Property Market 2020

beauf

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There will always be some demand, however it will be very weak compared to what has been the case up to the middle of last year. Supply is increasing due to the number of built rents under construction, student units under construction as well as former air B&Bs. At the same time there will be fewer takers available. That can only have one outcome.

Last time building all but stopped. Why would it continue to provide supply this time, while demand falls. Last time all the builders left. Why would they stay this time.

Claw Hammer

beauf wrote: »

Last time building all but stopped. Why would it continue to provide supply this time, while demand falls. Last time all the builders left. Why would they stay this time.

There are units under construction which will be finished. New builds won't happen.

beauf

garhjw wrote: »

Read my post again. I said rents and prices will be impacted but demand is still will still be Ahead of supply. Ex air bnb won’t fix shortage. Lower rents won’t increase supply, only more units increases supply.

Demand is hard to judge. With economic recession this time it's hard to know will people ride it out here or move somewhere else. Where else will they go to the better? Who knows?

beauf

Claw Hammer wrote: »

There are units under construction which will be finished. New builds won't happen.

Last time they didn't, they abandoned them and they sat incomplete for a decade.

Those that did complete sat empty for years also.

enricoh

ittakestwo wrote: »

There is speculation that builders wont drop prices of new builds or negotiate on sale agreed prices before Corona.

Noticed the first reduction (17%) of new a new build development in Sandyford this week. At the end of the day builders are market price takers not market price makers.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/d-n-gaoithe-sandyford-dublin-18/4299328

The builders can speculate away, the bank manager won't be long telling them to get money in pronto - firesales to follow!

Claw Hammer

beauf wrote: »

Last time they didn't, they abandoned them and they sat incomplete for a decade.

Those that did complete sat empty for years also.

Last time the funding model was completely different. The banks just pulled the plug. This time building is not being funded by the banks. The build to lets and the student units will be finished.
This time there is very little speculative building, particularly of apartments. When was the last time a spec built apartment scheme launched?

garhjw

ittakestwo wrote: »

There is speculation that builders wont drop prices of new builds or negotiate on sale agreed prices before Corona.

Noticed the first reduction (17%) of new a new build development in Sandyford this week. At the end of the day builders are market price takers not market price makers.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/d-n-gaoithe-sandyford-dublin-18/4299328

They seem very high prices. Where how do you see the price drop? Does it say it in ad somewhere or have you been monitoring this development?

BillyBiggs

ittakestwo wrote: »

There is speculation that builders wont drop prices of new builds or negotiate on sale agreed prices before Corona.

Noticed the first reduction (17%) of new a new build development in Sandyford this week. At the end of the day builders are market price takers not market price makers.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/d-n-gaoithe-sandyford-dublin-18/4299328

What bank would give out a €500,000 mortgage now?

Graham

Villa05 wrote: »

They were negligible as they were built in the wrong location. The surplus build from 2008 suppressed prices (and still do) in low demand areas.

There were literally thousands of apartments and houses in Dublin speculatively built by developers before the last crash.

Now, most new builds are sold off-plan precisely to reduce the risk of developers being left holding unsold inventory.

beauf

Considering people on these forums are advocating pulling out of contracts and stuff is being bought of the plans what new supply is there? None.

There is stuff still sitting unsold. Capital Docks is a good example a year after it was finished.

garhjw

beauf wrote: »

Considering people on these forums are advocating pulling out of contracts and stuff is being bought of the plans what new supply is there? None.

There is stuff still sitting unsold. Capital Docks is a good example a year after it was finished.

I wouldn’t take the comments and opinions of people on boards as representative of the general public. Full of keyboard warriors, lefty loons and self anointed economists.

Is capital dock the tower across from east link? They were silly money like the Lansdowne road apartments on the Berkeley court site?

BillyBiggs

BillyBiggs wrote: »

What bank would give out a €500,000 mortgage now?

Why would they have to?
Perhaps people only need 50%

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

Considering people on these forums are advocating pulling out of contracts and stuff is being bought of the plans what new supply is there? None.

There is stuff still sitting unsold. Capital Docks is a good example a year after it was finished.

Capital Docks is available for rent, is it possible to buy too?

Graham

Wasn't the entire development sold as one lot?

Added:

Owned by Kennedy Wilson / Axa apart from the block sold to JP Morgan.

beauf

garhjw wrote: »

I wouldn’t take the comments and opinions of people on boards as representative of the general public. Full of keyboard warriors, lefty loons and self anointed economists.

Is capital dock the tower across from east link? They were silly money like the Lansdowne road apartments on the Berkeley court site?

Well no argument on the first.

Capital though ticks every box about holding out for unrealistic prices for speculative. Though it's a fringe case. But I see new builds in small numbers not being sold out for the past year or more. They are not starter or affordable housing though.

I just don't see supply meeting the demand. Even if the supply and prices shrink enormously. So much of the govt reported new supply was over reported. I think the market will just shrink to a low volume of essential business.

Graham

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Capital Docks is available for rent, is it possible to buy too?

No, (high end) rental only.

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Capital Docks is available for rent, is it possible to buy too?

I should have said empty not unsold.

My bad.

handlemaster

BillyBiggs wrote: »

It’ll be political suicide for politicians who bail out the banks. Those in opposition will have a field day.

We already own AIB PTSB . BOI wasn't a problem.last time..worked it's way out easily enought...

ittakestwo

garhjw wrote: »

They seem very high prices. Where how do you see the price drop? Does it say it in ad somewhere or have you been monitoring this development?

The price is high. But every new build in south dublin is high. It works out at €4200sqm. Not many new builds in south dublin asking under €5000sqm.

You cant see the price drop on mobile. But if you look at the ad from the desktop you can see it was reduced by 17% on 24th of March.

ittakestwo

<snip>

garhjw

ittakestwo wrote: »

The price is high. But every new build in south dublin is high. It works out at €4200sqm. Not many new builds in south dublin asking under €5000sqm.

You cant see the price drop on mobile. But if you look at the ad from the desktop you can see it was reduced by 17% on 24th of March.

Wow, never really looked at new builds, especially in suburbs, but that’s an eye opener. Not much to look at and little to no privacy front or back garden. If I’m reading right they are phase 1 and been finished since spring 2019 so on sale well over 12 months?

Sweet.Science

You'd be mad to sell directly after this all dies down . The market will bounce back within 6-12months . People will sit on their property if they can . Supply will decrease making the recovery quicker

OwlsZat

Sweet.Science wrote: »

You'd be mad to sell directly after this all dies down . The market will bounce back within 6-12months . People will sit on their property if they can . Supply will decrease making the recovery quicker

Thats one theory. Reads very much like a best case scenario. If everything was normal before the crash then maybe. However, I don't think it was. Can see us finding a new norm as things recover over the next couple of years.

Mic 1972

Sweet.Science wrote: »

You'd be mad to sell directly after this all dies down . The market will bounce back within 6-12months . People will sit on their property if they can . Supply will decrease making the recovery quicker

we don't even know how long it will take to have a cure or vaccine. In the meantime the economy is progressively slowing down, and will start to progressively grow again only after this is over. The impact will stay for years

BillyBiggs

Mic 1972 wrote: »

we don't even know how long it will take to have a cure or vaccine. In the meantime the economy is progressively slowing down, and will start to progressively grow again only after this is over. The impact will stay for years

True. A lot of waitresses, barmen, hairdressers and business owners won’t make it till August, they’ll find it hard to keep their houses and p.c.p. bought cars.

Interested Observer

BillyBiggs wrote: »

True. A lot of waitresses, barmen, hairdressers and business owners won’t make it till August, they’ll find it hard to keep their houses and p.c.p. bought cars.

There's a moratorium on evictions.

BillyBiggs

Interested Observer wrote: »

There's a moratorium on evictions.

Fair point and I suppose you can take a break of 3 to 6 months on a mortgage. I guess it’ll be a year from now we’ll know the true picture.

The_Conductor

Sweet.Science wrote: »

You'd be mad to sell directly after this all dies down . The market will bounce back within 6-12months . People will sit on their property if they can . Supply will decrease making the recovery quicker

Hard to tell.
The ESRI are suggesting a contraction of at least 7% possibly as much as 20%
We have been adding to our commercial space like office and retail units were going out of fashion.
If we do get out of the current strange times we're in- there will most probably be a period during which construction companies try to get a feel for where demand is going to be strongest (in the medium term anyhow).

As it stands- we have made it so damn expensive to construct residential units here (through a combination of factors including irrational building codes and other red tape)- that unless there was a perception of additional margins for developers (which were on average 14% in 2018- I don't have 2019 figures)- its hard to see additional residential development coming onstream (over and above that which is already planned or currently being built).

Ireland is a remarkably expensive country- and we are going to be a complete outlier unless we can get our costs under control- that is across the board- for workers, for businesses etc. Our costs are just nuts compared to most of our peer countries in Europe.

lalababa

I think alot of people can sit on their house sales.

OttoPilot

BillyBiggs wrote: »

True. A lot of waitresses, barmen, hairdressers and business owners won’t make it till August, they’ll find it hard to keep their houses and p.c.p. bought cars.

Consultants too. A lot of projects will go on hold or be cancelled because large companies now need to hoard cash.