November 2019 by-elections

Stark

Any idea what the actual date is going to be for these? Seems like it's getting quite close now but I haven't heard anything on it.

L1011

29th, not sure if the writs are moved yet though

Sierra Oscar

L1011 wrote: »

29th, not sure if the writs are moved yet though

Writ is due to be moved at some stage this week, I'd imagine tomorrow. They definitely will be held on the 29th as you say.

It will be interesting to see how the results end up. Anyone care to make any predictions? The Government could conceivably loose all four which would not be all that surprising considering how difficult it is for governing parties to hold onto seats in a by-election. I think FG have a chance of retaining a seat in Dublin Mid-West, but it looks fairly bleak in the other constituencies. I'm not sure running James Reilly again in Dublin Fingal is a good idea. I reckon it could end up 3 FF, 1 FG.

If FG manage to hold onto to two or more seats then it bodes well for them in a General Election.

Either way the arithmetic of the current Dáil is on a knife-edge and the results of these by-elections could hasten a General Election.

L1011

Before the European election I said it'd bring down the Dail, but I was expecting Smith to get in and not Wallace or Daly so the numbers didn't go as I planned. Still plausible though. FF winning just increases their desire for a GE rather than destroys the numbers immediately of course

NovemberWren

or, it may be 13th December. anyhow, they decide today.
are s.f. running anyone.
Gemma O'D. may do well.

L1011

NovemberWren wrote: »

or, it may be 13th December. anyhow, they decide today.
are s.f. running anyone.
Gemma O'D. may do well.

SF will run a candidate for all four, that's a given - as will FF, FG, Greens and Labour. All of those have named their candidates already. SocDems have 3/4 with nobody in Wexford yet; they could still do all 4.

Gemma will be lucky to exceed her Euro 1.8%

is_that_so

All by-elections linked to from this page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Dublin_Mid-West_by-election

Dublin Midwest looks hugely competitive. Gogarty might be a dark horse here and Joanna Tuffy hoping to revitalise her career. FG and FF in the mix too but most of them look like they are doing a pre GE run.
Wexford FF v FG by the looks of things and could be tight.
Cork North Central - probably one that FG reckon they can be very competitive in with Senator Colm Burke in it. The Kelleher vote machine had no need for a sidekick so a challenge for FF.
Dublin Fingal - GOD back in the fray again! Really a no hoper. FF v Greens I reckon with Reilly looking for forgiveness. Mulligan will get some of the Clare Daly votes but he's not Clare Daly.

Prediction 2 FF, 1 Ind(Gogarty), 1 FG.

L1011

Don't think Gogarty will get it this time but it's laying a marker for May or whenever when I think he will. Ditto Tuffy who won't get it this time and probably won't in May but has a better chance of doing so by running now

NovemberWren

L1011 wrote: »

SF will run a candidate for all four, that's a given - as will FF, FG, Greens and Labour. All of those have named their candidates already. SocDems have 3/4 with nobody in Wexford yet; they could still do all 4.

Gemma will be lucky to exceed her Euro 1.8%

If I remember correctly, that was well over 8K votes that Gemma was given in the Euros.
That seems very good to me, for a newbie politician, (aside from the Presidency ).
Query; what is the quota in Fingal?

L1011

Newbies have won seats, without her substantial media profile at that. It was 1.8%, the quota is directly and solely connected to the valid votes and number of seats so vote volume in a larger constituency isn't relevant nor do we know the quota in volume terms yet

She won't get her expenses (quarter quota)

Pherekydes

NovemberWren wrote: »

If I remember correctly, that was well over 8K votes that Gemma was given in the Euros.
Query; what is the quota in Fingal?

She won 6659 votes in the Dublin constituency. She has no base in North Dublin. Her natural constituency would be South Dublin or Dun Laoghaire.

The quota last time around was just over 10k.

blanch152

Pherekydes wrote: »

She won 6659 votes in the Dublin constituency. She has no base in North Dublin. Her natural constituency would be South Dublin or Dun Laoghaire.

The quota last time around was just over 10k.

As it is a by-election, the quote will be 50% plus one vote, which, on the basis of the last election gives you 30,195.

Even if every single GO’D voter lived in that constituency, she would still lose her deposit,

is_that_so

Ms Clifford-Lee has a bit of a potty mouth! Not going to help her chances in Fingal. Dare I say, Reilly has a chance?!
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/senator-apologises-for-traveller-and-dwarf-tweets-but-claims-she-is-victim-of-smear-campaign-38679061.html

selassie

Greens and Daly's replacement probably have a decent chance in Fingal , Reilly is a toxic candidate and Clifford Lee's past remarks won't help her.

Stark

Anyone know if there have been any polls taken yet? Have 3 or 4 people in mind I'd like to vote for and curious if any of them are in the running.

L1011

I'd suspect there'll only be one poll on the Saturday or Sunday (leaked the evening before as always) beforehand due to the costs etc.

blanch152

selassie wrote: »

Greens and Daly's replacement probably have a decent chance in Fingal , Reilly is a toxic candidate and Clifford Lee's past remarks won't help her.

Reilly's problem is transfers, hard to see where he might get them from, even if he managed to put in a good first preference performance.

L1011

Someone on twitter, who I've managed to lose due to the bouncy app update, did a vote breakout that I'm guessing is from tallies for the specific boxes (not just the overall LEAs as some cross the constituency border) in Fingal from May and the results were relatively surprising to me.

If party performance then carried through it would be a straight race between Clifford Lee and Smith. At least one of the papers was already claiming this

What if any damage C-L has suffered from the old tweets, how transfers will fall and how useful applying results from a completely different election for a different purpose is means that you can't make any assumptions from this though. Mulligan only ran in one area obviously so that's a clear distortion factor as he will definitely get some of Daly's votes

is_that_so

selassie wrote: »

Greens and Daly's replacement probably have a decent chance in Fingal , Reilly is a toxic candidate and Clifford Lee's past remarks won't help her.

For the Greens maybe but a lot of the Daly vote is personal. It is more likely to go all over the place.

is_that_so

blanch152 wrote: »

Reilly's problem is transfers, hard to see where he might get them from, even if he managed to put in a good first preference performance.

He's really doing a trial run to be the FG TD in the GE.

blanch152

is_that_so wrote: »

He's really doing a trial run to be the FG TD in the GE.

That is true of a lot of the candidates. The Greens know that they will have chances in some of these constituencies in a general election, and they will know after the bye-elections which ones to concentrate on.

jay0109

Clifford Lee went to the Church of Pavee Point today and Bishop Collins gave her an absolute pardon after she sacrificed herself on the high altar of Liberal PC-dom.
Onward and upward Ms Clifford Lee

Edgware

blanch152 wrote: »

Reilly's problem is transfers, hard to see where he might get them from, even if he managed to put in a good first preference performance.

He's problem will be getting No 1s. There is a lot of anti government sentiment bubbling under the surface particularly in commuter land constituencies. Cost of housing, high rents, inadequate public transport, school spaces etc.

AndrewJRenko

is_that_so wrote: »

He's really doing a trial run to be the FG TD in the GE.

Aren't they all? Or most candidates anyway.

jay0109 wrote: »

Clifford Lee went to the Church of Pavee Point today and Bishop Collins gave her an absolute pardon after she sacrificed herself on the high altar of Liberal PC-dom.
Onward and upward Ms Clifford Lee

Funnily enough, on the brief clip I saw on the news, Collins pointed out that, despite the fact that they are located in a deconsecrated church, he doesn't give absolution and he doesn't speak for the entire Traveller community. He was absolutely clear that his acceptance was personal, and on behalf of Pavee Point as an organisation.

Brendan Bendar

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Aren't they all? Or most candidates anyway.





Funnily enough, on the brief clip I saw on the news, Collins pointed out that, despite the fact that they are located in a deconsecrated church, he doesn't give absolution and he doesn't speak for the entire Traveller community. He was absolutely clear that his acceptance was personal, and on behalf of Pavee Point as an organisation.

I doubt if the lads and lassies currently at the back of the airport are losing any sleep over Ms Clifford Lee’s tweets....

Inquitus

IMO Fingal will go:

1. FF
2. Lab
3. Mulligan (He needs all of Daly's votes, can't see it happening even though he is the "anointed" 1.
4. Reilly (Needs to retire from Politics for good)

is_that_so

Inquitus wrote: »

IMO Fingal will go:

1. FF
2. Lab
3. Mulligan (He needs all of Daly's votes, can't see it happening even though he is the "anointed" 1.
4. Reilly (Needs to retire from Politics for good)

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.
Agree on Mulligan but I'm curious to see what kind of "green" vote is out there.

Inquitus

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.

Aye but Darragh O'Brien got a quota on the first count, so she should see most of those voters go for her this time out, that's why I think she will win. Only Clare Daly's vote compared and I think Mulligan will definitely not carry over as much as he would like, Clare has a high profile in the constituency for years and years, something he does not and even as the "annointed" one I think he struggles. He could eclsipse Lab for 2nd though, as they only ran one candidate in 2016.

L1011

Would expect a poll, possibly just National but probably the 4 constituencies in better detail, on Saturday night.

At this stage of the campaign I'm going to go with Labour in Fingal (but I'm only barely confident, could still go FF); FF Wexford, FF Cork NC and FG Dublin West.

retalivity

I cant believe there is an irish woman called Cinnamon, and she is standing for PBP, of all parties

is_that_so

Here's a piece on what Wexford thinks of Verona. Might they yet upset people's expectations?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-and-vocal-what-does-wexford-think-of-verona-murphy-1.4092217

AndrewJRenko

is_that_so wrote: »

Here's a piece on what Wexford thinks of Verona. Might they yet upset people's expectations?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-and-vocal-what-does-wexford-think-of-verona-murphy-1.4092217

It really puts her 'apology' in context when she's now making a virtue of 'being vocal'.



Clear and obvious dog-whistleing.

man98

is_that_so wrote: »

Here's a piece on what Wexford thinks of Verona. Might they yet upset people's expectations?
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/local-and-vocal-what-does-wexford-think-of-verona-murphy-1.4092217

Murphy's chances have been underplayed since the beginning of this campaign. A cushy little article in her home area or in another FG TD's home parish might make her look beefed up, but there is very little in the way of a county wide ground campaign due to a lack of party support, one could surmise this is why she made these remarks in the first place to capture the spotlight. Plenty of variables here, but the Wexford by election is far from being called for Malcolm Byrne (FF), transfers and turnout absolutely key in this area - as it will be in Fingal - however, due to the fact that Wexford is not Dublin, pol corrs tend to have difficulty properly understanding the complexities of this constituency, similarly to CNC.

Sierra Oscar

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye but Darragh O'Brien got a quota on the first count, so she should see most of those voters go for her this time out, that's why I think she will win. Only Clare Daly's vote compared and I think Mulligan will definitely not carry over as much as he would like, Clare has a high profile in the constituency for years and years, something he does not and even as the "annointed" one I think he struggles. He could eclsipse Lab for 2nd though, as they only ran one candidate in 2016.

She has also really upped her profile locally since getting into the Seanad.

Labour candidate will do well here also I suspect.

padd b1975

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.
Agree on Mulligan but I'm curious to see what kind of "green" vote is out there.

I heard that Mulligan lad on a Late Debate constituency special recently.

He didn't come across as a good communicator at all and the couple of hoary old sound bites he trotted out were cringe worthy.

blanch152

man98 wrote: »

Murphy's chances have been underplayed since the beginning of this campaign. A cushy little article in her home area or in another FG TD's home parish might make her look beefed up, but there is very little in the way of a county wide ground campaign due to a lack of party support, one could surmise this is why she made these remarks in the first place to capture the spotlight. Plenty of variables here, but the Wexford by election is far from being called for Malcolm Byrne (FF), transfers and turnout absolutely key in this area - as it will be in Fingal - however, due to the fact that Wexford is not Dublin, pol corrs tend to have difficulty properly understanding the complexities of this constituency, similarly to CNC.

The problem for Byrne will be if Wexford town has a bigger turnout than his homebase of North Wexford.

NovemberWren

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure as she was behind Reilly in 2016 by nearly 2000 FPV votes.
Agree on Mulligan but I'm curious to see what kind of "green" vote is out there.

yep. dem greens for over the last year have been an intrepid hive of activity with all union employees.
On the radio, also, it was said that the Broadband (is that in conjunction with ESB?) now needs '300 Connector' sites; and that some of these will be located in Libraries. And so, Librarians will be more important, and their E40k, E50k, salaries will be more justified.
Back on topic; Greens are the new Pink; and have assiduously been in liaison with (prob.?) all of the government local bureaucracies; are there promises there? cos' there sure definitely is votes.
Also, the Grand Hotel in Malahide, would not allow Gemma O'Doherty and supporters to be there; and they all had to stand outside.
Very good video on youtube though. (The Grand Hotel, Malahide, formerly did host meetings of F.F. and S.F.).

L1011

Three days before we get the new one, another Cork N-C TD announces they're off - Dara Murphy had already said he was standing down but clearly expected the Dail to have fallen by now so needs to go next month. Probably won't be enough time to require a second by-election before it actually does.

FG will be utterly desperate to get a solid result now as presumably Burke is who they intend to get in at the GE regardless and they wouldn't like to go in without having anyone there.

Inquitus

NovemberWren wrote: »

Very good video on youtube though. (The Grand Hotel, Malahide, formerly did host meetings of F.F. and S.F.).

They were right not to allow her to spread her xenophobic BS using their property for the purpose, I watched the video on youtube, something serious has happened that has severed her attachment to reality, from Chief Features writer at the Indo to wandering into a halal shop demanding rashers and sausages.....not to mention chemtrails and all the other conspiracy theory stuff she whackjobs on and on about.

Sierra Oscar

L1011 wrote: »

Three days before we get the new one, another Cork N-C TD announces they're off - Dara Murphy had already said he was standing down but clearly expected the Dail to have fallen by now so needs to go next month. Probably won't be enough time to require a second by-election before it actually does.

FG will be utterly desperate to get a solid result now as presumably Burke is who they intend to get in at the GE regardless and they wouldn't like to go in without having anyone there.

There's a whiff of FG trying to rally their supporters to back Burke. Can't be left without a FG TD in the constituency and all that.

L1011

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There's a whiff of FG trying to rally their supporters to back Burke. Can't be left without a FG TD in the constituency and all that.

I'd be almost certain he'll get in at a GE regardless. Plenty of places have had no FG TD in the past regardless however!

Itssoeasy

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

There's a whiff of FG trying to rally their supporters to back Burke. Can't be left without a FG TD in the constituency and all that.

Dara Murphy finally put an end to this whole carry on of being over in Europe when he's still a TD might help colm Burke tomorrow. I've talked to people who are well up on politics in cork north central and it's a given there is a FF seat and a FG seat in the constituency. So one way or the other colm burke should be a TD either by the weekend or at the next GE.

Is the FF candidate in with a shout ? I know it's a bye election caused by a FF TD going to Europe but I always felt that billy kelliher got more of a personal vote more than a FF vote up here.

Anyway an interesting weekend in cork north central.

L1011

Heard a radio report there of tiny turnouts, but particularly interesting was - if I didn't mishear this and get it completely wrong - was even worse turnout in north Wexford compared to the national average poor level in South Wexford

That could swing Lawlor back in and increases Murphy's chances also.

More commuters around Gorey that could vote later etc etc but the traffic madness, shopping madness and Toy Show will pull down that volume nationwide

Harry Palmr

Truly the elections that almost no one gave a damn about. Which could be good news for any candidate whistling for dogs.

hotmail.com

People will get elected to the Dail on perhaps the lowest turnout figures ever for Dail elections.

Inquitus

hotmail.com wrote: »

People will get elected to the Dail on perhaps the lowest turnout figures ever for Dail elections.

Aye, I went and did my civic duty in Fingal around 6pm, not many people out and about voting tbh, is likely to be the lowest turnout ever as reported. Only thing is these people are only likely to be in for a few months at most.

BonnieSituation

Just about to head back to Lucan now to do my duty.

I've never not voted and I'm aghast at those who don't ever use their franchise, but even I was contemplating not bothering. Says it all.

SafeSurfer

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Dara Murphy finally put an end to this whole carry on of being over in Europe when he's still a TD might help colm Burke tomorrow. I've talked to people who are well up on politics in cork north central and it's a given there is a FF seat and a FG seat in the constituency. So one way or the other colm burke should be a TD either by the weekend or at the next GE.

Is the FF candidate in with a shout ? I know it's a bye election caused by a FF TD going to Europe but I always felt that billy kelliher got more of a personal vote more than a FF vote up here.

Anyway an interesting weekend in cork north central.

Incredible that Murphy was an absentee TD for so long. Doing another job in another country while still claiming his maximum expenses throughout. Absolutely sickening.

hotmail.com

It shouldn't take long to count.

ankles

final turnout?

green123

Why no exit polls?