Directly Elected Mayor

breezy1985

The Green vote is nowhere near enough in a 1 seat race. Leddin will be very prominent in the run up though as a sitting TD.

A big SF or FG candidate would surely go straight in as favourite against the current list.

Celmullet

Considering the cross-party collaboration required with this role, I think I'd rather see it go to an independent candidate.

Cookiemunster

What cross party collaboration will be needed? The DEM will have executive powers that the councilors won't be able to supercede.

Celmullet

One example from your previous post explaining the functions of the DEM

The Mayor will be responsible for proposing the annual budget to the Council.

This reads to me that the Mayor is responsible for proposing it, but the Council doesn't have to vote it in, so having a willingness from those elected to the Council to work with the DEM as opposed to against them is the ideal situation. Sometimes parties just vote against each other for the sole reason that they are in a different party.

That's just my thoughts on the matter at the moment, we have another few weeks to go.

Cookiemunster

If a council fails to adopt a budget it will be dissolved and won't be replaced until the next local elections. The Dept of Housing, Local Government and Heritage will then appoint somebody to run everything until that election. Even if it's the full 5 year term.

For that reason, there's no fear of a budget ever not being adopted. It won't be an issue for the DEM.

Red Silurian

Looking at the last general election and where first pref votes went I think if the same repeated itself it would most likely be a Fianna Fail or Fine Gael Cadidate as combined they go over 50% first preferences

Party - City% - County% - Average

FF - 25 - 29 - 27

FG - 20 - 32 - 26

SF - 24 - 15 - 19.5

Lab - 6 - 0 - 3

SD - 4 - 0 - 2

Aontu - 3.4 - 1.5 - 2.45

PBP - 1.5 - 0 - 0.75

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121949970#Comment_121949970

You "forgot" the Greens 🤣

I assume the level of public interest will pick up significantly over the next 2 months. The less debate the more it suits the big 3 as people will just walk in and vote on party lines (which most will anyway)

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121950008#Comment_121950008

I didn't forget I... Oops yeah I did forget

They got 7% and 5.4% of first preference votes in the city and county respectively so an average of 6.4%

Probably not enough to win but their transfers could potentially be significant if the votes of FF/FG collapse too much

I suspect you're right, it will be a fight over party lines unless a candidate comes out with some big controversial statement. I'm thinking the levels of the Peter Casey comments about travelers that time of the presidential elections

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960680#Comment_121960680

In the end Casey got nowhere near the win though. He just capitalised on there being no decent candidate outside the incumbent.

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121960812#Comment_121960812

Yes, very true, he likely never stood a chance in hindsight, but he did finish second and had 4X the votes of the SF candidate in 3rd

I'm not suggesting a candidate needs to or should make the same big, controversial or devisive comments, or that they'd even win but they would upset things if they pushed the electorate in the right direction

The definition of a decent candidate is subjective but arguably we don't have one yet for the DEM

Cookiemunster

Maurice Quinlivan has declared. This surprises me seeing as his Dail seat is pretty safe.

https://twitter.com/Limerick_Leader/status/1775439872167379190

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121968533#Comment_121968533

I assume they looked at the field and saw they had a good chance with a strong candidate.

He is surely favourite now.

geotrig

yeah that is surprising as i had thought the same with his Dail seat, but without him sf didn't have a chance to get this seat.

breezy1985

If you look at someone like Andy Burnham it shows that a high profile mayor can have a bigger national media position than most TDs especially ones in opposition.

Cookiemunster

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121968624#Comment_121968624

On the same line of thinking, they'll have a tougher time getting someone elected to the Dail if it's not Quinlivan. He has a large personal vote.

LeoD

Will SF relax their demands for an early general election now (although I presume they're not really serious about it, just playing to the crowd)? With 3 things to vote on in June already in Limerick, I don't think we need a GE thrown in on top. If MQ is serious about winning the mayoral election, he'd hardly want a GE anytime soon?

Eoinbmw

Strange move from Quinlivan!

Surely as a sitting minister in the next government he would have had far more influence for his constituents !

Does anyone want to be involved in the next government?

Red Silurian

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121968990#Comment_121968990

It's not strange at all, if he wins then SF will likely win the by-election as well. If he doesn't win he will stay on as a TD but will have a better idea of the public perception of him in the run up to the upcoming GE. There's also benefits to being Limerick Mayor like not having to commute to Dublin for work. Less interruption from SF HQ etc etc

I suspect he's a shoe in to top the poll but he will need support from other like minded parties to get him over the line and I don't think there's enough votes out there for that to happen. I suspect SF won't be leading the next govt either for the same reason

Quitelife

Maurice Quinlivan is the first real big name candidate in going for the mayor and will get a big vote in the city , he certainly has been very active in dealing with crime issues etc which are a big problem in the city, popular with young people as well …..if he shows the same interest in all the crime in Abbeyfeale,Askeaton,Kilmallock, Newcastle West, Rathkeale he will get a lot of votes out the county and could well win the Mayor Election .

phog

SF trying to further legitimise themselves as politicians. Be great for them to have a DEM.

Cork might be thankful yet that they voted against having DEMs

geotrig

@red silurian, not sure they'd win the by-election either think MQ is in a simalar vain to Wod and people vote for the person more so than the party with them to some extent.

phog ,I Thought similar last night ,SF I think see it as a "step" to show their credentials per se, I like Maurice, not so much sf in general, hard to gauge how he'll do all over the city but think he would do well in some of the towns mentioned above ,so would see him as the favorite at the moment but that could be a very skewed angle I'm looking at here !.It will be interesting to see what all the candidate come out with on their campaigns as no candidate looks all that strong at the moment.

phog

My outside bet at the moment is Helen O'Donnell, she could well garner enough first preferences to get ahead of some of the others and then be in a position to get transfers from other candidates as they are eliminated, she has a tie to FG but is an independent who has worked on numerous charities and Boards as well as being a successful business woman. Her issue could well be that she did all this without claiming fame so her good work could have been missed by a large section of the electorate.

Cookiemunster

She hasn't a hope as an unknown independent.

breezy1985

She would have been a good candidate if she was the FG pick but on her own the best she will do is be the long shot first preference for a number of people who will most likely have FG or maybe FF as their "true" vote.

FG going last is interesting because they now know the field and I think will be under pressure to put in a strong candidate against Quinlivan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121972665#Comment_121972665

MQ is one of those core SF TDs who is a bit smarter than some of the newly elected guys and doesn't get himself caught singing "up the RA" on election night. Whatever about SF he is pretty articulate and level headed and at least can be trusted not to embarrass the place internationally.

Celmullet

Helen O'Donnell seems quite well known among women, could be a sleeper candidate for sure. Maurice has that name recognition, so wouldn't be surprised if he takes it.

Cookiemunster

She's well known in some circles. That does not equate to well known among women.

Celmullet

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121972761#Comment_121972761

Being unknown in some circles does not equate to being unknown in general.

I guess the ballot box will tell us how known or unknown she and the other candidates actually are.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121974470#Comment_121974470

She seems to have been involved in a lot of different charities and organisations which I'm sure will impress people once told but I don't think the average person will know she was involved in Limerick Clean Up, Adapt or those other places until she starts to campaign and tell people.

I don't see what would make her well known specifically with "women" in general.

Celmullet

I'm going off what I am seeing on social media seems to be a lot of support from women for her on there. We are all living in our little echo chambers and some of us will see more about one candidate than another or hear of one over another.

I had no idea who Laura Keyes or Dee Ryan were until they declared, and I looked them up, yet some people see them as favourites. Their actions were discussed not in my circles at all. Same with John Moran, had heard the name but couldn't tell you anything about his history.

johnnyryan89

Can someone that runs for DEM also run for the local election? If not surprised by Aontu running a candidate for DEM who'd be in with a shot of winning a seat in the local election.