Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

makeorbrake

Dohnjoe wrote: »

I'm not investing in the asset, I'm investing in people FOMOing in and buying the asset thus increasing it's value.

Market psychology is a strong component of every single market - so no problem with that. It certainly sounds like it increases the risk when your assessment is that the asset at hand is 'dogcrap' but each to their own.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

It's dogcrap, but we know that certain people buy it. And smart people know those people will buy it. Which creates it's own self sustaining rise in a bull run.

And what triggers a sell order for you then? You have a better quality of information and yours is not the 'dumb' money. What information are you reviewing to base your sell order decisions on?

Dohnjoe wrote: »

I have an absurdly high number of alts. From my end: a bit of basic research to make sure the team is decent, that the idea "sounds good", that they have a whitepaper, roadmap, that the "fundamentals" are there. All that stuff makes it more attractive to the average crypto investor over a coin or project that doesn't have those things. Get lucky and you could get something that goes up 100x.

I'm pretty sure in the euphoria of the 2017 bullrun that worked - but as a strategy for today, it sounds dated.

Dohnjoe

makeorbrake wrote: »

Market psychology is a strong component of every single market - so no problem with that. It certainly sounds like it increases the risk when your assessment is that the asset at hand is 'dogcrap' but each to their own.

Crypto is not "the same" as other financial markets. It's almost entirely psychological value.

E.g. you or anyone can approximately calculate the value of a legal share of a company

You can't do that with most crypto. The value is arbitrary and mainly based on pure herd psychology and random events. Coin gets a 51% attack, goes up 15% on the day, there's no rationality to that.

And what triggers a sell order for you then? You have a better quality of information and yours is not the 'dumb' money. What information are you reviewing to base your sell order decisions on?

I don't trade. Buy low, sell a percentage high if I have the discipline.

For example, bought Stellar at some low price, it went through the roof in Dec 2017, sold a percentage which covered the original cost and made a profit, kept the rest in case it went much higher. A week later it had almost doubled in price, that's always the opportunity cost. Can't ever perfectly time bottoms and the tops. However a bull run is a good a time as any to sell.

Ripple went up almost 700x in 9 months. Whether or not you or anyone thinks it's a "****coin", if you had a few quid on it, you had enough for a car. If you had a few hundred, you had enough for a house.

I'm pretty sure in the euphoria of the 2017 bullrun that worked - but as a strategy for today, it sounds dated.

It's not a "strategy" as such. If BTC goes to 100k, you will be thinking of selling some.

makeorbrake

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Crypto is not "the same" as other financial markets. It's almost entirely psychological value.

I agree it's not the same. However, ALL markets have a strong psychological element. I disagree on crypto being entirely psychological value but that's alright - people differ.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

E.g. you or anyone can approximately calculate the value of a legal share of a company

You can't do that with most crypto. The value is arbitrary and mainly based on pure herd psychology and random events. Coin gets a 51% attack, goes up 15% on the day, there's no rationality to that.

I agree that they're not comparable. The metrics you use to assess the fair value of a stock can't be used here. This is the world of tokenomics. I agree that valuation assessment is much more difficult. As regards your example, I don't think that all projects are equal.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Ripple went up almost 700x in 9 months. Whether or not you or anyone thinks it's a "****coin", if you had a few quid on it, you had enough for a car. If you had a few hundred, you had enough for a house.

I don't have a problem with that per se. The difference for me is that I need to believe that there's something tangible on offer in whatever I stick a few quid in. If the music stops, I don't want to be holding muck. As an example, I'm currently (slightly) underwater on my BTC holding. However, my understanding of the project is that its solid and I'll weather it out as there's something tangible there. I also have $ in a couple of projects where there are certain metrics to be met - and it's all or nothing...ergo...they don't meet those metrics, my investment will be zero. They do - and we go the opposite direction. More power to you if this works for you but I couldn't back stuff that I feel is fundamentally unsound and doesn't have a fighting chance of making it.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

It's not a "strategy" as such. If BTC goes to 100k, you will be thinking of selling some.

Of course I will. I've always been of the belief that I'd like nothing better but that bitcoin (and other crypto projects with merit) steadily increase in value. However, that's not the way this rolls. I was never interested in this type of speculation but if we go through these waves of over-exhuberence (as in 2017) or the market drives up in what appears to be an unnaturally rapid way (2019), of course I'll pull my funds.

I get that the incredibly euphoric points in market cycles are easy to spot for those that follow the space very closely. What I wouldn't be comfortable with is taking positions in projects that I don't see any potential or merit in. This is formative so it can go badly wrong with any project. However, with stuff that you form the opinion that its dogcrap from the get go - that kind of increases the risk.

I'm also not sure that you will ever see a repeat of the 2017 boom/bust (to the same extent). Sure, everything is cyclical - and folks might pile in and lose their minds - but I'd expect that it would be a bit of a smarter game than people just picking random coins without some basic form of analysis. But who knows...we'll get to find out i guess.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Made my single biggest one off purchase of Bitcoin today.


28 ish days until the halving, RSI massively oversold.

Dohnjoe

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Made my single biggest one off purchase of Bitcoin today.


28 ish days until the halving, RSI massively oversold.

On behalf of all other BTC holders, thanks for buying and raising the value for all of us.

makeorbrake

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Made my single biggest one off purchase of Bitcoin today.


28 ish days until the halving, RSI massively oversold.

Thank yourself for recognising what's coming down the tracks despite the protests of the flat earthers; for recognising that bitcoin is hard, unconfiscatable money - and being incredibly early in doing so.

As someone who opts for dollar cost averaging, Swan Bitcoin would be ideal for you - if/when it expands to Europe.

q85dw7osi4lebg

makeorbrake wrote: »

Thank yourself for recognising what's coming down the tracks despite the protests of the flat earthers; for recognising that bitcoin is hard, unconfiscatable money - and being incredibly early in doing so.

As someone who opts for dollar cost averaging, Swan Bitcoin would be ideal for you - if/when it expands to Europe.

Had a look there, recognise a few of those involved which is a positive in this case, would be handy if it comes here.

I'm planning on making an identical purchase next Monday / Tuesday and the following also. Basically putting everything else on hold so I can stack as much before the halving (despite knowing prices can tumble). I'll get back to the usual purchases shortly after that.

Lex Luthor

its going to be a long shot if bitcoin will have a tumble again like it did a month ago

not as severe anyway unless there is more dramatic news than the black swan event thats already happened

Aliens landing maybe could do it, but they could be just here to say they invented bitcoin

I'm happy enough with what I have invested so far, the only thing that might tempt me back in is if it drops below $5k which I think is highly unlikely

I'm just waiting on the right moment to sell my $LTC and take the proceeds and put into $LINK
I've had my time & fill with LTC

Arrival

Lex Luthor wrote: »

its going to be a long shot if bitcoin will have a tumble again like it did a month ago

not as severe anyway unless there is more dramatic news than the black swan event thats already happened

Aliens landing maybe could do it, but they could be just here to say they invented bitcoin

I'm happy enough with what I have invested so far, the only thing that might tempt me back in is if it drops below $5k which I think is highly unlikely

I'm just waiting on the right moment to sell my $LTC and take the proceeds and put into $LINK
I've had my time & fill with LTC

It's not though I would say, there was a bit of a crash and not much upwards movement for at least a few months following the last two halvenings so it'll hopefully be similar this time around for anyone still accruing. The pandemic adds another big strain onto it as well with lots of people liquidating to cover themselves during this downturn

Lex Luthor

Arrival wrote: »

It's not though I would say, there was a bit of a crash and not much upwards movement for at least a few months following the last two halvenings so it'll hopefully be similar this time around for anyone still accruing. The pandemic adds another big strain onto it as well with lots of people liquidating to cover themselves during this downturn

thats what I mean, the pandemic has already had its main effect on the price when it fell to $3.8k

we could have another drop but nowhere near those levels again imo

I still think we are due something this month as BTC usually has about 2-3 major moves every month

Donegal1234

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Made my single biggest one off purchase of Bitcoin today.


28 ish days until the halving, RSI massively oversold.

Hopefully it’s sitting nicely in a trezor/ledger nano.

Arrival

Lex Luthor wrote: »

thats what I mean, the pandemic has already had its main effect on the price when it fell to $3.8k

we could have another drop but nowhere near those levels again imo

I still think we are due something this month as BTC usually has about 2-3 major moves every month

But we're just in the middle of the pandemic though is the thing, so you can't say it's already had its main effect with certainty. It hasn't peaked in so many large countries, including the US, so you have to bear that in mind. We can't speak with certainties about crypto on a good day, during an ongoing pandemic it's even worse again to do so. We're all just along for the roller coaster, observing

q85dw7osi4lebg

Donegal1234 wrote: »

Hopefully it’s sitting nicely in a trezor/ledger nano.

Have multiple Nano S'. Doesn't stay on exchange more than 10 minutes.

Used to have everything on coinbase, living on the edge.

Blueshoe

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Have multiple Nano S'. Doesn't stay on exchange more than 10 minutes.

Used to have everything on coinbase, living on the edge.

https://youtu.be/VkQvRmJwV8I

q85dw7osi4lebg

Blueshoe wrote: »

https://youtu.be/VkQvRmJwV8I

I'm not sure if that's the best or worst YouTube video I've ever seen.



Amazing

JJJJNR

Libra v2 whitepaper...

https://libra.org/en-US/white-paper/

JJJJNR

Kin pumping up almost 100% over two weeks.

Lex Luthor

my new favourite $LINK is doing ok

I've chucked some spare powder into this one when it was about €2.90

jimmii

Lex Luthor wrote: »

my new favourite $LINK is doing ok

I've chucked some spare powder into this one when it was about €2.90

Been on link for a while it's been a fun rollercoaster!

q85dw7osi4lebg

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Made my single biggest one off purchase of Bitcoin today.


28 ish days until the halving, RSI massively oversold.

Matched it again today. Bleurghhh

Deise_2012

Would you guys still wait a little bit before buying crypto? The market is so unpredictable and the price went down 5% yesterday maybe due to the oil fiasco

machiavellianme

5%?
It fluctuates by that every second hour. Wouldn't worry about it.

rapul

Deise_2012 wrote: »

Would you guys still wait a little bit before buying crypto? The market is so unpredictable and the price went down 5% yesterday maybe due to the oil fiasco

Just take a punt at 20 euros worth of bitcoin or ethereum on coinbase and hold onto it a few days and watch it go up and down and see how you feel and then perhaps invest, but only an amount you can afford to loose, the price goes up and down all the time, very volatile

Lex Luthor

Deise_2012 wrote: »

Would you guys still wait a little bit before buying crypto? The market is so unpredictable and the price went down 5% yesterday maybe due to the oil fiasco

bitcoin could sneeze and drop 10%

5% is nothing in crypto

I suggest you buy on the dips or if you dont have the time to watch the market, then average in at various points

I wouldnt go all in on one transaction, vary it at different levels

Have you any specific one in mind?

Thargor

Managed to make an additional 8 Ethereum on the last 2 dips by finally growing a pair, Id be a wealthy man if Id done the same thing every time I knew it was going to drop over the last couple of years :cool:

Im going to be milking it like a cow from now on.

Anjunadeep

nice move in the past hour
BTC back up the 50 DMA

JJJJNR

Thanks Mr President.

Doodee

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.nl&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://nos.nl/artikel/2331431-je-kunt-straks-geld-verdienen-met-je-elektrische-auto.html&usg=ALkJrhhSf7jKzDfNZN-v5_xvGuyzB2nTWw

unkel

Doodee wrote: »

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.nl&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://nos.nl/artikel/2331431-je-kunt-straks-geld-verdienen-met-je-elektrische-auto.html&usg=ALkJrhhSf7jKzDfNZN-v5_xvGuyzB2nTWw

Not sure if this it the right thread, or even the right forum for that

But yeah, that has been on the cards for a long time, is being trialed or in active use all over the western world. Except for Ireland so it seems.

For anyone not bothered to read it: if you have an EV, then the electricity provider will pay you a very high rate for using some electricity from your car at peak times. At night you can load up the car at a very low rate

Same will happen here within 10 years, electricity as high as €1.00 per kWh at peak demand and as low as €0.01 per kWh at surplus renewable generation (think a windy night)

And this Dutch electricity provider is going to use blockchain for this. I guess it will make it open and trackable, but I can't see an awful lot of added value.

makeorbrake

unkel wrote: »

And this Dutch electricity provider is going to use blockchain for this. I guess it will make it open and trackable, but I can't see an awful lot of added value.

It comes into play for micropayments - shuffling payments back and forth. It can provide an easy medium for that specific market. Bring AI into the equation and it can go out and buy and sell throughout the day as and when it makes sense to do so.

Eventually when self driving cars become ubiquitous they can have a wallet and pay for charging, etc using tokens.
It's not clear what blockchain they are referring to in this instance though...?