New Zealand vs Ireland RWC Quarter Final,19th October 2019 match thread.

kuang1

Venue: Tokyo Stadium, Tokyo.
Kick off 7.15pm local, 11.15am Irish time, 11.15pm NZ time.
Officials: Ref: Nigel Owens(Wales). Assistant referees: Angus Gardner(Australia) & Pascal Gauzere(France). TMO Graham Hughes (England).

Betting/odds: NZ 1/7, Draw 30/1, Ireland 9/2. Handicap betting has Ireland 12 points behind NZ

Teams:



Teams:

I did my first ever proper write up for a match thread last November when we last met these guys...I'm back not by demand, more by superstition.

When these two teams walked out onto the pitch in the Aviva last November, I turned to the lad beside me and said:
"I've been waiting for this game for a long time."
He responded:
"Well you're gonna have to wait a tiny while longer, coz we've got 3 songs and a dance first!"

This Saturday, it'll be only 2 songs and a dance that will seperate the emergence of the players from the tunnel and the actual kick-off of what promises to be a proper heavyweight clash.
Myself and a few others in these parts wouldn't have predicted that we'd see this particular match up happening at this stage of the WC, but here we are.

Re(ffs!):

Officials were named earlier in the week. I groaned when I saw Gardner on the line, others groaned when they heard it was Nige who gets the whistle. We were hoping for Barnes possibly?

But to all that I say PAH!
Repeat after me: A REF, ASSISTANT REF NOR TMO WILL LOSE US THIS GAME. If we all repeat this enough in the next 36 hours or so then it will not happen!!!
(and also try to remember that those of you who will be contributing to this thread mid-game )

Owens is fine and I'm very confident he'll not be what we are talking about after this game. (pleaseletmeberightpleaseletmeberight...)



Team Selections

Ireland:

The Irish team this week really picked itself imo. Whereas I do understand the calls for Larmour to have started, it was never a realistic expectation for anyone to have had. Schmidt has used the term "a big game player" in relation to POM. Kearney is also in this category. These guys have a proven record of showing up when it really matters and Saturday will fortify that even further methinks.

Henshaw/Ringrose pairing...Bundi's bad luck last week made that an inevitability.

Front row...that was a given as was the Ryan/Henderson pairing.

VDF played very well last November against NZ and the no.7 jersey was never going to be anyone elses.
Similar to Larmour, I could see why there were a few faint voices looking for room to be made for Ruddock in the back row. He's done well in a green jersey when given the chance. But I think he's much more effective as an impact player, and we'll see him on for POM around 58 minutes barring injury before that.

Murray/Sexton seem to be getting back their hum at last...big day from those 2 coming up.
Earls is in great shape and playing the rugby of his life, would worry if they reigned high balls down on him though.

Stockdale...hasn't lived up to his billing in this WC imo. He's not far off, but we need him to hit his 2018 heights again. Worth pointing out that this is 11...yes only 11 months ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDygFs9HuBc

NZ:

The NZ 23 is very interesting I think. No Crotty, no Smith. hmmm...

The backline is a little green (:o) in places. Bridge and Reece on the wings have 7 and 5 caps respectively.
Fly half Mo'unga has 14, Goodhue has 11.

Ok ok ok...you've then got Aaron Smith with 89, B Barret with 80, and Lienert-Brown on 40.
But is there a chink of oppurtuntiy for us to exploit these rugby toddlers?

Maybe, maybe not. Zoom out and compare both squads for this game, and you've got (thanks Murray Kinsella for doing this math) 1,058 Irish caps vs 1,075 NZ ones. Any greeness in that NZ squad is comfortably counter balanced with the old heads. K Read is on his 125th cap ffs...Whitelock coming up on 116...

The NZ back row may well have the edge over ours tbf.
Household names...I mean put it like this...how many reading this can tell me the first names of these players: Savea, Cane, Read. Even a casual rugby fan could sound off Ardie, Sam, Kieran. 231 caps between these 3 alone.
Scary $hit!

That said...could there be a chance Retallick isn't battle ready and we could hand his ass to him for a second time in a year? Possibly! He's not entirely cold...got 30 minutes against Nimibia...but can he get immediately up to speed in a do or die match like this? James Ryan might have something to say about it.




Benches:

Just a quick synopsis of these:
Sonny Bill, Perenara and J Barrett vs McGrath, Carbery, Larmour. I think NZ have the upper hand here.
Todd vs Ruddock...I'd have Ruddock for sure.
Scott Barrett vs Beirne...probably Barrett but Beirne could well have a higher ceiling.
I think our replacement front row shades it.

Prediction:

I'll be accused of conveniently ignoring what's gone on in the tournament so far. But might I remind everyone of the type of chat that was going on the week before last November's match? We had stuttered and stumbled over Argentina the week before. No way were we gonna be able to surmount the NZ challenge.
Form is temporary etc...and in Schmidt we have a class operator.

We've beaten these guys twice in our last 3 encounters.
We even climbed above them in the world rankings (albeit veeeeerry briefly) this year despite not playing as well as 2018. This only happened because this NZ team is not superhuman, and have been beaten by Australia and could only draw at home with the Boks.

Total points scored in our last 4 encounters: 87-83 in our favour. 65-59 in our last 3.
Bottom line...there is no huge gap between these 2 teams anymore.

That's why I think the 12 point handicap in the bookies is off. We were supposed to be 6 points worse than them at home last November. The actual result was of course a 7 point victory for us. A swing of 13.

I'm going to predict that those number crunchers are consistent in their 13 point inaccuracy of that day, and hence we will win by...you guessed it...1 point. :D:D

Ireland 29-28 NZ

Bring it on.

Niallof9

No longer a team to fear for us. Man for man we are just as good. As usual its our temperament in quarter finals, and we need a quick start. Hopefully the form we have shown coming into it was just either a smokescreen or a blip.

Heart said's Ireland, mind saids the All Blacks due to the pressure faced. They have more experience in the business end of tournaments. New Zealand by 10 if i'm being realistic. In dreamland something like the 16-9 win for us.

I just cannot see a 2015 WC QF capitulation happening.

I think we will rue the loss to Japan and thats why 2019 will stay a failure if it is NZ to win out on Saturday. There's no getting away from it.

The whole reason Joe stayed was to make up for the crushing horror of 2015. There is no way in hell that is it. Not using Stockdale, no Murray sniping, lack of power plays. Something has to be up. Was new zealand maybe even the plan all along? The team of r-us-e

Sephiral

I'm predicting Stockdale to be used extensively off set piece plays. He has barely been used in attack and I think that is a ploy. We put Scotland away rapidly and Japan denied us the ball so we have a lot in the tank IMO.

Henry Ford III

NZ 1/7. Bookies are seldom that far off.

Having said that this game is very exciting as a prospect.

Niallof9

Henry Ford III wrote: »

NZ 1/7. Bookies are seldom that far off.

Having said that this game is very exciting as a prospect.

what were the odds for Chicago. Something outrageous at one point like 30-1? I think Joe Schmidt even referenced it.

I'm not putting much store in that. Thats normal enough. If you played New Zealand in five tests they'd bestyou in 3 out of the 5 i reckon. They are just annoyingly consistent and ruthless, and at that level of natural ability like a Kilkenny or Dublin in GAA. It gives you less chance.

But man for man i think we have a good shot. On form none. It needs to be the best display of any player thats pulled on a green shirt. The grand slams, europe, november pale in comparison. Can we do that? We just can't be hearing the hard luck stories after and the next times. This is the last time for many of them.

Henry Ford III

Niallof9 wrote: »

what were the odds for Chicago. Something outrageous at one point like 30-1? I think Joe Schmidt even referenced it.

Doesn't matter really. That was then and this is now. The stakes are way higher too.

Niallof9

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Doesn't matter really. That was then and this is now. The stakes are way higher too.

True i'm eating into my own arguments in terms of the past not meaning much. I agree there. I suppose all i meant was we are always no matter what underdogs in this test. We'd have to beat them for years on end and by big margins for that to change.

Danthemanhere

Let's get real. This is the game that matters. Our wins against New Zealand were great but they weren't at the World Cup. This is the real deal, knockout, do or die. We've only played New Zealand once at the World Cup, way back in 1995. That shows that this doesn't come around too often. Our reputation as World Cup chokers hasn't been helped by our defeat to Japan, this is our chance to rectify it. Beat New Zealand and the title of chokers can no longer be thrown at us. This is the last tournament for a good few long servents and for Schmidt, this could be their last game. For that reason, we should see a performance filled with a ferocious effort, will that be enough? Maybe not but let's see them give it a go.

MadYaker

This feels like the biggest game this team has played.

henryporter

Didn't Owens make a bags of England v Argentina a bit? Anyway hope he's finding form just like Ireland

raclle

It's going to require one hell of a turn around in such a short space of time which doesn't leave most of us quite confident tbh.

Everything will have to come together and I pray to god we have some sort of plan and have it worked to perfection.

Yeah_Right

Great write up Kuang. And that's the last nice thing I'm saying to a Paddy until around 2pm on Saturday. And I include my wife in that.

I find it interesting that people bring up the inexperience at test level of the AB backline. Mo'oaga, Goodhue and Bridge have all been regular starters for the 3 time champion Crusader team and have been part of the AB set up for 2 years. Barrett played a lot of FB in his first 4 years in the ABs. At the last RWC most of his appearances were off the bench in the backfield. Including the final. As for Reese, I think he's going to do the same thing Julian Savea did in his first test.

This backline is going carve Ireland up because you guys don't have the pace or skill to compete with them.

aloooof

Niallof9 wrote: »

what were the odds for Chicago. Something outrageous at one point like 30-1? I think Joe Schmidt even referenced it.

Absolutely no chance we were as long as 30-1. I’d be surprised if we were even as long as 10-1 tbh.

pc7

Really enjoyed that, great write up, spat my tea out at ‘3 songs and a dance’!
Come on Ireland!!!!

Yeah_Right

Great write up Kuang. And that's the last nice thing I'm saying to a Paddy until around 2pm on Saturday. And I include my wife in that.

I find it interesting that people bring up the inexperience at test level of the AB backline. Mo'oaga, Goodhue and Bridge have all been regular starters for the 3 time champion Crusader team and have been part of the AB set up for 2 years. Barrett played a lot of FB in his first 4 years in the ABs. At the last RWC most of his appearances were off the bench in the backfield. Including the final. As for Reese, I think he's going to do the same thing Julian Savea did in his first test.

This backline is going carve Ireland up because you guys don't have the pace or skill to compete with them.

3 the square

What happens if the game finishes a draw after the full time whistle??

The Lost Sheep

Squidgy Black wrote: »

It's not. One's a build up thread, one's a match thread, albeit a premature one, but sure so is Yeah_Right's optimism

there was a duplicate for a short while but someone clearly deleted the other thread or merged it into here

Working Saturday so hopefully will get to see some of the game

thebaz

Yeah_Right wrote: »

This backline is going carve Ireland up because you guys don't have the pace or skill to compete with them.

I would just hope this is the arrogant thinking of the All Blacks themselves, somehow I think not

The Lost Sheep

3 the square wrote: »

What happens if the game finishes a draw after the full time whistle??

20 minutes of extra time and if still level another 10 minutes of sudden death extra time

awec

Threads merged.

raclle

cheers

sydthebeat

im bricking it.

If there is one big game left in the likes of Best and Kearney... and one singular masterpieces for POM, Earls, Henshaw, Ringrose and Murray.... for Sexton to play to his potential.... for our tight five to show absolutely no mercy, never a step backwards.... for young kids like Ryan, VDF and Stockdale to stand tall and be confident in themselves.. and for CJ to let loose that bokke volcanic energy that comes when facing a black shirt.

If it can all come together, please god let it come together on Saturday.

i just hope this team doesn't go out and freeze and get absolutely hockied.

TXPTGR1

I’d like to see us turn our backs on the Haka to psych them out
Ridiculous that they the time to do this dance before every game

TXPTGR1

TXPTGR1 wrote: »

I’d like to see us turn our backs on the Haka to psych them out
Ridiculous that they the time to do this dance before every game

Were you making the same comment before the Samoa match?

TXPTGR1

Basil3 wrote: »

Were you making the same comment before the Samoa match?

No because It’s not a joke marketing ploy with Samoa.
Don’t think any team should be allowed do it tbh

Yeah_Right

This match is going to be vital for the future of Irish rugby. You will see how important it is to have 8 forwards with ball skills with fast feet, fast hands and fast minds. James Ryan will get an education from the greatest 2nd row partnership in world rugby and while he will be humiliated, it will be good for his future development. VdF will get taught that there is more to loose forward play than just tackling.
Your backs will see what can happen with a scrum half who can pass to a moving target more than 5 yards away. And your back 3 that read the field in front of them and turn defence into into attack.

BakeMeACake

England at 11/8 for 13+ win coupled with ABs at 5/6 for 13+ win shouldnt be too far off the mark

P.Walnuts

Yeah_Right wrote: »

This match is going to be vital for the future of Irish rugby. You will see how important it is to have 8 forwards with ball skills with fast feet, fast hands and fast minds. James Ryan will get an education from the greatest 2nd row partnership in world rugby and while he will be humiliated, it will be good for his future development. VdF will get taught that there is more to loose forward play than just tackling.
Your backs will see what can happen with a scrum half who can pass to a moving target more than 5 yards away. And your back 3 that read the field in front of them and turn defence into into attack.

Once upon a time on this forum a kiwi said that Ireland should be happy just to score a try against NZ.

It seems arrogance is a national trait

Yeah_Right

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Once upon a time on this forum a kiwi said that Ireland should be happy just to score a try against NZ.

It seems arrogance is a national trait

I understand that sentiment. Personally I think this team should be happy they're even taking the field with the ABs. Let's face it, they were lucky to reach the quarter finals.

P.Walnuts

Yeah_Right wrote: »

I understand that sentiment. Personally I think this team should be happy they're even taking the field with the ABs. Let's face it, they were lucky to reach the quarter finals.

Like I get your on a wind up.....the question is why?

aloooof

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Like I get your on a wind up.....the question is why?

For the craic, presumably?

In any case, sure lookit, we're just happy to be here and we'll see how it goes. (Embracing my inner Deccie there).

P.Walnuts

aloooof wrote: »

For the craic, presumably?

In any case, sure lookit, we're just happy to be here and we'll see how it goes. (Embracing my inner Deccie there).

Yet mention the haka and suddenly everything gets deadly serious...

The Rape of Lucretia

I think we can get this over the line on Saturday.

At various times over the last three years, there have been moments where things have been divisive and looked gloomy. But we are no pro rogues. We are a great country, and cross border cooperation makes us a match for anyone.

We can find a way to take control and deal a blow. We are accustomed to union. We can stop their backs by putting in hard tackles and then going for the soft shoulder. We just need creative, positive, and innovative ways to find a way to do that, and move on. We have the leader now to do that.

Saturday will not be an end of itself, but just brings us to the next stage of the process, where we can also succeed, allowing us to progress, develop, and achieve things against other countries that we have been unable to do in the group structure.

We can clear out, divide, have it, and unlock the victory.

Lets deliver Quarter Final !

flatface

Calling it - James Ryan person of the match.

Yeah_Right

P.Walnuts wrote: »

Like I get you're on a wind up.....the question is why?

I'm not on a wind up. I'm absolutely certain that the ABs will crush Ireland. There's 3 maybe 4 players in the Irish side that could make the ABs. This is knock out sport and Ireland can't handle the pressure. A couple of marginal calls and Sexton will lose his rag. We all know that if Sexton is having a tantrum, Ireland has nothing.

Dave_The_Sheep

This is a side of Yeah Right that we don't see very often.

I prefer normal, moderately placid, non balls-to-the-wall Yeah Right.

Ardillaun

Niallof9 wrote: »

If you played New Zealand in five tests they'd bestyou in 3 out of the 5 i reckon.

I’d say more like 9/10 in a good series. A lot of bounces, slips and penalties will also have to go our way for us to have a chance. But unlike them we should have nothing else to think about. The attitude must be that injuries don’t matter now - give it everything - because this is our final, the biggest game many of these players have left in their careers.

Dave_The_Sheep

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

This is a side of Yeah Right that we don't see very often.

I prefer normal, moderately placid, non balls-to-the-wall Yeah Right.

I dunno. I'm quite enjoying this version.

Dave_The_Sheep

Ah it has it's charms, I suppose.

Neil3030

Let him do what he needs to convince himself his team has a chance. It's kind of adorable.

errlloyd

One desperate plea here. But if anyone happens to hear of a ticket or two for this please pm me. Its getting properly squeaky bum time with regards to tickets in Japan.

mangobob

thebaz wrote: »

I would just hope this is the arrogant thinking of the All Blacks themselves, somehow I think not

Sadly I don't think this is arrogance at all. I believe its an all too real prospect. But then I am an incurable pessimist, a state engendered by being an Irish rugby fan for just over 3 decades now. That's a lot of disappointment and psychological baggage for a human being to fully process.

As formidable as we can potentially be at the top of our game, we have been miles off our 2018 peak. We are also perennial chokers at this level whereas NZ are the most successful team in WC history. Furthermore although not a vintage AB's team they are still terrifying when they are in full flow. They are about 2 or 3 levels above us in terms of attacking threat and can hurt us from literally anywhere. In contrast offensively we are far less creative, far more laboured and at times utterly predictable.

The truth is, while we have beaten them in 2 of the last 3 encounters, this is a different kettle of fish entirely. We need to be at the absolute pinnacle of our powers, with several players having the game of their lives to turn them over in the quarter final of a world cup. In contrast, if we are even a few percent below our full potential then they will win handily. Kills me to say it, but I actually don't see this being close in the end.

NZ by about 12-15 for me

s7ryf3925pivug

NZ to spear-tackle Sexton in the opening minute. Then they'll continue with 15 men on the field and win by a large margin. Then they'll call Sexton a cry-baby.

Dubinusa

Ireland by 5. Close match, but we don't fear them. They can attack from anywhere, but they have to have possession. Think Beirne should have got the nod. POM has been very poor. Experience or not, he's been brutal.
Anyway, kick for goal! And bury them with garryowens.

AdamD

mangobob wrote: »

Sadly I don't think this is arrogance at all. I believe its an all too real prospect. But then I am an incurable pessimist, a state engendered by being an Irish rugby fan for just over 3 decades now. That's a lot of disappointment and psychological baggage for a human being to fully process.

As formidable as we can potentially be at the top of our game, we have been miles off our 2018 peak. We are also perennial chokers at this level whereas NZ are the most successful team in WC history. Furthermore although not a vintage AB's team they are still terrifying when they are in full flow. They are about 2 or 3 levels above us in terms of attacking threat and can hurt us from literally anywhere. In contrast offensively we are far less creative, far more laboured and at times utterly predictable.

The truth is, while we have beaten them in 2 of the last 3 encounters, this is a different kettle of fish entirely. We need to be at the absolute pinnacle of our powers, with several players having the game of their lives to turn them over in the quarter final of a world cup. In contrast, if we are even a few percent below our full potential then they will win handily. Kills me to say it, but I actually don't see this being close in the end.

NZ by about 12-15 for me

I really don't think this stuff is true anymore. Teams rarely have 15 players firing on all cylinders either.

Niallof9

aloooof wrote: »

Absolutely no chance we were as long as 30-1. I’d be surprised if we were even as long as 10-1 tbh.

Some kiwi bookmakers had it at 14-1 definitely. Fair enough maybe not that high at 30-1 but I remember joe saying something about odds at the time and thinking it was crazy.

Point being bookies odds mean little against nz they are always favorites

Getting through Friday will be tough

Snow Garden

I predict Ringrose will have a super game with a few line breaks and a try. He is already playing well especially defensively but I think he will let fly tomorrow.

stephen_n

Yeah_Right wrote: »

I understand that sentiment. Personally I think this team should be happy they're even taking the field with the ABs. Let's face it, they were lucky to reach the quarter finals.

Why is an Australian bigging up NZ so much?

Yeah_Right

stephen_n wrote: »

Why is an Australian bigging up NZ so much?

Speaking of Australia, how do you reckon your boys will go against them tomorrow?

stephen_n

Yeah_Right wrote: »

Speaking of Australia, how do you reckon your boys will go against them tomorrow?

The team from the mainland?

.ak

As soon as our faith was sealed in getting NZ in the Q4 I felt I lost any excitement/hope for a Q4 victory. It’s seems that way for a lot of other fans too. Hard to see anything but a sound NZ win here, anything else would be totally against the run of play.

Reading all the optimistic posts here have me getting nervous though.. damn you all.