Property Market 2020

Villa05

Assetbacked wrote:

If social distancing is required for another 6 months then the government absolutely must underwrite all businesses in the State.

Impossible task, sometimes you just have to take the pain. If the UK Government came close to insolvency this year, surely we are closer.

Property related costs are the highest expense for most small business. If it is too high for current conditions it needs to come down in price just like it went up in periods of high demand

Wage costs will fall as dictated by demand. Less staff for less demand. Stimulate demand by a reduced vat rate maybe, but it would be nuts to go any further.

Use stimulus to tackle the housing supply imbalance. This will help reduce rents and property prices. This will help small business in reduced rents on there premises as well as increased demand as customers spending less on accomodation will have more to spend in local employment creating business, thereby sowing the seeds of recovery

We just have to adapt, maintaining everything at January 2020 levels is not possible, creating the conditions for getting back there is

JimmyVik

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Theres currently 1900 properties listed on daft to rent in Dublin.

Not a big shock really half the county have moved home for covid, you cant justify playing 1000 euro + a month for a room when your employer / college is allowing you to wfh.

I spend about 3 weeks trying to rent somewhere in March/April.
So many listings. The ones who did get back to me were all short term rentals. And they never mentioned it in the advert. Infuriating

Smouse156

JimmyVik wrote: »

I spend about 3 weeks trying to rent somewhere in March/April.
So many listings. The ones who did get back to me were all short term rentals. And they never mentioned it in the advert. Infuriating

I assume you found a place in the end? Was there much of a discount on asking price?

awec

awec wrote: »

Social distancing is going to come under intense scrutiny once it becomes apparent that it's going to kill many businesses that otherwise would be able to survive.

You can see the start of it already with the 2m cut to 1m argument.

Many folk won't darken the door of any establishment not facilitating social distancing, so those businesses will be fooked anyway IMO.

JimmyVik

Smouse156 wrote: »

I assume you found a place in the end? Was there much of a discount on asking price?

No. Gave up after 3 weeks.
Still living where I was in the first place. Thinking about buying now, if this price drop happens.
Im on the fence, as I always seem to be

cnocbui

Assetbacked wrote: »

At the same time, social distancing nonsense cannot be required in order for these places to reopen while at the same time supports are withdrawn. It is not fair to tell a business "we're withdrawing supports to you as you can reopen but you need to ensure only a small no. of people are on the premise at any one time". If social distancing is required for another 6 months then the government absolutely must underwrite all businesses in the State.

If social distancing is still thought to be required after all that lock-down, then they might as well give up on all measures and let nature take it's course as social distancing won't make any difference inside buildings given virus laden droplets can hang around in air currents in a room and remain viable for hours.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Impossible task, sometimes you just have to take the pain. If the UK Government came close to insolvency this year, surely we are closer.

Property related costs are the highest expense for most small business. If it is too high for current conditions it needs to come down in price just like it went up in periods of high demand

Wage costs will fall as dictated by demand. Less staff for less demand. Stimulate demand by a reduced vat rate maybe, but it would be nuts to go any further.

Use stimulus to tackle the housing supply imbalance. This will help reduce rents and property prices. This will help small business in reduced rents on there premises as well as increased demand as customers spending less on accomodation will have more to spend in local employment creating business, thereby sowing the seeds of recovery

We just have to adapt, maintaining everything at January 2020 levels is not possible, creating the conditions for getting back there is

far too convenient and simplistic to blame everything on the cost of property / renting. It doesn't matter what the rent is if a proprietor cant open their premises or can only have a small number of people on their premises due to the current regs. Are you blaming the landlord for the premises being too small?

brisan

cnocbui wrote: »

Prices may be affected, but they certainly aren't yet.

https://thepropertypin.com/t/daft-house-price-report-june-2020/88177/6

SozBbz

The_Conductor wrote: »

How do you define a 'good viable restaurant'. Surely every restraunteur out there would imagine themselves to run 'good viable restaurant(s)'.

How do you discriminate in favour of one establishment over another?

How do you allow one restaurant to fail- while simultaneously incentivise a competing establishment up the street?

It just sounds totally unworkable.

Because you only offer subsidies/assistance that makes sense. I never suggested free handouts for all. For example, dropping the VAT back to 9% until the end of the year perhaps. Thats a benefit they only see once they've generated custom. So it would help offset loss of custom due to reduced capacity. The better performing businesses will see more benefit from this.

Or many of the loan schemes ask for evidence of trading information from the previous months/years. Perhaps only offer loans to businesses with a path to return to profitability based on past performance. Places that were not making a whatever is deemed to be a viable profit then wouldn't qualify for such loans on the assumption they'd have gone under sooner or later anyway. Its not perfect but it would be a strong indicator.

Its far easier to keep people in existing jobs that seeking to create new ones in future.

19233974

cnocbui wrote: »

If social distancing is still thought to be required after all that lock-down, then they might as well give up on all measures and let nature take it's course as social distancing won't make any difference inside buildings given virus laden droplets can hang around in air currents in a room and remain viable for hours.

Huh? hand hygienge and social distancing is the best way to avoid transmission, together with the growing evidence for masks. This is not an airborne virus, its droplet transmission.

Nature taking its course is doomed to failure as all the seroprevalence studies so far have showed an infection rate of around 5% in europe.
Until we have a vaccine social distancing and test and trace is the only way to manage it

cnocbui

19233974 wrote: »

Huh? hand hygienge and social distancing is the best way to avoid transmission, together with the growing evidence for masks. This is not an airborne virus, its droplet transmission.

Nature taking its course is doomed to failure as all the seroprevalence studies so far have showed an infection rate of around 5% in europe.
Until we have a vaccine social distancing and test and trace is the only way to manage it

No, hand washing is of only marginal use with masks being by far the best preventative measure against transmission and infection.

The droplets in question are so small as to be verging on vapour. They are too small to see in general. They are of the size everyone exhales with every breath or by just talking. It's splitting hairs to be saying it's not airborne, because it effectively is. Social distancing is pointless when the droplets have been shown to linger for over an hour. The primary means of transmission is inhalation of airborne droplets, which don't come close to abiding by 2m rules.

cnocbui

brisan wrote: »

https://thepropertypin.com/t/daft-house-price-report-june-2020/88177/6

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047890

19233974

cnocbui wrote: »

No, hand washing is of only marginal use with masks being by far the best preventative measure against transmission and infection.

The droplets in question are so small as to be verging on vapour. They are too small to see in general. They are of the size everyone exhales with every breath or by just talking. It's splitting hairs to be saying it's not airborne, because it effectively is. Social distancing is pointless when the droplets have been shown to linger for over an hour. The primary means of transmission is inhalation of airborne droplets, which don't come close to abiding by 2m rules.

Hand washing is only of marginal use? You do realise you are disputing one of the fundamental pillars of infection control? unless you are wearing an ffp2 or 3 mask, then a mask does not actually stop viral spread except acting as a physical barrier for some of the larger droplets.

Also droplets dont verge on vapour, they range in size from where we are dealing with respiratory droplet spread down to when we are dealing with aerosols, ie. when someone is getting intubated etc. you might want to read up on some of the basics of infection control before spouting out rubbish. They survive in the environment but are not airborne.

have a read of this if you want something nice and simple to understand. Its a medical context but gets the point across.

Hand washing and social distancing remain the cornerstone to stop spread.

https://www.bma.org.uk/news-and-opinion/ppe-protect-your-face-wash-your-hands-arms-and-clothes

Graham

Mod Note

cnocbui / 19233974

Accommodation & Property

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

far too convenient and simplistic to blame everything on the cost of property / renting. It doesn't matter what the rent is if a proprietor cant open their premises or can only have a small number of people on their premises due to the current regs. Are you blaming the landlord for the premises being too small?

That's fine let the property owner and the business owner negotiate a rent review that reflects economic reality. Its in both their interests that their respective industries survive. Stimulus before this happens is the taxpayer propping up both. We cannot afford this

Maybe I have an over emphasis on it trying to get my point across.
Rents and insurance were major issues going into covid. Subsidising these businesses now when those are still major issues only prop up the problems that existed before therefore the taxpayer subsidy is wasted.

Funds for stimulus will be very limited, they need to be targeted at areas that maximise return in both employment, efficiency and jobs.


It has cost 30 billion already, that's 15 over budget children's hospitals. The taxpayer can only do so much

brisan

Irish_peppa wrote: »

This 1000000% percent !!!!

EXACT same thing happened me twice, EA could smell how keen i was and this bidding war started. I had to pull the plug as it went over budget. Well low and behold on TWO occasions i was called a few weeks (one time a friday night about 8pm) and the other supposed bidders had on one occasion changed mind and occasion 2 couldnt get bridging loan. They were prepared to accept my last highest bid. On both occasions I said No. They had over played their hand. I think its possibly a good idea to never show that you have your heart set on a place be very non chalent.

WE (my brothers and I )have boght a few house over the years ,both as homes and to upgrade and flip.
I always put in a very lowball offer ,(crazy low ) to give the impression we are interested but not over keen.
You can be bidding against a wall or ghost bids as they are sometimes called
Bidding against the wall is a term used by auctioneers in an actual auction room
Its a game and you have to play it as such
There is more than one forever home out there for everyone .

Assetbacked

Donald Trump wrote: »

You post is akin to arguing that if the government shouldn't bring in more stringent fire regulations to prevent dangerous overcrowding of having 5 bunks in a small bedroom, just because the landlords would need to be compensated for the nonsense of them making less money.

If it's needed for health and safety reasons then that's life. They have to adapt and change. Let the weaker go to the wall. Others will fill the void.

It's not though, Covid19 is not particularly harmful except for the most vulnerable. Plus the hype will die down in a few weeks. My observation of people is that the vast majority don't have the capacity or will power to bother with social distancing with every person they encounter in their daily lives. Another argument to point to how absurd social distancing is is the effect of essentially telling people not to form new physical relationships with others. If you are advocating social distancing you are advocating puritanism, think about that, it is just bonkers.

Making my post relevant to property, and commercial property at that, I believe in letting commercial landlords bear the brunt of businesses threatening to go bust if they don't get reductions in rents, but not without a fair playing field, meaning getting rid of arbitrary, vague social distancing rules for bricks and mortar businesses unless the state will offer supports to help keep the economy going so long as such social distancing measures are required.

sanfranbest

brisan wrote: »

WE (my brothers and I )have boght a few house over the years ,both as homes and to upgrade and flip.
I always put in a very lowball offer ,(crazy low ) to give the impression we are interested but not over keen.
You can be bidding against a wall or ghost bids as they are sometimes called
Bidding against the wall is a term used by auctioneers in an actual auction room
Its a game and you have to play it as such
There is more than one forever home out there for everyone .

How low was your bids compared to asking prices,
say if a house was 400k, what would you offer, how low etc

brisan

sanfranbest wrote: »

How low was your bids compared to asking prices,
say if a house was 400k, what would you offer, how low etc

Anywhere between 10-15% depending on the market
In this market from August Sept onwards I would go 15-20% below .
Cash buyers have an advantage and if you are cash ready or Mortgage approved then bid low
You can always up your bid ,you cant lower it
We got one property at a 20% discount 3 years ago because we were cash and the vendor had inherited the property and wanted to buy a new build and seemingly the Estate he was buying in was selling out fast
A bit of research goes a long way
Some executer sales if there are 5-6 to split a 300k house a 15% decrease is not a big deal to each individual

brisan

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-arrears-covid19-5130663-Jun2020/

The_Conductor

brisan wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/central-bank-mortgage-arrears-covid19-5130663-Jun2020/

You'd have to view the fall in the number of mortgages in longterm arrears to 5.6% (the lowest since 2010) as a positive development. The 4,000 mortgages in short-term arrears in Q1- is entirely explainable by Covid- and vanished once the moratorium was introduced- who knows, it may reassert itself once the moratorium is lifted- but there are good indications that it may be fine.

Lets wait and see- the report is broadly positive in nature.

cnocbui

Seems like the US is experiencing the same unexpected strength in their housing market as appears to be happening here:

It seems counterintuitive. Why get excited about stocks linked to the housing market when millions of people are out of work and worries are increasing that a second wave of the coronavirus is coming?

But like other things about this COVID-plagued economy that have surprised investors, strength in some pockets of the real estate market is completely unexpected. Home prices in the US are rising and demand for mortgages is surging—even with the unemployment rate near record highs.

https://www.investing.com/analysis/heres-why-housinglinked-stocks-are-showing-strength-when-the-economy-isnt-200528533

brisan

cnocbui wrote: »

Seems like the US is experiencing the same unexpected strength in their housing market as appears to be happening here:


https://www.investing.com/analysis/heres-why-housinglinked-stocks-are-showing-strength-when-the-economy-isnt-200528533

Maybe people want out of apartments and into houses ,so people who were quite content to be long term renters now want to buy
Maybe people want out of the cities after lockdown and the riots and are moving now
Will mortgages be available ??

Assetbacked

There is a bubble, the US Fed is underwriting the entire thing. That is still better on a risk v return basis than leaving money in cash or going for low interest rate bonds. Asset prices are being propped up by the Fed via its astronomical QE, economic indicators are all entirely at odds with what is happening in assets such as stocks and property.

It's very ironic/tragic that the gains are kept away from the paws of the public purse via tax efficient structures but when it starts to go tits up, these same entities and individuals that benefitted from the gains cry out for Fed assistance. The US never really suffered after 2008 due to the Fed printing money to prop up the entire system and it is continuing to do that here. The Fed is actually buying corporate bonds, these are loans issued to companies, in a lot of cases they relate to zombie companies with poor outlook or are already past their lifespan. It's so bizarre to see this as I don't know how the Fed can transfer the bonds back into the market as there won't be participants lining up to take on this debt in place of the Fed. So long as the economic chips are not allowed to fall, expect assets to remain stable or even rise.

Where does it end? Social unrest is my guess and populism; Brexit, Trump, the AfD in Germany, SF in Ireland. All of this is just the beginning.

cnocbui

brisan wrote: »

Maybe people want out of apartments and into houses ,so people who were quite content to be long term renters now want to buy
Maybe people want out of the cities after lockdown and the riots and are moving now
Will mortgages be available ??

If mortgages aren't being made available, the banks won't be making much money.

brisan

cnocbui wrote: »

If mortgages aren't being made available, the banks won't be making much money.

Will the american banking authorities allow banks to offer mortgages to unemployed people

combat14

wonder will the new govt jump at this property opportunity


Ireland as new base for millions of Hong kong citizens

https://amp.independent.ie/business/irish/property-tycoon-eyes-ireland-as-new-base-for-millions-of-hong-kong-citizens-39308660.html

PommieBast

combat14 wrote: »

wonder will the new govt jump at this property opportunity


Ireland as new base for millions of Hong kong citizens

https://amp.independent.ie/business/irish/property-tycoon-eyes-ireland-as-new-base-for-millions-of-hong-kong-citizens-39308660.html

"according to the Telegraph". Pass the salt..

Assetbacked

PommieBast wrote: »

"according to the Telegraph". Pass the salt..

According to the article itself "However, these days any structure based on special tax concessions or property incentives would likely fall foul of European State Aid rules, which bar the granting of supports to companies or individuals that are not available to their competitors."

Haha, such nonsense.

Walnut Salad

Assetbacked wrote: »

There is a bubble, the US Fed is underwriting the entire thing. That is still better on a risk v return basis than leaving money in cash or going for low interest rate bonds. Asset prices are being propped up by the Fed via its astronomical QE, economic indicators are all entirely at odds with what is happening in assets such as stocks and property.

It's very ironic/tragic that the gains are kept away from the paws of the public purse via tax efficient structures but when it starts to go tits up, these same entities and individuals that benefitted from the gains cry out for Fed assistance. The US never really suffered after 2008 due to the Fed printing money to prop up the entire system and it is continuing to do that here. The Fed is actually buying corporate bonds, these are loans issued to companies, in a lot of cases they relate to zombie companies with poor outlook or are already past their lifespan. It's so bizarre to see this as I don't know how the Fed can transfer the bonds back into the market as there won't be participants lining up to take on this debt in place of the Fed. So long as the economic chips are not allowed to fall, expect assets to remain stable or even rise.

Where does it end? Social unrest is my guess and populism; Brexit, Trump, the AfD in Germany, SF in Ireland. All of this is just the beginning.

I personally think the astronomical QE and debt spiral will cause the world financial system to crash. Whether the Covid induced world recession triggers it; time will tell.