Storm Lorenzo: October 3/4 2019 **Technical Discussion Only**

sdanseo

Latest ICON - no real changes. Keeps centre west of 20°W and not bothering us in the slightest.

Gaoth Laidir

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

You get so much joy delivering bad news Gaoth it's actually quite funny lol...18z icon rolling now....let's see will it move towards the euros

It's pretty much what the NHC have said now too, though I think their 100 knots is still a good bit on the high side. The highest surface winds measured by two aircraft missions tonight were 78 knots.

No point in getting carried away in the hype. It is what it is.

Water John

A country shutdown is preferrable to going to funerals.
I would reckon the death toll is usually higher than the official records. I know one elderly man who died as a result of Ophelia.

squarecircles

you must be some craic at a party.

smelly sock

Water John wrote: »

A country shutdown is preferrable to going to funerals.
I would reckon the death toll is usually higher than the official records. I know one elderly man who died as a result of Ophelia.

Not the point i was making. Id prefer no bad weather at all. If it comes then by all means take relevant measures

Gaoth Laidir

Latest windfields from both aircraft recon data and satellite methods.

Oneiric 3

I think GL's updated NHC chart above is taking note of the general trend of the EPS, which as opposed to the individual operational runs, has been fairly consistent up to now.

These two charts show the EPS probs for MSLP < 1000 hPa and < 980 hPa for next Thursday.



Lots of possibilities on the table, though any deeper low would be more likely to run up off the west coast. The probability chart for 850 winds > 50 knots also remains pretty much as it was in the last chart I posted earlier today.

Brussels Sprout

I had planned on visiting a friend in Kerry on Thursday to do some outdoor work. Worth re-arranging for a different time?

JanuarySnowstor

The gfs isn't budging in fact it's even further West. Some one of the models is wrong and it should be resolved tomorrow morning....
Noaa seem to be siding with gfs after initially thinking the exam was favoured

Comhrá

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

I had planned on visiting a friend in Kerry on Thursday to do some outdoor work. Worth re-arranging for a different time?

Wait for 24 hrs. just to be sure and check back here before making any decisions.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I think GL's updated NHC chart above is taking note of the general trend of the EPS, which as opposed to the individual operational runs, has been fairly consistent up to now.

These two charts show the EPS probs for MSLP < 1000 hPa and < 980 hPa for next Thursday.



Lots of possibilities on the table, though any deeper low would be more likely to run up off the west coast. The probability chart for 850 winds > 50 knots also remains pretty much as it was in the last chart I posted earlier today.

Apparently the NHC favour the multimodel ensemble consensus (TVCN, I think) in the shorter term, then single-model ensembles in the longer term. Their best-performing ensemble most years is the ECM, followed by the UKM and GFS. They have the CMC well down.

Looking at their latest forecast it seems be broadly influenced by the ECM ensemble in the long term, but I'm sure it's not as simple as that.

Gaoth Laidir

The three TAB models (Shallow, Medium and Deep) give an indication of what the steering flows are like through different depths of the atmosphere. The Shallow version (TABS) shows the lower-level steering flow taking it towards France, whereas the TABM and TABD show that the mean deeper steering flow is more westerly and towards Greenland. I suppose the variation in all the global models is to do with how deep they have the system as it gets picked up in the westerlies. The UKM (EGRI) must have it the shallowest.

Oneiric 3

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Looking at their latest forecast it seems be broadly influenced by the ECM ensemble in the long term, but I'm sure it's not as simple as that.
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Perhaps, but the ECMWF mean has been quite consistent as to where the strongest winds are more likely to occur these last few days. This latest chart, which admittedly only shows probs for WS at the 850 level, continues with the trend, and one that the NHC seems to be favoring the most.. at this point in time at least.

Meteorite58

Would appear perhaps that the NHC is taking a line more or less half way between the HRES and the ENS leaning a bit more towards HRES .

Oneiric 3

One fun note about tonight's run is that the ECM mean is showing around 5% chance of an actual hurricane.. or hurricane force winds, over Connacht on Thursday.

Gaoth Laidir

Meteorite, where do you get those charts?

Meteorite58

Here yo go ..... ECMWF own site and NOAA


https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/tcall.php?selectYear=2019&selectBasin=North%20Atlantic&selectStorm=LORENZO13L




https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/tcyclone/tc_strike_probability?facets=undefined&time=2019092912,0,2019092912&unique_id=13L_LORENZO_2019

Gaoth Laidir

It seems to be completing an eyewall replacement now, according to these two microwave scans 3 hours apart. The larger eye is closing back in around the southwestern part now. This might keep the intensity up for another while before the weakening overcomes it.



Earlier

Oneiric 3

GFS run tonight. Staying well out to the west and pretty similar to the ICON.



Migraine inducing stuff.

And here is the 'spread' of all of the GFS 18z members. Unusually, there seems to be a good agreement between basically all of them regarding general track of this storm.



Anyway, here is to more roundabouts and swings tomorrow.. and the day after.. and the day after that again.

Little snowy old me

Ah well, I think even the most hype prone user in here now has to relent and accept that there will be no hurricane. There will be no warnings and apart from some milder weather, there won't be any impact from Lorenzo. Game over.

pad199207

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Ah well, I think even the most hype prone user in here now has to relent and accept that there will be no hurricane. There will be no warnings and apart from some milder weather, there won't be any impact from Lorenzo. Game over.

There was never going to be a hurricane..

Meteorite58

Mod Note: Little snowy old me you have received a warning for trolling, do not post in this thread again.

Kermit.de.frog

There is a risk of a potentially serious event toward the end of the week but there is considerable uncertainty with Lorenzo.

My advice is to not ignore the GFS for now but treat it as an unlikely evolution here.

Balmed Out

Just heard of this hurricane. Flying Tuesday evening from sao paulo to paris and on to cork weds morning, likely to cause any issues do ye think?

Professor Genius

Balmed Out wrote: »

Just heard of this hurricane. Flying Tuesday evening from sao paulo to paris and on to cork weds morning, likely to cause any issues do ye think?

It begins.....

Oneiric 3

Last night's ECMWF run now has the potential storm running up near the west coast:



More in line this model's consensus, of which there is little change from the previous run (12z) regarding path options.

The 00z runs of the GFS & Icon pretty much as they were, will the Arpege has it running a little closer. The UKMO however, is going for a direct hit.


Summary: the fun and games continue.

Graces7

lcasey90 wrote: »

We will never experience What the Bahamas have to deal with the worse we will get is cat 1 maybe cat 2. Our buildings are also alot stronger sure they're will be damage and downed trees/ power lines. Il be happy with a moderate storm from the remnants of the hurricane.

crazy talk.... make sure your affairs are in order.. :eek:

Oneiric 3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is a risk of a potentially serious event toward the end of the week but there is considerable uncertainty with Lorenzo.

My advice is to not ignore the GFS for now but treat it as an unlikely evolution here.

I honestly think it will be Wednesday at the least before we get some sort of basic idea, and even then... we all know how things can changed even within high-res territory.

Graces7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One fun note about tonight's run is that the ECM mean is showing around 5% chance of an actual hurricane.. or hurricane force winds, over Connacht on Thursday.

Oh dear! There go my supplies! Worry not as well stocked for just such an event

Whatever comes, ready here, but would rather it didn't. and very grateful for the forewarning. THANK YOU!

west mayo offshore island....

KingdomRushed

Changes again on the ECM. Lorenzo remnants staying well west of land. Some wind for north west counties. Nothing of note on this run