Property Market 2020

Eric Cartman

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think songles, childless couples and workers from overseas will be looking to leave. Irelands personal taxation on middle and high earners is at breaking point.

There's plenty singles and childless couples earning €50k each who have a small enough mortgage on a nice enough house who can see why it's just hunky dorey to live here.

For every one (Irish person) who will be looking to leave 10 won't even consider it an option.

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

Sinn Fein just about got into power on the back of promising to reduce or eliminate property tax, I doubt any other party is going to be viewing it as a future cash cow.

I think property tax will be staying where it is for many years to come.
I dont think it will increase. It may even go down a bit. It would be scumabaggery of the highest order to increase property taxes now.

combat14

Looks like Government 350 covid payments will be coming to an end shortly ..


Coronavirus payments unsustainable, warns Doherty

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-payments-unsustainable-warns-doherty-as-over-70s-advised-to-avoid-shops-1.4245289?mode=amp

combat14

combat14 wrote: »

Looks like Government 350 covid payments will be coming to an end shortly ..........

Nothing surprising there.
Supermarkets were all looking for staff and couldn't get any ........ part time bar, hotel & restaurant workers were on more then when they were working.

SozBbz

combat14 wrote: »

Looks like Government 350 covid payments will be coming to an end shortly ..


Coronavirus payments unsustainable, warns Doherty

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-payments-unsustainable-warns-doherty-as-over-70s-advised-to-avoid-shops-1.4245289?mode=amp

Had a quick scan of the article, but didnt see what they're suggesting as an alternative.

Same as job seekers allowance I presume?

It is ridiculous that the scheme designed to protect incomes in actually enhancing incomes for some and making it hard for employers who are providing an essential service to get staff.

At the same time, if you've lost a very well paying job, then I can see how even €350 per week would be very helpful to help keep on top of household bills for the time being. I know some will say that those who lost large incomes should be fine by themselves, but people with large incomes often have large outgoings which they're committed to also.

Surely there must be a way of administering a system which doesnt prevent those who were working in casual/parttime employment from seeking similar and yet gives some protection to those whose circumstances are different.

Even if you had to prove that you were full time (37hours per week or whatnot) to benefit from €350, that would make more sense to me. Could they not have rates based on average hours worked in previous 12 weeks or something, say if 20 hours of less then you get the jobseekers rate?

JimmyVik

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think songles, childless couples and workers from overseas will be looking to leave. Irelands personal taxation on middle and high earners is at breaking point.

I know a couple moving to Portugal.
They had said before if tax went up anymore here they would just sell up everything and retire to Portugal. They are both just under 50 and already spent about 2 months a year there anyway. In the last few weeks they have decided to just that anyway.
He said to me that they feel robbed by the tax man here and are just about ready to leave the rat race anyway.
I will go into more detail with him when i meet him again, if i ever do

what_traffic

SozBbz wrote: »

Had a quick scan of the article, but didnt see what they're suggesting as an alternative.

Same as job seekers allowance I presume?

It is ridiculous that the scheme designed to protect incomes in actually enhancing incomes for some and making it hard for employers who are providing an essential service to get staff.

At the same time, if you've lost a very well paying job, then I can see how even €350 per week would be very helpful to help keep on top of household bills for the time being. I know some will say that those who lost large incomes should be fine by themselves, but people with large incomes often have large outgoings which they're committed to also.

Surely there must be a way of administering a system which doesnt prevent those who were working in casual/parttime employment from seeking similar and yet gives some protection to those whose circumstances are different.

Even if you had to prove that you were full time (37hours per week or whatnot) to benefit from €350, that would make more sense to me. Could they not have rates based on average hours worked in previous 12 weeks or something, say if 20 hours of less then you get the jobseekers rate?

Shows what a mess system is in the first place.
Irish Civil Service do not like complexity.
Other Euro countrys which have proper Social Insurance models - payments out are indexed on the payments individuals put into the system.

Bass Reeves

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know a couple moving to Portugal.
They had said before if tax went up anymore here they would just sell up everything and retire to Portugal. They are both just under 50 and already spent about 2 months a year there anyway. In the last few weeks they have decided to just that anyway.
He said to me that they feel robbed by the tax man here and are just about ready to leave the rat race anyway.
I will go into more detail with him when i meet him again, if i ever do

A drop on property values might change the dynamics of what they are planning. Pocketing 300k and moving to Portagul is way more attractive than pocketing 24Ok and going there. If there is a 100k to be paid back on a mortgage it is even less attractive

Assetbacked

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6663419031510368256-acDb

Owen Reilly, an estate agent, giving his experience of the past few weeks. Interesting to hear what he has had to say; renter's market but remains resilient with week on week demand building; 15% of tenants they are manager in respect of have requested variation to rental terms; just over 50% of sales have fallen through, majority were investor buyers; 2 owner occupiers had their mortgage approval withdrawn by the banks; nonetheless he still had 5 closings last week, 4 of the buyers signed contracts after the crisis began; and he welcomes the move to innovation and technology for the sector.

Hulk Hands

eagle eye wrote: »

Nothing, it's that I've studied it and gotten advice from experts and friends in different sectors of the economy.
I'm not predicting that house prices won't drop either. I'm predicting that it won't be as severe as most seem to think. I think you'll be see a max drop of 20% on less attractive properties and somewhere in the region of 5-15% in more attractive properties.
I made my decision to proceed based on this information.
I've mentioned the factors at play, I don't see anybody challenging them other than saying that financial pain from other sectors will seriously hit the housing market. I disagree with that because we have a housing shortage crisis. Any monies earmarked for solving this issue will now be part of repayments on our debts so I don't see a massive amount of new houses being built anytime soon.
I don't see a mad rush to buy anytime soon but I don't see panic sales happening either

You were on here literally 2 weeks ago with the below asking advice (3 posts added in).

eagle eye wrote: »

We really like the property but we don't want to be paying out huge money now and finding ourselves in a situation where the property is worth a lot less in six months time. We'd prefer to be on a healthier financial position.
We are in a good financial position, we aren't going to be buried with a big mortgage if we do go ahead.
There are other nice houses that we've looked at in the same area which will be available when this is all over.

2)
I was talking to my solicitor today and she told me that everybody is pulling out. Her advice to us, as predominantly cash buyers, is to wait and see.
The owners of the house we agreed a sale on want to have their cake and eat it. They were looking for contracts to be signed but the purchase not to take place for eight weeks.

3)
No, there are a multitude of reasons why people in good financial situations might want to sell. Everything from retirees relocating to people upsizing/downsizing etc.
The biggest hit on the market will come from the lack of younger people being able to get a mortgage. There will be less buyers and from every expert I've talked to they say that the cash buyer will be in a really strong position.

Then you bought the place and almost immediately were an expert, standing on the other side of the argument. The last post is contradicting what you're arguing now. I actually probably agree slightly more with your new line of thinking but you're a very obvious case of confirmation bias of the decision.

JimmyVik

Bass Reeves wrote: »

A drop on property values might change the dynamics of what they are planning. Pocketing 300k and moving to Portagul is way more attractive than pocketing 24Ok and going there. If there is a 100k to be paid back on a mortgage it is even less attractive

They have enough to go without selling the house anyway.
So if they wanted they could wait. Or maybe what they weer thinking of buying or even renting in Portugal might be reduced too.


I'll quiz him on the ins and outs of it when I see him. They are a very smart couple. I dont think they will be doing anything stupid. They usually have everything figured out. But im curious to now more too.

eagle eye

Hulk Hands wrote:

Then you bought the place and almost immediately were an expert, standing on the other side of the argument. The last post is contradicting what you're arguing now. I actually probably agree slightly more with your new line of thinking but you're a very obvious case of confirmation bias of the decision.

I'm sharing what I've learned through listening to experts and friends working in a number of different sectors of the financial industry as well as reading a lot of stuff.
Instead of attempting a bit of oneupmanship how about you address the points I've made if you disagree.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

.........


I'll quiz him on the ins and outs of it when I see him. They are a very smart couple. I dont think they will be doing anything stupid. They usually have everything figured out. But im curious to now more too.

Tax hasn't gone up though.
they are wealthy enough and want to retire to Portugal, and they are sick of the "rat race". Fantastic, great to see, but there has been no tax increases.

Did Covid19 effect their jobs?

I love Portugal but don't think I could live there tbh....... no place like home
If you are retired with a few quid Ireland isn't too bad a spot IMO.

hometruths

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm sharing what I've learned through listening to experts and friends working in a number of different sectors of the financial industry as well as reading a lot of stuff.
Instead of attempting a bit of oneupmanship how about you address the points I've made if you disagree.

Are these the same sorts of experts who nailed it predicting the soft landing last time around?

Hulk Hands

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm sharing what I've learned through listening to experts and friends working in a number of different sectors of the financial industry as well as reading a lot of stuff.
Instead of attempting a bit of oneupmanship how about you address the points I've made if you disagree.

You were cap in hand looking for advice, yet turned into Luke Comer a couple of days later on the back of a bit of reading? By all means share who the experts that advised you are and what they said. As yet you havent done that.

I won't disagree with any points because like you were 14 days ago, i'm a novice looking for a bit of steer from others on how things will go

JimmyVik

Augeo wrote: »

Tax hasn't gone up though.
they are wealthy enough and want to retire to Portugal, and they are sick of the "rat race". Fantastic, great to see, but there has been no tax increases.

Did Covid19 effect their jobs?

I love Portugal but don't think I could live there tbh....... no place like home
If you are retired with a few quid Ireland isn't too bad a spot IMO.

Perhaps im not explaining this right.
We have had many conversations in the past about how tax rates in Ireland are killing us.
They were on the on the verge of giving it all up to retire to Portugal and always said if tax rates go up anymore we're off.
So now its fairly certain taxes are going up.
They have been pushed over the edge and are off. THey might wait and see if taxes go up, they might not. Im fairly sure they are going up.

They lose so much to tax from working they have decided that they might as well have a better life and trade what they were earning from working.

They might change their minds. They might not.
Im just explaining where they have finally decided too much tax is too much tax. Better chase the dream than be a wage slave.


I prefer not to do overtime myself, so i usually refuse it. And when they insist I do it I ask for toil. Perhaps if I wasnt taxed so much and got to keep more of my overtime, I might do more of it. I think I pay far too much tax tbf.



Ireland is not a bad place to live, apart from the weather and the tax.
And I believe in Portugal you get huge tax breaks and incentives for retiring there. I think you even dont pay tax for 10 years if you move there and only earn money from retirement funds or investments.

As I said, I will find out more when i meet him. Always have interesting conversations with him. Myself, I dont see the attraction in Portugal. They love it though.


Now this is entirely 2nd hand information from me and ive filled in some blanks until i ask the questions. But the gist of it is. Another tax hike will be the straw that broke the camels back for them.

Cyrus

JimmyVik wrote: »

Perhaps im not explaining this right.
We have had many conversations in the past about how tax rates in Ireland are killing us.
They were on the on the verge of giving it all up to retire to Portugal and always said if tax rates go up anymore we're off.
So now its fairly certain taxes are going up.
They have been pushed over the edge and are off. THey might wait and see if taxes go up, they might not. Im fairly sure they are going up.

They lose so much to tax from working they have decided that they might as well have a better life and trade what they were earning from working.

They might change their minds. They might not.
Im just explaining where they have finally decided too much tax is too much tax. Better chase the dream than be a wage slave.


I prefer not to do overtime myself, so i usually refuse it. And when they insist I do it I ask for toil. Perhaps if I wasnt taxed so much and got to keep more of my overtime, I might do more of it. I think I pay far too much tax tbf.



Ireland is not a bad place to live, apart from the weather and the tax.
And I believe in Portugal you get huge tax breaks and incentives for retiring there. I think you even dont pay tax for 10 years if you move there and only earn money from retirement funds or investments.

As I said, I will find out more when i meet him. Always have interesting conversations with him. Myself, I dont see the attraction in Portugal. They love it though.


Now this is entirely 2nd hand information from me and ive filled in some blanks until i ask the questions. But the gist of it is. Another tax hike will be the straw that broke the camels back for them.

basically they dont need to work any more and want to retire to portugal, its a different situation to be fair.

eagle eye

Hulk Hands wrote:

You were cap in hand looking for advice, yet turned into Luke Comer a couple of days later on the back of a bit of reading? By all means share who the experts that advised you are and what they said. As yet you havent done that.
I won't disagree with any points because like you were 14 days ago, i'm a novice looking for a bit of steer from others on how things will go

You expect me to put up names of people? I'm not doing that.
Through my bank, my solicitor and friends I got to speak to experts in different financial fields who look at things. In most cases they weren't giving out dreary outlooks but we're concerned.
My situation is a bit different to others, I personally believed the house I was buying was worth 50k more than the price agreed. My architect, who invests in building and selling, told me the house is worth at least the valuation I put on it. He is also a personal friend.
A friend of his who works buying and selling money told me that there he expected a reduction in house prices but also said my money would be worth less and that any reduction in the value of the property might never actually change the price as money is worth less.
Another friend of a friend who works in financial planning told me that he expected a temporary drop in house prices after third quarter reports in 2020 but that's all dependent on whether people get back to work by then. He said if people are not back to work by September it could get really bad. He said that money will be devalued greatly the longer this goes on. He said house prices will go down but there'll be no new houses built which should protect the market a bit.
I'd have taken the advice of those two above what others have said because they both seem very clued in on money.
I'd be of the opinion based on all I've heard that there may be a bigger reduction in less attractive properties and not as big in more attractive properties. I'm talking in the €200k-800k price range here.
All the advice I got led me to go ahead with the purchase. I don't care about a 10% reduction, it'd want to be a lot more than that to tempt me out of the market. I've also said that this is our forever home, we both love it and that played a part in our decision too.
At a reduction of 20% in prices I'm still not left in a bad situation as I don't have a very big mortgage.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

basically they dont need to work any more and want to retire to portugal, its a different situation to be fair.

Not really.
They are quite happily working away.
Tax goes up, they trade off the income they would have had for a happier life elsewhere. The higher tax just tipped the scales. They might even work in Portugal if they want. I dont know if they will or not. But they arent happy with the amount of tax that they pay here and will be less happy if it goes higher.


I doubt they are the only middle income earners who feel that they are paying more than their fair share of tax.

JimmyVik

JimmyVik wrote: »

Not really.
They are quite happily working away.
Tax goes up, they trade off the income they would have had for a happier life elsewhere. The higher tax just tipped the scales. They might even work in Portugal if they want. I dont know if they will or not. But they arent happy with the amount of tax that they pay here and will be less happy if it goes higher.


I doubt they are the only middle income earners who feel that they are paying more than their fair share of tax.

What do they do for a living?
In Portugal wages are appalling.

If they are just under 50 they are very close to being able to access their OCP or Executive pensions so as Cyrus mentions they can afford to and they are just retiring.

cnocbui

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Where will they go?

I'm aiming on NZ.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6663419031510368256-acDb

Owen Reilly, an estate agent, giving his experience of the past few weeks. Interesting to hear what he has had to say; renter's market but remains resilient with week on week demand building; 15% of tenants they are manager in respect of have requested variation to rental terms; just over 50% of sales have fallen through, majority were investor buyers; 2 owner occupiers had their mortgage approval withdrawn by the banks; nonetheless he still had 5 closings last week, 4 of the buyers signed contracts after the crisis began; and he welcomes the move to innovation and technology for the sector.

Is this guy a large estate agent? Or judging by his commentary he specialises in Docklands area?

SozBbz

Hubertj wrote: »

Is this guy a large estate agent? Or judging by his commentary he specialises in Docklands area?

AFAIK he has 2 or 3 offices, and the areas would be the docklands, D2,4,6 and out to parts of south county Dublin.

So, not a one man band but not exactly nationwide either.

Sheeps

Hubertj wrote: »

Is this guy a large estate agent? Or judging by his commentary he specialises in Docklands area?

Yeah, this guy specialises in overpriced Docklands and D4 apartments. It's rare they list anything not upper end of the market or in a less than premium area.

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know a couple moving to Portugal.
They had said before if tax went up anymore here they would just sell up everything and retire to Portugal. They are both just under 50 and already spent about 2 months a year there anyway. In the last few weeks they have decided to just that anyway.
He said to me that they feel robbed by the tax man here and are just about ready to leave the rat race anyway.
I will go into more detail with him when i meet him again, if i ever do

They sound like they have their heads well screwed on. They shouldn't hesitate or wait to see. I suspect there will be a significant second wave and moving could be logistically problematic.

Cyrus

Having somewhere to live that makes you happy has a very high value as well, a few may get lucky in this period and get something really desirable at a knockdown price, but there wont be many, and it wont be this week or next, more like 6-9 months or a year down the road.

We bought this house 3 years ago, 9 months later someone paid 180k more for theirs than i did for mine (identical houses in an estate), if i was to sell mine today id imagine id struggle to get what we paid for it, not to mention all the money thats gone into it,

i was dancing when someone paid more and i wouldnt cry if someone pays less. We have loved loving here and the last 3 years have been brilliant, the kids are in a great local school and with any luck will go all the way from starting primary to leaving cert in the same school system.

Added to that if i hadn't have bought this and rented the same thing for the last 3 years it would have cost me 160k or so.

short version is if i could get the same home today for 50/100k less than i paid 3 years ago i wouldnt go back in time.

Limpy

The wife's friend is sale agreed and signed off.

She got better mortgage term's with via the affordable home scheme. She was sick of the rigmarole of looking as she's hitting her mid 40s, so she's going ahead as she probably won't get another chance.
Its been held up by some small snags the AH engineer flagged. Cosmetic stuff that normally a buyer would do themselves, but when a AH flags something the mortgage wont be approved.

JimmyVik

Augeo wrote: »

What do they do for a living?
In Portugal wages are appalling.

If they are just under 50 they are very close to being able to access their OCP or Executive pensions so as Cyrus mentions they can afford to and they are just retiring.

You opbviously know them better than I do so

Marcusm

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know a couple moving to Portugal.
They had said before if tax went up anymore here they would just sell up everything and retire to Portugal. They are both just under 50 and already spent about 2 months a year there anyway. In the last few weeks they have decided to just that anyway.
He said to me that they feel robbed by the tax man here and are just about ready to leave the rat race anyway.
I will go into more detail with him when i meet him again, if i ever do

Are they civil or public servants?

jeanie n

Just wondering, has anyone managed to get a discount off a pre covid sale agreed house? What was the tactics?