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FPL Team Value 2019/2020
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16-09-2019 12:06pm#1
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Good Post on this a number of years back, and although the names of the players have changed I think the logic still stacks up well:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=96754743&postcount=21ESSAY ALERT.......
I've not been playing this game that long but I've always liked, and been good at playing the prices changes, and I believe I have learned to do it not at a cost to my team performance points wise, and there are a couple of things I note from some of the responses above.
1. "There are far more price drops than last year"
Despite perceptions this season is shaping up very like last season in terms of there being a lot more price drops than falls. People have short memories. 2 years ago there were massive price rises, and it was possible to build up 112, 113m TV for Jan/Feb.
Last year there were less rapid rises and a far higher proportion of falls, I was tracking it in the equivalent thread last year around the end of Sept.
At 30/9/14 there had been 556 price drops and only 96 rises. Ratio Fall/Rise = 5.8/1
This year to today there have been 249 falls and 40 rises. Ratio Fall/Rise = 6.2/1
It is a fact then that there is very little difference in the rates of falls vs rises so far.
What I do notice this year is that the second rise is harder gotten, and I reckon a 0.3 rise in the GW will be rare. My gut so far is that falls are pretty much as last year, but rises will be slightly less.
2 "You wont be able to build up a 2-3m advantage so there is no point"
With rises curtailed and drops more prevalent than 2 seasons ago, yes, you wont be able to hit 113 or 114m 'gross' come Jan. But its all relative. If you have 108 and the average punter in your league has 105 its still a big advantage. Last season at 31/12 I had 108.5TV (Resale 105.3), a resale around 1m higher than most of the world class players on here, and well well above the average. FFFix quotes that the average Total Value at that time was 101.2m!! While even the top 1,000 was only 105.7m. So my TV was almost 3m above the top 1,000 in the game and the better values around here were 2-2.5m above. At the moment I'd bet that the average resale value is less than 100m.
This is not an ode to how great my value was, and not everyone will want to or agree that its worth playing with a significant eye on value up till Xmas, and thats fine. This is how I play the game, how I like to play it, not everyones cup of tea. But the above is to disprove those who write off that way of playing the game as pointless as there is no advantage to be gained. People writing off, or making out its somehow silly to look after your value (with no actual facts and figures to back it up, just stating it blankly that its pointless simply because that's not how they play the game) irks me a little. Hence I am putting the figures above on the record.
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On general points, I acknowledge that the emergence of in particular, actually pretty much solely, Kane last year as a 5m odd captain option who everyone owned, reduced the advantage of the higher TV. But there are always times when having an extra 2m over your rival will be huge in closing out the season.
This year, as is pretty evident, the pricing of most of the major premium assets is very tight. As I've pointed out elsewhere, you could have had Silva, Hazard, Aguero and Sanchez for 4m less last season. These are still player we as seeking after, and while the likes of Pedro at 9.5 or Yaya at a good value price help, I think it is fair to say that currently the ideal 4 or 5 big hitter simply cannot be accommodated into a squad. If this continues to be the case, i.e. these remain the big hitter and no aberration like Kane appears, then this could be a year where TV is very very important indeed.....but then I would say that as a TV nerd!!
Finally, if you do play with a big eye on TV then, yes, as some mentioned above you do need to avoid making decisions that are disastrous for your points returns just to chase prices. Especially with prices harder to chase. But how I look at it is I will always avoid value sucking fallers, especially those who I won't want long term. I wont get a player in who I think is crap just for price rises, but invariably the player rising is in a run of form, short term at least, and if you can tell your Diers from your Mahrezs you cant go to far wrong, as long as you are flexible and know when to get rid.
The top line Total Value means nothing, its resale that counts, and if you remember that you'll never keep a player you want rid of cause you've value tied up in them. This is something I can safely say I never do. Sure, you'll want to be sure you do want rid, and wont want back in 2 weeks, before you sell somebody who has risen a million, but if they need to go then the 0.5 'tax' was never yours in the first place.
Thats just some thoughts to (a) get off my chest and (b) which may be helpful and (c) you may totally disagree with, and if you do I (in the nicest possible way) don't care in the slightest.
The Mass has ended, you may go in peace......0 -
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