November 2019 by-elections

Stark

Any idea what the actual date is going to be for these? Seems like it's getting quite close now but I haven't heard anything on it.

L1011

29th, not sure if the writs are moved yet though

Sierra Oscar

L1011 wrote: »

29th, not sure if the writs are moved yet though

Writ is due to be moved at some stage this week, I'd imagine tomorrow. They definitely will be held on the 29th as you say.

It will be interesting to see how the results end up. Anyone care to make any predictions? The Government could conceivably loose all four which would not be all that surprising considering how difficult it is for governing parties to hold onto seats in a by-election. I think FG have a chance of retaining a seat in Dublin Mid-West, but it looks fairly bleak in the other constituencies. I'm not sure running James Reilly again in Dublin Fingal is a good idea. I reckon it could end up 3 FF, 1 FG.

If FG manage to hold onto to two or more seats then it bodes well for them in a General Election.

Either way the arithmetic of the current Dáil is on a knife-edge and the results of these by-elections could hasten a General Election.

L1011

Before the European election I said it'd bring down the Dail, but I was expecting Smith to get in and not Wallace or Daly so the numbers didn't go as I planned. Still plausible though. FF winning just increases their desire for a GE rather than destroys the numbers immediately of course

NovemberWren

or, it may be 13th December. anyhow, they decide today.
are s.f. running anyone.
Gemma O'D. may do well.

L1011

NovemberWren wrote: »

or, it may be 13th December. anyhow, they decide today.
are s.f. running anyone.
Gemma O'D. may do well.

SF will run a candidate for all four, that's a given - as will FF, FG, Greens and Labour. All of those have named their candidates already. SocDems have 3/4 with nobody in Wexford yet; they could still do all 4.

Gemma will be lucky to exceed her Euro 1.8%

is_that_so

All by-elections linked to from this page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Dublin_Mid-West_by-election

Dublin Midwest looks hugely competitive. Gogarty might be a dark horse here and Joanna Tuffy hoping to revitalise her career. FG and FF in the mix too but most of them look like they are doing a pre GE run.
Wexford FF v FG by the looks of things and could be tight.
Cork North Central - probably one that FG reckon they can be very competitive in with Senator Colm Burke in it. The Kelleher vote machine had no need for a sidekick so a challenge for FF.
Dublin Fingal - GOD back in the fray again! Really a no hoper. FF v Greens I reckon with Reilly looking for forgiveness. Mulligan will get some of the Clare Daly votes but he's not Clare Daly.

Prediction 2 FF, 1 Ind(Gogarty), 1 FG.

L1011

Don't think Gogarty will get it this time but it's laying a marker for May or whenever when I think he will. Ditto Tuffy who won't get it this time and probably won't in May but has a better chance of doing so by running now

NovemberWren

L1011 wrote: »

SF will run a candidate for all four, that's a given - as will FF, FG, Greens and Labour. All of those have named their candidates already. SocDems have 3/4 with nobody in Wexford yet; they could still do all 4.

Gemma will be lucky to exceed her Euro 1.8%

If I remember correctly, that was well over 8K votes that Gemma was given in the Euros.
That seems very good to me, for a newbie politician, (aside from the Presidency ).
Query; what is the quota in Fingal?

L1011

Newbies have won seats, without her substantial media profile at that. It was 1.8%, the quota is directly and solely connected to the valid votes and number of seats so vote volume in a larger constituency isn't relevant nor do we know the quota in volume terms yet

She won't get her expenses (quarter quota)

Pherekydes

NovemberWren wrote: »

If I remember correctly, that was well over 8K votes that Gemma was given in the Euros.
Query; what is the quota in Fingal?

She won 6659 votes in the Dublin constituency. She has no base in North Dublin. Her natural constituency would be South Dublin or Dun Laoghaire.

The quota last time around was just over 10k.

blanch152

Pherekydes wrote: »

She won 6659 votes in the Dublin constituency. She has no base in North Dublin. Her natural constituency would be South Dublin or Dun Laoghaire.

The quota last time around was just over 10k.

As it is a by-election, the quote will be 50% plus one vote, which, on the basis of the last election gives you 30,195.

Even if every single GO’D voter lived in that constituency, she would still lose her deposit,

is_that_so

Ms Clifford-Lee has a bit of a potty mouth! Not going to help her chances in Fingal. Dare I say, Reilly has a chance?!
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/senator-apologises-for-traveller-and-dwarf-tweets-but-claims-she-is-victim-of-smear-campaign-38679061.html

selassie

Greens and Daly's replacement probably have a decent chance in Fingal , Reilly is a toxic candidate and Clifford Lee's past remarks won't help her.

Stark

Anyone know if there have been any polls taken yet? Have 3 or 4 people in mind I'd like to vote for and curious if any of them are in the running.

L1011

I'd suspect there'll only be one poll on the Saturday or Sunday (leaked the evening before as always) beforehand due to the costs etc.

blanch152

selassie wrote: »

Greens and Daly's replacement probably have a decent chance in Fingal , Reilly is a toxic candidate and Clifford Lee's past remarks won't help her.

Reilly's problem is transfers, hard to see where he might get them from, even if he managed to put in a good first preference performance.

L1011

Someone on twitter, who I've managed to lose due to the bouncy app update, did a vote breakout that I'm guessing is from tallies for the specific boxes (not just the overall LEAs as some cross the constituency border) in Fingal from May and the results were relatively surprising to me.

If party performance then carried through it would be a straight race between Clifford Lee and Smith. At least one of the papers was already claiming this

What if any damage C-L has suffered from the old tweets, how transfers will fall and how useful applying results from a completely different election for a different purpose is means that you can't make any assumptions from this though. Mulligan only ran in one area obviously so that's a clear distortion factor as he will definitely get some of Daly's votes

is_that_so

selassie wrote: »

Greens and Daly's replacement probably have a decent chance in Fingal , Reilly is a toxic candidate and Clifford Lee's past remarks won't help her.

For the Greens maybe but a lot of the Daly vote is personal. It is more likely to go all over the place.

is_that_so

blanch152 wrote: »

Reilly's problem is transfers, hard to see where he might get them from, even if he managed to put in a good first preference performance.

He's really doing a trial run to be the FG TD in the GE.

blanch152

is_that_so wrote: »

He's really doing a trial run to be the FG TD in the GE.

That is true of a lot of the candidates. The Greens know that they will have chances in some of these constituencies in a general election, and they will know after the bye-elections which ones to concentrate on.

jay0109

Clifford Lee went to the Church of Pavee Point today and Bishop Collins gave her an absolute pardon after she sacrificed herself on the high altar of Liberal PC-dom.
Onward and upward Ms Clifford Lee

Edgware

blanch152 wrote: »

Reilly's problem is transfers, hard to see where he might get them from, even if he managed to put in a good first preference performance.

He's problem will be getting No 1s. There is a lot of anti government sentiment bubbling under the surface particularly in commuter land constituencies. Cost of housing, high rents, inadequate public transport, school spaces etc.

AndrewJRenko

is_that_so wrote: »

He's really doing a trial run to be the FG TD in the GE.

Aren't they all? Or most candidates anyway.

jay0109 wrote: »

Clifford Lee went to the Church of Pavee Point today and Bishop Collins gave her an absolute pardon after she sacrificed herself on the high altar of Liberal PC-dom.
Onward and upward Ms Clifford Lee

Funnily enough, on the brief clip I saw on the news, Collins pointed out that, despite the fact that they are located in a deconsecrated church, he doesn't give absolution and he doesn't speak for the entire Traveller community. He was absolutely clear that his acceptance was personal, and on behalf of Pavee Point as an organisation.

Brendan Bendar

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Aren't they all? Or most candidates anyway.





Funnily enough, on the brief clip I saw on the news, Collins pointed out that, despite the fact that they are located in a deconsecrated church, he doesn't give absolution and he doesn't speak for the entire Traveller community. He was absolutely clear that his acceptance was personal, and on behalf of Pavee Point as an organisation.

I doubt if the lads and lassies currently at the back of the airport are losing any sleep over Ms Clifford Lee’s tweets....

Inquitus

IMO Fingal will go:

1. FF
2. Lab
3. Mulligan (He needs all of Daly's votes, can't see it happening even though he is the "anointed" 1.
4. Reilly (Needs to retire from Politics for good)

is_that_so

Inquitus wrote: »

IMO Fingal will go:

1. FF
2. Lab
3. Mulligan (He needs all of Daly's votes, can't see it happening even though he is the "anointed" 1.
4. Reilly (Needs to retire from Politics for good)

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.
Agree on Mulligan but I'm curious to see what kind of "green" vote is out there.

Inquitus

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.

Aye but Darragh O'Brien got a quota on the first count, so she should see most of those voters go for her this time out, that's why I think she will win. Only Clare Daly's vote compared and I think Mulligan will definitely not carry over as much as he would like, Clare has a high profile in the constituency for years and years, something he does not and even as the "annointed" one I think he struggles. He could eclsipse Lab for 2nd though, as they only ran one candidate in 2016.

L1011

Would expect a poll, possibly just National but probably the 4 constituencies in better detail, on Saturday night.

At this stage of the campaign I'm going to go with Labour in Fingal (but I'm only barely confident, could still go FF); FF Wexford, FF Cork NC and FG Dublin West.

retalivity

I cant believe there is an irish woman called Cinnamon, and she is standing for PBP, of all parties

is_that_so

Here's a piece on what Wexford thinks of Verona. Might they yet upset people's expectations?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-and-vocal-what-does-wexford-think-of-verona-murphy-1.4092217