General Election 2020 Roscomon-Galway

Dank Janniels · 03-02-2020 10:04pm #1

Every other area has one of these threads so why not have one here! Although it seems its going to be a straight forward vote of 2 Independants and 1FF as previously. Here are the candidates anyway:

Aisling Dolan -Fine Gael
Thomas D Fallon -Independent
Michael Fitzmaurice -Independent
Paul Hanley -National Party
James Hope -Aontu
Claire Kerrane -Sinn Fein
Orla Leyden -Fianna Fail
Eugene Murphy -Fianna Fail
Denis Naughton -Independent
Julie O'Donaghue -Green Party
Kenny Tynan -People Before Profit

Naughton +Fitzmaurice will top, then there will be a battle between the 2 FFs and then maybe SF+FG further down the bill

flazio · 04-02-2020 9:24pm

Speaking from Ballinasloe perspective, we've only really heard from Naughton these past 4 years, Fitzmaurice and Murphy haven't been near the place.
Dolan is well liked in Ballinasloe after spearheading two blocks to waste management to resume in Poolboy, so if Paul Connaghton can muster up support for her in his old ground then she could have East Galway sewn up.

Dank Janniels · 05-02-2020 1:44am

Yea theres more boundaries changes this time I think, Boyle +North Ros are gone to Sligo/Leitrim, and theres more of Galway East in with us so maybe people alliances will change

yabadabado · 06-02-2020 9:58am

Naughton and Fitzmaurice will be back in comfortably. Then I'd guess it's a straight fight between the two FF candidates.Which will harm both of them.
imo most people in the constituency wouldn't have heard of Dolan a month ago.The very small lead up time to the election probably doesnt help her nor jumping ship to Personally I'd dont give her a chance,wont be in the top 5.

Dank Janniels · 06-02-2020 7:59pm

Yeah apparently Murphy didnt know Leyden was running at all and made remarks that hes under threat, from his own running mate. She could well overtake him.

I think Dolan is 50/50, she is new, not well known but then she did get into county council last year, One of the lads met her afew weeks ago at some jobs thing, said she was all rural development +hospitals, well able to go sort of person. Tho the whole anti FG protest vote will definitely go against her.

Sinn Fein woman could also be in contention, wont get elected but will get a not too bad vote!

Theres a storm brewing Sunday so probably wont know the final score til Paddys Day lol

yabadabado · 06-02-2020 8:56pm

A FG candidate talking about hospitals in this constituency is going to be fighting a losing battle. She was on the radio last week talking up ballinasloe hospital and had a few things arseways and Naughton basically schooled her.

mgn · 06-02-2020 9:16pm

Dank Janniels wrote: »

Yeah apparently Murphy didnt know Leyden was running at all and made remarks that hes under threat, from his own running mate. She could well overtake him.

I think Dolan is 50/50, she is new, not well known but then she did get into county council last year, One of the lads met her afew weeks ago at some jobs thing, said she was all rural development +hospitals, well able to go sort of person. Tho the whole anti FG protest vote will definitely go against her.

Sinn Fein woman could also be in contention, wont get elected but will get a not too bad vote!

Theres a storm brewing Sunday so probably wont know the final score til Paddys Day lol

What is it with Murphy and FF, the done the same the last time out running Shaun Curran against him, do the want another FF candidate instead of him elected, i would have giving him a good chance of being elected before Leyden was added to the ticket.

dambarude · 06-02-2020 11:05pm

Newcomer to this constituency (we were annexed from Galway East). Not really impressed with any of those running.

Is there any chance at all for the non Naughton/Fitzmaurice/FF/FG candidates?

mgn · 06-02-2020 11:35pm

dambarude wrote: »

Newcomer to this constituency (we were annexed from Galway East). Not really impressed with any of those running.

Is there any chance at all for the non Naughton/Fitzmaurice/FF/FG candidates?

Cant see it really, Fitzmaurice, Naughton and one of the FF candidates from what i can see.

Dank Janniels · 07-02-2020 12:02am

I think Naughton said maternity ward is moving from Portincula to the new Merlin Pk site but FG are saying they'reinvesting more into Ballinaslo+ Dolan got assurances from Simon Harris. Tho Naughton got assurances from FG before about the hospital +look how that turned out!

IIRC they was abit of drama last year over the selection process in FF, Murphy was to go it alone but still it dont look like a united front in that camp

Im kinda hoping that people will assume Naughton+ Fitzmaurice are safe and give more votes to the others +let them battle it out for Seat#3!

BrianBoru00 · 07-02-2020 12:03am

mgn wrote: »

What is it with Murphy and FF, the done the same the last time out running Shaun Curran against him, do the want another FF candidate instead of him elected, i would have giving him a good chance of being elected before Leyden was added to the ticket.

To be fair there's 5-6000 voters lost to Leitrim Sligo which would be close to Murphy's
Heartland so it makes sense to have a more centrally located candidate and Terry Leyden would have been in office when it was east Galway

Dank Janniels · 07-02-2020 1:08am

The new East Galway people will mostly go for Fitz Id say, being 1 of 2 Galway based candidates, (the other is Dolan)

flazio · 07-02-2020 9:35am

Fitzmaurice hasn't been near Ballinasloe, and in fact I haven't seen any posters, Facebook videos, flyers, shared posts or anything from his campaign for this election. I'm not saying he hasn't been campaigning, maybe it's just my Facebook algorithms keeping his stuff away from my feed.
Funnily the Facebook video for Murphy has a "great job" comment on it dated from 52 weeks ago so I am struggling to see him as anything else but a TD pension collector.
I don't really care what party they represent, I just want to see intelligent people, head over heart people, in the Dail. From that perspective Naughton, Dolan and Leyden seem to be the people to go for, maybe put the Sinn Fein girl in at number 4.

Dank Janniels · 07-02-2020 11:08pm

Yea he seems to be more on the tele than he is on the ground! He has no real campaign just the usual about fighting for rural Ireland, I wonder will he support FF?

flazio · 09-02-2020 12:06pm

Looks Fitzmaurice is going to lead this one with Naughton a safe second. Murphy and Kerrane are the front runners for seat 3.
https://twitter.com/RTErosGalway/status/1226452867772567552?s=09

flazio · 09-02-2020 1:58pm

https://twitter.com/RTErosGalway/status/1226485563890507776?s=19
Kerrane starting to get an edge on Murphy with Dolan catching up in 5th.
It'll be down to the transfers. My prediction is Kerrane will want a good surplus from Fitzmaurice, Dolan will be looking for Naughtons most likely and Murphy, like last time, will be looking to his running mate to get him over the line.

Dank Janniels · 09-02-2020 4:22pm

https://www.tuamherald.ie/news/roundup/articles/2020/02/09/4185494-fitzmaurice-ready-to-top-the-poll/

Dank Janniels · 09-02-2020 4:25pm

Fitzmaurice tops poll with just under 13k. Naughton and Kerrane SF in 2nd +3rd place

FF +FG out of the running

irisheddie85 · 09-02-2020 4:27pm

is there any chance Kerrane will pick up enough transfers to stay ahead of FF and Fg. Where would fitzmaurice surplus be likely to go? i would have thought to other independants and then to FF.

flazio · 09-02-2020 4:36pm

irisheddie85 wrote: »

is there any chance Kerrane will pick up enough transfers to stay ahead of FF and Fg. Where would fitzmaurice surplus be likely to go? i would have thought to other independants and then to FF.

I wouldn't have thought Fitzmaurice voters would be fans of Naughton and vice versa, polar opposites when it comes to environmental issues, the only other independent isn't even going to get his deposit back. I'm thinking Kerrane is going to be the big winner from Fitzmaurices surplus and possibly Dolan from Naughton as he's ex FG. However, all the other left leaning candidates will probably push Kerrane over the line as they get eliminated. As a Ballinasloe man I'm happy enough to see Naughton back in, Disappointed about Dolan but if she stays ahead of sitting TD Murphy then it'll be some consolation for me. She did well enough for her first time out, just a victim of the national mood.

Dank Janniels · 09-02-2020 4:37pm

Yea Id say she'l get a good few from the lower down candidates. Fitz's surplus might head to Naughton. The Ole 1-2 etc

irisheddie85 · 09-02-2020 4:48pm

Cant see Fitzmaurice out and out supporting any government. his whole speil is giving out about everything the government does. cant do that if your suppporting the taoiseach. Would Naughton actually support FF if they gave him something. could be 3 opposition tds in Roscommon Galway

flazio · 09-02-2020 4:54pm

This is the full tally result by the way.
In alphabetical order.

Aisling Dolan, FG 5391

Thomas Fallon, IND 94

Michael Fitzmaurice, IND 12904

Paul Hanley, NP 310

James Hope, AON 365

Claire Kerrane, SF 7873

Orla Leyden, FF 3019

Eugene Murphy, FF 4987

Denis Naughten, IND 8310

Julie O'Donboghue, GP 1385

Kenny Tynan, SOL-PBP 408

Spoiled 206

FF 17.73%

FG 12%

SF 17.44%

National Party 0.69%

Greens 3.07%

PBP 0.90%

Independents 47.20%

Aontu 1.03%

irisheddie85 · 09-02-2020 4:58pm

i must have been looking at a much earlier poll thinking it was up to date.
Kerrane is well in for the 3rd seat

Fann Linn · 09-02-2020 4:59pm

flazio wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought Fitzmaurice voters would be fans of Naughton and vice versa, polar opposites when it comes to environmental issues, the only other independent isn't even going to get his deposit back. I'm thinking Kerrane is going to be the big winner from Fitzmaurices surplus and possibly Dolan from Naughton as he's ex FG. However, all the other left leaning candidates will probably push Kerrane over the line as they get eliminated. As a Ballinasloe man I'm happy enough to see Naughton back in, Disappointed about Dolan but if she stays ahead of sitting TD Murphy then it'll be some consolation for me. She did well enough for her first time out, just a victim of the national mood.

Dolan flipped to FG from Indo as soon as she got her council seat. She got no votes or transfers in this household because of that this time around and I'm sure that will be replicated in other places and homes.

mgn · 09-02-2020 5:02pm

Kerrane doing well but how transfer friendly are SF, that's the big question.

irisheddie85 · 09-02-2020 5:05pm

mgn wrote: »

Kerrane doing well but how transfer friendly are SF, that's the big question.

should get most of the green and pbp tramsfers. A lot will depend on fitzs surplus

Addle · 09-02-2020 5:08pm

irisheddie85 wrote: »

Cant see Fitzmaurice out and out supporting any government. his whole speil is giving out about everything the government does. cant do that if your suppporting the taoiseach. Would Naughton actually support FF if they gave him something. could be 3 opposition tds in Roscommon Galway

Naughton’s canvassers said he would support whoever needs him as long as he gets promises re the hospital.

irisheddie85 · 09-02-2020 5:13pm

Addle wrote: »

Naughton’s canvassers said he would support whoever needs him as long as he gets promises re the hospital.

the way its looking just getting a promise on something for the hospital is a cheap vote. Could aim for another ministerial pension if it plays out right for him

mgn · 09-02-2020 5:15pm

irisheddie85 wrote: »

should get most of the green and pbp tramsfers. A lot will depend on fitzs surplus

The Greens and PBP wont get her over the line,

Fann Linn · 09-02-2020 5:17pm

Addle wrote: »

Naughton’s canvassers said he would support whoever needs him as long as he gets promises re the hospital.

That excuse is wearing thin and most people are well resigned to the fact that the hospital is gone.

Btw, when he was a govt minister last time round he didn't manage to keep it open.

What's changed?

General Election 2020 Roscomon-Galway

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