Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

liamtech

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It could be nonsense, it was just a flyer from sky eu correspondent though he is obviously speaking to his sources so who knows? Heard it a couple of other places too, will only believe it when i see it all the same.

Does letwin preclude them from bringing back mv on monday? Not sure it does. They can rush the legislation through very quickly and depends then how opposition go about counter measures. All very speculative it has to be said.

im not sure it does prevent it from coming back for a vote - but it does kinda prevent vote from being meaningful

Letwin effectively says HOC cannot accept a deal without first ensuring all legislation is sorted

Which triggers Benn act, which means extension - which means election? VONC?

Tbh i am getting mighty fed up with the oppositions intransigence -

• all the opposition parties (bar the DUP if you count them as opp) dont want brexit
• want an election
• some if not all would now endorse a 2ndref
• AND they have the numbers now it seems to VONC, GNU, and force through either an extension, and or a general election, AND OR A SECOND REF

but they wont.. why?

Cause

• Swinson hates Corbyn
• Berger/Umunna et al Hate Corbyn
• Corbyn hates the above
• The SNP hate everyone but will work with anyone to get Indyref2
• The independents hate most of the above unless they are voting to delay (not cancel) a deal, in which case they love them
• Tory Rebels hate some but not all of the above, but cannot bring themselves to back anyone over the line

Its insane - this could be done this week, but just like the Tories ALL OF THE ABOVE, not just Corbyn, are playing politics and party first nonsense

My opinion anyway

Itssoeasy

marno21 wrote: »

It doesn't surprise me that people are hostile towards a gentleman intent on wrecking his country in the pursuit of the personal gain and those of his chums.

But he's there with his son. I don't agree with his position but I think all politicians actually have a right to not be harassed or have unsavoury things yelled at them.

Itssoeasy

Rjd2 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TomBoadle/status/1185571697090531328

https://twitter.com/39_stephs/status/1185571331980566530

I know some are saying Mogg bringing his kid is cynical, but still leave him alone.

Abbot is a poor politician but the abuse she gets is so unpleasant and relentless. I do fear some day some loon will try and attack her. Obviously hope I am wrong.

Well I hope no politician here or in the UK are attacked by any one regardless of their positions. But I mean Jo Cox was killed so unfortunately it's not a case where we are hoping it doesn't happen, it already has.

Thargor

I'm supposed to be watching the sunset at the Temple of Posoideon in southern Greece but I spent the time refreshing Twitter and this thread instead

Joe_ Public

liamtech wrote: »

im not sure it does prevent it from coming back for a vote - but it does kinda prevent vote from being meaningful

Letwin effectively says HOC cannot accept a deal without first ensuring all legislation is sorted

Which triggers Benn act, which means extension - which means election? VONC?

Tbh i am getting mighty fed up with the oppositions intransigence -

• all the opposition parties (bar the DUP if you count them as opp) dont want brexit
• want an election
• some if not all would now endorse a 2ndref
• AND they have the numbers now it seems to VONC, GNU, and force through either an extension, and or a general election, AND OR A SECOND REF

but they wont.. why?

Cause

• Swinson hates Corbyn
• Berger/Umunna et al Hate Corbyn
• Corbyn hates the above
• The SNP hate everyone but will work with anyone to get Indyref2
• The independents hate most of the above unless they are voting to delay (not cancel) a deal, in which case they love them
• Tory Rebels hate some but not all of the above, but cannot bring themselves to back anyone over the line

Its insane - this could be done this week, but just like the Tories ALL OF THE ABOVE, not just Corbyn, are playing politics and party first nonsense

My opinion anyway

Yes opposition are all playing politics so its not straightforward but they've got time yet so wouldnt panic. Thing is they'll need tory votes for eithwr vonc or 2nd ref so that makes it tricky.

I thought earlier thst letwin ruled out mv but is that actually 100%? Why would JRM say theyll bring in monday if it wasnt binding? Just seems odd to me. Just have to wait and see what eu next move is ans why Johnson remains so bullish, whether just empty bluster or something more substantial.

Rjd2

marno21 wrote: »

It doesn't surprise me that people are hostile towards a gentleman intent on wrecking his country in the pursuit of the personal gain and those of his chums.

So calling someone a Nazi which I am pretty sure he isn't despite his flaws is justified?

GM228

I guess our European friends were watching the HoC live today also:-

https://twitter.com/AndrewDuffEU/status/1185589692563099648?s=19

marno21

Itssoeasy wrote: »

But he's there with his son. I don't agree with his position but I think all politicians actually have a right to not be harassed or have unsavoury things yelled at them.

Rjd2 wrote: »

So calling someone a Nazi which I am pretty sure he isn't despite his flaws is justified?

I don't agree with the behaviour. I was simply pointing out that someone who engages in that kind of "politics" is going to open themselves up to hostility. It shouldn't come to him as a surprise. And if he wanted to shield his children from it, it would be wise not to walk through a street with ongoing protests against his behaviour.

brickster69

Obviously the EU will accept an extension. The only deal they cannot accept is no deal. Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do. Bluffers thrown it's hand away already

marno21

Rjd2 wrote: »

So calling someone a Nazi which I am pretty sure he isn't despite his flaws is justified?

Perhaps the word "Nazi" is excessive, but illegally shutting down Parliament in order to ram through something for his own benefit which harms the economy of the country whilst constantly talking out of the other side of his mouth about "democracy" might rile some people into calling him one.

thecretinhop

marno21 wrote: »

Perhaps the word "Nazi" is excessive, but illegally shutting down Parliament in order to ram through something for his own benefit which harms the economy of the country whilst constantly talking out of the other side of his mouth about "democracy" might rile some people into calling him one.

so its ok then,?

Joe_ Public

brickster69 wrote: »

Obviously the EU will accept an extension. The only deal they cannot accept is no deal. Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do. Bluffers thrown it's hand away already

Its kind of a bit sad though that Johnson's team are taking it as some kind of masterstroke that the eu reopened the WA. To do what? To go back to a position they were happy to accept 2 years ago and which was a major UK concession. I mean, some victory, right? And now we're back to keep no deal on table, maximum leverage angle again. When the uk learns how to negotiate in a mature, grown up fashion, maybe it can stop getting itself into these kind of messes.

Professor Moriarty

brickster69 wrote: »

Obviously the EU will accept an extension. The only deal they cannot accept is no deal. Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do. Bluffers thrown it's hand away already

We'll see.

FrancieBrady

brickster69 wrote: »

Obviously the EU will accept an extension. The only deal they cannot accept is no deal. Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do. Bluffers thrown it's hand away already

Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do...UNLESS the UK came with serious alternatives...which they did. Totally consistent from the EU.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Backstop gone and withdrawal agreement opened which they said they would never do...UNLESS the UK came with serious alternatives...which they did. Totally consistent from the EU.

In fact, under Johnson's deal, the NI arrangement is worse for unionism. But don't tell anyone.

liamtech

Rjd2 wrote: »

So calling someone a Nazi which I am pretty sure he isn't despite his flaws is justified?

Originally Posted by Itssoeasy View Post
But he's there with his son. I don't agree with his position but I think all politicians actually have a right to not be harassed or have unsavoury things yelled at them.

I think getting that abusive towards anyone is horrible and disgusting - and i hate to see it happen


... however

"I've never heard such humbug in all my life." Boris Johnson

"Surrender Act" Boris Johnson et all

"the best way to honor the memory of Jo Cox and indeed the best way to bring this country together would be, I think, to get Brexit done." Boris Johnson

Given all of this nonsense from the Tories

" They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind." Bomber Harris

FrancieBrady

Beth Rigby reporting this.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426

GM228

Roll on midnight and we will have a clearer picture of proceedings in court tomorrow:-

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1185598817909039105?s=19

GM228

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beth Rigby reporting this.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426

Guardian reporting the opposite:-

https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1185597983859118080?s=19

It was mentioned yesterday he said there would be no extension, but Merkel signalled there would be, and from the Guardian:-

But senior EU officials said it was clear during the discussions among the leaders at a summit on Thursday that “they would grant an extension”. “Even [the French president Emmanuel] Macron in the room didn’t suggest otherwise,” the source said.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beth Rigby reporting this.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426

Could be right but it's a bit of dúirt bean liom go ndúirt bean léi.

liamtech

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Beth Rigby reporting this.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1185592504093159426

Well if it is true then the only option is to have the opposition make their move -

A substantial change would be a GNU - caretaker - telling the EU that BJ is out - we are in pending a General Election and possibly 2ndREF -

Thats it like - its now or never - if they do nothing then BJ will get 10-15 votes, get the deal through - fast track the legislation and its done

If they REALLY WANT to avoid Brexit, they have to act

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Could be right but it's a bit of dúirt bean liom go ndúirt bean léi.

liamtech wrote: »

Well if it is true then the only option is to have the opposition make their move -

A substantial change would be a GNU - caretaker - telling the EU that BJ is out - we are in pending a General Election and possibly 2ndREF -

Thats it like - its now or never - if they do nothing then BJ will get 10-15 votes, get the deal through - fast track the legislation and its done

If they REALLY WANT to avoid Brexit, they have to act

High time the EU did something out of left field to sort this.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Its kind of a bit sad though that Johnson's team are taking it as some kind of masterstroke that the eu reopened the WA. To do what? To go back to a position they were happy to accept 2 years ago and which was a major UK concession. I mean, some victory, right? And now we're back to keep no deal on table, maximum leverage angle again. When the uk learns how to negotiate in a mature, grown up fashion, maybe it can stop getting itself into these kind of messes.

Not true.

The significant bit that has changed is democratic input from Northern Ireland on it's affairs. That's a big achievement for Johnson particularly given that they were told that it wasn't under discussion.

Whether you like it or not, Johnson has succeeded in removing the backstop and has provided a permanent legislative mechanism for EU affairs for Northern Ireland. That's not a small achievement.

The Letwin amendment passing this afternoon actually helps Johnson. It gives him more time to find MPs to support his deal. It simply prevents a no deal agreement.

More and more Labour MPs are declaring support for passing it. You can now add Melanie Onn to the list of MPs I provided previously who will more than likely back the deal and see through the self-serving attitude of the Labour front bench.

Professor Moriarty

FrancieBrady wrote: »

High time the EU did something out of left field to sort this.

They could decide to grant a very short or very long extension. Despite Johnson's bluff and bluster, he doesn't want to crash out.

Joe_ Public

Being old fashioned i struggle with this idea of diplomacy by text message. Why would macron even give him that assurance.and why are they such good text buddy pals all of a sudden? Guess it would explain bojos smugness today anyway but wouldnt believe any of this until hear official word. Macron got to deal with merkel too!

Joe_ Public

theological wrote: »

Not true.

The significant bit that has changed is democratic input from Northern Ireland on it's affairs. That's a big achievement for Johnson particularly given that they were told that it wasn't under discussion.

Whether you like it or not, Johnson has succeeded in removing the backstop and has provided a permanent legislative mechanism for EU affairs for Northern Ireland. That's not a small achievement.

The Letwin amendment passing this afternoon actually helps Johnson. It gives him more time to find MPs to support his deal. It simply prevents a no deal agreement.

More and more Labour MPs are declaring support for passing it. You can now add Melanie Onn to the list of MPs I provided previously who will more than likely back the deal and see through the self-serving attitude of the Labour front bench.

Melanie Onn declared yesterday so nothing new there. Only 6 lab voted with gov today and 4 abstained so even if you included the abstentions as pro-deal you only have enough to cancel out dup. Numbers arent there and i doubt ever will be.

Also, fact remains they only got to a position they could have reached 2 years ago. Its nothing to crow about and lost their governing partners into the bargain. Thrilling victory you'd have to say!

FrancieBrady

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Being old fashioned i struggle with this idea of diplomacy by text message. Why would macron even give him that assurance.and why are they such good text buddy pals all of a sudden? Guess it would explain bojos smugness today anyway but wouldnt believe any of this until hear official word. Macron got to deal with merkel too!

The more you think about it, the more bizarre it seems. I think Beth was being sold a dummy.

theological

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Melanie Onn declared yesterday so nothing new there. Only 6 lab voted with gov today and 4 abstained so even if you included the abstentions as pro-deal you only have enough to cancel out dup. Numbers arent there and i doubt ever will be.

Also, fact remains they only got to a position they could have reached 2 years ago. Its nothing to crow about and lost their governing partners into the bargain. Thrilling victory you'd have to say!

The vote for this amendment - is not an anti-Brexit vote, it is a vote to ensure the legislation is in place before a deal.

Letwin who raised the amendment supports the deal, but wants to prevent no deal in the interim.

There are MPs who voted for this amendment, who will also vote for the deal.

liamtech

theological wrote: »

The vote for this amendment - is not an anti-Brexit vote, it is a vote to ensure the legislation is in place before a deal.

Letwin who raised the amendment supports the deal, but wants to prevent no deal in the interim.

There are MPs who voted for this amendment, who will also vote for the deal.

We are seeing momentum in the direction of brexit for sure

This is why i keep saying - this is the LAST TIME the opposition have to act - literally - this week i suspect - otherwise brexit is done

CelticRambler

theological wrote: »

Johnson has succeeded in removing the backstop and has provided a permanent legislative mechanism for EU affairs for Northern Ireland. That's not a small achievement.

Hmm. I don't believe Johnson succeeded with anything of the sort. I think Varadkar went to Cheshire and handed him an achievement, carefully prepared and packaged by the team in the EU who knew they were dealing with an incompetent fool that needed all the help he could get.

Seeing as all of us "amateurs" here on boards.ie have known for three years that an Irish Sea border was the only feasible solution to every Brexit problem, I reckon all those late night "negotiations" of the last couple of weeks were EU officials patiently explaining to the British the detail of a plan that's been sitting on a Brussels shelf for two years.

Or maybe smacking them over the head with it.