisheddie85

i must have been looking at a much earlier poll thinking it was up to date.
Kerrane is well in for the 3rd seat

Fann Linn

flazio wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought Fitzmaurice voters would be fans of Naughton and vice versa, polar opposites when it comes to environmental issues, the only other independent isn't even going to get his deposit back. I'm thinking Kerrane is going to be the big winner from Fitzmaurices surplus and possibly Dolan from Naughton as he's ex FG. However, all the other left leaning candidates will probably push Kerrane over the line as they get eliminated. As a Ballinasloe man I'm happy enough to see Naughton back in, Disappointed about Dolan but if she stays ahead of sitting TD Murphy then it'll be some consolation for me. She did well enough for her first time out, just a victim of the national mood.

Dolan flipped to FG from Indo as soon as she got her council seat. She got no votes or transfers in this household because of that this time around and I'm sure that will be replicated in other places and homes.

mgn

Kerrane doing well but how transfer friendly are SF, that's the big question.

irisheddie85

mgn wrote: »

Kerrane doing well but how transfer friendly are SF, that's the big question.

should get most of the green and pbp tramsfers. A lot will depend on fitzs surplus

Addle

irisheddie85 wrote: »

Cant see Fitzmaurice out and out supporting any government. his whole speil is giving out about everything the government does. cant do that if your suppporting the taoiseach. Would Naughton actually support FF if they gave him something. could be 3 opposition tds in Roscommon Galway

Naughton’s canvassers said he would support whoever needs him as long as he gets promises re the hospital.

irisheddie85

Addle wrote: »

Naughton’s canvassers said he would support whoever needs him as long as he gets promises re the hospital.

the way its looking just getting a promise on something for the hospital is a cheap vote. Could aim for another ministerial pension if it plays out right for him

mgn

irisheddie85 wrote: »

should get most of the green and pbp tramsfers. A lot will depend on fitzs surplus

The Greens and PBP wont get her over the line,

Fann Linn

Addle wrote: »

Naughton’s canvassers said he would support whoever needs him as long as he gets promises re the hospital.

That excuse is wearing thin and most people are well resigned to the fact that the hospital is gone.

Btw, when he was a govt minister last time round he didn't manage to keep it open.

What's changed?

mgn

Out of interest, how many canvassers called to people in rural areas, the only one the called to me was the person that least of all needed my vote was Fitzmaurice.

irisheddie85

mgn wrote: »

The Greens and PBP wont get her over the line,

no but will keep her in the running against the combined ff vote assuming they managed to transfer to each other. like i said fitzs surplus is the first thing that matters.

last seats dont usually get over the line anyway just tend to be far enough ahead when everyone else is eliminated.

flazio

Fann Linn wrote: »

Dolan flipped to FG from Indo as soon as she got her council seat. She got no votes or transfers in this household because of that this time around and I'm sure that will be replicated in other places and homes.

Hey I hate Fine Gael top brass as well. But Dolan joining them doesn't erase the good work she's done before she joined them.
It's all moot point anyway as she's not getting in but it's still an impressive performance from a first timer.

Fann Linn

mgn wrote: »

Out of interest, how many canvassers called to people in rural areas, the only one the called to me was the person that least of all needed my vote was Fitzmaurice.

The Aontu lad called in person last Sunday.
Plus a Fitzmaurice canvasser the other night.
Then I had leaflets put through the door by SF, FF, FG.

Fann Linn

flazio wrote: »

Hey I hate Fine Gael top brass as well. But Dolan joining them doesn't erase the good work she's done before she joined them.
It's all moot point anyway as she's not getting in but it's still an impressive performance from a first timer.

Each to their own but my point being that going to FG was always going to pis$ someone off.

Similar to Kelly going to the LP last time around.

Dank Janniels

Fitz could well side with SF, all things have changed now if ye pardon my dramatics, they are "less toxic" as in people siding with them. Kerranes seat changes things for this area

mgn

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Fitz could well side with SF, all things have changed now if ye pardon my dramatics, they are "less toxic" as in people siding with them. Kerranes seat changes things for this area

Kerrane not over the line yet, as for Fitzmaurice he won't go into government with no one, if he did he wouldn't top the poll the next time, he is to cute for that.

Stewball

mgn wrote: »

Kerrane not over the line yet, as for Fitzmaurice he won't go into government with no one, if he did he wouldn't top the poll the next time, he is to cute for that.

Exactly. That's why some of these Independents are useless on a national level.

Fann Linn

Shannonside FM predicting Kerrane to get third seat in Roscommon Galway.

Rikand

Stewball wrote: »

Exactly. That's why some of these Independents are useless on a national level.

But great on a local level. He's done a lot of great stuff in the area around my in-laws in north Roscommon. He'll get their vote for life on the strength of that

He's confirmed in on rte ::

Michael Fitzmaurice, Independent, has been elected on the first count in Roscommon-Galway with 13,077 votes.

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020-constituencies/2020/0203/1112816-national-updates/

Dank Janniels

Fitz elected just there. Yea he does alot of things for alot of people locally but doesnt give me much confidence as a nationaly focused politician

Dank Janniels

Round 2!
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Sinn Fein to take the 3rd seat it seems

Dank Janniels

Naughton 9057
Kerrane 8322
Dolan 5675
Murphy 5201
Leyden 3124
O'Donaghue 1445


PBP +the other fellas now eliminated

Murphy conceding defeat according to sum1 on twitter

Addle

Poor decision by FF to run Leyden and split the FF vote. Eugene worked hard.

SF have been preparing this election locally for a long time. It’s paid off.

Rikand

Addle wrote: »

Poor decision by FF to run Leyden and split the FF vote. Eugene worked hard.

SF have been preparing this election locally for a long time. It’s paid off.

If Kerrane hasnt reach quota by the time of moving Leydens votes, you have to fancy he'll catch or almost catch her. Could still be close

Fann Linn

Eugene Murphy FF has already made 20 phone calls, according to himself, in bid to get Seanad seat.
Has conceded third seat will likely go to SF according to Shannonside FM.

Fann Linn

Addle wrote: »

Poor decision by FF to run Leyden and split the FF vote. Eugene worked hard.

SF have been preparing this election locally for a long time. It’s paid off.

I like Eugene myself, but apparently SF couldn't believe their luck with Leyden thrown into the mix. Opened up everything for SF to sweep through the middle with the FF split.

Dank Janniels

Count 3:
Naughton 9419
Kerrane 8690
Dolan 5710
Murphy 5381
Leyden 3197
O'Donaghue 1610

flazio

Leyden and the green candidate eliminated, even if Murphy got every vote from Leyden he wouldn't catch Kerrane.

Dank Janniels

Quota is 11404
Will be interesting where the transfers go