You're €44,365 in debt. All set for another recession?

The national debt per capita is actually on the increase. It currently stands at €44,365 per person.

It's quite refreshing to see the media ackowledge this, outside of the normal news cycle -- but of course, it isn't an historical conversation. This money is repeatedly falling due, and we're paying it.

These figures won't surprise most people, but we should never forget the sheer scale of our national debt (an even smaller figure than our GGD/ public debt), which has quadrupled since the beginning of the great recession.

We're also heading into deeply uncertain times, and another recession is probably now overdue.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-debt-44-365-is-owed-by-every-man-woman-and-child-in-the-state-1.3954806

The Government has been repeatedly warned that having such a large debt pile leaves the economy more at risk to shocks such as Brexit.
The figures show that General Government Net Debt stood at €215.5 billion at the end of the first quarter of this year, which equates to 65.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), the standard measure of national income.

This compares with a debt level of 63.6 per cent of GDP at the end of last year. The increase in the debt ratio is due mainly to increased net issuance of short-term and long-term debt securities of €3.6 billion and €4.7 billion respectively, the CSO said.

How are ye fixed for the next economic crisis?

vriesmays

The solution is easy - more immigrants.

ILoveYourVibes

I have zero debt.

Not only that. No member of my family has any debt at all not even a car loan.

And yes we own cars and property.

RobbingBandit

Can we start a cull, or how about sign up sheets for murder suicides. Though in saying that I really enjoyed the government cheese that last time we were broke.

GMSA

My bank statement says otherwise.

Harry Palmr

I'm well in profit surplus.

TheValeyard

My wages are still recovering from previous crash. I'm not getting any joy out of this supposed new boom. Who is making all the money?

Twenty Grand

Plenty of cash in the bank and other places.

colm_mcm

Take it out of our dole. Fiver a week.

RobbingBandit

Twenty Grand wrote: »

Plenty of cash in the bank and other places.

Do tell.

ILoveYourVibes

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I have zero debt.

You don't though.

This isn't some abstract hypothesis. It's a real debt, actual cash, and these are real borrowings. They are reflected in your tax contributions.

Boom_Bap

€44,365, I wish, way more than that. Up t'me bollicks in debt so I am

Odyssey 2005

Not another red cent....

Oh wait

Rubberchikken

i have no debts so count me out.

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1

Who do I send a cheque to to clear my share and have it done with?

Sabre0001

TheValeyard wrote: »

My wages are still recovering from previous crash. I'm not getting any joy out of this supposed new boom. Who is making all the money?

The rich and/or powerful

topper75

40 odd grand - is that all it is?

Bastards in the bank were trying to stick me for 80k on their statement! The leprechaun economics cnuts.

Demi Warm Windfall

Demi Warm Windfall wrote: »

Who so I send a cheque to to clear my share and have it done with?

"We regret to inform you that although you have cleared your balance, a new debt will automatically apply in January"

I'm not some libertarian -- far from it -- almost every country bar North Korea has a national debt.

The scale of ours is what's shocking, and sometimes I think we've almost shrugged our shoulders and forgotten it.

We won't be long recalling it during the next recession.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades!

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The national debt per capita is actually on the increase. It currently stands at €44,365 per person.

It's quite refreshing to see the media ackowledge this, outside of the normal news cycle -- but of course, it isn't an historical conversation. This money is repeatedly falling due, and we're paying it.

These figures won't surprise most people, but we should never forget the sheer scale of our national debt (an even smaller figure than our GGD/ public debt), which has quadrupled since the beginning of the great recession.

We're also heading into deeply uncertain times, and another recession is probably now overdue.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-debt-44-365-is-owed-by-every-man-woman-and-child-in-the-state-1.3954806



How are ye fixed for the next economic crisis?

Jez will ya stop being such a misery guts and go on and spend spend spend- it will all get cancelled anyway as no country in the world have the capacity to pay off their debts

ELM327

Does that include mortgage debt?

A shocking level of debt if it is only credit cards and personal loans

EDIT: never mind, it's postulating around the national debt. National debt per capita is irrelevant once you can afford the repayments.
A prime example of a useful sounding statistic that is actually nothing but useless populist tripe

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Does that include mortgage debt?

A shocking level of debt if it is only credit cards and personal loans

No, that's the money that is owed by the taxpayer on behalf of Government.

There isn't a cent of private debt counted in that figure, which we're all on the hook for, should the banks encounter any more difficulties.

ELM327 wrote: »

Does that include mortgage debt?

A shocking level of debt if it is only credit cards and personal loans

EDIT: never mind, it's postulating around the national debt. National debt per capita is irrelevant once you can afford the repayments.
A prime example of a useful sounding statistic that is actually nothing but useless populist tripe

"Populist tripe"?

It's one of the biggest debt obligations worldwide.

ELM327

Yes but we don't need to pay it all down. Service the loan, pay some capital in the good times (now) and roll the rest of it over.

State (ie taxpayer) debt is not populist tripe, far from it. But equating it to per capita to get clicks is just nonsense.

Potential-Monke

Sweet, i'm 50% of the national average! Thought I was on the higher end of personal debt. Yurt!

Spanish Eyes

I have to really think about this. We seem to have plenty of billions to throw at BB and the NCH in James, various infrastructural projects and so on, but very little for building social housing, public transport and Healthcare etc..

I'm not concerned for my own situation thankfully. Went round the block the last time, so have built up a rainy day fund now. However, I am expecting a downturn if No Deal Brexit happens. Even if it doesn't, the uncertainty surrounding it has begun to trickle down a bit I think. Houses are not selling as quickly, and sale prices are flat. That is not a problem in itself, but may mirror a shrinking of confidence.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes but we don't need to pay it all down. Service the loan, pay some capital in the good times (now) and roll the rest of it over.

State (ie taxpayer) debt is not populist tripe, far from it. But equating it to per capita to get clicks is just nonsense.

I used to argue that exact same point. But it only makes sense if the debt isn't growing, and/or if economic conditions remain constant, with no (or negligible) risk of a recession.

If either of those conditions aren't met, you have trouble.

We have a huge GGD. A recession is probably statistically, overdue.

You see where I'm going with this?

i mean it would be entirely redundant to point out that's not how national debt works

wouldnt....it?

D3V!L

I'd happily take the 44,365 to be honest. I owe about 10 times that.

Your Face

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

How are ye fixed for the next economic crisis?

I'm currently upskilling and as soon as I'm finished my various courses - I'll be looking to emigrate for good.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

i mean it would be entirely redundant to point out that's not how national debt works

wouldnt....it?

I think anyone who has lived through the last recession knows how public debt/ National Debt/ GGD works.

So do ratings agencies and financial institutions who keep a careful eye on our metrics, and decide the sustainability of our debt.

ELM327

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I used to argue that exact same point. But it only makes sense if the debt isn't growing, and/or if economic conditions remain constant, with no (or negligible) risk of a recession.

If either of those conditions aren't met, you have trouble.

We have a huge GGD. A recession is probably statistically, overdue.

You see where I'm going with this?

we will in all likelihood have a recession (probably minor) in the next 18-24 months. Granted.


We should have been making payments off the capital since about 2014 rather than bowing to the screeches of the extreme left for pay increases.



However in a banana republic like ours we elect loonies and pay the price (literally) in the poor governance we receive.


It should be paid down in the good times, but (and this is my point) painting the picture of the per capita figure implies that it all needs to be paid back and ASAP. When in reality a majority of national debt is serviced and rolled over.

Uncharted

What's needed here are more shopping trips to New York and decking, lots of decking.

tabby aspreme

[quote="A Tyrant Named Miltiades!;

How are ye fixed for the next economic crisis?[/quote]

Grand !! I'm going to use the 44k which I have been pre approved for, to leverage another 100k, I didn't party during the tiger years but I'm not missing out this time, going shopping for a new deck, a conservatory, and a month in Lanzagorotty

Uncharted

Uncharted wrote: »

What's needed here are more shopping trips to New York and decking, lots of decking.

theres a fair proportion of the population need decking alright!

dhaughton99

In the council estate I’m living, all the younger families are driving newish people carriers and 4 wheel drives.

ELM327

ELM327 wrote: »

It should be paid down in the good times, but (and this is my point) painting the picture of the per capita figure implies that it all needs to be paid back and ASAP. When in reality a majority of national debt is serviced and rolled over.

No country ever pays off its national debt, with the exception of a handful of countries who have discovered massive wells of oil in their backyard.

That's a given.

The per capita statistic is not a per unit time figure, so I'm not sure why it would lead anyone to believe that the debt needs to be repaid immediately. I think most people know that isn't the case.

By now, most people also know that its a measurement that is employed by banking institutions and financial media when discussing whether or not our debt load is sustainable.

amcalester

€44K? I ****ing wish that’s all I owed.

A Tyrant Named Miltiades!

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

No country ever pays off its national debt, with the exception of a handful of countries who have discovered massive wells of oil in their backyard.

That's a given.

The per capita statistic is not a per unit time figure, so I'm not sure why it would lead anyone to believe that the debt needs to be repaid immediately. I think most people know that isn't the case.

By now, most people also know that its a measurement that is employed by banking institutions and financial media when discussing whether or not our debt load is sustainable.

so why start the thread with such a bait line

Harry Palmr

national debt is merely about interest payments, less or more. Interest rates are on the floor and are not going to rise. Certainly not in a recession.

ILoveYourVibes

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

You don't though.

This isn't some abstract hypothesis. It's a real debt, actual cash, and these are real borrowings. They are reflected in your tax contributions.

That's not the way I see it though.
No matter where I live I will pay tax.

I see your point though...i feel less proud ...i feel foolish for feeling as free as i did a moment ago...life ..seemed so simple then.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

so why start the thread with such a bait line

Bait?

We're talking macroeconomics/ political economy here.

It's hardly Love Island.

serfboard

tabby aspreme wrote: »

a month in Lanzagorotty

Would that be the island:

a) that's a real dump - Lanzagrotty

or

b) where you're likely to get murdered - Lanzagarrotey

McMurphy

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I have zero debt.

Not only that. No member of my family has any debt at all not even a car loan.

And yes we own cars and property.

Wanderer78

The rapid rise of private debt was one of the main culprits of the last recession, not public debt

ILoveYourVibes

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

That's so me.

kneemos

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

No country ever pays off its national debt, with the exception of a handful of countries who have discovered massive wells of oil in their backyard.

That's a given.

The per capita statistic is not a per unit time figure, so I'm not sure why it would lead anyone to believe that the debt needs to be repaid immediately. I think most people know that isn't the case.

By now, most people also know that its a measurement that is employed by banking institutions and financial media when discussing whether or not our debt load is sustainable.

We were damn near it before the recession. Thirty billion or something if I remember rightly.

ILoveYourVibes

We will never pay off our debt as a country.

codrulz

Debt to GDP has become a redundant figure with regards to Ireland. Debt to GNI offers a much more accurate depiction as to the state of our national debt.
Ireland's Debt:GDP has been improving considerably in recent years, not due to a prudent government and hyperactive NTMA but skewed GDP statistics. Our national debt isn't decreasing, our GDP is just increasing exorbitantly. Hopefully, the NTMA will continue lowering our avg interest rate given the current historic low rates we could fix to.

colm_mcm

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

We will never pay off our debt as a country.

Course we will.

ILoveYourVibes

colm_mcm wrote: »

Course we will.

You really fink so?? You really believe in us??

Plumbthedepths

ELM327 wrote:

However in a banana republic like ours we elect loonies and pay the price (literally) in the poor governance we receive.

I've heard FG described as many things but never loonies.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

The rapid rise of private debt was one of the main culprits of the last recession, not public debt

True. Lest I be accused of being an old misery guts again (but I am an old misery guts), it's worth remarking that our private debt stock has fallen impressively.

kneemos wrote: »

We were damn near it before the recession. Thirty billion or something if I remember rightly.

And then came the 360 billiion euro of contingent liabilities, via the financial institutions.

We came close to wiping-out the debt because we were in a boom-bust cycle of a magnitude that this planet has rarely seen.

Your point is accurate, but it only goes to demonstrate the unsustainable nature of our public debt in historical terms. As a state, we are bad with money. We haven't learned our final lesson yet.