Property Market 2020

combat14

hard to believe landlords in Dublin offering students 2 months free rent if they pay for full academic year in advance

standardg60

Hubertj wrote: »

Not involved in the market but thought I might learn something about it on boards. Definitely the wrong place for that. Place is full of liars, spoofers, doom merchants and the odd person with an interesting insight or opinion.
I don’t know what HBFI is. So back to my question on how society would operate without credit?

Hmm well you could Google it. But seeing as you concentrate on posting in property threads i assumed you knew. Silly me.

To answer your question, you earn, you save for what you want, you pay for it.
Greece used to have no mortgages, people only added another floor to their house when they could afford it, then they joined the EU..

pearcider

standardg60 wrote: »

Hmm well you could Google it. But seeing as you concentrate on posting in property threads i assumed you knew. Silly me.

To answer your question, you earn, you save for what you want, you pay for it.
Greece used to have no mortgages, people only added another floor to their house when they could afford it, then they joined the EU..

I wouldn’t bother. An insufferable troll and rude to boot. He says he’s not “involved in the ‘market’“ but if you believe that you’d believe anything.

Hubertj

standardg60 wrote: »

Hmm well you could Google it. But seeing as you concentrate on posting in property threads i assumed you knew. Silly me.

To answer your question, you earn, you save for what you want, you pay for it.
Greece used to have no mortgages, people only added another floor to their house when they could afford it, then they joined the EU..

Why bother using google when there are geniuses such as yourself to enlighten the less knowledgeable.
Thanks for the insight on Greece. Really interesting

standardg60

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

It's not the ideal scenario. Clownish view. If Property prices drop 50%, you can throw the country in the bin for the next 10 years. This coming from a fellow FTBer.

Think a bit bigger than yourself.

Why would it throw the country in the bin?
Prices dropping 50% would solve the whole homelessness/rental/ftb crisis would it not?
Unless you are only concerned with maintaining the price that you paid?

standardg60

pearcider wrote: »

I wouldn’t bother. An insufferable troll and rude to boot. He says he’s not “involved in the ‘market’“ but if you believe that you’d believe anything.

True. But.
Evil pervades whilst good men do nothing.

standardg60

Hubertj wrote: »

Why bother using google when there are geniuses such as yourself to enlighten the less knowledgeable.
Thanks for the insight on Greece. Really interesting

I expect the mods will act soon enough.

snoopboggybog

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

I wouldn’t bother. An insufferable troll and rude to boot. He says he’s not “involved in the ‘market’“ but if you believe that you’d believe anything.

If i was involved in the market as you seem convinced why would i join boards to get insights? You seem to have a very pessimistic view of the property market but looking at your posts on other threads I don’t think you have any credibility - I would suggest you need help. BoarDo is the last place to come to get advice on the property market.

Peter File

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

If the rule wasnt there house prices would be even higher and you would not gain an advantage.

cython

standardg60 wrote: »

Why would it throw the country in the bin?
Prices dropping 50% would solve the whole homelessness/rental/ftb crisis would it not?
Unless you are only concerned with maintaining the price that you paid?

There's a whiff of a chicken and egg from this notion. This only solves anything if the prices can drop while people's means remain the same or similar to what they were before. Otherwise this only benefits the elite few with significant cash reserves who are not dependent on finance from a bank. This would most likely have to come about from an increase in supply over demand, and sellers needing to compete.

If, on the other hand, a reduction in earnings, lending, and generally people's capacity to repay a mortgage is driving the reduction in prices, then many people will be just as stuck due to an inability to finance even the lower prices until the market is recovering again and banks entertain lending to them.

TheSheriff

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

I hope the coming uncertainty in the market lets you get the house you want. Good luck with it.

Maz2016

Lads why ye are even talking about 50% is beyond me. I’m not claiming to be any expert but surely be to God a bit of common sense would give a guesstimate of 10-15% best outcome over the next year, depending on location? Going with that, hope and pray that your job and pay continues as normal.
I went to ptsb last week to get AIP. I asked if they were a lot quieter now (with mortgages). She said no, their busier than expected. Those of us working from home are saving that bit more, people have time to apply for mortgages and she said a lot of people applying already have steady deposits saved. There is still a shortage of housing so that’s not driving prices down. In the area I’m looking I haven’t seen any price drops yet. I’m interested in one property. I rang 2 days ago to see where the current offers are at, it’s 5k under the asking price at 185k. People are still putting in offers.
We are reading about a lot of rental properties coming vacant but remember with the lockdown, people moved home with parents, students moved home, international students went back home etc. These will fill up again

combat14

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

Never assume take home pay is always going up .. alot of people thought that was the case back in 2008, bought houses and then were hit with severe pay cuts and tax rises that they are still only just bouncing back from

Maz2016

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

I completely get your point. I’m in the exact same boat. And if like me you watch the house prices closely, by the time you have 15k saved, house prices were going up 10k so frustrating. The best scenario we can hope for now is houseprices fall and job and salary stay in tact.

Markitron

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

I'm in a similar situation. I have decided I am not going to obsess over the market and just focus on saving as much as I can. Worst case scenario is you have to wait longer but with a smaller mortgage and/or a decent chunk of change to set you up once you move in.

Experience_day

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

Problem with that is you might find lots of reits and investors doing the same. There are a few areas where I would buy another house to buy to rent if prices fell 20%.

Sheeps

Maz2016 wrote: »

Lads why ye are even talking about 50% is beyond me. I’m not claiming to be any expert but surely be to God a bit of common sense would give a guesstimate of 10-15% best outcome over the next year, depending on location? Going with that, hope and pray that your job and pay continues as normal.
I went to ptsb last week to get AIP. I asked if they were a lot quieter now (with mortgages). She said no, their busier than expected. Those of us working from home are saving that bit more, people have time to apply for mortgages and she said a lot of people applying already have steady deposits saved. There is still a shortage of housing so that’s not driving prices down. In the area I’m looking I haven’t seen any price drops yet. I’m interested in one property. I rang 2 days ago to see where the current offers are at, it’s 5k under the asking price at 185k. People are still putting in offers.
We are reading about a lot of rental properties coming vacant but remember with the lockdown, people moved home with parents, students moved home, international students went back home etc. These will fill up again

I'd be still expecting homes for first time buyers to increase in price to be honest.

TheSheriff

Sheeps wrote: »

I'd be still expecting homes for first time buyers to increase in price to be honest.

I think prices for new homes will be hard pushed for growth. They were already at peak affordability in most cases. Not sure they will increase.... unless there is some change in the lending rules etc.

Graham

Sheeps wrote: »

I'd be still expecting homes for first time buyers to increase in price to be honest.

I don't think we have homes for first time buyers. We haven't for a long time.

We have homes that are reachable to a small subset of FTBers.

Hulk Hands

Hubertj wrote: »

If i was involved in the market as you seem convinced why would i join boards to get insights? You seem to have a very pessimistic view of the property market but looking at your posts on other threads I don’t think you have any credibility - I would suggest you need help. BoarDo is the last place to come to get advice on the property market.

Hubertj wrote: »

Not involved in the market but thought I might learn something about it on boards. Definitely the wrong place for that. Place is full of liars, spoofers, doom merchants and the odd person with an interesting insight or opinion.
I don’t know what HBFI is. So back to my question on how society would operate without credit?

Where do you fall on that spectrum, considering you've almost 300 posts on the thread and all you've contributed is to repeatedly call people clowns or spoofers while offering zero insight of your own.

If Boards is the last place to come to get advice on property, as you state above, then why do you come back here multiple times every single day?

beanyb

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

You should look into the local authority Rebuilding Ireland Home Loan - http://rebuildingirelandhomeloan.ie/. If you are earning under 50k you can borrow more from them than you can with a bank. Takes a bit longer but worth it!

Hubertj

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Where do you fall on that spectrum, considering you've almost 300 posts on the thread and all you've contributed is to repeatedly call people clowns or spoofers while offering zero insight of your own.

If Boards is the last place to come to get advice on property, as you state above, then why do you come back here multiple times every single day?

i'd put myself in the category of knowing nothing about property but in the process of learning. As i said some people do provide some good opinion and concepts backed up by facts. I am forming opinions but not yet fully thought through.
What i have learned is that property is a very emotive topic, which appears to impact peoples' thinking - opinions become facts and facts get distorted if they don't suit someones agenda.

Pivot Eoin

From looking at the PPR updates every Wednesday, it is clear to me at least that the Turn key, well finished properties in good areas are holding up to their askings still, and in a good amount of cases going for 5-15% above asking.

If there are bargains being had, as I'd been expecting, it is at more so at the doer-upper end of the market. New Builds and High Quality "Second Hand" homes aren't yet getting any sort of discount in SCD/D18/D14 areas.

cnocbui

standardg60 wrote: »

Why would it throw the country in the bin?
Prices dropping 50% would solve the whole homelessness/rental/ftb crisis would it not?
Unless you are only concerned with maintaining the price that you paid?

How did the last 50% fall in house prices solve the homelessness problem, or the situation for ftbs? A certain cohort of the homeless have mental health issues of schizophrenia and drug/alcohol addiction. They are never going to be able to buy their own apartment or house and even if you gave them one, and likely wouldn't be able to manage it's running or upkeep.

If there was a second 50% fall in property prices within a decade of the first, no one would invest in property in this country; period. I can't see that helping the rental market or construction industry or the economy in general. Other than go bust, I don't know what the banks would do in a market where lending money for housing was obviously untenable.

I don't see why I and other property owners should see a 50% reduction in the value of our assets, just to make some socialists happy. If the government came along and helped itself to 50% of the deposit you had saved for a house, I'm sure you would be delighted.

snoopboggybog wrote: »

I seriously hope house prices drop the 20% that some are speculating. Might sound selfish but I am so pissed with this 3.5 rule.

On 42K and houses in my area are going for around 195,000 which leaves me needing a deposit of 48K. If they drop 20% i could buy one of them in the morning.

Without the 3.5 rule I have the 10% deposit of 19,500 and a 25 year mortgage at 823 euro a month as take home pay is 2780 a month and is only going to go up.

But sure what can you do. Save another 28,000K over the next 18 months.

Job security and profession really need to come into the 3.5 rule.

Sorry for the rant but it is just so fecking frustrating.

Perhaps one day, when you own your own home, you will be in a position of looking to trade up, or sell to relocate, or trade down, and I'm wondering if you would be quite so enthusiastic for the value of it to suddenly drop 20%.

hometruths

Pivot Eoin wrote: »

It's not the ideal scenario. Clownish view. If Property prices drop 50%, you can throw the country in the bin for the next 10 years. This coming from a fellow FTBer.

Think a bit bigger than yourself.

Can someone explain to me why the whole country will go bankrupt if prices drop 50%?

People say this as if we will all be at soup kitchens if the property market tanks 50% again, but I don't really understand what the doomsday scenario is.

Anybody who does understand how it would damage Average Joe care to spell it out for me?

Maz2016

beanyb wrote: »

You should look into the local authority Rebuilding Ireland Home Loan - http://rebuildingirelandhomeloan.ie/. If you are earning under 50k you can borrow more from them than you can with a bank. Takes a bit longer but worth it!

I really need to look into this more. I just had a nice chat with one of their agents on the chat feature. Told her what I was approved in principle but that it wouldn’t be enough. She said the AIP is not sufficient for My needs and told me I could apply for this Thanks for the heads up. Sometimes, when your so focused you forget to look elsewhere. I hadn’t read up on this scheme before

ShedTower

cnocbui wrote: »

Perhaps one day, when you own your own home, you will be in a position of looking to trade up, or sell to relocate, or trade down, and I'm wondering if you would be quite so enthusiastic for the value of it to suddenly drop 20%.

Not all homeowners only think of themselves. Everyone has children, nieces, nephews, brothers, sisters, friends who are priced out of buying their first home.

It's fine to criticise them for wanting a drop but they're probably only wanting to pay a similar price as what you paid for your first house. Or possibly more than you paid!


We're talking about a housing issue here and not the stock market.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Can someone explain to me why the whole country will go bankrupt if prices drop 50%?

People say this as if we will all be at soup kitchens if the property market tanks 50% again, but I don't really understand what the doomsday scenario is.

Anybody who does understand how it would damage Average Joe care to spell it out for me?

the only way prices will drop 50% is if peoples ability to buy them also drops, so average joe probably doesnt have a job any more, he is now social welfare joe.

hometruths

cnocbui wrote: »

Other than go bust, I don't know what the banks would do in a market where lending money for housing was obviously untenable.

If a bank borrows money at 1% and lends it out at 3.5% why will that business model be untenable if property prices have fallen 50%

cnocbui wrote: »

I don't see why I and other property owners should see a 50% reduction in the value of our assets, just to make some socialists happy. If the government came along and helped itself to 50% of the deposit you had saved for a house, I'm sure you would be delighted.

Nobody is talking about the government confiscating assets. If you invest in property you should be prepared for risk/reward that prices can fluctuate.

If it is a home rather than an investment asset the price fluctuations can be ridden out.

cnocbui wrote: »

Perhaps one day, when you own your own home, you will be in a position of looking to trade up, or sell to relocate, or trade down, and I'm wondering if you would be quite so enthusiastic for the value of it to suddenly drop 20%.

Lets say Joe Average currently owns a house worth 300k and wants to trade up to a house currently worth 400k.

He needs to find 100k to fund the difference.

Prices drop 20% - his current house is worth 240k and the one he wants to trade up to is worth 320k.

Now he needs to find 80k to fund the difference.

I'd say he might well be enthusiastic about the 20% price drop.