Dublin - Metrolink (Swords to Charlemont only)

Sam Russell

The really big spending only starts when the TBM goes underground. That will not happen for a few years yet. Also the big spending will be small change to the current Covid-19 spending.

We will need large infrastructure spending to get the economy back. Plus we can borrow for next to nothing on such projects.

Yellow_Fern

Sam Russell wrote: »

The really big spending only starts when the TBM goes underground. That will not happen for a few years yet. Also the big spending will be small change to the current Covid-19 spending.

We will need large infrastructure spending to get the economy back. Plus we can borrow for next to nothing on such projects.

Large infrastructure spending is money that will have to repaid. History tells us that stimulus spending isnt supported by evidence. Look through history. The Metrolink will be an enormous bill but is important to go through with it because it will make life in Dublin more bearable. A downturn is a good time to build because prices might be cheaper but it will no bearing on our export driven economy.

donvito99

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

History tells us that stimulus spending isnt supported by evidence. Look through history.

You keep saying stuff like this without supplying evidence yourself.

In any case, please tell us exactly why spending via infrastructure projects does not stimulate the economy?

Sam Russell

Yellow_Fern wrote: »

Large infrastructure spending is money that will have to repaid. History tells us that stimulus spending isnt supported by evidence. Look through history. The Metrolink will be an enormous bill but is important to go through with it because it will make life in Dublin more bearable. A downturn is a good time to build because prices might be cheaper but it will no bearing on our export driven economy.

The countryside is littered with famine walls built to provide employment for starving workers who could barely walk let alone work. Canals were also built to provide work along routes where there was no commercial prospects.

However. Metrolink is needed anyway, stimulus or not. History tells us that underground railways always provide a worthwhile investment.

plodder

donvito99 wrote: »

You could set your watch by the Doheny & Nesbitt economists being asked by the media to vent about public transport projects.

These people have effectively presided over or advised those presiding over public policy for decades and as such we have them to thank for crippling congestion. The place is a mess, and we still seek out their opinions?

They are the go to people when you want the bean-counter perspective. They can always come up with a dozen reasons why not to do something, which sadly is what happened when they were listened to in the past.

In a way though, notwithstanding Eamon Ryan's previous issues with it, this could be a great opportunity for FF, FG and of course the Greens to get the credit for kicking off decent public transport for Dublin with MN.

D.L.R.

Podge_irl wrote: »

No it isn't. This is just people desperately looking for things to preemptively complain about. If they need to re-open tenders it will cause delays. That is unavoidable.

Again, the far more relevant part of what he said is this



There has been no public indication that metrolink will be voluntarily delayed/deferred/cancelled.

Deferral and technical delay are not the same. Deferral means taking it off the agenda for a full electoral cycle, at least. As opposed to delaying for say 18 months.

My feeling is he was floating deferral. Perhaps its just a negotiating position, and I believe he wants to proceed, but I also believe FG would sacrifice metro in exchange for a program for govt.

Podge_irl

D.L.R. wrote: »

Deferral and technical delay are not the same. Deferral means taking it off the agenda for a full electoral cycle, at least. As opposed to delaying for say 18 months.

My feeling is he was floating deferral. Perhaps its just a negotiating position, and I believe he wants to proceed, but I also believe FG would sacrifice metro in exchange for a program for govt.

You are just making up definitions now. Taken in context this is clearly not what he meant. Anyway, who would be asking them to sacrifice metrolink for a program for govt? The Greens are hardly going to demand it.

What he was "floating" was that he can't guarantee it will run on the same schedule as planned. The finance minister, the transport minister and the taoiseach have all said they plan for it to continue however. They have specifically highlighted the benefit of building it and the contrast to 09 when we couldn't borrow. FF are not opposed to it (at least the northside element).

People are hearing things that are not being said.

D.L.R.

Podge_irl wrote: »

You are just making up definitions now. Taken in context this is clearly not what he meant. Anyway, who would be asking them to sacrifice metrolink for a program for govt? The Greens are hardly going to demand it.

What he was "floating" was that he can't guarantee it will run on the same schedule as planned. The finance minister, the transport minister and the taoiseach have all said they plan for it to continue however. They have specifically highlighted the benefit of building it and the contrast to 09 when we couldn't borrow. FF are not opposed to it (at least the northside element).

People are hearing things that are not being said.

Firstly, stop calling me people.

Second, deferral/shelving/cancellation (call it what you want) is definitely still on the table as one financial mitigation option. Remember, DU wasn't cancelled, it was "deferred". And look at the DU situation today. Where is the revised plan FG promised? Where indeed.

This is not "unavoidable". Its a choice. FG chose to shelve DU. They can choose to shelve Metro. You can believe their couched words if you want.

I'll believe Metrolink is happening when the TBMS are in the ground.

MJohnston

D.L.R. wrote: »

Firstly, stop calling me people.

Second, deferral/shelving/cancellation (call it what you want) is definitely still on the table as one financial mitigation option. Remember, DU wasn't cancelled, it was "deferred". And look at the DU situation today. Where is the revised plan FG promised? Where indeed.

This is not "unavoidable". Its a choice. FG chose to shelve DU. They can choose to shelve Metro. You can believe their couched words if you want.

I'll believe Metrolink is happening when the TBMS are in the ground.

But you're attributing all of this "feeling" that you're having to an interview in which Donohoe said nothing to indicate that he was heading in that direction. While you're free to hold onto your pessimism, it's not backed up by what was said, and using that interview as some sort of proof is just wrongheaded.

It's fairly inevitable that Metrolink is going to face some technical delays, at this stage I would be very surprised if it didn't.

D.L.R.

MJohnston wrote: »

But you're attributing all of this "feeling" that you're having to an interview in which Donohoe said nothing to indicate that he was heading in that direction. While you're free to hold onto your pessimism, it's not backed up by what was said, and using that interview as some sort of proof is just wrongheaded.

It's fairly inevitable that Metrolink is going to face some technical delays, at this stage I would be very surprised if it didn't.

My cynicism isn't just from the Donohue quote. Its been carefully curated from years and years of disappointment and frustration at the Irish state's track record regards Dublin PT.

TBMs in the ground. Even then I'll be keeping an eye to make sure they keep turning.

Jamie2k9

I don't follow this in detail however this article from 2006 was an interesting read and Eamon Ryan's view in 2006 verses 2020...

https://www.lucidchart.com/documents/edit/75e72deb-afc5-4b42-8d0a-874ef601cc5d/0_0

Idbatterim

Good news on Metrolink front. Thank god for the greens, we might start catching up 9n being decades behind europe...

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/draft-programme-for-government-document-reveals-green-plans-for-spend-on-bus-and-rail-39284582.html

I actually said on this thread months back, the greens price for government should be Metrolink! The density permitted withinnwalkimg distance of the lime should be massively increased and stop the ridiculous unsustainable sprawl. The need to fund cost new infrastructure and services etc

cgcsb

Programmes for government are almost always works of fiction though. The details were getting from this government are fanciful at best:

- direct provision to end but no mention of a replacement scheme of how it'll be funded

- increase in foreign aid but no mention of how funding will happen

- an end to gas exploration in Ireland and an end to plans to import gas in tankers but again no mention of what replacement will be bought.

It's all fanciful fluff without any real commitment or realistic plans to achieve same.

Yellow_Fern

Idbatterim wrote: »

Good news on Metrolink front. Thank god for the greens, we might start catching up 9n being decades behind europe...

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/draft-programme-for-government-document-reveals-green-plans-for-spend-on-bus-and-rail-39284582.html

I actually said on this thread months back, the greens price for government should be Metrolink! The density permitted withinnwalkimg distance of the lime should be massively increased and stop the ridiculous unsustainable sprawl. The need to fund cost new infrastructure and services etc

The indulgence of their welfare spending endangers infrastructure spending sadly.

LXFlyer

cgcsb wrote: »

Programmes for government are almost always works of fiction though. The details were getting from this government are fanciful at best:

- direct provision to end but no mention of a replacement scheme of how it'll be funded

- increase in foreign aid but no mention of how funding will happen

- an end to gas exploration in Ireland and an end to plans to import gas in tankers but again no mention of what replacement will be bought.

It's all fanciful fluff without any real commitment or realistic plans to achieve same.

I think to a degree you are conflating election manifestos and programmes for government.

Programmes for government are as close as you can get to what the parties are realistically planning to do.

Failure to deliver on the commitments can (and has in the past) lead to coalitions collapsing.

They are never going to contain line-by-line level details but they certainly give a broad indication of what the parties agree to focus on.

Munurty

The draft programme for government mentions the following:

Specifically, the Government will prioritise plans for the delivery of Metrolink, Luas and other light
rail expansion, DART expansion and interconnector and Bus Connects in Dublin, Cork, Galway and
Limerick.

Draft programme for government can be found at:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/strongly-green-influenced-programme-for-government-drawn-up-1.4279051

cgcsb

LXFlyer wrote: »

I think to a degree you are conflating election manifestos and programmes for government.

Programmes for government are as close as you can get to what the parties are realistically planning to do.

Failure to deliver on the commitments can (and has in the past) lead to coalitions collapsing.

They are never going to contain line-by-line level details but they certainly give a broad indication of what the parties agree to focus on.

Both are often works of fiction. I do hope most of this is delivered. When it comes to energy though, the green party need a bit of a crash course on how the grid currently works and what is possible, because they don't seem to know at the minute.

noelfirl

'the Government will prioritise plans for the delivery of' =/= 'the Government will deliver'

I'd stick with the old adage - until you see hoarding around building sites, presume it's not happening and be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

In fact when I see 'interconnector' (lower case i), I can't help but think the conversation went a bit "what was the name of that thing from the noughties, the DART tunnel thing?" when they were drawing it up.

Sam Russell

noelfirl wrote: »

'the Government will prioritise plans for the delivery of' =/= 'the Government will deliver'

I'd stick with the old adage - until you see hoarding around building sites, presume it's not happening and be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

In fact when I see 'interconnector' (lower case i), I can't help but think the conversation went a bit "what was the name of that thing from the noughties, the DART tunnel thing?" when they were drawing it up.

Or 'What do you call one of those electical things to get electricity from France?'

Kellyconor1982

Today feels more positive than negative to be honest. Metrolink in it's current form is Fine Gael's baby. Fianna Fail stand to gain absolutely nothing by opposing it and were the Greens to put a spanner in the works then they would have essentially waved goodbye to pretty much their entire core support and lost any credibility.

They are saying the project will be prioritised which given the economic situation is a real positive. I felt a few weeks ago this could be delayed until 2029 or 2030. Now, I'm confident it will be 2027. Not perfect in a German or Dutch context, but for Ireland it feels like a victory.

Once this line is built, I really think things could move fast, even if it will be a decade-15 years away for the rest of the city.

Peregrine

Prioritise means not cancelled and still on track (pardon the pun). Which is good. Realistically, there's very little scope to actually prioritise MetroLink or BusConnects like the PfG says.

Pete_Cavan

Anything along the lines of "undertake a review of the project" is always the kiss of death. Metrolink not getting that is as good as we could have hoped for. The wheels are already in motion and will continue as such for the foreseeable, it's the best we could have hoped for.

Grandeeod

Eamonn Ryan said this morning that none of the programme has been costed yet and it was a case of agreeing things in order to form a Government.

Podge_irl

Grandeeod wrote: »

Eamonn Ryan said this morning that none of the programme has been costed yet and it was a case of agreeing things in order to form a Government.

Well then its good the Metrolink has been prioritised then, as we should see other plans falling away first.

Grandeeod

Podge_irl wrote: »

Well then its good the Metrolink has been prioritised then, as we should see other plans falling away first.

Metrolink is part of the programme for Government. None of the programme for Government has been costed yet. None of it whatsoever.

I'm not some anti Metro head, but reality needs to be taken into account.

Sam Russell

Grandeeod wrote: »

Metrolink is part of the programme for Government. None of the programme for Government has been costed yet. None of it whatsoever.

I'm not some anti Metro head, but reality needs to be taken into account.

Well, Metrolink is a project that could attract EU funding, particularly in a post-Covid19 economic expansionist environment.

Muahahaha

cgcsb wrote: »

Programmes for government are almost always works of fiction though. The details were getting from this government are fanciful at best:

- direct provision to end but no mention of a replacement scheme of how it'll be funded

- increase in foreign aid but no mention of how funding will happen

- an end to gas exploration in Ireland and an end to plans to import gas in tankers but again no mention of what replacement will be bought.

It's all fanciful fluff without any real commitment or realistic plans to achieve same.

They were the two that stood out to me. Theres a fairly good chance there is a huge gas field off Kerry. Without exploration to find it we'll just instead end up buying gas from Russia. This will cost the economy money plus the carbon emission to get it here from Russia rather than Kerry. .

Plus the Greens dont seem to realise that many Direct Provision centres like Mosney are locked into 20 year contracts. It wont matter if they close them down tomorrow the suppliers will still have to be paid millions per annum and that will be money down the drain. And now asylum seekers will have to be housed in much more expensive apartments and houses. Again this will cost the economy serious money at current rents. Its all pie in the sky stuff.
.
Overall a good day for Metro though I feel, provided Eamon doesnt get his crayons out again to swerve it to Rathfarnham.

cgcsb

Kellyconor1982 wrote: »

Today feels more positive than negative to be honest. Metrolink in it's current form is Fine Gael's baby. Fianna Fail stand to gain absolutely nothing by opposing it and were the Greens to put a spanner in the works then they would have essentially waved goodbye to pretty much their entire core support and lost any credibility.

They are saying the project will be prioritised which given the economic situation is a real positive. I felt a few weeks ago this could be delayed until 2029 or 2030. Now, I'm confident it will be 2027. Not perfect in a German or Dutch context, but for Ireland it feels like a victory.

Once this line is built, I really think things could move fast, even if it will be a decade-15 years away for the rest of the city.

Metrolink might happen but there is a 0% chance of it being delivered in 2027. We would have to have a railway order, finance and a tenderer now to meet that target.

Podge_irl

Grandeeod wrote: »

Metrolink is part of the programme for Government. None of the programme for Government has been costed yet. None of it whatsoever.

I'm not some anti Metro head, but reality needs to be taken into account.

It is an already live project and will be prioritised. None of the PfG may be costed, but other things will fall away before metrolink.

You are not an anti-Metro head but you are clearly a metro doom monger. It may, ultimately, not happen but people hopping on every single potential issue and proclaiming it the death knell is tiresome.

Amirani

Worth mentioning as well that Metrolink now seems to be quite dependent on the Green membership voting in favour of the Programme For Government.

If they vote no, it's likely that FG and FF will have to try negotiate a new PFG with the rural independents, which would likely be far less favourable towards public transport projects in Dublin.