Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation · 13-07-2020 11:52PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I'd say the UK has been very naive to think the EU would actually negotiate and not just dictate what will happen.
Possible grounds to claim an unfair contract?I'd guess the UK is exploring that option and its possible ramifications.

This is the conclusion you've managed to come around to after thread no. 12 on this subject?

declanflynn · 14-07-2020 08:03AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Perhaps you`re right although the proposed customs area in Kent and elsewhere could suggest the UK is preparing for no deal and not ready to lie back for anyone. Rejecting the WA terms would be very risky unless the UK can show the EU misled them although I imagine that option is/has been looked at.
As the leaving date approaches brexiteers may look at how European countries have tried to woo UK holidaymakers back despite covid still being active,money may talk louder than`we are the EU`mantras.I`m convinced there are some very unhappy european countries behind closed doors.

Dont worry mate, the absence of british thugs holidaying in European countries wont be a problem, it may even be welcomed

Leroy42 · 14-07-2020 08:41AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I did`nt want to leave and can`t see any advantage to brexit although I sometimes wonder do all those who voted to leave know something I don`t?

But what, they are just keeping it quiet for some strange reason?

Their are no benefits to Brexit, well not on a country scale. The very fact that the government is talking about spending £705m on infrastructure that will lead to 'opportunities' but unable even at this stage to give even one example of what that opportunities might be.

Remember this is the same government that prevaricated over the continuance of free meals for disadvantaged schools kids because of the cost only two weeks ago!

In terms of the costs of the bureaucracy (13bn is the estimate) that will no doubt be brushed aside by saying that it is simply movig money from the corporate sector to the government, which spends it back into the economy so it not really a cost at all. That argument never seems to stand up when used for unemployment, training, food banks, spending on building cladding etc.

listermint · 14-07-2020 08:47AM

plenty of benefits for developers and vulture funds buying up land from broken farms and houses out from under jobless people.

The economic cost to the working person and even retired people is going to be gargantuan.

The whole i dont agree with brexit speel but.. argument is actually shocking with the backdrop of the job losses that are going to occur. Swathes of the country in turmoil. See what the town centres look like after this.

But project fear ... or some such.

14-07-2020 09:22AM

listermint wrote: »

plenty of benefits for developers and vulture funds buying up land from broken farms and houses out from under jobless people.

The economic cost to the working person and even retired people is going to be gargantuan.

The whole i dont agree with brexit speel but.. argument is actually shocking with the backdrop of the job losses that are going to occur. Swathes of the country in turmoil. See what the town centres look like after this.

But project fear ... or some such.

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

listermint · 14-07-2020 09:31AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

No no, the definitely will. Thats disingenuous to say the least. Those last vestiges of employment will be wiped out. The local shopping centre - gone. High street gone. Large regional factories - gone. Not to mention farming.

Everyone will be impacted.

RobMc59 · 14-07-2020 09:31AM

listermint wrote: »

plenty of benefits for developers and vulture funds buying up land from broken farms and houses out from under jobless people.

The economic cost to the working person and even retired people is going to be gargantuan.

The whole i dont agree with brexit speel but.. argument is actually shocking with the backdrop of the job losses that are going to occur. Swathes of the country in turmoil. See what the town centres look like after this.

But project fear ... or some such.

Putting my patriotic feelings aside,I can't see anything good about brexit.
As a frequent visitor to Ireland I'm worse off financially with sterling plummeting post 2016.UK qualifications which would have stood me in good stead probably won't be recognized now,so no ifs or buts from me in defence of the indefensible brexit.

listermint · 14-07-2020 09:33AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Putting my patriotic feelings aside,I can't see anything good about brexit.
As a frequent visitor to Ireland I'm worse off financially with sterling plummeting post 2016.UK qualifications which would have stood me in good stead probably won't be recognized now,so no buts from me in defence of the indefensible brexit.

But the patriotic is a red herring.

Patriotism would be full on antibrexit. Its tearing the country apart and down. The UK as an entity is losing in all sectors.

listermint · 14-07-2020 09:38AM

Actually i would go as far as saying if anyone was indeed Patriotic, they would dedicate their time rooting out and exposing the individuals that are tyranically trying to rip the very fabric of UK democracy down. That includes media organisations pulling at the fabric of UK society. Its completely Anti UK.

This laissez faire attitude in relation to brexit and then claiming to be pro UK are completely at odds.

Leroy42 · 14-07-2020 09:40AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

Which parts?

Cheensbo · 14-07-2020 10:02AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Which parts?

Windsor, Berkshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire etc.

Leroy42 · 14-07-2020 10:05AM

Cheensbo wrote: »

Windsor, Berkshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire etc.

So they had no dealings with exports or people did not ever travel? There was no FDI? They didn't use foreign workers in ay of those areas?

Cheensbo · 14-07-2020 10:07AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

So they had no dealings with exports or people did not ever travel? There was no FDI? They didn't use foreign workers in ay of those areas?

It was a joke, based on the possible residential areas for the small few that will benefit from Brexit...

Lemming · 14-07-2020 10:10AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Quite frankly, in many parts of the UK they'll notice no difference at all!

listermint wrote: »

No no, the definitely will. Thats disingenuous to say the least. Those last vestiges of employment will be wiped out. The local shopping centre - gone. High street gone. Large regional factories - gone. Not to mention farming.

Everyone will be impacted.

No matter how sh1t things might appear to be in parts of the UK, it can always get much, much worse. Never be in doubt of that.

Plenty of former 'pit' villages and sink-hole estates dotted around me in Yorkshire that can stand testament to that. Considering that social welfare assistance (and state pensions) in the UK are a fraction of the Irish system, combined with an enthusiastically applied draconian benefits sanction system, not to begin mentioning the farce that is the "universal credit" system, imagine how much worse matters can get if all the above - despite its warts and all - starts getting squeezed further between an increased demand due to more job losses and a decrease in service budgets because the councils have no money and the government is cutting spending.

Just to add some perspective; the job seekers allowance for 2020 is (for those over 25) £74 p/week.

It can always get worse. Much worse.

ancapailldorcha · 14-07-2020 10:13AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Which parts?

To me, it's not parts in terms of geography but of demographics though most of these will be based in London and the southeast of the country.

I'm referring to those people working in services like IT, banking, insurance, pensions, investments, etc along with the traditional middle classes like doctors, engineers and scientists. These people will probably be fine for the most part. Even for me, the worst case scenario is that I'll have to try and get a pharma job in Ireland. I'd prefer not to leave the UK but I won't be living in penury. As usual, it'll be those with the least wealth and power who pay for Brexit.

listermint · 14-07-2020 10:50AM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

To me, it's not parts in terms of geography but of demographics though most of these will be based in London and the southeast of the country.

I'm referring to those people working in services like IT, banking, insurance, pensions, investments, etc along with the traditional middle classes like doctors, engineers and scientists. These people will probably be fine for the most part. Even for me, the worst case scenario is that I'll have to try and get a pharma job in Ireland. I'd prefer not to leave the UK but I won't be living in penury. As usual, it'll be those with the least wealth and power who pay for Brexit.

Id disagree, Unless Services is sorted out, The traditional middle class jobs will be absolutely hit. And it may / will result in emigration. Not Immigration

ancapailldorcha · 14-07-2020 10:57AM

listermint wrote: »

Id disagree, Unless Services is sorted out, The traditional middle class jobs will be absolutely hit. And it may / will result in emigration. Not Immigration

Of course but these people will at least have that as an option. It's the unskilled element of the working class who'll get his even harder in my opinion. We're already seeing that with Covid.

Sam Russell · 14-07-2020 11:08AM

Cheensbo wrote: »

Windsor, Berkshire, Surrey, Oxfordshire etc.

Where are Honda based? Just 2 km west of Oxfordshire. And BMW Mini? Oxfordshire.

Nowhere is safe.

Perhaps Windsor Castle. I wonder who lives there?

Cheensbo · 14-07-2020 11:10AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Where are Honda based? Just 2 km west of Oxfordshire. And BMW Mini? Oxfordshire.

Nowhere is safe.

Perhaps Windsor Castle. I wonder who lives there?

Hey, stop dissecting my post, you are project fear.

( My post has got about as much foundation & integrity as Brexit itself )

54and56 · 14-07-2020 11:17AM

listermint wrote: »

Id disagree, Unless Services is sorted out, The traditional middle class jobs will be absolutely hit. And it may / will result in emigration. Not Immigration

It's not so easy for professionals to emigrate when their qualifications aren't reciprocally recognised!!

Sam Russell · 14-07-2020 11:21AM

Cheensbo wrote: »

Hey, stop dissecting my post, you are project fear.

( My post has got about as much foundation & integrity as Brexit itself )

I was just pointing out that nowhere is going to escape from Brexit. There is no project fear - except fear itself.

The reality must be dawning on the UK Gov, as the deadline draws near. They are suddenly moving on the reality of C&E requirements at Dover by procurring large areas of land to park their lorries on, and proposals re NI. Allocating real funds, and hiring real people (or proposing to - not sure they know how many though).

Of course, the NI problem could be solved easily by just closing the ports of Larne, and Belfast, and just get everything to go through Dublin - 60% does anyway.

The cost of paperwork alone for C&E will cripple most businesses if they can only find people who know how to do it.

Leroy42 · 14-07-2020 11:33AM

It is actually amazing to watch the lack of any real pushback on the announcements over the last few days/weeks.

First they had the admission that NI would be subject to border controls, then they have the admission that Kent, and 10 other sites, were going to have to contain lorry parks. £705m was going t0 be spent on all these new systems (and nobody can have any confidence that this is even remotely what the final costs will be) and then yesterday the government starts their media blitz by telling everyone that travel insurance is going to rise, pet passports are now 4 months (at least) 13bn in export custom costs and that the HoC is taking back some of the devolved powers from Scotland and Wales.

But hardly a murmur from the media.

Professor Moriarty · 14-07-2020 11:46AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

It is actually amazing to watch the lack of any real pushback on the announcements over the last few days/weeks.

First they had the admission that NI would be subject to border controls, then they have the admission that Kent, and 10 other sites, were going to have to contain lorry parks. £705m was going t0 be spent on all these new systems (and nobody can have any confidence that this is even remotely what the final costs will be) and then yesterday the government starts their media blitz by telling everyone that travel insurance is going to rise, pet passports are now 4 months (at least) 13bn in export custom costs and that the HoC is taking back some of the devolved powers from Scotland and Wales.

But hardly a murmur from the media.

Yeah I was wondering about that. My thinking is that pro Brexit papers don't want to draw attention to these problems and anti Brexit papers have decided that a sudden shock in 2021 is the best medicine.

14-07-2020 11:50AM

listermint wrote: »

No no, the definitely will. Thats disingenuous to say the least. Those last vestiges of employment will be wiped out. The local shopping centre - gone. High street gone. Large regional factories - gone. Not to mention farming.

Everyone will be impacted.

In many of those areas the decline has been going on for decades, they're already as low as they can get. Don't forget that the likes of supermarkets & pound shops will always be there, people need to eat and buy basics, they won't disappear, unless the place depopulates.

Irish Praetorian · 14-07-2020 12:23PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

The middle class might not initially notice they are also getting poorer

Take an engineer 5 years ago on 50K GBP increasing at 2K per year

2015 - 50k GBP == 72.5k EUR
2020 - 60k GBP == 55.5k EUR

he/she thinks they are moving up in world, but his/her world is sinking due to Brexit making the pound more volatile than Mexican Peso

Um, I might be mistaken but wouldn't the latter conversion rate suggest 1GBP to be worth less than 1 euro? I mean it would be closer to 90c in that latter calculation but the current rate seems to be 1GBP to 1.10 EUR.

ambro25 · 14-07-2020 02:02PM

54and56 wrote: »

It's not so easy for professionals to emigrate when their qualifications aren't reciprocally recognised!!

I've had to explain to my boss this week, why there'd no point moving an EU27 with UK professional quals currently working at one of our UK branches, over to us on the Continent to help the group 'get Brexit-ready for 2021'.

4+ years, that I've been posting/warning/sharing about it.

2.5 years, since I left the UK over it.

2.4 years, that I've been explaining to the new boss (filtering upwards to the fingers-in-the-ears UK overbosses).

5 months to go.

Shrug, yawn, etc.

CelticRambler · 14-07-2020 03:12PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

So in pound terms their salary kept increasing but in just about every major currency they are actually poorer, i just picked the euro as we can related to, pounds downfall been epic against pretty much every currency.

Another way of looking at the same point is how the Brexit promise of lower prices if the UK was no longer shackled to the EU was immediately undermined: on referendum day, 1 GBP bought 1.4893USD ; four years later, on 23rd June 2020 1 GBP was worth only $1.2518USD. That means that your side of American beef or your magnificent MAGA widget, or indeed anything else priced in USofA dollars has increased in price by 15%. Any half-decent trade deal would be doing well to deliver that kind of saving under normal circumstances; with a crack team of negotiators delivering 15% savings across the board, the UK will only get themselves back to where they started .... but at least they'll have their very very very dark blue (French-made) passports to fill up with ETIAS stamps.

Leroy42 · 14-07-2020 03:37PM

Yeah, but you are only looking at it from the POV of the external costs. The dropping pound, as has been the case since the Ref, has allowed the UK to increase the volume of exports as they become relatively cheaper to the likes of the EU and US.

Any price increase on imports, such as on Irish beef, will be dealt with by lower standards so that cheaper Brazilian beef (or whatever) can be substituted. It doesn't matter if the cost of that has increased over the last few years, it is relative to what they were paying before.

of course I am sure anyone with any knowledge can blow holes in my points above, but that isn't really the point. The point is that the positives, or opportunities I think they are calling them, will be shouted from the rooftops whilst the negatives will be ignored or dismissed as remoaners wanted the UK to fail.

serfboard · 14-07-2020 04:16PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

.... but at least they'll have their very very very dark blue (French-made) passports to fill up with ETIAS stamps.

Except that a lot of the hypocrites won't need the stamps, as they've applied for EU passports.

Apart from Nigel Farage, whose children have German passports (the old vanquished enemy is good for something, eh?), you have the hilarious propsect of Boris Johnson's father applying for a French passport so that Boris Johnson's children will be immune from Boris Johnson's disastrous policies.

Independent wrote:

Mr Johnson Sr has applied so that his grandchildren can live and work in the EU after Brexit.

CelticRambler · 14-07-2020 04:29PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Any price increase on imports, such as on Irish beef, will be dealt with by lower standards so that cheaper Brazilian beef (or whatever) can be substituted. It doesn't matter if the cost of that has increased over the last few years, it is relative to what they were paying before.

Yes, but the "cheaper Brazilian beef" upon which the "Brexit = cheaper food" argument was based, is now 15% dearer than at the time of the argument, which means that it's simply not going to be all that cheap by the time it reaches Joe Gammon's plate.

As for the UK's exports being cheaper ... well, 50% of those are financial services, so that doesn't really feed into the ordinary economy; and of the rest, those exports into the EU are going to get a lot more expensive in four-and-a-half months' time when they're subject to tariffs; and to the rest of the world, they're pretty much the same price as before because the UK has to first import the component parts using now-more-expensive foreign currency.

Brexit discussion thread XII (Please read OP before posting)

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