Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

jm08

Just watched Jeffrey Donaldson interview on Primetime. He seemed to be approving enough about the all-Ireland agric. part. Delighted with the support from Bertie and Michael Martin. His big worry though was access and tariffs to the GB market.


From what I got from the interview is that he realises the game is up and is now holding out for some sort of sweetner from Boris (such as making NI a tariff free zone). They could probably sell it as a kick in the balls to the ROI as NI would have a competitive edge.


I heard Newton Emerson earlier on rte radio this evening. He commented that Bertie's idea of giving the DUP a say because of the pariety of esteem issue would force them back into Stormont where they would have to back down on an Irish language Act, same sex marriage and abortion. Pondered whether they could swallow all that backing down. Maybe Bertie is a genius at deal making after all!

An Ciarraioch

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1171532688991256577

listermint

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Sorry if I missed it in all the updates on this thread but what is your solution to the Brexit conundrum?

Remain.

Like the absolute spanners in the DUP should have been campaigning for from the start.

Its almost like they're all idiots who don't know their own dup history.
Oh wait....



They never learn. Torys always up to something.

hotmail.com

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Daily Telegraph reporting tomorrow that Boris Johnson want regulatory border in the Irish sea.

He has offered DUP a veto on future changes to the arrangement (so long as they can't unilaterally leave it, this could be acceptable to the EU)

He has also offered to build a bridge.

The bridge proposal is a non runner. I doubt the DUP will fall for that.

Kermit.de.frog

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Unfortunately, once you click into it through the Beeb's Tomorrow's Papers Today, the full story moves on to trusted traders and alternative arrangements:

Yup, Peter Foster of the Telegraph saying it is a load nonsense and EU won't agree to it.

Professor Moriarty

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1171532688991256577

The seat projections should give Johnson pause for thought. Should but won't.

J Mysterio

This very interesting article was posted in the other thread, and so sharing it here also.

Ash.J.Williams wrote: »

this is interesting
https://www.ft.com/content/1955d464-c926-11e9-af46-b09e8bfe60c0?segmentId=09cf3415-e461-2c4a-a8cc-80acc4846679

the paragraph where cameron tried to out muscle the EU reminds of how we got to this point!

It is paywalled if you click the link, but google the article title and you can access it no problem.

prawnsambo

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1171532688991256577

That poll looks quite like what the Tory ex-spad who was on the TV the other day was saying their own research was producing. I think he was saying 287 seats for the Tories. Interesting.

Also worth looking at the supplementary poll questions on that thread. It's mind boggling how confused they seem to be.

hotmail.com

So the meeting today is more significant than the official statements are making it out to be. And Boris is seeking a version of a Northern Ireland backstop.

J Mysterio

prawnsambo wrote: »

Also worth looking at the supplementary poll questions on that thread. It's mind boggling how confused they seem to be.

Jeepers, yes, massively confused. I think the key thing to remember is most arent quite as obsessive about Brexit as some of us are. They just dont follow it so closely and are not au fait with the detail.

Tell me how

It's from the Sun, so, you know.

NIGEL Farage has spelt out his price for an election deal with the Tories - to give his Brexit Party a free run in 80 to 90 parliamentary seats.

In exchange, the anti-EU party chief has told No10 he would not to field any candidates against sitting Tory MPs and in the Conservatives’ target seats.

Also, I listened to a bit of Farage's show this morning and he used the phrase 'Do we need to drain the swamp completely and start again?'. Straight from the you know who playbook.

Professor Moriarty

prawnsambo wrote: »

That poll looks quite like what the Tory ex-spad who was on the TV the other day was saying their own research was producing. I think he was saying 287 seats for the Tories. Interesting.

Also worth looking at the supplementary poll questions on that thread. It's mind boggling how confused they seem to be.

If you call Labour a Remain party, then those seat projections would translate into:
Remain: 348
Leave: 294

Spanish Eyes

On the Island of Ireland N and S I reckon most would breathe a big sigh of relief if an all Island of Ireland solution could be found now.

The so called Mainland don't give a F about NI anyway and would be glad to see that monkey off their backs.

But I wonder how it would work out frankly, without any trouble now.

ArmaniJeanss

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Daily Telegraph reporting tomorrow that Boris Johnson want regulatory border in the Irish sea.

He has offered DUP a veto on future changes to the arrangement (so long as they can't unilaterally leave it, this could be acceptable to the EU)

He has also offered to build a bridge.

'Devil is in the detail, but a veto on changes seems potentially problematic to me.
Some EU modifications in standards seems like the sort of thing which could be labelled as a change.
Other ascension countries joining the EU, would Stormont theoretically have a veto on that?

We can never allow a situation where the ROI is not 100% aligned to the rest of the EU, therefore NI must remain aligned to us so what purpose does this veto serve?

Itssoeasy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

On the Island of Ireland N and S I reckon most would breathe a big sigh of relief if an all Island of Ireland solution could be found now.

The so called Mainland don't give a F about NI anyway and would be glad to see that monkey off their backs.

But I wonder how it would work out frankly, without any trouble now.

Well I wouldn't say the "mainland" doesn't give a F about NI, but I think it's clear the DUP away over estimate how much any U.K. Government will go to bat for them.

hotmail.com

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

On the Island of Ireland N and S I reckon most would breathe a big sigh of relief if an all Island of Ireland solution could be found now.

The so called Mainland don't give a F about NI anyway and would be glad to see that monkey off their backs.

But I wonder how it would work out frankly, without any trouble now.

Well I wouldn't say the "mainland" doesn't give a F about NI, but I think it's clear the DUP away over estimate how much any U.K. Government will go to bat for them.

London media and British people in general, are looking forward to the election so they no longer have to talk about the DUP.

Itssoeasy

hotmail.com wrote: »

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

On the Island of Ireland N and S I reckon most would breathe a big sigh of relief if an all Island of Ireland solution could be found now.

The so called Mainland don't give a F about NI anyway and would be glad to see that monkey off their backs.

But I wonder how it would work out frankly, without any trouble now.

Well I wouldn't say the "mainland" doesn't give a F about NI, but I think it's clear the DUP away over estimate how much any U.K. Government will go to bat for them.

London media and British people in general, are looking forward to the election so they no longer have to talk about the DUP.

That's a fair comment. I can remember when the media were learning about the DUP after the last election. The journey of realisation to exactly what the prime minister had gotten the uk into by getting into bed with the DUP was fascinating to watch from an Irish standpoint.

Akrasia

The Irish Times are reporting that Johnson has rejected the NI only backstop....

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142?mode=amp

Water John

The polls have informed the change of tack by Johnson in the last two days. He's attempting to swing back to the centre as he realises there is no more votes to be won on the far right. Without the centre, he'll never get an overall majority in a GE.

mcmoustache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

If you call Labour a Remain party, then those seat projections would translate into:
Remain: 348
Leave: 294

If that sort of polling pans out into seats, then that throws another spanner into the clown show. I can see Labour being onboard with some kind of second referendum to avoid a no-deal scenario.


This is like a sudden death penalty shootout where each team has taken 11 kicks with no end in sight. While part of me wants this resolved as quickly as possible, I'm still fascinated by the drama. And it's hard to see an end to it.

WomanSkirtFan8

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

On the Island of Ireland N and S I reckon most would breathe a big sigh of relief if an all Island of Ireland solution could be found now.

The so called Mainland don't give a F about NI anyway and would be glad to see that monkey off their backs.

Absolute true and they'd happily throw them under a train at the first opportunity they get. :cool:

Spanish Eyes

Akrasia wrote: »

The Irish Times are reporting that Johnson has rejected the NI only backstop....

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142?mode=amp

That means there will be one. He is a known liar.

But who knows? Just my opinion of the man's tactics.

Professor Moriarty

mcmoustache wrote: »

If that sort of polling pans out into seats, then that throws another spanner into the clown show. I can see Labour being onboard with some kind of second referendum to avoid a no-deal scenario.


This is like a sudden death penalty shootout where each team has taken 11 kicks with no end in sight. While part of me wants this resolved as quickly as possible, I'm still fascinated by the drama. And it's hard to see an end to it.

There's a slight fly in the ointment. That opinion poll assumes that the Brexit Party will field candidates in opposition to the Tories. If Johnson and Farage make a Faustian pact then the electoral landscape changes dramatically.

Mr.Nice Guy

Akrasia wrote: »

The Irish Times are reporting that Johnson has rejected the NI only backstop....

He also told them at a dinner in Belfast last November he rejected a UK-wide backstop and that it needed to be "junked" before then going on to vote for it. He has to keep them on side for now in case the arithmetic isn't there for him after an election. As long as he's not coming out with any "I'd rather die in a ditch" type soundbites I'd say it's still a distinct possibility - assuming he gets the votes he needs without them.

Akrasia

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

He also told them at a dinner in Belfast last November he rejected a UK-wide backstop and that it needed to be "junked" before then going on to vote for it. He has to keep them on side for now in case the arithmetic isn't there for him after an election. As long as he's not coming out with any "I'd rather die in a ditch" type soundbites I'd say it's still a distinct possibility - assuming he gets the votes he needs without them.

By saying this now, it indicates that he has no intention of reaching a pre fabricated deal with the EU.

hill16bhoy

Leroy42 wrote: »

That is the price for given their over to the Tory party.





It really was. Ireland tried to warn them, Blair, the EU. There was plenty of people trying to warn the UK but they opted to dismiss it as project fear. But it was clear to everyone that it was going to cause an issue.

A hard border was not voted on.

The referendum was a simple in/out of the EU question.

Literally nothing else was voted on.

Not the single market, not the customs union, not trade deals, not the NHS, not deregulation, not immigration.

That's how Leave won and why Leave campaigners abandoned the project of coming up with a realistic Brexit proposal some years before 2016, and were as vague as they possibly could be and promised the sun, the moon and the stars to everybody.

mcmoustache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's a slight fly in the ointment. That opinion poll assumes that the Brexit Party will field candidates in opposition to the Tories. If Johnson and Farage make a Faustian pact then the electoral landscape changes dramatically.

More spanners in the works. More clowns. It's really not easy to predict what's going to happen, is it?

hill16bhoy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Trump's wall and Johnson's bridge. Equally ludicrous. Actually, that's not fair. Trump's wall would be cheaper to build.

Has Johnson yet thought of a wall in the sea?

Only a matter of time, I'd say.

Professor Moriarty

mcmoustache wrote: »

More spanners in the works. More clowns. It's really not easy to predict what's going to happen, is it?

It won't be pretty, that's the only certainty.

hill16bhoy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There's a slight fly in the ointment. That opinion poll assumes that the Brexit Party will field candidates in opposition to the Tories. If Johnson and Farage make a Faustian pact then the electoral landscape changes dramatically.

Most if not all of the Tories' 13 seats in Scotland will be gone.

The Tories will struggle badly to win back a lot of the rebels' seats.

They'll struggle to hold any urban seats.

That's a lot of midlands and northern marginals they have to gain just to stand still.