Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim · 17-07-2019 10:09PM

In the case of the UK it's just a nod and a wink from the outgoing PM to a hereditary monarch.

The UK system deserves all the criticism it gets.

The opposition can run a vote of confidence at any time in the PM or the Government and you will see the majority of the elected MPs vote for the PM.... or not as the case may be

BonnieSituation · 17-07-2019 10:10PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

FPTP. Enough said.

We're talking about what happens after the anachronism of FPTP.

God the Brits love anachronistic procedures.

BonnieSituation · 17-07-2019 10:12PM

trellheim wrote: »

The opposition can run a vote of confidence at any time in the PM or the Government and you will see the majority of the elected MPs vote for the PM.... or not as the case may be

We can do that here too. I don't get your point.

But the Taoiseach is still elected by the Dáil.

The PM is assumed to have a majority/command. They are not similar. Maybe after an election you could argue it, but not now, when you're on a bare majority during a crisis!

BluePlanet · 17-07-2019 10:12PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

I think its a reasonable enough move to try and avoid having a different time for seven months of the year between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

One might hope that more eagle eyed Brexiteer might be able to appreciate the motives in a smaller nation having to cut its coat by its cloth when it comes to policy decisions made by the economic giant next door, but that might be too optimistic of me.

Why wouldn't it be the other way around?
By harmonizing with Europe the size of the Republic vs NI will force NI to sync wit us?

Professor Moriarty · 17-07-2019 10:13PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

We're talking about what happens after the anachronism of FPTP.

God the Brits love anachronistic procedures.

If they had PR they wouldn't have a Tory government or a Johnson PM. They wouldn't have had a Brexit referendum either. Everything stems from FPTP.

Kermit.de.frog · 17-07-2019 10:15PM

I'm increasingly coming to the view that a no deal is inevitable.

Neither of the leadership candidates will now be able to row back on comments they have made on the border in recent days.

They want the backstop gone and that's that.

BonnieSituation · 17-07-2019 10:16PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm increasingly coming to the view that a no deal is inevitable.

Neither of the leadership candidates will now be able to row back on comments they have made on the border in recent days.

They want the backstop gone and that's that.

And where does Ireland come in? That's usually the follow up from your good self?

Professor Moriarty · 17-07-2019 10:21PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm increasingly coming to the view that a no deal is inevitable.

Neither of the leadership candidates will now be able to row back on comments they have made on the border in recent days.

They want the backstop gone and that's that.

It's only a straw in the wind, but the odds on No Deal haven't changed for weeks despite the rhetoric.

Foghladh · 17-07-2019 10:26PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

It would be exactly less!

The Dáil elected the Taoiseach who receives his seal of office from our elected President.

In the case of the UK it's just a nod and a wink from the outgoing PM to a hereditary monarch as to who the outgoing PM thinks might have a command of parliament.

If the HOC even voted for the PM after they are nominated, you may have an iota of a point. But they don't, so you don't.

The UK system deserves all the criticism it gets.

I don't think it works that way. If the person nominated doesn't have the confidence of the House they can be voted out pretty swiftly. If the nominated person has the parliamentary support they will retain the position. No different to the Irish situation. Varadkar won his appointment with 57 out of 163 in the Dail. Does this invalidate his position?

LeinsterDub · 17-07-2019 10:27PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm increasingly coming to the view that a no deal is inevitable.

Neither of the leadership candidates will now be able to row back on comments they have made on the border in recent days.

They want the backstop gone and that's that.

And how do you think this happens? There is no majority in parliament for it. A general election is the most likely outcome in my opinion

coastwatch · 17-07-2019 10:34PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

And how do you think this happens? There is no majority in parliament for it. A general election is the most likely outcome in my opinion

Possibly, but based on current sentiment, a general election, followed by a No Deal.

Professor Moriarty · 17-07-2019 10:35PM

coastwatch wrote: »

Possibly, but based on current sentiment, a general election, followed by a No Deal.

If Corbyn is still in situ, I reckon you're right.

J Mysterio · 17-07-2019 10:36PM

So Boris waves around a kipper on stage and said the EU forced costs on kipper smokers and made them ship the kippers in 'ice pillows'.

BonnieSituation · 17-07-2019 10:38PM

Foghladh wrote: »

I don't think it works that way. If the person nominated doesn't have the confidence of the House they can be voted out pretty swiftly. If the nominated person has the parliamentary support they will retain the position. No different to the Irish situation. Varadkar won his appointment with 57 out of 163 in the Dail. Does this invalidate his position?

I don't think you get this. Nor do you seem to understand abstentions or confidence and supply agreements.

Water John · 17-07-2019 10:40PM

The point is TM recommends to the Queen as to whom will be able to form a Govn't. If she has been informed by a few Tories that they won't support Johnson, she cannot, constitutionally make that recommendation.

Professor Moriarty · 17-07-2019 10:42PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think you get this. Nor do you seem to understand abstentions or confidence and supply agreements.

He's right.

Spanish Eyes · 17-07-2019 10:45PM

No Deal is NOT inevitable. That pair of candidates are playing to a very small audience of Tory Party members, not to the general public.

All can change once in power and the reality of it all bites. We shall see.

Johnson however is to my mind a liar and a charlatan. But he is getting away with it hook, line and sinker. That might change when he is PM.

I wonder who he will appoint as the new Ambassador to the US, or should I say who will he be TOLD to appoint. By the orange one. 51st State of the Union. Forget about the UK.

J Mysterio · 17-07-2019 10:47PM

Dead cat on the table, kipper in the hand. It's all the one.

trellheim · 17-07-2019 10:58PM

But he is getting away with it hook, line and sinker. That might change when he is PM

Surely the fact of him becoming PM, ipso facto he can get away with it, so why change ?

the only people he has to answer to will have put him where he wants to go.

Foghladh · 17-07-2019 10:59PM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't think you get this. Nor do you seem to understand abstentions or confidence and supply agreements.

I think that I do. The Conservatives will elect a new leader, no different to Fine Gael. That leader will be judged by the sitting house and if the numbers aren't there then it's all up in the air. Whether that's in a direct vote before the appointment or in a vote of confidence after the appointment is irrelevant. I'm not sure what confidence and supply has to do with it

Headshot · 17-07-2019 11:16PM

Just a reminder

Panorama: Britain's Brexit Crisis is due to be broadcast on BBC One on Thursday at 21:00 BST.

woohoo!!! · 17-07-2019 11:31PM

They'll Brexit alright and they'll celebrate and wave flags insisting they have won. And this little bubble will last a while, with issues like no trade deals and problems with customs brushed aside.

However, slowly but surely they will come to the realisation that Brexit isn't the end, no, it's merely the end of the beginning. Then the realisation will dawn on them that they've no clue what their future relationship with the EU and everyone else will be, nevermind how to get there when they do decide. A cautionary tale of the early 21st century.

trellheim · 17-07-2019 11:35PM

No Deal is NOT inevitable

OK write me a dialogue that has Johnson asking for an extension in the week leading up to 31st October .... actually you don't have to though cos I can't come up with one either.

Peregrinus · 18-07-2019 02:00AM

trellheim wrote: »

OK write me a dialogue that has Johnson asking for an extension in the week leading up to 31st October .... actually you don't have to though cos I can't come up with one either.

Well, here's a scenario:

Johson continues in the present vein of signalling a willingness to embrace a no-deal Brexit and an evident intention of doing so by adopting a needlessly intransigent negotiating stance.

Anti-no-dealers in the Commons let this slide until late September, telling themselves that he is saying this at first, to get elected as leader of the party and, secondly, to keep the party zealots happy until after the Tory conference in September. They expect (or at least hope) that he will change tack in October.

He doesn't change tack in October. The anti-no-dealers can no longer fool themselves that Johnson will swerve away from the cliff, and they have to act. The Commons passes some legislation, or some resolution, or takes some action against a no-deal Brexit which Johnson cannot ignore. Or, at any rate, chooses not to ignore.

Johnson announces that he needs a mandate for his intrangigent no-deal Brexit, and that he will seek it in a general election. He negotiates an electoral pact with the Brexit party, has the Commons pass the necessary resolution for a dissolution, and then asks the EU for a short extension to allow the election to take place.

(Optional extra: Johnson's purpose in this is to secure a majority which is not dependent on the DUP.)

Peregrinus · 18-07-2019 02:05AM

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Foghladh wrote: »

I don't think it works that way. If the person nominated doesn't have the confidence of the House they can be voted out pretty swiftly. If the nominated person has the parliamentary support they will retain the position. No different to the Irish situation. Varadkar won his appointment with 57 out of 163 in the Dail. Does this invalidate his position?

No, it's different. In Ireland, a Taoiseach isn't appointed by the President until after he has been approved by a majority vote in Dail Eireann. Varadkar only secured 57 votes in favour, but there were only 50 against. This means that everybody in Dail Eireann had to take a position on whether he should be Taoiseach before he could be appointed. That position could be "yes" or "no" or "I won't obstruct his appointment", but each TD had to nail his colours to one of these masts.

Whereas in the UK a PM becomes PM immediately on kissing hands, and he remains PM unless and until he loses the confidence of the House. Nobody in the House is required to take any position on whether he should be PM or not until the question is raised. On the one hand, this gives his opponents the tactical advantage of choosing when to raise the question. On the other hand, this gives him the considerable power of being PM unless and until the question is raised.

Mr.Nice Guy · 18-07-2019 02:11AM

Very concerning that Johnson is lining up Daniel Moylan to run his Brexit policy. He's comfortable with infrastructure being on the border.

https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1151493483166883840

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1151479032711712768

I can recall this person's tweets and remember him being very hostile to compromise. It would seem he's having his desired effect as Johnson has been openly declaring the WA to be dead a lot of late.

Looks like it's No Deal alright.

Tell me how · 18-07-2019 02:23AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Very concerning that Johnson is lining up Daniel Moylan to run his Brexit policy. He's comfortable with infrastructure being on the border.

I can recall this person's tweets and remember him being very hostile to compromise. It would seem he's having his desired effect as Johnson has been openly declaring the WA to be dead a lot of late.

Looks like it's No Deal alright.

Think then that Parliament will block No Deal, leading to a GE. (Can't see proroguing actually happening, although last few years have changed expectations about just what can go on)

KildareP · 18-07-2019 05:55AM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Why wouldn't it be the other way around?
By harmonizing with Europe the size of the Republic vs NI will force NI to sync wit us?

We are on a different timezone to continental Europe anyway, this proposed change won't alter that.

Besides from reports it seems it is causing disagreement across Europe with some member states wanting to fix to Summer time and others to Winter.

VinLieger · 18-07-2019 07:21AM

KildareP wrote: »

Besides from reports it seems it is causing disagreement across Europe with some member states wanting to fix to Summer time and others to Winter.

Each member state has the right to choose which timezone they fix to, theres no disagreement on that at all

Podge_irl · 18-07-2019 07:57AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

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No, it's different. In Ireland, a Taoiseach isn't appointed by the President until after he has been approved by a majority vote in Dail Eireann. Varadkar only secured 57 votes in favour, but there were only 50 against. This means that everybody in Dail Eireann had to take a position on whether he should be Taoiseach before he could be appointed. That position could be "yes" or "no" or "I won't obstruct his appointment", but each TD had to nail his colours to one of these masts.

Whereas in the UK a PM becomes PM immediately on kissing hands, and he remains PM unless and until he loses the confidence of the House. Nobody in the House is required to take any position on whether he should be PM or not until the question is raised. On the one hand, this gives his opponents the tactical advantage of choosing when to raise the question. On the other hand, this gives him the considerable power of being PM unless and until the question is raised.

There is also a not insubstantial difference between a Vote of No Confidence that sets off a 14 countdown to a new election if the situation is not resolved and simply not electing a new Taoiseach which pretty much maintains the status quo.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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