GE2020 - Dun Laoghaire (4 seater)

dubrov · 09-02-2020 8:55pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Pure stupid decision. Devlin would've got 8 or 9k first prefs in a solo candidacy.

But will he not pick up Hanafin's transfers anyway?

starbaby2003 · 09-02-2020 9:04pm

Significant transfer to Devlin. I’ve no time for either party but Devlin seems to do a lot for the local community. I would also hate to see two FG seats in the constituency.

ddarcy · 09-02-2020 9:11pm

Be interesting to see how Barry Ward transfers. He was dropped from the ticket because of MMOC. So should be interesting if his votes don’t go to her. I’m sure the SF vote will probably go green and PBP. So the next few hours will be interesting.

starbaby2003 · 09-02-2020 9:16pm

ddarcy wrote: »

Be interesting to see how Barry Ward transfers. He was dropped from the ticket because of MMOC. So should be interesting if his votes don’t go to her. I’m sure the SF vote will probably go green and PBP. So the next few hours will be interesting.

I was thinking this too, I wonder how much of his was a local vote and not one aligned to the party. He might transfer a number to Devlin.

ddarcy · 09-02-2020 9:30pm

starbaby2003 wrote: »

I was thinking this too, I wonder how much of his was a local vote and not one aligned to the party. He might transfer a number to Devlin.

Could well be. MMOC is male repellent and I think she could suffer here. MMOC is sounding worried on RTÉ. So she probably knows how the transfers will go from Barry Ward. Here’s hoping.

In fairness Devin actually worked very hard in the district. So he will get some.

It will be interesting to see how SF goes as well. I’d ain’t FG won’t get any from there. Most likely going green and pbp.

ddarcy · 09-02-2020 9:47pm

Well Devlin is 142 off MMOC. I can’t see SF going to FG. I think MMOC could be gone. Hope I’m right!

coylemj · 09-02-2020 10:14pm

ddarcy wrote: »

Well Devlin is 142 off MMOC. I can’t see SF going to FG. I think MMOC could be gone. Hope I’m right!

+1

The distribution of the SF 6,400 votes will definitely push RBB over the quota with a big surplus. Carroll McNeil is 1,000 short of the quota and she's not going to get that from SF.

What happens next depends on the gap between Devlin and MMOC, assuming they are the remaining candidates with the least votes. If RBB's surplus is less than the gap (unlikely), MMOC will be eliminated and Carroll McNeill and Devlin will be declared elected without reaching the quota. Otherwise, they will distribute RBB's quota but that is very unlikely to push MMOC ahead of Devlin so the result will be the same.

ddarcy · 09-02-2020 10:54pm

Well Devlin has overtaken MMOC. Depends where RBB surplus goes. I’d assume it will be similar as before where FF will be more transfer friendly than FG. Expect a full recount if MMOC loses out.

ddarcy · 09-02-2020 11:32pm

She’s gone &#55357;&#56832;

Larbre34 · 09-02-2020 11:40pm

Ossian Smyth GP
Jennifer Carroll McNeill FG
Richard Boyd Barrett SPBP
Cormac Devlin FF

A respectable team for Dun Laoghaire being returned to the 33rd Dáil. Hard to see any Ministers emerging from that though, no matter what the Government composition.

ddarcy · 09-02-2020 11:48pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Ossian Smyth GP
Jennifer Carroll McNeill FG
Richard Boyd Barrett SPBP
Cormac Devlin FF

A respectable team for Dun Laoghaire being returned to the 33rd Dáil. Hard to see any Ministers emerging from that though, no matter what the Government composition.

Well dun laoghaire only had one way to go after the last bunch of incompetents. RBB was by far the best TD from Dun Laoghaire over the last 9 years. You can take from that what you will.

coylemj · 09-02-2020 11:49pm

I asked a FG insider why they were running three candidates in DL and was told that Barry Ward had a lot of younger supporters and the local FG organisation wanted to keep them onboard. Which makes some sense but FG ended up with one seat from 1.67 quotas, the same as FF who only picked up 0.8 of a quota.

If FG had run two candidates and split the constituency in two, they could easily have taken two seats. On the last count tonight, FG had a combined total of 22,673 votes while Devlin had 11,071. Had FG split their vote evenly as they did (with just two candidates) in 2016, they could have taken the last two seats.

Larbre34 · 10-02-2020 1:26am

The principle of that stacks up but not the explanation. Barry Ward was always on the ticket, Jennifer was only added to replace Bailey. The obvious play would have been simply not to replace her.

Yes JCM got the seat, but despite being a party advisor for a while she's only 7 months on DLR Council. MM and Ward have probably 25 years as public reps between them and carve the constituency right in half between them, ideal for 1,2 management.

On the other hand, FF were absolutely steeped to get Devlin over the line. 2 candidates from them was equally stupid.

Be interesting to see who is co-opted to replace Smyth, Devlin and JCM

scrumqueen · 10-02-2020 11:12am

crushproof wrote: »

He seems to be undermined by the party quite a lot and not given the respect due. I'd never ever vote FF/FG but if he went independent I'd consider giving him a vote. At least he's visible in the community and is communicative. Don't think I've ever seen Hannifan, or MMOC for that matter, engaging with the people on the street.

starbaby2003 wrote: »

Significant transfer to Devlin. I’ve no time for either party but Devlin seems to do a lot for the local community. I would also hate to see two FG seats in the constituency.

I've lived in Blackrock now for nearly 10 years, opened and ran a business in Dun Laoghaire and I have never ever come across him or Barry Ward. Does being active on twitter around here equate to being visible?

MMOC was visible alright so I'm told but saw SFA of her either. RBB is at least vocal and does his bit.

I'm no fan of MMOC or CD so cant say I am pleased with the outcome.

helimachoptor · 10-02-2020 12:14pm

scrumqueen wrote: »

I've lived in Blackrock now for nearly 10 years, opened and ran a business in Dun Laoghaire and I have never ever come across him or Barry Ward. Does being active on twitter around here equate to being visible?

MMOC was visible alright so I'm told but saw SFA of her either. RBB is at least vocal and does his bit.

I'm no fan of MMOC or CD so cant say I am pleased with the outcome.

tbh I see Devlin most days but its only because my child and his child were in the same montessori and now primary school.
I've never had him knock on the door (or any of his supporters) for any locals or even this election.

Barry Ward , Ossian Smyth & Juliet O'Connel (supporters) all knocked this election.
For the locals, I had a very informed conversation with O'Connell in person, she was the only knock we got.

Trizo · 10-02-2020 12:22pm

Spoke with most of the candidates either in person or via email , Was emailing a lot of them over the potential parking fees increase also, only parties not to call to the door were SF and PBP but then that was hardly surprising as I'm not their typical demographic...

That last seat was very close and could have gone either way really , was never going to be 3 FG seats but easily could have been 2.

coylemj · 10-02-2020 1:13pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

The principle of that stacks up but not the explanation. Barry Ward was always on the ticket, Jennifer was only added to replace Bailey. The obvious play would have been simply not to replace her.

+1 I think FG made the same mistake twice - nominating three candidates in the first place and then adding JCM to the ticket when Bailey was dumped.

coylemj · 10-02-2020 1:22pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Yes JCM got the seat, but despite being a party advisor for a while she's only 7 months on DLR Council.

She made up for the lack of a local track record and the fact that she was relatively unknown by relentlessly pushing the husband into the frame at every opportunity.

Take a look at this tweet from Jan. 29th. It features Fergus Slattery (rugby international) and her husband Hugo MacNeill (rugby international) who are 'chatting about the upcoming Six Nations' - just in case you didn't get the rugby link. And note the gratuitous inclusion of twitter tags for the British & Irish Lions and Blackrock Rugby club....

https://twitter.com/CarrollJennifer/status/1222418066333732864?s=20

josip · 10-02-2020 1:30pm

coylemj wrote: »

She made up for the lack of a local track record and the fact that she was relatively unknown by relentlessly pushing the husband into the frame at every opportunity.

Take a look at this tweet from Jan. 29th. It features Fergus Slattery (rugby international), her husband Hugo MacNeill (rugby international) who (of course) were discussing the upcoming Six Nations - just in case you didn't get the rugby link. And note the gratuitous incluslon of twitter tags for the British & Irish Lions and Blackrock Rugby club....

https://twitter.com/CarrollJennifer/status/1222418066333732864?s=20

Yeah, totally agree with this and I'd traditionally be a FG sympathiser.
"Wife of Hugo" on all her material for the council elections.
FFS, do you not have enough self confidence in your own abilities to run for election without relying on Mr. Goldman Sach's rugby background to get you over the line?

ted1 · 10-02-2020 2:32pm

josip wrote: »

Yeah, totally agree with this and I'd traditionally be a FG sympathiser.
"Wife of Hugo" on all her material for the council elections.
FFS, do you not have enough self confidence in your own abilities to run for election without relying on Mr. Goldman Sach's rugby background to get you over the line?

She got over the line. Effectively that’s all that matters. Use whatever tool you have.

coylemj · 10-02-2020 2:42pm

ted1 wrote: »

She got over the line. Effectively that’s all that matters. Use whatever tool you have.

Great philosophy.

What matters to the general population is who can serve the interests of the area best, not who is the most photogenic or has a partner who was capped for Ireland more than 30 years ago.

But it's often said that we get the politicians we deserve.....

Larbre34 · 10-02-2020 2:51pm

She's also foxy. Just sayin'.

ted1 · 10-02-2020 3:24pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

She's also foxy. Just sayin'.

She did a swim wear shoot with Leo at the 40foot....

ted1 · 10-02-2020 3:52pm

coylemj wrote: »

Great philosophy.

.

From her point of view it is. That’s why she produced the marketing leaflets

Larbre34 · 10-02-2020 6:33pm

ted1 wrote: »

She did a swim wear shoot with Leo at the 40foot....

I had noticed.

Marty Bird · 10-02-2020 6:47pm

MMOC glad she’s gone useless never done anything good for the area. Back to the Harold to her old job no doubt.

josip · 11-02-2020 12:16am

JCM now on the Tonight Show making the Ra guy from Waterford look good.

Larbre34 · 11-02-2020 12:41am

josip wrote: »

JCM now on the Tonight Show making the Ra guy from Waterford look good.

We must be watching a different show, she ripped him very nicely over his carry-on.

josip · 11-02-2020 12:55am

Larbre34 wrote: »

We must be watching a different show, she ripped him very nicely over his carry-on.

Perhaps you had your foxy tinted glasses on when you were watching?

Larbre34 · 11-02-2020 2:00am

josip wrote: »

Perhaps you had your foxy tinted glasses on when you were watching?

Nope, I was only joshing about that, but she very well articulated the damage Cullinane's brain fart could have done.

GE2020 - Dun Laoghaire (4 seater)

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