GE2020 - Dun Laoghaire (4 seater)

Agent Smith

The Candidates are

Mary Mitchell O’Connor (Fine Gael), *
Cllr. Barry Ward (Fine Gael),
Cllr. Jennifer Carroll MacNeil (Fine Gael)l,
Cllr. Cormac Devlin (Fianna Fáil),
Cllr. Mary Hanafin (Fianna Fail),
Shane O’Brien (Sinn Féin),
Cllr. Juliet O’Connell (Labour Party),
Richard Boyd-Barret (People Before Profit), *
Cllr. Dave Quinn (Social Democrats)
Cllr. Ossian Smyth (Green Party),
Mairéad Tóibín (Aontú)
John Waters (ACI)

*Outgoing TD

Note: Sean Barrett (FG) retired and Maria Bailey Was deselected by FG.


Care of adriankavanaghelections

So who's Going to Take the 4 Seats?

coylemj

Do we know for certain that Maria Bailey will not run as an independent? Nominations close at noon this Wednesday Jan 22nd.

coylemj

I think with the expected strong showing by the Greens, FF and FG are doing themselves no favours by running 2 (FF) and 3 (FG) candidates. On a good day and ignoring the poll in yesterday's Sunday Times, FG could just about take two seats with good vote management but you can't do that with three candidates. Before you say that's fantasy, bear in mind that they took two out of the three available seats in 2016 and as now, FG was the outgoing Govt.

Prediction:

Mary Mitchell O’Connor (Fine Gael), *
Cllr. Mary Hanafin (Fianna Fail),
Richard Boyd-Barret (People Before Profit), *
Cllr. Ossian Smyth (Green Party)

Tabnabs

I think it will be very close between Hanafin and Devlin.

Cllr Devlin has arguably a higher profile locally and certainly less baggage than Hanafin. I think he might just do enough to squeeze her out.

scrumqueen

coylemj wrote: »

Prediction:

Mary Mitchell O’Connor (Fine Gael), *
Cllr. Mary Hanafin (Fianna Fail),
Richard Boyd-Barret (People Before Profit), *
Cllr. Ossian Smyth (Green Party)

I agree with all of that except RBB is very at risk of losing his seat. That 4th seat will be a toss up, either RBB to scrape it or lose to whoever wins the wild game is that is left-friendly-transfers!

ted1

Tabnabs wrote: »

I think it will be very close between Hanafin and Devlin.

Cllr Devlin has arguably a higher profile locally and certainly less baggage than Hanafin. I think he might just do enough to squeeze her out.

Yeah , it’s a poor choice to run Hanafin. It was only ten years ago when she bought her mum to work and her mum sued the Dail for a fall she had there.

Devlin deserves it, one if the hardest working cllr in the area

coylemj

scrumqueen wrote: »

I agree with all of that except RBB is very at risk of losing his seat. That 4th seat will be a toss up, either RBB to scrape it or lose to whoever wins the wild game is that is left-friendly-transfers!

What has changed since 2016 when RBB was the first candidate elected? He made it on the sixth count, Maria Bailey and MMOC were elected on the seventh count. This time around, Ossian Smyth (Greens) is probably going to take the first seat based on his party's performance in the local elections but I'd see RBB taking the second seat.

All RBB has to do is sit back and wait for the transfers from other hard left candidates, in particular SF and the Social Democrats. Where else are left wing votes going to go? In 2016, he didn't even need transfers from Labour, he was already over the line when Carrie Smyth was eliminated.

The only potential long term threat to RBB is SF but they have never achieved a decent vote in DLR in recent years and based on their poor performance (3.4%) across the county in the local elections last year, RBB is easily looking at another term in the Dail.

scrumqueen

coylemj wrote: »

What has changed since 2016 when RBB was the first candidate elected? He made it on the sixth count, Maria Bailey and MMOC were elected on the seventh count.

All RBB has to do is sit back and wait for the transfers from other hard left candidates, in particular SF and the Social Democrats. Where else are left wing votes going to go? In 2016, he didn't even need transfers from Labour, he was already over the line when Carrie Smyth was eliminated.

The only potential long term threat to RBB is SF but they have never achieved a decent vote in DLR in recent years and based on their poor performance (3.4%) across the county in the local elections last year, RBB is easily looking at another term in the Dail.

Poor showing at Local Elections, and the Irish Times has him down to lose his seat and just general chat around the constituency and on the doors.

Look, it's not my preference just what I'm hearing, he will be getting a top 3 preference from me anyway FWIW.

starbaby2003

I’m really surprised about RBB. He seems to be the only one who actually ever does anything for the area. Only issue I have with him is his stance on bus connects. I’ll be giving him a vote anyway.

aoh

For me it's 7 NO, maybe, no, maybe, NO. At least RBB will stick it to the man. Am tempted not to vote but that just helps their egos!!

ted1

starbaby2003 wrote: »

I’m really surprised about RBB. He seems to be the only one who actually ever does anything for the area. Only issue I have with him is his stance on bus connects. I’ll be giving him a vote anyway.

He loves a good soap box , not sure he gets anything done. Actually he does the opposite, he opposes everything

Gareth Keenan

I think Ossian Smyth will top the poll. Followed by in by MMOC, RBB and Cormac Devlin.

Peregrine

Ossian Smyth has been very busy in that constituency for a couple of years and the party surge could help him top the poll.

Mary Mitchell O'Connor will get back in. The other two haven't a hope.

There's one FF seat there. Probably Devlin. Hanafin has a lot of baggage but I wouldn't be shocked if she gets in over Devlin either.

I think Richard Boyd Barret will keep his seat.

starbaby2003

Has anyone had any callers yet ?
I see OS, RBB, CD not sure about the fourth seat. MMOC stood by MB she might suffer for that.

Agent Smith

coylemj wrote: »

What has changed since 2016 when RBB was the first candidate elected? He made it on the sixth count, Maria Bailey and MMOC were elected on the seventh count. This time around, Ossian Smyth (Greens) is probably going to take the first seat based on his party's performance in the local elections but I'd see RBB taking the second seat.

All RBB has to do is sit back and wait for the transfers from other hard left candidates, in particular SF and the Social Democrats. Where else are left wing votes going to go? In 2016, he didn't even need transfers from Labour, he was already over the line when Carrie Smyth was eliminated.

Number of factors really,
Water isnt an issue anymore, People have More Money in their pockets, A sizeable amount of his Vote will go to the Greens, (look at PBP's Vote in the locals in 2019, Who Swayths went across to the greens from PBP)

Gareth Keenan

starbaby2003 wrote: »

Has anyone had any callers yet ?
I see OS, RBB, CD not sure about the fourth seat. MMOC stood by MB she might suffer for that.

We missed Barry Ward on the 1st night that the election was called (Sandycove).

In other news, the local FG are blaming the Dublin meeja already....

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1219538283367190529?s=19

scrumqueen

Peregrine wrote: »

Ossian Smyth has been very busy in that constituency for a couple of years and the party surge could help him top the poll.

Mary Mitchell O'Connor will get back in. The other two haven't a hope.

There's one FF seat there. Probably Devlin. Hanafin has a lot of baggage but I wouldn't be shocked if she gets in over Devlin either.

I think Richard Boyd Barret will keep his seat.

Ossian Smyth will get a seat, he's a good cc, steady, puts in the work.

Hanafin topped the poll at LE 19, I couldn't believe it, so I would say she's confident enough of getting back in.

However, I did see some twitter chatter about Hanafin being pro life and if it is true and the repeal voters come out and remember that then she would be in trouble, But that is a lot of 'if's'!

I don't recall seeing her at any of the DL 8th meetings.

Agent Smith

Gareth Keenan wrote: »

We missed Barry Ward on the 1st night that the election was called (Sandycove).

In other news, the local FG are blaming the Dublin meeja already....

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1219538283367190529?s=19

I'd Imagine you read an internal Campaign mail from FF/SF/LAB/Etc you'd get roughly the same thing!

scrumqueen wrote: »

Ossian Smyth will get a seat, he's a good cc, steady, puts in the work.

Hanafin topped the poll at LE 19, I couldn't believe it, so I would say she's confident enough of getting back in.

However, I did see some twitter chatter about Hanafin being pro life and if it is true and the repeal voters come out and remember that then she would be in trouble, But that is a lot of 'if's'!

I don't recall seeing her at any of the DL 8th meetings.

Mary Hannifin Was Anti Choice, According to Dun Laoghaire Together for Yes

starbaby2003

Agent Smith wrote: »

I'd Imagine you read an internal Campaign mail from FF/SF/LAB/Etc you'd get roughly the same thing!




Mary Hannifin Was Anti Choice, According to Dun Laoghaire Together for Yes

Surprisingly according to Wikipedia so is Cormac. Anyone know if this is true ?

Tabnabs

starbaby2003 wrote: »

Surprisingly according to Wikipedia so is Cormac. Anyone know if this is true ?

He's pro-life/anti-choice according to this website for pro-lifers.
https://prolifecampaign.ie/main/election2019/dun-laoghaire-rathdown-county-council/

FF are still a very social conservative party. Socially conservative and financially liberal, the worst of both worlds :pac:

starbaby2003

I couldn’t give anyone who thinks they know better than the person in the situation a vote.

frash

coylemj wrote: »

Do we know for certain that Maria Bailey will not run as an independent? Nominations close at noon this Wednesday Jan 22nd.

No late show from Bailey
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/maria-bailey-will-not-seek-re-election-after-extremely-difficult-months-976979.html

Agent Smith

John Waters has announced he's running for ACI.

Larbre34

Agent Smith wrote: »

John Waters has announced he's running for ACI.

Must be the day for clowns announcing.

He's some masochist for the humiliations all the same. Unfortunately as a very small fish in a very big pond this time around, I doubt we will see any of his entertaining lunacy on the airwaves. Unless of course he makes up with Eamonn Dunphy, only to sit down for a chat and tell him to **** off again.

scrumqueen

Larbre34 wrote: »

Must be the day for clowns announcing.

He's some masochist for the humiliations all the same. Unfortunately as a very small fish in a very big pond this time around, I doubt we will see any of his entertaining lunacy on the airwaves. Unless of course he makes up with Eamonn Dunphy, only to sit down for a chat and tell him to **** off again.

Christ on a bike, I thought he said he would f*ck off to Spain if repeal passed.

Larbre34

scrumqueen wrote: »

Christ on a bike, I thought he said he would f*ck off to Spain if repeal passed.

He did. It seems on twitter that many, many people are reminding him of that fact.

People with political ambitions really ought to learn the meaning of the phrase 'hostage to fortune'

Agent Smith

scrumqueen wrote: »

Christ on a bike, I thought he said he would f*ck off to Spain if repeal passed.

Naturally coming back and running in one of the more Pro-Choice Constituencies in the country was the right fit...

ted1

Gibney is out, replaced by another SD Cllr

Agent Smith

ted1 wrote: »

Gibney is out, replaced by another SD Cllr

List updated.

that must be a kicker for them, All those posters printed and gone up, then for her to withdraw at the last min!

coylemj

Official list of candidates for the Dail constituency of Dun Laoghaire ....

https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/97-nominated-candidates-2020-dun-laoghaire

rubadub

Agent Smith wrote: »

that must be a kicker for them, All those posters printed and gone up, then for her to withdraw at the last min!

Of the 2 posters I saw of hers one was against the council safety rules and the other was illegal as it was blocking the view of traffic lights.

Nothing compared to FG though who are actively targetting ESB poles even though there is a huge choice of places to put them up still.

Agent Smith

coylemj wrote: »

Official list of candidates for the Dail constituency of Dun Laoghaire ....

https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/97-nominated-candidates-2020-dun-laoghaire

Con Óg Ó Laoghaire Added to the poll

Richard Hillman

RBB is a lock and will probably top the first round poll. The rest of the vote is too fractious. Sinn Fein will see increases.

I will be voting Con Óg Ó Laoghaire - Irish Freedom Party. He was added to the poll after I voted.

It will be
1 FF
1 FG
1 GP
1 PBP

coylemj

Richard Hillman wrote: »

RBB is a lock and will probably top the first round poll.

Not a chance. Ossian Smyth will head the poll. A Green candidate was elected on the first count in every area in the local election.

Richard Hillman wrote: »

Sinn Fein will see increases.

That won't be difficult, based on their abysmal showing in the local election.

Richard Hillman wrote: »

I will be voting Con Óg Ó Laoghaire - Irish Freedom Party. He was added to the poll after I voted.

You have two votes?

Larbre34

I expect Cormac Devlin to top the poll without reaching the quota, rather than the competent but not compelling Ossian Smyth, but I agree with 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Grn, 1 PBP

Agent Smith

Larbre34 wrote: »

I expect Cormac Devlin to top the poll without reaching the quota, rather than the competent but not compelling Ossian Smyth, but I agree with 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Grn, 1 PBP

I'm not so sure, I think (based on the locals) the green's look to top the poll,

I'd also think Cormac will suffer because his support of the 8th Amendment
Considering Dun laoghagire was the second highest voting area for Repeal. The Anti Choice vote can be split between Aontú, ACI, FF and the IFP

coylemj

Larbre34 wrote: »

I expect Cormac Devlin to top the poll without reaching the quota...........

In 2016 he got less than half the first preferences of MMOC and Bailey and he was well behind his FF running mate Mary Hanafin. What has changed in the meantime?

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=113

scrumqueen

coylemj wrote: »

In 2016 he got less than half the first preferences of MMOC and Bailey and he was well behind his FF running mate Mary Hanafin. What has changed in the meantime?

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=113

She made out very well in locals so it could go either way TBH but she has previous outings as a TD on her side so she's more of a known quantity to voters I guess.

Larbre34

coylemj wrote: »

In 2016 he got less than half the first preferences of MMOC and Bailey and he was well behind his FF running mate Mary Hanafin. What has changed in the meantime?

https://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2016&cons=113

Profile, profile, profile.

There is a tangible generation change across the Nation, not to mind Hanafin's association with the FF led crash and ultra conservative past.

Hanafin has never gone near a house outside the Mount Merrion Avenue square mile, but Devlin has a good standard social media campaign and is rarely home so often does he turn up at things. He had an effective year as Cathaoirleach of DLR since the last election and is widely recognised. Can anyone say they have seen Hanafin since the trigger was pulled on this poll 10 days ago?

She's only there to make up numbers, Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.

scrumqueen

Larbre34 wrote: »

Profile, profile, profile.

There is a tangible generation change across the Nation, not to mind Hanafin's association with the FF led crash and ultra conservative past.

Hanafin has never gone near a house outside the Mount Merrion Avenue square mile, but Devlin has a good standard social media campaign and is rarely home so often does he turn up at things. He had an effective year as Cathaoirleach of DLR since the last election and is widely recognised. Can anyone say they have seen Hanafin since the trigger was pulled on this poll 10 days ago?

She's only there to make up numbers, Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.

Hanafin was at Blackrock dart this morning, didn't have the appetite to be grilling her so kept going.

coylemj

Larbre34 wrote: »

.... Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.

You're suggesting that he's a good fit for 'this highly liberal constituency?'

Funny, then, that he was against removing the 8th amendment......

https://prolifecampaign.ie/main/dun-laoghaire-use-your-vote-to-protect-human-life/

He didn't even want a referendum held in the first place .....

http://ecouncil.dlrcoco.ie:9071/ieIssueDetails.aspx?IId=37706&PlanId=0&Opt=3

Despite his efforts, when we did get to vote on the subject, 77% of the votes in DL were in favour of removing the 8th amendment. I find it remarkable that FF is running two candidates who were in favour of retention. Both of them are clearly out of tune with their constituents.

Larbre34

On one issue, one that is settled. Neither had a vote in the matter of holding the referendum.

As liberal as DL is, it still has FF and FG votes, because its traditional Labour movement is so poor locally these days. So, 1 PBP 1 Grn and space for one FF and one FG, as I've said I think it will be Devlin over Hanafin.

coylemj

Larbre34 wrote: »

On one issue, one that is settled. Neither had a vote in the matter of holding the referendum.

So why didn't he abstain?

By voting against the motion (to hold a referendum to repeal the 8th) he was effectively saying that he wanted that wording to remain in the constitution and that the electorate should be denied the option to remove it. Which they eventually did, by a margin of 77% to 23% in Dun Laoghaire.

But you still claim that: 'Devlin is the future and in this highly liberal constituency, he will be returned.' If he's the future then God help us!

Agent Smith

Larbre34 wrote: »

On one issue, one that is settled. Neither had a vote in the matter of holding the referendum.

As liberal as DL is, it still has FF and FG votes, because its traditional Labour movement is so poor locally these days. So, 1 PBP 1 Grn and space for one FF and one FG, as I've said I think it will be Devlin over Hanafin.

The 3 FG candidates were in favor of Marriage Equality and Repeal, Kinda hard to Lump them in with the 2 FF candidates who opposed Repeal and The 1 (Hanafin) who opposed Marriage Equality

Larbre34

That motion before the Council was well in advance of the shape of what Repeal of the Eighth would look like and would be replaced by. It was proposed by PBP as a stunt at the time, with everyone knowing full well that they could have passed a motion to paint the sky green and it would have mattered as little.

Personally I favoured the referendum when it came and voted 'Yes' but theres an odd feeling on the Boards threads around the election that all parties and indeed individuals ought be defined entirely by their actions around The 8th, going so far as to paint Aontú as a right-wing Party just because of their conservative stance on this matter, when they clearly are socialist in nature.

L1011

Larbre34 wrote: »

going so far as to paint Aontú as a right-wing Party just because of their conservative stance on this matter, when they clearly are socialist in nature.

Aontu are picking up many right-wing members as its the only anti-choice political vehicle with elected representatives and any chance of more.

Look at what happened to Renua in terms of Catholic right wing entryism (although obviously they were centre right anyway) and expect it all to happen again.

Larbre34

L1011 wrote: »

Aontu are picking up many right-wing members as its the only anti-choice political vehicle with elected representatives and any chance of more.

No doubt, but thats an existential problem for themselves and their ideology.

Edgware

coylemj wrote: »

You're suggesting that he's a good fit for 'this highly liberal constituency?'

Funny, then, that he was against removing the 8th amendment......

https://prolifecampaign.ie/main/dun-laoghaire-use-your-vote-to-protect-human-life/

He didn't even want a referendum held in the first place .....

http://ecouncil.dlrcoco.ie:9071/ieIssueDetails.aspx?IId=37706&PlanId=0&Opt=3

Despite his efforts, when we did get to vote on the subject, 77% of the votes in DL were in favour of removing the 8th amendment. I find it remarkable that FF is running two candidates who were in favour of retention. Both of them are clearly out of tune with their constituents.

On those figures not with 23% which is enough to get over the line. Or maybe there is no room in Kingstown for someone wih a different opinion

frash

Edgware wrote: »

On those figures not with 23% which is enough to get over the line. Or maybe there is no room in Kingstown for someone wih a different opinion

:eek:

scrumqueen

RBB coming off very well from feedback around the place on last nights Leaders Debate on CB Live.

I wonder will it be enough to keep his seat. I see Paddy Power have him down as a dead cert.

coylemj

Edgware wrote: »

On those figures not with 23% which is enough to get over the line. Or maybe there is no room in Kingstown for someone wih a different opinion

Are you a slogan writer for John Waters?

23% would be 'enough to get over the line' (the quota will be 20% of the valid poll) if all of the people who were against repealing the 8th amendment voted for a single anti-repeal candidate in this election.

But there are four such candidates - Devlin (FF), Hanafin (FF), Toibin (Aontu) and John Waters (Ind.).

A lot of that anti-repeal vote would have been traditional FF and FG voters. The vast bulk of whom will loyally vote for their party's candidates in a general election. So Waters and Toibin will not get any significant share of that 23%.