Election called for Saturday 8 February

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle.

The polling companies constantly adjust their methodology to take account of such trends. A 2016 adaptation is unlikely (but not impossible) to be repeated.

We can only rely on what we know - Fine Gael are currently within the margin of error of their 2016 performance, which is not the calamitous decline that the other poster was implying.

That may change, let's wait and see.

The people haven't voted yet. We can only go on the polling and FG are way below what they polled last time out on average...one poll put them at 26% all the rest were much higher.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The people haven't voted yet. We can only go on the polling and FG are way below what they polled last time out on average...one poll put them at 26% all the rest were much higher.

Fine Gael are polling within the margin of error of where they finished the last time out, that is the only bit that is factual.

Loafing Oaf

Deleted User wrote: »

Then it’ll be as you were. FG with support from FF but not a coalition.

But presumably that would require FG to be the larger party?

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Fine Gael are polling within the margin of error of where they finished the last time out, that is the only bit that is factual.

But when it comes to SF we are told...'last time out they did well in the polls but...etc etc.

Can't use the polls last time for FG (cos it doesn't suit) but we can for SF.

Good man.

Phoebas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

But when it comes to SF we are told...'last time out they did well in the polls but...etc etc.

Can't use the polls last time for FG (cos it doesn't suit) but we can for SF.

Good man.

There's a clear pattern of SF underperforming on election day compared with how they were polling.

Hard to say exactly why - a mix of being transfer toxic and their core demographics not turning out to vote.
I'd expect that to be less of a factor this time out, but it is definitely a thing.

smurgen

Phoebas wrote: »

There's a clear pattern of SF underperforming on election day compared with how they were polling.

Hard to say exactly why - a mix of being transfer toxic and their core demographics not turning out to vote.
I'd expect that to be less of a factor this time out, but it is definitely a thing.

It's probably the engineered negative press regarding the party and slurs in the final days of the election.methinks it's a tactic that won't work this election mind.

FrancieBrady

Phoebas wrote: »

There's a clear pattern of SF underperforming on election day compared with how they were polling.

Hard to say exactly why - a mix of being transfer toxic and their core demographics not turning out to vote.
I'd expect that to be less of a factor this time out, but it is definitely a thing.

I know that. Because it is there in the data.

There was a clear pattern for FG last time too...high 20's to 31% in the polls and only got 23% in the election.

If that pattern were to repeat - 20-23% in the polls so far and the polls were 5 or 6% out - then FG will finish in the mid teens.

Blanch is using the polls to try and say that FG are treading water, that is an unknown to be honest.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

I don’t think that we’ll have a government this side of Easter. There’ll be a lot of discussions to be had. Then it’ll be as you were. FG with support from FF but not a coalition.

It might be a bit faster as parties now know how the whole thing works. There may even be, for the first time, enthusiasm expressed by all TDs to enter government rather than the usual automatic stampede for opposition.

FrancieBrady

smurgen wrote: »

It's probably the engineered negative press regarding the party and slurs in the final days of the election.methinks it's a tactic that won't work this election mind.

I think it's people like me who sway these things TBH.

Initially saying they are going to make the change from the established parties and getting persuaded away over the course of the campaign.

I don't think SF have been ready for government up to this - I actually don't think they are ready to be the main partner in a coalition.

But I think they are certainly ready to partner in government this time. And Ireland is well overdue a change from the powerswap.

I think we are entering the phase of our history now that will see the end of one of the two FF or FG.
I personally think it will be FG.

Phoebas

FG underperformed the polls last time around, but that doesn't make it a clear pattern for them.

What we saw was their polling numbers going southward during the campaign and the results followed that trajectory.
That may well be the case this time too, but I don't think you can say that there is a pattern of FG underperforming like there is with SF.

Wanderer78

FrancieBrady wrote:

I think we are entering the phase of our history now that will see the end of one of the two FF or FG. I personally think it will be FG.

FF and fg will be just fine after this ge, very little is gonna change, as we re not ready for that

FrancieBrady

Phoebas wrote: »

FG underperformed the polls last time around, but that doesn't make it a clear pattern for them.

What we saw was their polling numbers going southward during the campaign and the results followed that trajectory.
That may well be the case this time too, but I don't think you can say that there is a pattern of FG underperforming like there is with SF.

If you are going to use the last election to suggest FG are treading water this time(which is what the poster was trying to say) then you have to use what the polls last time said too. And the majority of the polls had FG in the high 20's and a number had them at 30% and over.

FrancieBrady

Wanderer78 wrote: »

FF and fg will be just fine after this ge, very little is gonna change, as we re not ready for that

Won't happen after this election. But I think the fall in the percentage share of the vote will hit critical mass at some point and one party will decline faster than the other. May never disappear but will certainly diminish.

Wanderer78

FrancieBrady wrote:

Won't happen after this election. But I think the fall in the percentage share of the vote will hit critical mass at some point and one party will decline faster than the other. May never disappear but will certainly diminish.

Ah it's impossible to accurately predict future events, but I fear these two behemoths will never go away

Phoebas

I wouldn't take FGs performance in the last election as a guide at all, because, as I said, it doesn't constitute a pattern of voter behaviour.

As to whether FG are threading water, I'm personally doubtful but this weekend's polls should answer that.

FrancieBrady

Phoebas wrote: »

I wouldn't take FGs performance in the last election as a guide at all, because, as I said, it doesn't constitute a pattern of voter behaviour.

As to whether FG are threading water, I'm personally doubtful but this weekend's polls should answer that.

Go back to 2011 then..they finished 3-4 points below where they were polling.
That happens this time they are below 20%.

Personally I think Leo is dragging them back but he is dragging them back from the low teens or 20% in reality. Can he land a few more big punches on Martin is the question or will he go for the 'trust us' strategy he is getting some traction from?

Jinglejangle69

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irelands-construction-sector-under-celtic-21387926?fbclid=IwAR2raCfUZaVSQnYyW1IZVFbSvg3CeAO2Z3xzsOHlBhIVobiGA4IvYBoFhcg

"More than 30,000 extra workers are needed to meet housing targets as the market is being stoked by annual rising costs"

Any party claiming more houses could be built then is at this moment are lying.

FrancieBrady

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irelands-construction-sector-under-celtic-21387926?fbclid=IwAR2raCfUZaVSQnYyW1IZVFbSvg3CeAO2Z3xzsOHlBhIVobiGA4IvYBoFhcg

"More than 30,000 extra workers are needed to meet housing targets as the market is being stoked by annual rising costs"

Any party claiming more houses could be built then is at this moment are lying.

Leo just did on S O'R. He said we would need to take in workers to build the extra houses they propose. When asked where the extra workers would live...he said 'we would manage like the last time'.

Wanderer78

FrancieBrady wrote:

Leo just did on S O'R. He said we would need to take in workers to build the extra houses they propose. When asked where the extra workers would live...he said 'we would manage like the last time'.

Family hubs then!

Jinglejangle69

And as I said they are all lying.

Its impossible.

They should be all called out in it.

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But presumably that would require FG to be the larger party?

I think FF have too many candidates and the vote might be split, to their cost. In tipperary, they have Jackie Cahill against two women. One running mate would have made more sense.

Dytalus

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/irelands-construction-sector-under-celtic-21387926?fbclid=IwAR2raCfUZaVSQnYyW1IZVFbSvg3CeAO2Z3xzsOHlBhIVobiGA4IvYBoFhcg

"More than 30,000 extra workers are needed to meet housing targets as the market is being stoked by annual rising costs"

Any party claiming more houses could be built then is at this moment are lying.

I don't recall the other manifestos as well (haven't read them as recently), but at least the Greens include mention of this, with a plan to support apprenticeship programs to get the workers we need.

As always with party promises it's no guarantee they can do it, but the lack of workers isn't left unaddressed. I'd need to re-read the other manifestos to see if the other parties have anything similar planned.

blanch152

Phoebas wrote: »

FG underperformed the polls last time around, but that doesn't make it a clear pattern for them.

What we saw was their polling numbers going southward during the campaign and the results followed that trajectory.
That may well be the case this time too, but I don't think you can say that there is a pattern of FG underperforming like there is with SF.

Agreed, their polling numbers went southward during the campaign and the results matched that.

This time, they had a significant fall at the start of the campaign, been steady since, and are within the margin of error of 2016. As you say elsewhere, this weekend's polls will tell us a lot.

The key thing to look out for this weekend is trends. Even if Sinn Fein perform less well on election day than in the polls, and FF overperform, the direction of travel this weekend for them and for others will tell us how the campaign is going.

I suspect myself a further rise for Sinn Fein as the people are buying into the "we can all party again" agenda that they are spouting. Only question is whether this will be seen through by election day, I fear not.

Water John

The SF policy of abolishing property tax really is dangerous. The last thing we need is a narrowing of the tax base.
My gut feeling is FG will not do as well as 2016, FF improve a little, SF, Greens, and LB will increase. Inds will fall significantly.
Whilst polls show the Greens only up a little, it is always further down the ballot that they really are, transfer friendly. Could pass out a SF candidate, who may have polled stronger in 1st preferences.

Dyr

Water John wrote: »

The SF policy of abolishing property tax really is dangerous. The last thing we need is a narrowing of the tax base.
My gut feeling is FG will not do as well as 2016, FF improve a little, SF, Greens, and LB will increase. Inds will fall significantly.
Whilst polls show the Greens only up a little, it is always further down the ballot that they really are, transfer friendly. Could pass out a SF candidate, who may have polled stronger in 1st preferences.

Yeah, I imagine SF will be worried about how transfer friendly the Greens are in comparison to them.

IAMAMORON

Who is Fiona Foyle?

I must have heard her name a thousand times in the last week.

When I asked my Da who she was he just grunted and said " der only a shower a xxnts" .

" why " I replied, ears pricked.

" she'd have ya broke " he said.

Loafing Oaf

Deleted User wrote: »

I think FF have too many candidates and the vote might be split, to their cost. In tipperary, they have Jackie Cahill against two women. One running mate would have made more sense.

Even so, I would be astonished if they emerged with fewer seats than FG.

Idbatterim

Water John wrote: »

The SF policy of abolishing property tax really is dangerous. The last thing we need is a narrowing of the tax base.
My gut feeling is FG will not do as well as 2016, FF improve a little, SF, Greens, and LB will increase. Inds will fall significantly.
Whilst polls show the Greens only up a little, it is always further down the ballot that they really are, transfer friendly. Could pass out a SF candidate, who may have polled stronger in 1st preferences.

I think it would be idiocy to abolish it (introducing any new tax here is near a nightmare for government, if / when the **** hits the fan again, that would be one obvious tax to increase) but would mean those paying in by far the most , would benefit, which I would agree with. But what madness, proposing to abolish it and then being pro massive spending increases on welfare, health, housing etc... :rolleyes:

James Brown

It's going to be close. FF are losing their luster. True to form if FG come out on top FF will want in and FG will have them. The rivalry is family rivalry and both don't want SF in.
This is why the country will never achieve it's full potential. Transport and green initiatives should be a doddle in such a small country and as for housing, we have the sites, the workers and the money, (25 year leases, hotels, private rentals) but not the will, because big business is more important and affluent than the working tax payer.

FOI documents reveal 359 vacant development sites lying idle
Information released to RTÉ Investigates under Freedom of Information indicates that development land, with the potential to provide an estimated 18,500 to 20,700 homes on 359 vacant sites across the country, is simply lying idle.
https://www.rte.ie/news/investigations-unit/2020/0124/1110500-vacant-sites/

Time we invested in the country for the people not business on low taxes.

Mortelaro

You do realise business on low taxes create jobs which takes people off the dole and stops emigration leading to increased expenditure in the economy and even more jobs, yeah?