Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

fly_agaric

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Hope I'm not tempting fate here, but let's say an Irish Sea border was the compromise.

All good, Ireland and NI continue as before.

But two things..... Scotland will not be impressed, and perhaps Loyalist terrorists will awaken from their GFA slumber, oh dear.

What's good for one side is not necessarily good for the other. That's NI for you. (and maybe Scotland too, not the terrorism thing, but being out of EU whilst NI has all the optical and practical benefits of being in).

Ireland may have renounced any claim on the territory but we have alot of citizens in NI who are going to be harmed by Brexit + we have a land border with the UK due to NI that becomes a new external frontier of the union post Brexit.

We are in the EU, so the EU is looking out for our interests post Brexit, not Scotlands'.
Beliefs that Scotland is somehow being unfairly treated if NI gets a special deal are fairly ridiculous IMO.

As for loyalists in NI being upset, DUP has decided to stir the pot by backing Brexit and then using their power in the UK government to push for hardest Brexit possible because they are blinded by hatred. Everything for them is a zero sum game of putting one over on the old enemy ("taigs", "Southern" Ireland etc). If it blows back on them and they are hoist with their own petard it is very hard to feel any sympathy at all for them or their voters.

Infini

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142

The laughable thing is they still think they have any control in all of this. They had their chance and they blew it and now things will ultimately be decided without them or with consultation with all other parties in NI EXCEPT them.

McMurphy

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142

A week ago Boris Johnson was proclaiming from the high heavens that he didn't want an election.

A few days ago they were running ads with photoshopped Corbyn/Chicken photos trying to goad Corbyn into gifting him one.

I wouldn't believe Boris or the Tories if they told me the day after tomorrow was Thursday tbh.

FrancieBrady

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/dup-says-johnson-confirmed-rejection-of-northern-ireland-only-backstop-1.4014142

We'll lend Arlene and the DUP the 'Perfidious Albion' banners when Boris opts for the NI backstop.

nc6000

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We'll lend Arlene and the DUP the 'Perfidious Albion' banners when Boris opts for the NI backstop.

Not sure what Boris told them but they look delighted with it.

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

We'll lend Arlene and the DUP the 'Perfidious Albion' banners when Boris opts for the NI backstop.

They can read Carson's words on the Tories and realise that in fact, yes, history does repeat itself.

prawnsambo

nc6000 wrote: »

Not sure what Boris told them but they look delighted with it.

He said "Trust me".

weemcd

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

A week ago Boris Johnson was proclaiming from the high heavens that he didn't want an election.

A few days ago they were running ads with photoshopped Corbyn/Chicken photos trying to goad Corbyn into gifting him one.

I wouldn't believe Boris or the Tories if they told me the day after tomorrow was Thursday tbh.

My thoughts exactly, the DUP (like Johnson) have drastically and repeatedly overplayed their hand. Blind dogma and a sycophantic desire to scream from the rooftops about how British they are has now backfired on them. They enjoyed their brief spell in politics when the Tories had to humour them under May, but the "confidence and supply" agreement neither inspired confidence nor supplied much of anything, and is now dead. Good riddance.

If Johnson somehow manages to make the NI only backstop fly in parliament, it's happening.

Joe_ Public

This NI backstop only business looks a bit suspicious if i'm honest. If there's any basis to it, the question then is whether it's a product of desperation on Johnson's part to get something done and remain in power or simply some more subterfuge on Cummings' part.

Presumably, the PM making a NI backstop only arrangement and agreeing some sort of deal on the back of it means he will be saved from having to ask for the extension at the EU summit on 17/18 Oct. Does that mean the Benn Act is then made redundant? What happens then if amended WAB goes back before parliament and fails to pass again, as you could surmise, may well suit Johnson as it could potentially mean a no deal is then inevitable. I know that's highly conspiratorial, but seems to me we are living in highly conspiratorial times. Can he be trusted whatever strategy he comes back with?

J Mysterio

One thing is for sure: if the UK make a mess of this and have a crashout No Deal, not only will the UK descend into chaos, but NI will explode.

Should they bring this about, they will no longer be our 'friend' or 'partner'.

It's a very, very serious situation and it could quite easily go badly, badly wrong.

UK will also be in a very bad situation when they eventually seek to start trade negotiations with the EU. Rather than a mild mannered and pleasant interlocutor in Barnier, they will be looking at a very angry Big Phil Hogan. Maybe then they will finally understand that Ireland and the EU are one, and can't be picked apart.

jm08

hill16bhoy wrote: »

They feel it does, and that's all that matters - so it does matter. They feel they're being chucked under the bus by the rest of UK, that their status is being changed without their consent. That's an entirely fair point of view.

It's not for me or you to tell people with a British identity in NI how that identity or their right to a British identity is being affected.

Others so inclined could ask, how would a hard border weaken people in NI's right to an Irish identity? As they'd still have the right to an Irish passport and all that - devil's advocate argument.

The answer is, those who have an Irish identity in NI pretty much universally feel it would weaken their right to one - I'd certainly feel that way too - and that's all there is to it, really.

Everything you say about the DUP "not wanting to be truly British" could equally be aimed at any party in NI, Scotland or Wales.

What is "truly British", anyway?

The UK is a nation state made up of constituent parts in which three of those parts voted for autonomy over certain areas.

Erecting a hard border in the sea between NI and Britain was never voted on.

I absolutely accept votes for Corsican separatist parties as a valid expression of pro-Corsican independence sentiment - but that's not what I was asking for - I asked for a poll which showed the majority of Corsicans are in favour of independence, or in favour of erecting barriers to trading with France.

I haven't seen any such poll.

The issue with the Border is that it will divide and disrupt the mainly nationalist population who live on the border (north and south). Most the unionist population (particularly those in the very North East) will not know the difference as there will still be free movement of people, no one is going to check them going over to GB or coming back. How is this affecting their identity? As well as that, business in NI want the backstop and presumably there are unionists involved in business who are supporting the backstop as the best solution.

J Mysterio

jm08 wrote: »

The issue with the Border is that it will divide and disrupt the mainly nationalist population who live on the border (north and south). Most the unionist population (particularly those in the very North East) will not know the difference as there will still be free movement of people, no one is going to check them going over to GB or coming back. How is this affecting their identity? As well as that, business in NI want the backstop and presumably there are unionists involved in business who are supporting the backstop as the best solution.

A border in ND wrecks and impoverishes the Unionist farming community also, and whatever other business.

The NI farming, trade union and business associations are all strongly anti-Brexit. The DUP are on a solo run on this.

storker

nc6000 wrote: »

Well the idea of an NI only backstop didn't last very long :

"The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has rejected proposals for a Northern Ireland-only backstop amid speculation at Westminster that Boris Johnson is considering an all-Ireland solution for the Border after Brexit. The party’s leader Arlene Foster said after a meeting with the British prime minister on Tuesday evening he had reassured her and deputy leader Nigel Dodds that he would not accept a withdrawal deal that included such a measure."

It should be obvious by now to anyone familiar with Boris's form that a reassurance from him is no reassurance at all.

Spanish Eyes

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

A week ago Boris Johnson was proclaiming from the high heavens that he didn't want an election.

A few days ago they were running ads with photoshopped Corbyn/Chicken photos trying to goad Corbyn into gifting him one.

I wouldn't believe Boris or the Tories if they told me the day after tomorrow was Thursday tbh.

Indeed. Liars the lot of them.

That's why I think when Johnson said no way will we introduce a NI only backstop or words to that effect, you kind of get the feeling that it's actually going to happen. Johnson has lied so much that the truth is very hard to find from his mouth now.

But like most others I don't know, no one does, we are just speculating and shooting the breeze here now that there will be a five week hiatus.

Kermit.de.frog

Daily Telegraph reporting tomorrow that Boris Johnson want regulatory border in the Irish sea.

He has offered DUP a veto on future changes to the arrangement (so long as they can't unilaterally leave it, this could be acceptable to the EU)

He has also offered to build a bridge.

FrancieBrady

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Daily Telegraph reporting tomorrow that Boris Johnson want regulatory border in the Irish sea.

He has offered DUP a veto on future changes to the arrangement (so long as they can't unilaterally leave it, this could be acceptable to the EU)

He has also offered to build a bridge.

One political party has a veto on it?
How would that fly?

J Mysterio

To be honest - all things considered - I am starting to think Brexit may not happen at all at this point. I think Boris has actually lessened the chances of it happening.

His disgraceful carry on has finally united the other parties in Parliament and has turned swathes of the public against him and his antics. Polls have shown the majority are against this prorogation.

Ridiculous to claim the EU is undemocratic and full of unelected bureaucrats when he is now PM (elected by Tories only), he has shut down Parliament, has threatened to ignore the law and is following the advice of... an unelected bureaucrat. An unelected bureaucrat who was found in contempt of parliament and is likely guilty of breaking the law in the administration of the Leave campaign.

I think there will be another extension and the upcoming election might finally see Corbyn as Prime Minister.

Kermit.de.frog

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One political party has a veto on it?
How would that fly?

That may be just the way it's reported. I'd say he means Stormont.

Kermit.de.frog

From the Telegraph but paywalled

Boris Johnson is considering plans for a regulatory border in the Irish Sea as he seeks a new Brexit “divorce” deal with the EU.

The Prime Minister wants an all-Ireland zone for checks on most goods crossing between the north and south of the island as part of a deal that would remove the need for a Northern Irish backstop.

The idea, which does not cover tariffs on goods, was discussed with the DUP yesterday during talks in Downing Street, at which Mr Johnson also 
 offered a “Stormont lock” to ensure Northern Ireland would be able to veto any future changes to the arrangement.

It also emerged on Tuesday that Mr Johnson had ordered detailed feasibility studies on the possibility of a bridge between...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/irish-backstop-could-boris-johnson-have-answer-solve-brexit/

The key word there is future changes. - so they would not have a say on it actually coming in to force.

lawred2

The bridge is back baby

Itssoeasy

I’ve just watched the video of the actual prorogation happening in the House of Lords last night and the speaker John bercow waking back into a half empty commons chamber. Firstly he didn’t sit in the speakers chair but stood in front of it. Now, I’ve never seen a prorogation happen before so have no idea if the speaker walking back into the chamber is part of it, but did anyone else find it a very strange atmosphere ? I know it was in the middle of the night, but it was a very depressing scene.

Professor Moriarty

Trump's wall and Johnson's bridge. Equally ludicrous. Actually, that's not fair. Trump's wall would be cheaper to build.

Tell me how

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I’ve just watched the video of the actual prorogation happening in the House of Lords last night and the speaker John bercow waking back into a half empty commons chamber. Firstly he didn’t sit in the speakers chair but stood in front of it. Now, I’ve never seen a prorogation happen before so have no idea if the speaker walking back into the chamber is part of it, but did anyone else find it a very strange atmosphere ? I know it was in the middle of the night, but it was a very depressing scene.

I was watching it live and it was surreal. One of those incidents where you know this is going to be showed in to the future as a significant moment.

It was yet another plot twist in the mother of all plot twists that is Brexit.
Bercow resigning and a good portion of the days debate being given over to people lauding him for his time in the chair. And then, him sticking it to the Tories in the manner in which he is going, his reaction to the prorogation and then coming back in to the HoC and having what looked like most of the opposition line up to shake his hand.

Mental with a capital M.

FrancieBrady

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Trump's wall and Johnson's bridge. Equally ludicrous. Actually, that's not fair. Trump's wall would be cheaper to build.

The prospect of a 'bridge' is to allow the DUP to talk up achieving something. It will be quietly shelved down the road. A bridge too far.

prawnsambo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Daily Telegraph reporting tomorrow that Boris Johnson want regulatory border in the Irish sea.

He has offered DUP a veto on future changes to the arrangement (so long as they can't unilaterally leave it, this could be acceptable to the EU)

He has also offered to build a bridge.

I think he may have responded to their dismay with "build a bridge and get over it".



I wonder how much of a fudge he's pulled on them? There'd be precious little time to go over the fine detail before they have to vote on it.

Spanish Eyes

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I’ve just watched the video of the actual prorogation happening in the House of Lords last night and the speaker John bercow waking back into a half empty commons chamber. Firstly he didn’t sit in the speakers chair but stood in front of it. Now, I’ve never seen a prorogation happen before so have no idea if the speaker walking back into the chamber is part of it, but did anyone else find it a very strange atmosphere ? I know it was in the middle of the night, but it was a very depressing scene.

It was a very sad indictment of the so called Democracy that the Tories, Hard Brexiteers, and the Brexit Party profess to espouse re Brexit.

Very sad day for Democracy in UK, but spun as a five day break out of the ordinary suspension for the Conference Season. See how it is being spun?

I honestly cannot believe the lack of manic reaction as in marches, and so on regarding this. Can anyone else explain? Are UK people just punch drunk and couldn't care less, or do they care, but realise nothing will change now.

I cannot believe it myself. But must give myself a kick now and then and realise UK is not Ireland is it? Such a tolerant nation they are, well up to now anyway.

Mr.Nice Guy

The DUP didn't do media after the Johnson meeting which makes you wonder how well it really went. Here's an Ulster Unionist MLA's take on it:

https://twitter.com/alcham49/status/1171494343057670144

An Ciarraioch

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

From the Telegraph but paywalled



https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/09/10/irish-backstop-could-boris-johnson-have-answer-solve-brexit/

The key word there is future changes. - so they would not have a say on it actually coming in to force.

Unfortunately, once you click into it through the Beeb's Tomorrow's Papers Today, the full story moves on to trusted traders and alternative arrangements:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1171525686365843456

Spanish Eyes

I saw a picture of the DUP delegation following the meeting, all smiles and such.

I personally don't believe it went all their way regarding NI only Backstop, but we shall see.

A few billion and a suspension or delay of the Cash for Ash enquiry might sway them.

But SSM and abortion rights are on the cards, and there is always the threat of Direct Rule too. Which applies to both sides.

Who holds all the cards here?

A Dub in Glasgo

hill16bhoy wrote: »

They feel it does, and that's all that matters - so it does matter. They feel they're being chucked under the bus by the rest of UK, that their status is being changed without their consent. That's an entirely fair point of view.

It's not for me or you to tell people with a British identity in NI how that identity or their right to a British identity is being affected.

Others so inclined could ask, how would a hard border weaken people in NI's right to an Irish identity? As they'd still have the right to an Irish passport and all that - devil's advocate argument.
.

Sorry if I missed it in all the updates on this thread but what is your solution to the Brexit conundrum?