schmittel wrote: I'll have a go...
schmittel wrote: » I'll have a go... You (and others) keep mentioning that it is different this time because the banks are in much better health now, but I fail to see how that will cushion any drop a prices. The state of the banks balance sheets right now is more relevant to how well they are able to cope with loans they have already issued . i.e the mortgages drawn down and spent into a rising market. It is the mortages that they issue in the future that will be those that influence the future direction of the market. They are not going to think "Wahey, carry on lending just as we were last year, sure we can afford the losses this time if it goes tits up." Particularly not if the Central Bank are breathing down their necks:Regulator wants banks prepared for arrears spike 'Anxious to avoid a repeat of the last crash', banks will not only lend less money to less people, but their valuers will be instructed to be ultraconservative. And it won't matter jot if both vendor and buyer are prepared to do a deal at €400k, the bank will set the price and if the bank says they are only prepared to lend at a valuation of €320k the vendor has to either take it or leave it. This will put very significant pressure on prices irrespective of how well the banks are capitalised, as far as I can see. Given they'll be once bitten, twice shy, I just can't get my head around how the relative strength of banks balance sheets means a soft landing. Am I missing something?
eagle eye wrote: » I'm sharing what I've learned through listening to experts and friends working in a number of different sectors of the financial industry as well as reading a lot of stuff. Instead of attempting a bit of oneupmanship how about you address the points I've made if you disagree.
It is understood the Central Bank will monitor the provisions banks make for estimated losses stemming from the Covid-19 shut down to include taking a view on the medium-term effect the crisis may have on house prices and jobs... ...Regulators are understood to be anxious to avoid a repeat of the last crash, when banks allowed mortgage arrears to increase for years among a huge numbers of borrowers and only belatedly put operations in place for large-scale mortgage arrears engagement and to offer debt cure solutions.
JimmyVik wrote: » I know a couple moving to Portugal. They had said before if tax went up anymore here they would just sell up everything and retire to Portugal. They are both just under 50 and already spent about 2 months a year there anyway. In the last few weeks they have decided to just that anyway. He said to me that they feel robbed by the tax man here and are just about ready to leave the rat race anyway. I will go into more detail with him when i meet him again, if i ever do
Augeo wrote: » What do they do for a living? In Portugal wages are appalling. If they are just under 50 they are very close to being able to access their OCP or Executive pensions so as Cyrus mentions they can afford to and they are just retiring.
Hubertj wrote: » Is this guy a large estate agent? Or judging by his commentary he specialises in Docklands area?
Assetbacked wrote: » https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6663419031510368256-acDb Owen Reilly, an estate agent, giving his experience of the past few weeks. Interesting to hear what he has had to say; renter's market but remains resilient with week on week demand building; 15% of tenants they are manager in respect of have requested variation to rental terms; just over 50% of sales have fallen through, majority were investor buyers; 2 owner occupiers had their mortgage approval withdrawn by the banks; nonetheless he still had 5 closings last week, 4 of the buyers signed contracts after the crisis began; and he welcomes the move to innovation and technology for the sector.
Bass Reeves wrote: » Where will they go?
JimmyVik wrote: » Not really. They are quite happily working away. Tax goes up, they trade off the income they would have had for a happier life elsewhere. The higher tax just tipped the scales. They might even work in Portugal if they want. I dont know if they will or not. But they arent happy with the amount of tax that they pay here and will be less happy if it goes higher. I doubt they are the only middle income earners who feel that they are paying more than their fair share of tax.
Cyrus wrote: » basically they dont need to work any more and want to retire to portugal, its a different situation to be fair.
Hulk Hands wrote: You were cap in hand looking for advice, yet turned into Luke Comer a couple of days later on the back of a bit of reading? By all means share who the experts that advised you are and what they said. As yet you havent done that. I won't disagree with any points because like you were 14 days ago, i'm a novice looking for a bit of steer from others on how things will go
JimmyVik wrote: » Perhaps im not explaining this right. We have had many conversations in the past about how tax rates in Ireland are killing us. They were on the on the verge of giving it all up to retire to Portugal and always said if tax rates go up anymore we're off. So now its fairly certain taxes are going up. They have been pushed over the edge and are off. THey might wait and see if taxes go up, they might not. Im fairly sure they are going up. They lose so much to tax from working they have decided that they might as well have a better life and trade what they were earning from working. They might change their minds. They might not. Im just explaining where they have finally decided too much tax is too much tax. Better chase the dream than be a wage slave. I prefer not to do overtime myself, so i usually refuse it. And when they insist I do it I ask for toil. Perhaps if I wasnt taxed so much and got to keep more of my overtime, I might do more of it. I think I pay far too much tax tbf. Ireland is not a bad place to live, apart from the weather and the tax. And I believe in Portugal you get huge tax breaks and incentives for retiring there. I think you even dont pay tax for 10 years if you move there and only earn money from retirement funds or investments. As I said, I will find out more when i meet him. Always have interesting conversations with him. Myself, I dont see the attraction in Portugal. They love it though. Now this is entirely 2nd hand information from me and ive filled in some blanks until i ask the questions. But the gist of it is. Another tax hike will be the straw that broke the camels back for them.
Augeo wrote: » Tax hasn't gone up though. they are wealthy enough and want to retire to Portugal, and they are sick of the "rat race". Fantastic, great to see, but there has been no tax increases. Did Covid19 effect their jobs? I love Portugal but don't think I could live there tbh....... no place like home If you are retired with a few quid Ireland isn't too bad a spot IMO.
JimmyVik wrote: » ......... I'll quiz him on the ins and outs of it when I see him. They are a very smart couple. I dont think they will be doing anything stupid. They usually have everything figured out. But im curious to now more too.
Hulk Hands wrote: Then you bought the place and almost immediately were an expert, standing on the other side of the argument. The last post is contradicting what you're arguing now. I actually probably agree slightly more with your new line of thinking but you're a very obvious case of confirmation bias of the decision.
Bass Reeves wrote: » A drop on property values might change the dynamics of what they are planning. Pocketing 300k and moving to Portagul is way more attractive than pocketing 24Ok and going there. If there is a 100k to be paid back on a mortgage it is even less attractive
eagle eye wrote: » Nothing, it's that I've studied it and gotten advice from experts and friends in different sectors of the economy. I'm not predicting that house prices won't drop either. I'm predicting that it won't be as severe as most seem to think. I think you'll be see a max drop of 20% on less attractive properties and somewhere in the region of 5-15% in more attractive properties. I made my decision to proceed based on this information. I've mentioned the factors at play, I don't see anybody challenging them other than saying that financial pain from other sectors will seriously hit the housing market. I disagree with that because we have a housing shortage crisis. Any monies earmarked for solving this issue will now be part of repayments on our debts so I don't see a massive amount of new houses being built anytime soon. I don't see a mad rush to buy anytime soon but I don't see panic sales happening either
eagle eye wrote: » We really like the property but we don't want to be paying out huge money now and finding ourselves in a situation where the property is worth a lot less in six months time. We'd prefer to be on a healthier financial position. We are in a good financial position, we aren't going to be buried with a big mortgage if we do go ahead. There are other nice houses that we've looked at in the same area which will be available when this is all over. 2) I was talking to my solicitor today and she told me that everybody is pulling out. Her advice to us, as predominantly cash buyers, is to wait and see. The owners of the house we agreed a sale on want to have their cake and eat it. They were looking for contracts to be signed but the purchase not to take place for eight weeks. 3) No, there are a multitude of reasons why people in good financial situations might want to sell. Everything from retirees relocating to people upsizing/downsizing etc. The biggest hit on the market will come from the lack of younger people being able to get a mortgage. There will be less buyers and from every expert I've talked to they say that the cash buyer will be in a really strong position.
SozBbz wrote: » Had a quick scan of the article, but didnt see what they're suggesting as an alternative. Same as job seekers allowance I presume? It is ridiculous that the scheme designed to protect incomes in actually enhancing incomes for some and making it hard for employers who are providing an essential service to get staff. At the same time, if you've lost a very well paying job, then I can see how even €350 per week would be very helpful to help keep on top of household bills for the time being. I know some will say that those who lost large incomes should be fine by themselves, but people with large incomes often have large outgoings which they're committed to also. Surely there must be a way of administering a system which doesnt prevent those who were working in casual/parttime employment from seeking similar and yet gives some protection to those whose circumstances are different. Even if you had to prove that you were full time (37hours per week or whatnot) to benefit from €350, that would make more sense to me. Could they not have rates based on average hours worked in previous 12 weeks or something, say if 20 hours of less then you get the jobseekers rate?
Eric Cartman wrote: » I think songles, childless couples and workers from overseas will be looking to leave. Irelands personal taxation on middle and high earners is at breaking point.
combat14 wrote: » Looks like Government 350 covid payments will be coming to an end shortly .. Coronavirus payments unsustainable, warns Dohertyhttps://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-payments-unsustainable-warns-doherty-as-over-70s-advised-to-avoid-shops-1.4245289?mode=amp
combat14 wrote: » Looks like Government 350 covid payments will be coming to an end shortly ..........
