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Property Market 2020

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    #3032
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,865 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    BillyBiggs wrote: »
    It will be very difficult for the self-employed to get a mortgage for the next few years. It’s a prime time for people in state funded jobs to get a property for a knockdown price. As others have said cash buyers will similarly be in a very strong position. It’s a strange time for banks, with many of them about to go through a very rocky few years. Lenders will be slow to give out mortgages in the next year or two, unless your job is bullet proof. Houses will have to be sold by those going bankrupt or unable to make their mortgage repayments.

    Now there's a lovely prospect: protected recipient's of my taxes being in a secure position to profit from this crisis by purchasing my property at a knock-down bargain price.


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    #3033
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    What I think folks are ignoring here is that we require 34,000 new houses per year in the pre-Corona economy, and we delivered 18,000 new houses. If demand for new household formation fell 50%, we would be just delivering what we need.

    Of course demand is going to decrease. But there a large number of people who are living in apartments renting looking to get a home, people living at home with their folks, who will still need to form a home.

    A 2008 style crash is still not the most likely outcome in my opinion, if the economic measures being undertaken now by government and the ECB. Prices will come down a bit but fundamentally if the demand is still there for new household formation, they will drive different outcomes than we saw in the property fuelled credit crunch of 2008.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-says-34-000-houses-needed-each-year-for-next-decade-1.4110839


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    #3034
    thomasdylan
    Closed Accounts Posts: 514 ✭✭✭thomasdylan


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Now there's a lovely prospect: protected recipient's of my taxes being in a secure position to profit from this crisis by purchasing my property at a knock-down bargain price.

    By the end of the year, there'll be a load of doctors and nurses with good deposits after months of 60-80 hour weeks with nothing to spend money on.


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    #3035
    coolshannagh28
    Registered Users Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭coolshannagh28


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Now there's a lovely prospect: protected recipient's of my taxes being in a secure position to profit from this crisis by purchasing my property at a knock-down bargain price.

    It happened before.


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    #3036
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    Yes.

    It’ll be political suicide for politicians who bail out the banks. Those in opposition will have a field day.


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    #3037
    Logan Roy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 452 ✭✭Logan Roy


    BillyBiggs wrote: »
    If half of mortgage holders in Ireland take a break of 3-6 months on their mortgage all at once, will that have a negative impact on the banks?

    Why are half of mortgage holders taking a break? Are there that many people unemployed now?


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    #3038
    Taylor365
    Registered Users Posts: 2,994 ✭✭✭Taylor365


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Why are half of mortgage holders taking a break? Are there that many people unemployed now?
    Apparently, retail workers CAN afford properties!




    :pac:


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    #3039
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Why are half of mortgage holders taking a break? Are there that many people unemployed now?

    Something like 40% live paycheck to paycheck all all income levels, be that 20k a year to 200k a year. We've also shifted where one wage can support a household to needing two. Wages are long way behind the cost of living and housing. We've striped pensions and savings. A lot of people never saw the benefits of the growing economy as it was sucked into the cost of living. We've stripped any financial cushion away from a lot of people. Also in the last decade our disparity in wealth has reversed, it's now making more people poorer but fewer people much richer. But that's been govt policy.

    So that's why so many people are vulnerable to financial shocks.


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    #3040
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭Edgware


    Many people are only a paycheque away from depending on welfare. With the cost of rents now there isnt much scope for saving a bit for the rainy day.


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    #3041
    Millem
    Registered Users Posts: 7,729 ✭✭✭Millem


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Why are half of mortgage holders taking a break? Are there that many people unemployed now?

    28,000 mortgage breaks were applied for last week.


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    #3042
    IndieRoar111
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 52 ✭✭IndieRoar111


    Nijmegen wrote: »
    What I think folks are ignoring here is that we require 34,000 new houses per year in the pre-Corona economy, and we delivered 18,000 new houses. If demand for new household formation fell 50%, we would be just delivering what we need.

    Of course demand is going to decrease. But there a large number of people who are living in apartments renting looking to get a home, people living at home with their folks, who will still need to form a home.

    A 2008 style crash is still not the most likely outcome in my opinion, if the economic measures being undertaken now by government and the ECB. Prices will come down a bit but fundamentally if the demand is still there for new household formation, they will drive different outcomes than we saw in the property fuelled credit crunch of 2008.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/central-bank-says-34-000-houses-needed-each-year-for-next-decade-1.4110839

    Human beings have a habit of complicating their lives and then explaining why they did so.

    If anyone thinks the housing market is immune from this and not crash on par with 08, they are off their head.


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    #3043
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    IndieRoar111 wrote: »
    Human beings have a habit of complicating their lives and then explaining why they did so.

    If anyone thinks the housing market is immune from this and not crash on par with 08, they are off their head.

    I don't agree with him but saying something is unlikely is not the same as saying it won't happen.

    Also last time it lead directly into a housing crisis. Yet this time people think it will solve the housing crisis.


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    #3044
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    IndieRoar111 wrote: »
    If anyone thinks the housing market is immune from this and not crash on par with 08, they are off their head.

    Unlike the previous crash we don't have an enormous number of partially completed and largely unsold housing developments about to hit the market.

    Sub-prime mortgages are also a thankfully distant memory.


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    #3045
    Nijmegen
    Registered Users Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    IndieRoar111 wrote: »
    Human beings have a habit of complicating their lives and then explaining why they did so.

    If anyone thinks the housing market is immune from this and not crash on par with 08, they are off their head.

    The housing crash of 2008 was driven by excessive credit lending and driving house prices up without commensurate rise in demand.

    Fact is, we have now got a systemic under delivery of new houses and tight credit lending.

    This will insulate the property market so long as the pretty unprecedented efforts the government (and many governments) are going to to keep businesses afloat. There is a shock, but as I said earlier it's the fallacy of a lot of generals to fight the last war. This isn't like 2008.


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    #3046
    Abbey127
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 127 ✭✭Abbey127


    Zenify wrote: »
    I dont think you grasp the current situation. There wont be someone else to take the place. The market has changed. It will be changed for a lot longer than you are thinking.

    My brother has a property management company so I know a good bit I'm looking to get another two propertys in the next few months students are always looking.


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    #3047
    Dwarf.Shortage
    Registered Users Posts: 1,256 ✭✭✭Dwarf.Shortage


    Abbey127 wrote: »
    My brother has a property management company so I know a good bit I'm looking to get another two propertys in the next few months students are always looking.

    Students going to colleges which are indefinitely closed will be looking over the next few months? Yes you seem to know a good bit.


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    #3048
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,164 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Abbey127 wrote: »
    My brother has a property management company so I know a good bit I'm looking to get another two propertys in the next few months students are always looking.

    There have been large numbers of students residential units under construction this year which will all be available for the next academic year. Add to that, there will be far fewer foreign students coming to Ireland for the forthcoming academic year. That is without accounting for the fact that many native Irish may not be able to afford college in the forthcoming academic year. Many families will have a severely restricted budget as a result of job losses and there will be fewer part-time jobs available in hotels and bars as a result of higher unemployment. I would certainly not bet the house on students.


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    #3049
    garhjw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    There have been large numbers of students residential units under construction this year which will all be available for the next academic year. Add to that, there will be far fewer foreign students coming to Ireland for the forthcoming academic year. That is without accounting for the fact that many native Irish may not be able to afford college in the forthcoming academic year. Many families will have a severely restricted budget as a result of job losses and there will be fewer part-time jobs available in hotels and bars as a result of higher unemployment. I would certainly not bet the house on students.

    You’d want to cop yourself on. You clearly have no understanding of the accommodation shortage in Dublin, with of without a health crisis prices will be impacted on both sales and rents but there is huge demand and short supply. Job losses will not fix that.


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    #3050
    ittakestwo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,647 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    There is speculation that builders wont drop prices of new builds or negotiate on sale agreed prices before Corona.

    Noticed the first reduction (17%) of new a new build development in Sandyford this week. At the end of the day builders are market price takers not market price makers.

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/d-n-gaoithe-sandyford-dublin-18/4299328


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    #3051
    Dwarf.Shortage
    Registered Users Posts: 1,256 ✭✭✭Dwarf.Shortage


    garhjw wrote: »
    You’d want to cop yourself on. You clearly have no understanding of the accommodation shortage in Dublin, with of without a health crisis prices will be impacted on both sales and rents but there is huge demand and short supply. Job losses will not fix that.

    How are these newly unemployed people going to continue to fund their demand?


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    #3052
    pearcider
    Registered Users Posts: 1,033 ✭✭✭pearcider


    garhjw wrote: »
    You’d want to cop yourself on. You clearly have no understanding of the accommodation shortage in Dublin, with of without a health crisis prices will be impacted on both sales and rents but there is huge demand and short supply. Job losses will not fix that.

    Landlord over here still telling people to cop themselves on. You sound demented. Let’s just see what the daft rent reports say. Massive unemployment and no tourists in a tourist hotspot for the next year means free fall in rents.


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    #3053
    ittakestwo
    Registered Users Posts: 1,647 ✭✭✭ittakestwo


    Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »
    How are these newly unemployed people going to continue to fund their demand?

    That's it. Every city in India would have more expensive accomadtion than Dublin if prices was just determined by the shortage of accommodation.

    But the price is also determined by how much money buyers have in thier pockets. Because of this economic shock jobs and income will be lost affecting what the market can afford.


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    #3054
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,651 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    ittakestwo wrote: »
    That's it. Every city in India would have more expensive accomadtion than Dublin if prices was just determined by the shortage of accommodation.

    But the price is also determined by how much money buyers have in thier pockets. Because of this economic shock jobs and income will be lost affecting what the market can afford.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/652926/number-of-millionaires-by-city-india/

    Depends how much of the market has money.


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    #3055
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,513 ✭✭✭Villa05


    cnocbui wrote:
    Now there's a lovely prospect: protected recipient's of my taxes being in a secure position to profit from this crisis by purchasing my property at a knock-down bargain price.
    Welcome to Ireland
    Nijmegen wrote:
    Of course demand is going to decrease. But there a large number of people who are living in apartments renting looking to get a home, people living at home with their folks, who will still need to form a home.

    Graham wrote:
    Unlike the previous crash we don't have an enormous number of partially completed and largely unsold housing developments about to hit the market.

    They were negligible as they were built in the wrong location. The surplus build from 2008 suppressed prices (and still do) in low demand areas.

    We have the government debt from 2008 and a significant warehouse of non performing loans

    The negative carry-over from 2008 far outweighs any positive
    Graham wrote:
    Sub-prime mortgages are also a thankfully distant memory.

    Unfortunately they were replaced by money printing and zero% interest rates. This re prices risk in investments and risky projects that would ordinarily not have gone ahead have done so.

    It has also led to an asset price bubble hence the crash in stock market prices


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    #3056
    BillyBiggs
    Registered Users Posts: 167 ✭✭BillyBiggs


    Logan Roy wrote: »
    Why are half of mortgage holders taking a break? Are there that many people unemployed now?

    You don’t have to be unemployed to be in trouble for the next few months. Many self employed people will have huge reductions in salary for a few months. Think taxi-drivers, dentists, carpenters, painters, plasterers, etc.


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    #3057
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,164 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    garhjw wrote: »
    You’d want to cop yourself on. You clearly have no understanding of the accommodation shortage in Dublin, with of without a health crisis prices will be impacted on both sales and rents but there is huge demand and short supply. Job losses will not fix that.

    You have to be joking. Rents were already falling in Dublin before the virus started. Take thousands of students out of the picture, take thousands of foreigners who are longer travel air for work in the services sector can count in the number of units which will be completed this year. There will also be many former air B&Bs coming into the market. Rents are going to drop and student rents most of all.


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    #3058
    garhjw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    pearcider wrote: »
    Landlord over here still telling people to cop themselves on. You sound demented. Let’s just see what the daft rent reports say. Massive unemployment and no tourists in a tourist hotspot for the next year means free fall in rents.

    Read my post again. I said rents and prices will be impacted but demand is still will still be Ahead of supply. Ex air bnb won’t fix shortage. Lower rents won’t increase supply, only more units increases supply.


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    #3059
    garhjw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    You have to be joking. Rents were already falling in Dublin before the virus started. Take thousands of students out of the picture, take thousands of foreigners who are longer travel air for work in the services sector can count in the number of units which will be completed this year. There will also be many former air B&Bs coming into the market. Rents are going to drop and student rents most of all.

    I said rents and prices will be impacted but there is still demand. People don’t read posts.


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    #3060
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,164 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    garhjw wrote: »
    I said rents and prices will be impacted but there is still demand. People don’t read posts.

    There will always be some demand, however it will be very weak compared to what has been the case up to the middle of last year. Supply is increasing due to the number of built rents under construction, student units under construction as well as former air B&Bs. At the same time there will be fewer takers available. That can only have one outcome.


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    #3061
    garhjw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,424 ✭✭✭garhjw


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    There will always be some demand, however it will be very weak compared to what has been the case up to the middle of last year. Supply is increasing due to the number of built rents under construction, student units under construction as well as former air B&Bs. At the same time there will be fewer takers available. That can only have one outcome.

    Are we not saying the same thing then?


This discussion has been closed.
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