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New Zealand vs Ireland RWC Quarter Final,19th October 2019 match thread.

  • 17-10-2019 5:01pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 3,005 ✭✭✭ kuang1


    Venue: Tokyo Stadium, Tokyo.
    Kick off 7.15pm local, 11.15am Irish time, 11.15pm NZ time.
    Officials: Ref: Nigel Owens(Wales). Assistant referees: Angus Gardner(Australia) & Pascal Gauzere(France). TMO Graham Hughes (England).

    Betting/odds: NZ 1/7, Draw 30/1, Ireland 9/2. Handicap betting has Ireland 12 points behind NZ

    Teams:

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    Teams:EHD_BtPU4AAvtcl?format=jpg&name=small

    I did my first ever proper write up for a match thread last November when we last met these guys...I'm back not by demand, more by superstition. :D

    When these two teams walked out onto the pitch in the Aviva last November, I turned to the lad beside me and said:
    "I've been waiting for this game for a long time."
    He responded:
    "Well you're gonna have to wait a tiny while longer, coz we've got 3 songs and a dance first!"

    This Saturday, it'll be only 2 songs and a dance that will seperate the emergence of the players from the tunnel and the actual kick-off of what promises to be a proper heavyweight clash.
    Myself and a few others in these parts wouldn't have predicted that we'd see this particular match up happening at this stage of the WC, but here we are.

    Re(ffs!):

    Officials were named earlier in the week. I groaned when I saw Gardner on the line, others groaned when they heard it was Nige who gets the whistle. We were hoping for Barnes possibly?

    But to all that I say PAH!
    Repeat after me: A REF, ASSISTANT REF NOR TMO WILL LOSE US THIS GAME. If we all repeat this enough in the next 36 hours or so then it will not happen!!!
    (and also try to remember that those of you who will be contributing to this thread mid-game :D)

    Owens is fine and I'm very confident he'll not be what we are talking about after this game. (pleaseletmeberightpleaseletmeberight...)

    NIGEL-OWENS-800x445.jpg

    Team Selections

    Ireland:

    The Irish team this week really picked itself imo. Whereas I do understand the calls for Larmour to have started, it was never a realistic expectation for anyone to have had. Schmidt has used the term "a big game player" in relation to POM. Kearney is also in this category. These guys have a proven record of showing up when it really matters and Saturday will fortify that even further methinks.

    Henshaw/Ringrose pairing...Bundi's bad luck last week made that an inevitability.

    Front row...that was a given as was the Ryan/Henderson pairing.

    VDF played very well last November against NZ and the no.7 jersey was never going to be anyone elses.
    Similar to Larmour, I could see why there were a few faint voices looking for room to be made for Ruddock in the back row. He's done well in a green jersey when given the chance. But I think he's much more effective as an impact player, and we'll see him on for POM around 58 minutes barring injury before that.

    Murray/Sexton seem to be getting back their hum at last...big day from those 2 coming up.
    Earls is in great shape and playing the rugby of his life, would worry if they reigned high balls down on him though.

    Stockdale...hasn't lived up to his billing in this WC imo. He's not far off, but we need him to hit his 2018 heights again. Worth pointing out that this is 11...yes only 11 months ago:



    NZ:

    The NZ 23 is very interesting I think. No Crotty, no Smith. hmmm...

    The backline is a little green (:o) in places. Bridge and Reece on the wings have 7 and 5 caps respectively.
    Fly half Mo'unga has 14, Goodhue has 11.

    Ok ok ok...you've then got Aaron Smith with 89, B Barret with 80, and Lienert-Brown on 40.
    But is there a chink of oppurtuntiy for us to exploit these rugby toddlers?

    Maybe, maybe not. Zoom out and compare both squads for this game, and you've got (thanks Murray Kinsella for doing this math) 1,058 Irish caps vs 1,075 NZ ones. Any greeness in that NZ squad is comfortably counter balanced with the old heads. K Read is on his 125th cap ffs...Whitelock coming up on 116...

    The NZ back row may well have the edge over ours tbf.
    Household names...I mean put it like this...how many reading this can tell me the first names of these players: Savea, Cane, Read. Even a casual rugby fan could sound off Ardie, Sam, Kieran. 231 caps between these 3 alone.
    Scary $hit!

    That said...could there be a chance Retallick isn't battle ready and we could hand his ass to him for a second time in a year? Possibly! He's not entirely cold...got 30 minutes against Nimibia...but can he get immediately up to speed in a do or die match like this? James Ryan might have something to say about it.


    ireland-v-new-zealand-guinness-series-2018-autumn-international-rugby-union-aviva-stadium-dublin-ireland-shutterstock-editorial-9977535ap.jpg

    Benches:

    Just a quick synopsis of these:
    Sonny Bill, Perenara and J Barrett vs McGrath, Carbery, Larmour. I think NZ have the upper hand here.
    Todd vs Ruddock...I'd have Ruddock for sure.
    Scott Barrett vs Beirne...probably Barrett but Beirne could well have a higher ceiling.
    I think our replacement front row shades it.

    Prediction:

    I'll be accused of conveniently ignoring what's gone on in the tournament so far. But might I remind everyone of the type of chat that was going on the week before last November's match? We had stuttered and stumbled over Argentina the week before. No way were we gonna be able to surmount the NZ challenge.
    Form is temporary etc...and in Schmidt we have a class operator.

    We've beaten these guys twice in our last 3 encounters.
    We even climbed above them in the world rankings (albeit veeeeerry briefly) this year despite not playing as well as 2018. This only happened because this NZ team is not superhuman, and have been beaten by Australia and could only draw at home with the Boks.

    Total points scored in our last 4 encounters: 87-83 in our favour. 65-59 in our last 3.
    Bottom line...there is no huge gap between these 2 teams anymore.

    That's why I think the 12 point handicap in the bookies is off. We were supposed to be 6 points worse than them at home last November. The actual result was of course a 7 point victory for us. A swing of 13.

    I'm going to predict that those number crunchers are consistent in their 13 point inaccuracy of that day, and hence we will win by...you guessed it...1 point. :D:D:D

    Ireland 29-28 NZ

    Bring it on.


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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,287 Niallof9


    No longer a team to fear for us. Man for man we are just as good. As usual its our temperament in quarter finals, and we need a quick start. Hopefully the form we have shown coming into it was just either a smokescreen or a blip.

    Heart said's Ireland, mind saids the All Blacks due to the pressure faced. They have more experience in the business end of tournaments. New Zealand by 10 if i'm being realistic. In dreamland something like the 16-9 win for us.

    I just cannot see a 2015 WC QF capitulation happening.

    I think we will rue the loss to Japan and thats why 2019 will stay a failure if it is NZ to win out on Saturday. There's no getting away from it.

    The whole reason Joe stayed was to make up for the crushing horror of 2015. There is no way in hell that is it. Not using Stockdale, no Murray sniping, lack of power plays. Something has to be up. Was new zealand maybe even the plan all along? The team of r-us-e


  • Registered Users Posts: 385 ✭✭ Sephiral


    I'm predicting Stockdale to be used extensively off set piece plays. He has barely been used in attack and I think that is a ploy. We put Scotland away rapidly and Japan denied us the ball so we have a lot in the tank IMO.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 17,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Henry Ford III


    NZ 1/7. Bookies are seldom that far off.

    Having said that this game is very exciting as a prospect.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,287 Niallof9


    NZ 1/7. Bookies are seldom that far off.

    Having said that this game is very exciting as a prospect.

    what were the odds for Chicago. Something outrageous at one point like 30-1? I think Joe Schmidt even referenced it.

    I'm not putting much store in that. Thats normal enough. If you played New Zealand in five tests they'd bestyou in 3 out of the 5 i reckon. They are just annoyingly consistent and ruthless, and at that level of natural ability like a Kilkenny or Dublin in GAA. It gives you less chance.

    But man for man i think we have a good shot. On form none. It needs to be the best display of any player thats pulled on a green shirt. The grand slams, europe, november pale in comparison. Can we do that? We just can't be hearing the hard luck stories after and the next times. This is the last time for many of them.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 17,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Henry Ford III


    Niallof9 wrote: »
    what were the odds for Chicago. Something outrageous at one point like 30-1? I think Joe Schmidt even referenced it.

    Doesn't matter really. That was then and this is now. The stakes are way higher too.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,287 Niallof9


    Doesn't matter really. That was then and this is now. The stakes are way higher too.

    True i'm eating into my own arguments in terms of the past not meaning much. I agree there. I suppose all i meant was we are always no matter what underdogs in this test. We'd have to beat them for years on end and by big margins for that to change.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 277 ✭✭ Danthemanhere


    Let's get real. This is the game that matters. Our wins against New Zealand were great but they weren't at the World Cup. This is the real deal, knockout, do or die. We've only played New Zealand once at the World Cup, way back in 1995. That shows that this doesn't come around too often. Our reputation as World Cup chokers hasn't been helped by our defeat to Japan, this is our chance to rectify it. Beat New Zealand and the title of chokers can no longer be thrown at us. This is the last tournament for a good few long servents and for Schmidt, this could be their last game. For that reason, we should see a performance filled with a ferocious effort, will that be enough? Maybe not but let's see them give it a go.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,662 ✭✭✭✭ MadYaker


    This feels like the biggest game this team has played.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,089 ✭✭✭ henryporter


    Didn't Owens make a bags of England v Argentina a bit? Anyway hope he's finding form just like Ireland :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 640 ✭✭✭ raclle


    It's going to require one hell of a turn around in such a short space of time which doesn't leave most of us quite confident tbh.

    Everything will have to come together and I pray to god we have some sort of plan and have it worked to perfection.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,233 ✭✭✭ Yeah_Right


    Great write up Kuang. And that's the last nice thing I'm saying to a Paddy until around 2pm on Saturday. And I include my wife in that.

    I find it interesting that people bring up the inexperience at test level of the AB backline. Mo'oaga, Goodhue and Bridge have all been regular starters for the 3 time champion Crusader team and have been part of the AB set up for 2 years. Barrett played a lot of FB in his first 4 years in the ABs. At the last RWC most of his appearances were off the bench in the backfield. Including the final. As for Reese, I think he's going to do the same thing Julian Savea did in his first test.

    This backline is going carve Ireland up because you guys don't have the pace or skill to compete with them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,684 ✭✭✭ aloooof


    Niallof9 wrote: »
    what were the odds for Chicago. Something outrageous at one point like 30-1? I think Joe Schmidt even referenced it.

    Absolutely no chance we were as long as 30-1. I’d be surprised if we were even as long as 10-1 tbh.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 13,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭ pc7


    Really enjoyed that, great write up, spat my tea out at ‘3 songs and a dance’!
    Come on Ireland!!!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,233 ✭✭✭ Yeah_Right


    Great write up Kuang. And that's the last nice thing I'm saying to a Paddy until around 2pm on Saturday. And I include my wife in that.

    I find it interesting that people bring up the inexperience at test level of the AB backline. Mo'oaga, Goodhue and Bridge have all been regular starters for the 3 time champion Crusader team and have been part of the AB set up for 2 years. Barrett played a lot of FB in his first 4 years in the ABs. At the last RWC most of his appearances were off the bench in the backfield. Including the final. As for Reese, I think he's going to do the same thing Julian Savea did in his first test.

    This backline is going carve Ireland up because you guys don't have the pace or skill to compete with them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 588 ✭✭✭ 3 the square


    What happens if the game finishes a draw after the full time whistle??


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,967 ✭✭✭✭ The Lost Sheep


    It's not. One's a build up thread, one's a match thread, albeit a premature one, but sure so is Yeah_Right's optimism
    there was a duplicate for a short while but someone clearly deleted the other thread or merged it into here

    Working Saturday so hopefully will get to see some of the game


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,532 ✭✭✭✭ thebaz


    Yeah_Right wrote: »

    This backline is going carve Ireland up because you guys don't have the pace or skill to compete with them.

    I would just hope this is the arrogant thinking of the All Blacks themselves, somehow I think not


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,967 ✭✭✭✭ The Lost Sheep


    What happens if the game finishes a draw after the full time whistle??

    20 minutes of extra time and if still level another 10 minutes of sudden death extra time


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 49,421 CMod ✭✭✭✭ awec


    Threads merged.


  • Registered Users Posts: 640 ✭✭✭ raclle


    cheers


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  • Subscribers Posts: 36,269 ✭✭✭✭ sydthebeat


    im bricking it.

    If there is one big game left in the likes of Best and Kearney... and one singular masterpieces for POM, Earls, Henshaw, Ringrose and Murray.... for Sexton to play to his potential.... for our tight five to show absolutely no mercy, never a step backwards.... for young kids like Ryan, VDF and Stockdale to stand tall and be confident in themselves.. and for CJ to let loose that bokke volcanic energy that comes when facing a black shirt.

    If it can all come together, please god let it come together on Saturday.

    i just hope this team doesn't go out and freeze and get absolutely hockied.


  • Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭ TXPTGR1


    I’d like to see us turn our backs on the Haka to psych them out
    Ridiculous that they the time to do this dance before every game


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    TXPTGR1 wrote: »
    I’d like to see us turn our backs on the Haka to psych them out
    Ridiculous that they the time to do this dance before every game

    Were you making the same comment before the Samoa match?


  • Registered Users Posts: 227 ✭✭ TXPTGR1


    Basil3 wrote: »
    Were you making the same comment before the Samoa match?

    No because It’s not a joke marketing ploy with Samoa.
    Don’t think any team should be allowed do it tbh


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,233 ✭✭✭ Yeah_Right


    This match is going to be vital for the future of Irish rugby. You will see how important it is to have 8 forwards with ball skills with fast feet, fast hands and fast minds. James Ryan will get an education from the greatest 2nd row partnership in world rugby and while he will be humiliated, it will be good for his future development. VdF will get taught that there is more to loose forward play than just tackling.
    Your backs will see what can happen with a scrum half who can pass to a moving target more than 5 yards away. And your back 3 that read the field in front of them and turn defence into into attack.


  • Registered Users Posts: 94 ✭✭✭ BakeMeACake


    England at 11/8 for 13+ win coupled with ABs at 5/6 for 13+ win shouldnt be too far off the mark


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,723 ✭✭✭ P.Walnuts


    Yeah_Right wrote: »
    This match is going to be vital for the future of Irish rugby. You will see how important it is to have 8 forwards with ball skills with fast feet, fast hands and fast minds. James Ryan will get an education from the greatest 2nd row partnership in world rugby and while he will be humiliated, it will be good for his future development. VdF will get taught that there is more to loose forward play than just tackling.
    Your backs will see what can happen with a scrum half who can pass to a moving target more than 5 yards away. And your back 3 that read the field in front of them and turn defence into into attack.

    Once upon a time on this forum a kiwi said that Ireland should be happy just to score a try against NZ.

    It seems arrogance is a national trait


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,233 ✭✭✭ Yeah_Right


    P.Walnuts wrote: »
    Once upon a time on this forum a kiwi said that Ireland should be happy just to score a try against NZ.

    It seems arrogance is a national trait

    I understand that sentiment. Personally I think this team should be happy they're even taking the field with the ABs. Let's face it, they were lucky to reach the quarter finals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,723 ✭✭✭ P.Walnuts


    Yeah_Right wrote: »
    I understand that sentiment. Personally I think this team should be happy they're even taking the field with the ABs. Let's face it, they were lucky to reach the quarter finals.

    Like I get your on a wind up.....the question is why?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,684 ✭✭✭ aloooof


    P.Walnuts wrote: »
    Like I get your on a wind up.....the question is why?

    For the craic, presumably?

    In any case, sure lookit, we're just happy to be here and we'll see how it goes. (Embracing my inner Deccie there).


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