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Rainfall Warnings and Thunderstorm possibility Sunday 4-8-19
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03-08-2019 6:33pm#1Thought it worth starting a thread as we now have rainfall warnings in place for Kerry, Clare and Galway tomorrow with Met Eireann saying possibility of 20 to 30mm . I would think that this could fall in a relatively short period of time ( 5 to 7 hrs maybe ) so spot flooding a definite risk. Forecast could be updated also given the unpredictable nature of these kind of set ups.
ECM and ICON leading the way with Thunderstorm predictions I reckon. Initially in the SW, W and NW and moving across the country during the day and evening.
Updated 22.42
Sat 3-8-19
Status: Yellow
Rainfall warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare and Kerry
Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare and Kerry
Heavy rain is expected during Sunday afternoon and evening, with 20-30 mm falling over a short period of time.
Valid: Sunday 04 August 2019 14:00 to Sunday 04 August 2019 21:007
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All the models now showing reasonable CAPE levels. Good DLS and instability giving some big downpours and probably scattered thunderstorms.
Breezy as the front goes through and possibly a few convective gusts out of the bigger clouds.
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http://www.estofex.org/
DISCUSSION
... Ireland ...
An occlusion crosses Ireland during the afternoon/evening with better LL moisture and a tad better mid-level lapse rates both result in 400-700 J/kg MLCAPE. DLS in the 15 m/s range is adequate for a few longer-lived updrafts with strong wind gusts and isolated hail. Overall risk is too low for a level 1. Beyond sunset, conditions deteriorate rapidly.
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Cork Boy 53 wrote: »Limerick left out of this warning despite both Kerry and Clare being included.
ECM 12z just out and probably will include Limerick also in the warnings.
If anything the 12Z has upped the possibility of thunderstorms and becoming quite widespread.
Some very heavy rain crossing the country as the shortwave develops. Could be gusty across Southern counties for a time.
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ECM and ICON showing a possible cluster of thunderstorms towards the E in the evening. Parameters including DLS, diurnal heating , convergence and forcing from the developing shortwave all conducive to producing a late flurry of activity perhaps.
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Here’s a forecast you don’t hear everyday from Met Eireann. “Lightening” really guys??
Probably be changed to ‘slight chance of thunder’ in the morning no doubt...
“Sunday will start mainly dry with bright or sunny spells. During the morning in the west and southwest showers will develop with thunderstorms expected through the western half of the country through the late morning and early afternoon, moving northwards through Connacht and Ulster. These storms will bring downpours which will at times result in large amounts of rain falling in short periods of time, reducing visibility on roads and possibly including hail and lightening. To the east, the afternoon will be mostly dry with sunny spells, there'll be showers in the evening, these not as heavy. Highest temperatures of 18 to 22 degrees in light to moderate south to southeast winds, but fresh and gusty near south coasts.”0 -
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Mostly cloudy with a few showers and a few sunny bursts here near Tralee. 18.3C, DP 16C, Rh 84%, Wind light SSW
The heavy rain going by the AROME seems o go through quite quickly.
ECM leading the way with the highest rainfall totals.
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