Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

StoptheClocks

KGLady wrote: »

A candidate's quality is more important than their gender or sexuality, sure Burton hasn't exactly been strong on women's issues in recent years anyway.

I've just pointed out that they are women and they lost their seats.

ongarite

Zaph wrote: »

Yeah, I just said the same thing to my wife. Doesn't bode well for the future of FF in Dublin West.

There was an good article on RTE pointing out this fact, that the over 65 vote was FF highest % of vote.
That's not good for future of the party, especially in urban areas where FF have struggled since 2008.

Zaph

StoptheClocks wrote: »

We have lost 2 women TD's and it doesn't look like Leo will be Taoiseach but we have more than one gay TD now. We're very progressive.

Burton was gone anyway, Labour's showing in the election had been pitiful and she's a victim of that. From what I've read Coppinger alienated a lot of people with her "vote for me because I'm a woman" stance. She shouldn't have insulted people's intelligence with that nonsense, the electorate is more savvy than that and they saw through her bluster that she had nothing substantial to back it up. A poor candidate is a poor candidate, regardless of whether they're male or female.

StoptheClocks

Zaph wrote: »

Burton was gone anyway, Labour's showing in the election had been pitiful and she's a victim of that. From what I've read Coppinger alienated a lot of people with her "vote for me because I'm a woman" stance. She shouldn't have insulted people's intelligence with that nonsense, the electorate is more savvy than that and they saw through her bluster that she had nothing substantial to back it up. A poor candidate is a poor candidate, regardless of whether they're male or female.

Yes, I switched to O'Gorman because of her leaflet about repeal the 8th and women and workers.
I thought fairplay to Joan for running, She could have retired but she gave it a go.

Zaph

StoptheClocks wrote: »

I thought fairplay to Joan for running, She could have retired but she gave it a go.

I think Joan should have retired before the election anyway. She's 71 and has more than served her time. Labour were never going to win a seat in this election anyway, so they should have given a younger candidate a chance to get their name out there and pick up some general election experience in anticipation of future elections.

Caranica

Hurrache wrote: »

I never heard of her until canvassing.

If you're not in castleknock lea you probably wouldn't have. Elected to the council in May for the first time

Nijmegen

The job for Currie is not to win a seat but to raise her profile so that when Varadkar retires as a TD she can take the seat.

A Knight of Ireland

StoptheClocks wrote: »

We have lost 2 women TD's and it doesn't look like Leo will be Taoiseach but we have more than one gay TD now. We're very progressive.

Is Roderic gay?

Zaph

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Is Roderic gay?

Yes

AlanG

Nijmegen wrote: »

The job for Currie is not to win a seat but to raise her profile so that when Varadkar retires as a TD she can take the seat.

This and FG needed to fill their gender quota - Pascal even had a running mate in spite of the fact his seat wasn't even safe. Currie has been quite active locally the last couple of years so hopefully she continues to work hard as a councilor even after this set back.

Polar101

Nijmegen wrote: »

The job for Currie is not to win a seat but to raise her profile so that when Varadkar retires as a TD she can take the seat.

Last time his running mate was Catherine Noone, wonder what happened to her?

Edit: actually just noticed she was running in Dublin Bay North and didn't do great.

Hurrache

AlanG wrote: »

This and FG needed to fill their gender quota - Pascal even had a running mate in spite of the fact his seat wasn't even safe. Currie has been quite active locally the last couple of years so hopefully she continues to work hard as a councilor even after this set back.

It's of no use if local pretty much means she hardly leaves her own area in the constituency though. And in fairness she's not alone in this.

Caranica

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Is Roderic gay?

Kissing his male partner when he got elected was a big clue

A Knight of Ireland

Caranica wrote: »

Kissing his male partner when he got elected was a big clue

I didn't see any of that.

Dublin Mum

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

I didn't see any of that.

Neither did I. His seat was confirmed fairly late in the proceedings. Media seemed to be filled with Paul Donnelly’s fairly early success and Leo’s despondency.

chucknorris

In the last week of the 2016 GE, The socialists ran a campaign of knocking on doors and informing people that Paul Donnelly was safe and to consider giving herself a number 1.

It worked.

Paul Donnelly really should have been elected in 2016 and missed a trick.

This time out no such trick was missed but the socialists tried it again in the final week. Ruth really should have been pulled over for the 4th seat by Paul Donnellys surplus but wasn't and so as I see it, her election strategy from four years ago essentially became her undoing this time out as the Shinners did not promote a left leaning preference from their support base specifically in Dublin west.

A Knight of Ireland

I think people have seen through Ruth this time. People were willing to give her a shot in 2016 but in reality, what has she done for the Dublin 15 electorate? Her campaign this time round was based on Women's Rights and the Repeal and I honestly think people were fed up with the same aul rhetoric from her. In the Dail, she was just one of those bold children who kept shouting from the sidelines and contributed nothing.

I don't think the RSE bill going through the Dail did her any favours either...the thoughts of 4-year-olds being taught about masturbation and self-pleasure didn't rub well with people too.

Hurrache

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

Dail did her any favours either...the thoughts of 4-year-olds being taught about masturbation and self-pleasure didn't rub well with people too.

Such thoughts were only in the heads of fools and gob****es.

KGLady

chucknorris wrote: »

In the last week of the 2016 GE, The socialists ran a campaign of knocking on doors and informing people that Paul Donnelly was safe and to consider giving herself a number 1.

It worked.

And they are STILL denying it and saying its baseless rumours and calling us liars. It pisses me off, sleeveen enough to lie to voters, and then call us the liars after the fact. Their double standards are sickening.

Larbre34

A Knight of Ireland wrote: »

I don't think the RSE bill going through the Dail did her any favours either...the thoughts of 4-year-olds being taught about masturbation and self-pleasure didn't rub well with people too.

I'd be more concerned about the people who construed the conversation about reform to school based RSE as being what you describe. Nothing more than an utterly baseless, vexatious campaign of misinformation originating from small groups of warped lying extremists, criticising proposals that don't even exist yet. To address the point directly, I sincerely doubt that this was an issue for Coppingers base vote, not known for being either religious or conservative, or gullible for that matter. Coppinger lost to an effective political ground campaign, I won't say fair and square because by all accounts it was dirty enough.

Nijmegen

Polar101 wrote: »

Last time his running mate was Catherine Noone, wonder what happened to her?

Edit: actually just noticed she was running in Dublin Bay North and didn't do great.

Noone is your definition of a carpet bagger who would run for anything so she could later get her senate seat. I think she won 1 local election in her entire life and her parliamentary assistant Noel Rock actually managed to become a TD (in a heavily working class constituency, which he lost out in this time).

Currie is a local councillor and daughter of a former local Dublin West TD (and yeah, rolls eyes at the family business of politics) so she has roots here. Getting her profile up in a run at the general is doing her duty for the party and will give her strong billing to be the next FG nominee for the constituency after Leo the Lion retires from the circus for his nice EU or WHO or something job.

As for Ruth Coppinger losing the final seat to the greens, at least you know the Green Party has constructive policies it wants implemented. I can’t see the socialists and their various shades actually going into government and then staying there without a big split over some minor point of Marxist / Trotskyite difference on the price of fish a few weeks in. They’re irresponsible student politicians who refuse to grow up and aren’t as fun to read about as Peter Pan. Meanwhile the Green Wave will either go into government or move whoever does to implement some seriously needed policies on climate change as they look over their shoulder at the votes available to people who take the issue of environment seriously.

JupiterKid

I have a feeling that votes for Roderic O'Gorman ate heavily into Joan Burton's base - middle class centre-left leaning voters - and those for Paul Donnelly ate into Coppinger's, costing both women their seats.

Leo is pretty safe in his Castleknock base - they always vote for their own and Jack Chambers has inherited the FF Lenihan base. I very much doubt either men get much support in Blanchardstown, Tyrrellstown or Clonsilla.

Given the continued growth and development of Dublin 15, at some point the constituency will grow to a 5 seater barring another redrawing of boundaries. the last boundary change saw the outer parts of Dublin 7 (where I live now) become Dublin West which must have shaken things up a bit.

Nijmegen

I wonder would it grow even ex-boundary changes given the amount of new housing going in to D15.

D7 will help Labour and left wing parties.

L1011

I tried to make some guesses off the boundaries and % under/over the average in the 2016 census but its basically futile as there will probably be at least 5 additional seats (based on current population estimates) added after the 2021 census; mostly in Dublin. There'll be major redrawing rather than tweaks then.

There needs to be a TD per 30k population at most, 20k at minimum. We used to run closer to the max - 166 from 1981-2011, which was extremely close to the maximum allowable by population from the 1979* census - but that was changed to closer to the minimum in 2011 and we're now at the absolute bare minimum so there will have to be a lot added.

I'd expect an entire additional constituency in Dublin and smaller boundaries for the others rather than more 5 seaters cause recently the Constituency Commissions seem to dislike 5s.

*this was held three years late cause the country couldn't afford it; should have been 1976.

Caranica

They actually got rid of a constituency in Dublin when they merged Dublin North Central with Dublin North East to make Dublin Bay North.

They tinker with the boundaries too often imo. I know people who've been to-ing and fro-ing between two Dublin constituencies for about 5 elections.

Jebus Diced

I'm noticing all the tie straps littered all over the place today,
Half of the tie straps still stuck onto their pole's/railings etc.
Half of the tie straps cut and just dropped on to the grass/ground below where the posters were displayed.

Totally disgusting behaviour from the candidates who wanted to be elected.

chucknorris

KGLady wrote: »

And they are STILL denying it and saying its baseless rumours and calling us liars. It pisses me off, sleeveen enough to lie to voters, and then call us the liars after the fact. Their double standards are sickening.

A number of friends in my Whatsapp group got the knock so certainly not a rumor but an absolute strategy.

LoonyLovegood

I was tallying, and actually shocked how Leo did out in Ongar/Castaheany. He wasn't topping the poll by any stretch, but coming fourth and fifth out there when I'd have expected him to be down near the bottom. Chambers votes just plummet the further you get from Castleknock.

Had a few FF-ers saying he wouldn't be at the count centre till he was about to be elected because he "doesn't like the media". Considering his Claire Byrne showings, that wouldn't shock me...

holly_johnson

Is there any way to find out what the tallies or vote count was for a particular box? I’d love to know how mine voted.

L1011

holly_johnson wrote: »

Is there any way to find out what the tallies or vote count was for a particular box? I’d love to know how mine voted.

If you know a politician involved in the tally they will likely know this - but may not be willing to tell you.