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Rainfall Warnings and Thunderstorm possibility Sunday 4-8-19

  • 03-08-2019 6:33pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Thought it worth starting a thread as we now have rainfall warnings in place for Kerry, Clare and Galway tomorrow with Met Eireann saying possibility of 20 to 30mm . I would think that this could fall in a relatively short period of time ( 5 to 7 hrs maybe ) so spot flooding a definite risk. Forecast could be updated also given the unpredictable nature of these kind of set ups.

    ECM and ICON leading the way with Thunderstorm predictions I reckon. Initially in the SW, W and NW and moving across the country during the day and evening.



    Updated 22.42

    Sat 3-8-19



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    Status: Yellow
    Rainfall warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare and Kerry
    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare and Kerry
    Heavy rain is expected during Sunday afternoon and evening, with 20-30 mm falling over a short period of time.

    Valid: Sunday 04 August 2019 14:00 to Sunday 04 August 2019 21:00


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Comments

  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 Cork Boy 53


    Limerick left out of this warning despite both Kerry and Clare being included.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    All the models now showing reasonable CAPE levels. Good DLS and instability giving some big downpours and probably scattered thunderstorms.

    Breezy as the front goes through and possibly a few convective gusts out of the bigger clouds.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    http://www.estofex.org/


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    DISCUSSION

    ... Ireland ...

    An occlusion crosses Ireland during the afternoon/evening with better LL moisture and a tad better mid-level lapse rates both result in 400-700 J/kg MLCAPE. DLS in the 15 m/s range is adequate for a few longer-lived updrafts with strong wind gusts and isolated hail. Overall risk is too low for a level 1. Beyond sunset, conditions deteriorate rapidly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭ vickers209


    Going glamping down in clare tomorrow evening should be an intresting Afternoon/evening


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Limerick left out of this warning despite both Kerry and Clare being included.

    ECM 12z just out and probably will include Limerick also in the warnings.

    If anything the 12Z has upped the possibility of thunderstorms and becoming quite widespread.

    Some very heavy rain crossing the country as the shortwave develops. Could be gusty across Southern counties for a time.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM and ICON showing a possible cluster of thunderstorms towards the E in the evening. Parameters including DLS, diurnal heating , convergence and forcing from the developing shortwave all conducive to producing a late flurry of activity perhaps.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 21,821 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    Thanks. Will give this a watch tomorrow. Looks interesting for the western half of the country as well as the midlands.

    Not expecting much in the way of entertainment in Dub.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,996 ✭✭✭✭ gozunda


    The ME warning gives an expected timeframe of
    - Sunday 04 August 2019 14:00 to Sunday 04 August 2019 20:00

    Do the various charts indicate something similar?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,449 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    Here’s a forecast you don’t hear everyday from Met Eireann. “Lightening” really guys?? :(

    Probably be changed to ‘slight chance of thunder’ in the morning no doubt...

    “Sunday will start mainly dry with bright or sunny spells. During the morning in the west and southwest showers will develop with thunderstorms expected through the western half of the country through the late morning and early afternoon, moving northwards through Connacht and Ulster. These storms will bring downpours which will at times result in large amounts of rain falling in short periods of time, reducing visibility on roads and possibly including hail and lightening. To the east, the afternoon will be mostly dry with sunny spells, there'll be showers in the evening, these not as heavy. Highest temperatures of 18 to 22 degrees in light to moderate south to southeast winds, but fresh and gusty near south coasts.”


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare and Kerry

    Heavy rain is expected during Sunday afternoon and evening, with 20-30 mm falling over a short period of time.

    Valid: Sunday 04 August 2019 14:00 to Sunday 04 August 2019 21:00


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Here’s a forecast you don’t hear everyday from Met Eireann. “Lightening” really guys?? :(

    Still forecast for 'lightening' this morning. :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,449 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Still forecast for 'lightening' this morning. :P

    I see that :D

    Edit: Nope it’s gone now and replaced with the crucial word ‘Thundery’


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,666 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    The absence of the Shannon rainfall radar will be well noticed today.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Still forecast for 'lightening' this morning. :P

    New website didn't have spell check included obviously.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,481 ✭✭✭ Comhrá


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    The absence of the Shannon rainfall radar will be well noticed today.

    Rarely breaks down during fine weather, or so it seems anyway.

    Today would have been very interesting to watch if it were working. :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,204 ✭✭✭✭ Akrasia


    I’m camping in Cahir today. Yesterday we were at Fanore in North Clare. It would have been so cool to watch the thunderstorms rolling in over Galway Bay


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,070 ✭✭✭✭ fryup


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    The absence of the Shannon rainfall radar will be well noticed today.

    how critical for forecasting is it?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,122 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    fryup wrote: »
    how critical for forecasting is it?

    Not critical for forecasting (....just nowcasting).

    Just like trying to look out the window but the curtains are shut!


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,070 ✭✭✭✭ fryup


    is SAT 24 actual real-time satellite footage ??


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,423 ✭✭✭ Berties_Horse


    fryup wrote: »
    is SAT 24 actual real-time satellite footage ??

    Updates every five minutes, so one is never more than a few minutes behind.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,070 ✭✭✭✭ fryup


    it just that sometimes its in contradiction with ventusky....and i don't know which site to trust


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,836 ✭✭✭ TheMilkyPirate


    fryup wrote: »
    it just that sometimes its in contradiction with ventusky....and i don't know which site to trust

    Trust Sat24. They are real time satellite images


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,316 ✭✭✭✭ Discodog


    Does anyone know if these Sat images are real time ?

    https://meteoradar.co.uk/satellite-rainradar

    I quite like the combination of Sat plus radar - when the radar is working


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,114 ✭✭✭ weisses


    Discodog wrote: »
    Does anyone know if these Sat images are real time ?

    https://meteoradar.co.uk/satellite-rainradar

    I quite like the combination of Sat plus radar - when the radar is working

    Looks like it

    I'm on the far end of the Dingle peninsula Baking in the glorious sunshine


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Mostly cloudy with a few showers and a few sunny bursts here near Tralee. 18.3C, DP 16C, Rh 84%, Wind light SSW

    The heavy rain going by the AROME seems o go through quite quickly.

    ECM leading the way with the highest rainfall totals.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭ Mortelaro


    A few heavy showers in the Arklow area last night and this morning but pleasant sunshine inbetween today so far
    8.4mm since 11pm last night


  • Registered Users Posts: 762 ✭✭✭ Kutebride


    Beautiful Day Sligo


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,151 ✭✭✭ jimbobaloobob


    Kicking off here in SW Conamara


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭ squarecircles


    just had a brief heavy downpour ,West Mayo, hazy horizon,dark navy thundery clouds brewing casting a veil over the Mweelra mountains to my south.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,817 ✭✭✭ redsteveireland


    Mostly cloudy with a few showers and a few sunny bursts here near Tralee. 18.3C, DP 16C, Rh 84%, Wind light SSW

    The heavy rain going by the AROME seems o go through quite quickly.

    ECM leading the way with the highest rainfall totals.


    Those that give a later time for arrival of the heavier rain? Compared to the yellow warning which is effective from 2pm?


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