Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

Itssoeasy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

BBC reporting that Boris Johnson is currently presenting the DUP with it's Brexit "options".

All the options in no particular order are:

1. Closer integration with the south
2. Closer integration with the south
3. Closer integration with the south

The DUP votes are completely irrelevant to the Tories now and Boris needs a quick deal.

One way or another the DUP has damaged NI's position in the UK. It's just a question of "to what extent?"

I think they have. I'm sure prior to the DUP having such a role in wider U.K. politics they were seen as a small party who sits in the commons but was no more than that.

J Mysterio

hill16bhoy wrote: »

You're completely proving my points here.

Total dismissal of any unionist concerns, and schadenfreude at the DUP.

That is nothing more than the other side of the DUP's own coin.

That sort of divisive rhetoric isn't going to do any good for anybody.

Ah, jesus christ. Sorry your feelings are hurt and all that but, you know, Brexit is a fairly serious (and foolhardy) undertaking. Sorry of course also that the DUP have their little feelings hurt.

You must be very naive. We didnt ask for this sh1te, and we are trying to find the least damaging way out of it. No one is going to come out of this sh1tstorm happier than before.

Did the UK consider Irelands feelings in this? No, they did not. Despite the fact it will have huge implications for us, and not just NI. Give over.

fash

hill16bhoy wrote: »

You're completely proving my points here.

Total dismissal of any unionist concerns, and schadenfreude at the DUP.

That is nothing more than the other side of the DUP's own coin.

That sort of divisive rhetoric isn't going to do any good for anybody.

I fully acknowledge that a sea border is a change to the status quo. However aside from a no brexit or a soft brexit, there is no more minimal impact on the status quo.
Furthermore, and to repeat- since there is only a binary choice, who should "suffer" the consequences of a vote to change the status quo and deliberate policy to establish a border: The people who have deliberately and methodically pushed for it or those who sought to prevent it?

Those are the only choices that are left. And those are the only choices that are left because of the DUP. Now choose.

Capt'n Midnight

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://www.channel4.com/news/exclusive-johnson-considering-building-bridge-between-scotland-and-northern-ireland

Boris still looking at the bridge to NI idea.

Even if this wasn't total fantasy, border checks would still be need at the bridge!

There are some difficulties.
An estimated 1.17 million tonnes of conventional weapons and chemical weapons have been deposited in Beaufort Dyke. And some of the old "glow in the dark" too.

But the cost would be insane for little benefit.


Just a reminder about the money pit that is HS2 , now delayed for the duration, 5 years or so

HS2 railway to be delayed by up to five years

HS2's total cost has also risen from £62bn to between £81bn and £88bn, but Mr Shapps said he was keeping an "open mind" about the project's future.

Actually it's

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/it-is-time-to-put-the-brakes-on-the-costly-hs2-railway-bvwwbgl8g - by david davis Esq

In 2010, we were told HS2 would come at a cost of £32.7 billion. Since then we have seen costs rise and rise to the current estimate of £56 billion.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/hs2-high-speed-railway-most-expensive-world-403-million-mile-michael-byng-a7843481.html

Michael Byng, who created the method used by Network Rail to cost its projects, made the estimates for DfT and said the line would cost double the official figure and 15 times more than the cost per mile of the TGV in France,
...
The scheme could cost up to £104bn in total, including extensions to Manchester and Leeds,

http://viz.co.uk/2016/02/16/london/

Infini

hill16bhoy wrote: »

You're completely proving my points here.

Total dismissal of any unionist concerns, and schadenfreude at the DUP.

That is nothing more than the other side of the DUP's own coin.

That sort of divisive rhetoric isn't going to do any good for anybody.

Look the simple truth is that Brexit is the real enemy here. It's a joke that this has been allowed to go on at all, the vote was poisoned both with cheating by the leave campaign and dark money (Russian Troll Federation meddling too) and the vote was advisory. They were under no legal prerogative to do so and if the vote had been binding then the simple truth is none of this would be happening because the whole thing would have been ruled illegitimate and nullified in a court of law.

As for the whole Nationalist or Unionist viewpoint the simple truth is Brexit is what reactivates the identity issue as it's forcing people to choose when especially when thing's should have been left well enough alone. In addition when it comes down to it as much as the unionist side might feel it's unfair lets face it enforcing at seaports and airports is the only practical and workable solution as there's only a limited number of them. There's over 300 land crossing's which is not only impractical but nigh impossible to properly reinforce. Ultimately there will be a backstop and NI will end up being treated separately because it will be part of any agreement the UK wishes to make and it's geographically separate from Britain because of the sea. That's the price of getting into bed with ideological idiots and tools who dont give a damn about you (Conservatives).

Ultimately the whole backstop thing is purely down to regulating goods plain and simple. Unionists will still be able to travel without issue between NI and Britain I've yet to even hear a PRACTICAL argument why the backstop is a bad thing when all it's designed to do is keep subquality crap out of Ireland and the Single Market. It would be nice if there could be a real reason why exactly this is bad for unionists when there's no practical drawbacks here.

Ultimately if your of a unionist viewpoint here then the simple truth is blame the DUP and conservative's they created this mess, they own it and they're both unfit for power at all they screw over everyone to satisfy themselves and dont give a toss about how anyone else feels. The backstop is also necessary for us because to be honest we weren't consulted or given a choice on this side of the fence and to be honest why should we have to put up border's because of Britains refusal to live up to it's responsibilities or cut ourselves off from the EU single market because the conservatives want their own way.

It's like everything else about Brexit: Brexiteers thinking they can dictate the agenda and get whatever they want or demand. They think they're in control, sadly they forgot the first thing in all of this: When it's the UK vs the EU Our number are bigger than their's and the bigger one ultimately get's their way no matter what.

prawnsambo

fash wrote: »

I fully acknowledge that a sea border is a change to the status quo. However aside from a no brexit or a soft brexit, there is no more minimal impact on the status quo.
Furthermore, and to repeat- since there is only a binary choice, who should "suffer" the consequences of a vote to change the status quo and deliberate policy to establish a border: The people who have deliberately and methodically pushed for it or those who sought to prevent it?

Those are the only choices that are left. And those are the only choices that are left because of the DUP. Now choose.

Except that it actually isn't. It's been there for a long, long time. And has had customs posts and every whole thing for a long time too. And nobody will actually notice that anything has changed. Because to all intents and purposes it won't.

nc6000

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142

McMurphy

hill16bhoy wrote: »

You're completely proving my points here.

Total dismissal of any unionist concerns, and schadenfreude at the DUP.

That is nothing more than the other side of the DUP's own coin.

That sort of divisive rhetoric isn't going to do any good for anybody.

The DUP - fully aware of the repercussions brexit would bring on the island of Ireland (deal or no deal) actively campaigned for brexit.

When the referendum passed - they pushed as hard as they could for as hard a brexit as they could achieve.

They were too short sighted to see the likely problems a hard brexit (and God love them if there's a no deal brexit) could bring to the six counties, indeed the messier it was up there, the closer a reality of a united Ireland would be.

It seems that it's about to go all pearshaped on them now and they allowed themselves to be the Tories mudwing, as many predicted it would.

They had the chance to advocate for either no brexit, or at least for a softest of soft brexits, which would prob ensure their place in the union indefinitely.

They chose to go the other way (as many of us thought they would)

I've no sympathy for them tbh, they can reap what they have sowed.

fly_agaric

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Hope I'm not tempting fate here, but let's say an Irish Sea border was the compromise.

All good, Ireland and NI continue as before.

But two things..... Scotland will not be impressed, and perhaps Loyalist terrorists will awaken from their GFA slumber, oh dear.

What's good for one side is not necessarily good for the other. That's NI for you. (and maybe Scotland too, not the terrorism thing, but being out of EU whilst NI has all the optical and practical benefits of being in).

Ireland may have renounced any claim on the territory but we have alot of citizens in NI who are going to be harmed by Brexit + we have a land border with the UK due to NI that becomes a new external frontier of the union post Brexit.

We are in the EU, so the EU is looking out for our interests post Brexit, not Scotlands'.
Beliefs that Scotland is somehow being unfairly treated if NI gets a special deal are fairly ridiculous IMO.

As for loyalists in NI being upset, DUP has decided to stir the pot by backing Brexit and then using their power in the UK government to push for hardest Brexit possible because they are blinded by hatred. Everything for them is a zero sum game of putting one over on the old enemy ("taigs", "Southern" Ireland etc). If it blows back on them and they are hoist with their own petard it is very hard to feel any sympathy at all for them or their voters.

Infini

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142

The laughable thing is they still think they have any control in all of this. They had their chance and they blew it and now things will ultimately be decided without them or with consultation with all other parties in NI EXCEPT them.

McMurphy

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142

A week ago Boris Johnson was proclaiming from the high heavens that he didn't want an election.

A few days ago they were running ads with photoshopped Corbyn/Chicken photos trying to goad Corbyn into gifting him one.

I wouldn't believe Boris or the Tories if they told me the day after tomorrow was Thursday tbh.

FrancieBrady

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142

We'll lend Arlene and the DUP the 'Perfidious Albion' banners when Boris opts for the NI backstop.

nc6000

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We'll lend Arlene and the DUP the 'Perfidious Albion' banners when Boris opts for the NI backstop.

Not sure what Boris told them but they look delighted with it.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We'll lend Arlene and the DUP the 'Perfidious Albion' banners when Boris opts for the NI backstop.

They can read Carson's words on the Tories and realise that in fact, yes, history does repeat itself.

prawnsambo

nc6000 wrote: »

Not sure what Boris told them but they look delighted with it.

He said "Trust me".

weemcd

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

A week ago Boris Johnson was proclaiming from the high heavens that he didn't want an election.

A few days ago they were running ads with photoshopped Corbyn/Chicken photos trying to goad Corbyn into gifting him one.

I wouldn't believe Boris or the Tories if they told me the day after tomorrow was Thursday tbh.

My thoughts exactly, the DUP (like Johnson) have drastically and repeatedly overplayed their hand. Blind dogma and a sycophantic desire to scream from the rooftops about how British they are has now backfired on them. They enjoyed their brief spell in politics when the Tories had to humour them under May, but the "confidence and supply" agreement neither inspired confidence nor supplied much of anything, and is now dead. Good riddance.

If Johnson somehow manages to make the NI only backstop fly in parliament, it's happening.

Joe_ Public

This NI backstop only business looks a bit suspicious if i'm honest. If there's any basis to it, the question then is whether it's a product of desperation on Johnson's part to get something done and remain in power or simply some more subterfuge on Cummings' part.

Presumably, the PM making a NI backstop only arrangement and agreeing some sort of deal on the back of it means he will be saved from having to ask for the extension at the EU summit on 17/18 Oct. Does that mean the Benn Act is then made redundant? What happens then if amended WAB goes back before parliament and fails to pass again, as you could surmise, may well suit Johnson as it could potentially mean a no deal is then inevitable. I know that's highly conspiratorial, but seems to me we are living in highly conspiratorial times. Can he be trusted whatever strategy he comes back with?

J Mysterio

One thing is for sure: if the UK make a mess of this and have a crashout No Deal, not only will the UK descend into chaos, but NI will explode.

Should they bring this about, they will no longer be our 'friend' or 'partner'.

It's a very, very serious situation and it could quite easily go badly, badly wrong.

UK will also be in a very bad situation when they eventually seek to start trade negotiations with the EU. Rather than a mild mannered and pleasant interlocutor in Barnier, they will be looking at a very angry Big Phil Hogan. Maybe then they will finally understand that Ireland and the EU are one, and can't be picked apart.

jm08

hill16bhoy wrote: »

They feel it does, and that's all that matters - so it does matter. They feel they're being chucked under the bus by the rest of UK, that their status is being changed without their consent. That's an entirely fair point of view.

It's not for me or you to tell people with a British identity in NI how that identity or their right to a British identity is being affected.

Others so inclined could ask, how would a hard border weaken people in NI's right to an Irish identity? As they'd still have the right to an Irish passport and all that - devil's advocate argument.

The answer is, those who have an Irish identity in NI pretty much universally feel it would weaken their right to one - I'd certainly feel that way too - and that's all there is to it, really.

Everything you say about the DUP "not wanting to be truly British" could equally be aimed at any party in NI, Scotland or Wales.

What is "truly British", anyway?

The UK is a nation state made up of constituent parts in which three of those parts voted for autonomy over certain areas.

Erecting a hard border in the sea between NI and Britain was never voted on.

I absolutely accept votes for Corsican separatist parties as a valid expression of pro-Corsican independence sentiment - but that's not what I was asking for - I asked for a poll which showed the majority of Corsicans are in favour of independence, or in favour of erecting barriers to trading with France.

I haven't seen any such poll.

The issue with the Border is that it will divide and disrupt the mainly nationalist population who live on the border (north and south). Most the unionist population (particularly those in the very North East) will not know the difference as there will still be free movement of people, no one is going to check them going over to GB or coming back. How is this affecting their identity? As well as that, business in NI want the backstop and presumably there are unionists involved in business who are supporting the backstop as the best solution.

J Mysterio

jm08 wrote: »

The issue with the Border is that it will divide and disrupt the mainly nationalist population who live on the border (north and south). Most the unionist population (particularly those in the very North East) will not know the difference as there will still be free movement of people, no one is going to check them going over to GB or coming back. How is this affecting their identity? As well as that, business in NI want the backstop and presumably there are unionists involved in business who are supporting the backstop as the best solution.

A border in ND wrecks and impoverishes the Unionist farming community also, and whatever other business.

The NI farming, trade union and business associations are all strongly anti-Brexit. The DUP are on a solo run on this.

storker

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

It should be obvious by now to anyone familiar with Boris's form that a reassurance from him is no reassurance at all.

Spanish Eyes

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

A week ago Boris Johnson was proclaiming from the high heavens that he didn't want an election.

A few days ago they were running ads with photoshopped Corbyn/Chicken photos trying to goad Corbyn into gifting him one.

I wouldn't believe Boris or the Tories if they told me the day after tomorrow was Thursday tbh.

Indeed. Liars the lot of them.

That's why I think when Johnson said no way will we introduce a NI only backstop or words to that effect, you kind of get the feeling that it's actually going to happen. Johnson has lied so much that the truth is very hard to find from his mouth now.

But like most others I don't know, no one does, we are just speculating and shooting the breeze here now that there will be a five week hiatus.

Kermit.de.frog

Daily Telegraph reporting tomorrow that Boris Johnson want regulatory border in the Irish sea.

He has offered DUP a veto on future changes to the arrangement (so long as they can't unilaterally leave it, this could be acceptable to the EU)

He has also offered to build a bridge.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Daily Telegraph reporting tomorrow that Boris Johnson want regulatory border in the Irish sea.

He has offered DUP a veto on future changes to the arrangement (so long as they can't unilaterally leave it, this could be acceptable to the EU)

He has also offered to build a bridge.

One political party has a veto on it?
How would that fly?

J Mysterio

To be honest - all things considered - I am starting to think Brexit may not happen at all at this point. I think Boris has actually lessened the chances of it happening.

His disgraceful carry on has finally united the other parties in Parliament and has turned swathes of the public against him and his antics. Polls have shown the majority are against this prorogation.

Ridiculous to claim the EU is undemocratic and full of unelected bureaucrats when he is now PM (elected by Tories only), he has shut down Parliament, has threatened to ignore the law and is following the advice of... an unelected bureaucrat. An unelected bureaucrat who was found in contempt of parliament and is likely guilty of breaking the law in the administration of the Leave campaign.

I think there will be another extension and the upcoming election might finally see Corbyn as Prime Minister.

Kermit.de.frog

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One political party has a veto on it?
How would that fly?

That may be just the way it's reported. I'd say he means Stormont.

Kermit.de.frog

From the Telegraph but paywalled

Boris Johnson is considering plans for a regulatory border in the Irish Sea as he seeks a new Brexit “divorce” deal with the EU.

The Prime Minister wants an all-Ireland zone for checks on most goods crossing between the north and south of the island as part of a deal that would remove the need for a Northern Irish backstop.

The idea, which does not cover tariffs on goods, was discussed with the DUP yesterday during talks in Downing Street, at which Mr Johnson also 
 offered a “Stormont lock” to ensure Northern Ireland would be able to veto any future changes to the arrangement.

It also emerged on Tuesday that Mr Johnson had ordered detailed feasibility studies on the possibility of a bridge between...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/irish-backstop-could-boris-johnson-have-answer-solve-brexit/

The key word there is future changes. - so they would not have a say on it actually coming in to force.

lawred2

The bridge is back baby

Itssoeasy

I’ve just watched the video of the actual prorogation happening in the House of Lords last night and the speaker John bercow waking back into a half empty commons chamber. Firstly he didn’t sit in the speakers chair but stood in front of it. Now, I’ve never seen a prorogation happen before so have no idea if the speaker walking back into the chamber is part of it, but did anyone else find it a very strange atmosphere ? I know it was in the middle of the night, but it was a very depressing scene.

Professor Moriarty

Trump's wall and Johnson's bridge. Equally ludicrous. Actually, that's not fair. Trump's wall would be cheaper to build.