November 2019 by-elections

BonnieSituation

L1011 wrote: »

Soc Dems did even worse than I expected in DMW. That was one of their target seats for the next GE, on that result they may as well give up there.

And they even got my #2

For Forks Sake

L1011 wrote: »

Soc Dems did even worse than I expected in DMW. That was one of their target seats for the next GE, on that result they may as well give up there.

Barely outpolled O'Doherty in Fingal as well. Time to fold the tent.

Mongfinder General

Augme wrote: »

Why? The greens will be far more transfer friendly than Fianna fail and Lorraine Clifford Lee I would have thought.

Gemma O’Doherty on 4%. I suspect transfers from her won’t be going to the left. Not sure about SF transfers. If I was putting a bet on I would lump on the Greens at this point but it’s far from over.

L1011

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Barely outpolled O'Doherty in Fingal as well. Time to fold the tent.

It was disasterous by elections that pushed Democratic Left in to Labour wasn't it? Ancient history at this stage but a very comparable situation

Itssoeasy

Just looking at the PBP/ solidarity vote in CNC and it's dropped by 11.3%. That's bad for mick Barry in the next election.

MIKEKC

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just looking at the PBP/ solidarity vote in CNC and it's dropped by 11.3%. That's bad for mick Barry in the next election.

Didn't Mick Barry back the Lias drivers in their dispute? They were already on over e50,000 .Thought PBP/solidarity were supporting the lower paid

An Ciarraioch

Surprisingly strong performance by Labour in Wexford - could Lawlor overtake Murphy after Green, PBP and SF transfers?

Sierra Oscar

L1011 wrote: »

It was disasterous by elections that pushed Democratic Left in to Labour wasn't it? Ancient history at this stage but a very comparable situation

Yeah I can see Shorthall and Murphy trying to rejoin Labour now that their fortunes are on the rise. The Social Democrats have had a number of outings in elections at this stage and they are only going backwards.

Although wouldn't surprise me if Labour decide to keep Shorthall well outside the tent.

man98

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Surprisingly strong performance by Labour in Wexford - could Lawlor overtake Murphy after Green, PBP and SF transfers?

Unlikely, but very possible. I've been saying throughout the campaign that this was likely, for the record. Lawlor putting in a strong contention for a close finish, if Lawlor is eliminated the seat will go to FF without a doubt, it Murphy is eliminated it could be anyone's game.

blanch152

christy c wrote: »

Never said you were a member or supporter of any party.

I'm not sure where you stand, you vote for FF or FG but would like them to merge? If so, is there not another party to vote for which better reflects your views?

You generally find that those who want FF and FG to merge are supporters of another party.

Brendan Bendar

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Just looking at the PBP/ solidarity vote in CNC and it's dropped by 11.3%. That's bad for mick Barry in the next election.

Good news for the taxpayer though, bro.

All Barry wants is nationalize everything, let the drones in, and soak John Q Taxpayer without let or hindrance.


Have that guy well copped.

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/AndrewLowth1/status/1200840806426390528

L1011

So SF get the first seat. Predictions of a widespread demise after PE18 and LE/EE19 definitely have to be revised now but they're still in severe trouble in some places.

Harder left parties and independents could have trouble retaining any seats

VinLieger

LOL hearing the Sinn Fein candidate trumpeting how their anti-austerity message was heard loud and clear..... the turnout was 26% also austerity has been over for several years........

An Ciarraioch

Possible recount in Wexford, with Labour and FG neck-and-neck - could the elimination order yet stymie FF?

An Ciarraioch

Verona Murphy eliminated:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1200849500438446086

Sierra Oscar

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Possible recount in Wexford, with Labour and FG neck-and-neck - could the elimination order yet stymie FF?

There's a large gap for Labour to close. Looks like a win for FF.

An Ciarraioch

Pádraig O'Sullivan confirmed elected in Cork North Central.

Itssoeasy

So in CNC its obviously a good day for FF holding the seat. SF Will be happy enough getting into second. FG will be wondering what in the name of jaysus is going on. I mean Colm Burke was well known in the area and was an experienced campaigner and would have been favourite or at least in with a good shout. Finishing third I doubt was in the plans. And I wonder how much dara Murphy and the mess he's leaving behind hurt Colm Burke.

An Ciarraioch

I see Gemma O'Doherty has thanked Justin Barrett for joining her canvass team.

An Ciarraioch

Byrne elected in Wexford - surprisingly, FF got more FG transfers than Labour:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1200861882460131328

Liberta Per Gli Ultra

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Byrne elected in Wexford - surprisingly, FF got more FG transfers than Labour:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1200861882460131328

Right-wing votes transferring to centre-right instead of centre. Seems normal if the civil war is over. FF and FG, the best of friends .

Charles Babbage

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Byrne elected in Wexford - surprisingly, FF got more FG transfers than Labour:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1200861882460131328

FF are supporting the FG government, why would FG not transfer in a bye election to a party supporting their party?

jd

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Byrne elected in Wexford - surprisingly, FF got more FG transfers than Labour:

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1200861882460131328

Lawlor had a huge vote in Wexford town, with people who might (demographically) be expected to be FG supporters voting for him rather than Verona.

An Ciarraioch

All wrapped up now, Joe O'Brien takes Fingal by almost a 5,000 vote margin over FF:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hdI2HVT1LmC3UGL_AwGMJGq-dUd8Qu0VrVRS5VW5M54/htmlview?sle=true#gid=1709040152

An Ciarraioch

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

I see Gemma O'Doherty has thanked Justin Barrett for joining her canvass team.

The axis of idiocy.

Itssoeasy

Itssoeasy wrote: »

And I wonder how much dara Murphy and the mess he's leaving behind hurt Colm Burke.

If they've got one TD who clearly cant be bothered his hole showing up then what the hell makes them think that they should they get another one?? :cool:

hmmm

A poor showing by FG in general. It's difficult to see what the point of them going into the general election is, and I think that's reflected in the apathy towards their candidates. Spending appears largely out of control, there's been a huge expansion in social welfare programs including social housing spending, and taxes haven't been reduced all that much from crisis levels. Leo going on about the people who get up in the morning is all very well as a soundbite, but what has he actually delivered for workers?

FG should have been capturing the vote of the tens of thousands of newly employed who are not thrilled about paying taxes and receiving low services, but instead nearly all the parties seem to be competing to see who can increase handouts the fastest. That's not a part of the political spectrum that FG can ever win, they could be showering cash on social housing estates from planes and they'd still be described as "right wing" by commentators.

An Ciarraioch

hmmm wrote: »

A poor showing by FG in general. It's difficult to see what the point of them going into the general election is, and I think that's reflected in the apathy towards their candidates. Spending appears largely out of control, there's been a huge expansion in social welfare programs including social housing spending, and taxes haven't been reduced all that much from crisis levels. Leo going on about the people who get up in the morning is all very well as a soundbite, but what has he actually delivered for workers?

FG should have been capturing the vote of the tens of thousands of newly employed who are not thrilled about paying taxes and receiving low services, but instead nearly all the parties seem to be competing to see who can increase handouts the fastest. That's not a part of the political spectrum that FG can ever win, they could be showering cash on social housing estates from planes and they'd still be described as "right wing" by commentators.

Don't most opinion polls, however, show the public favouring investment in services over tax cuts?

Good loser

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Don't most opinion polls, however, show the public favouring investment in services over tax cuts?

They do too - but only in theory.

Who were all out against water charges, LPT and now Carbon Taxes?

The Irish Socialists (oxymorons).