Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

robindch

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

A good long Extend might work.

Would be fun if WA were not approved by 30th March, that the EU would choose to honor existing arrangements unilaterally until either 1) the UK chose to do otherwise, in which case all treaties lapse as per Article 50 or 2) held a binding national referendum on whether to accept the WA, thus bypassing the hamstrung HoC, or revoke Article 50.

An Ciarraioch

A significant development, as the ERG MP, Daniel Kawczynski, announces he will vote for May's deal next week:

http://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1106902549397938176

Sam Russell

robindch wrote: »

Would be fun if WA were not approved by 30th March, that the EU would choose to honor existing arrangements unilaterally until either 1) the UK chose to do otherwise, in which case all treaties lapse as per Article 50 or 2) held a binding national referendum on whether to accept the WA, thus bypassing the hamstrung HoC, or revoke Article 50.

It would be very stupid for the UK HoC to let the crash-out happen by accident. They have already voted to not allow it, so it should not happen. I would think that they would go for Revoke if it got too close.

In fact, if the EU put conditions on an extension and the WA is not voted through, then I would think revoke is the only option for them.

But stupid is as stupid does.

trellheim

Martin Selmayr tweeting about MEP elections ... it is always fun to watch.

CelticRambler

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A significant development, as the ERG MP, Daniel Kawczynski, announces he will vote for May's deal next week:

http://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1106902549397938176

One Twitter thread does not a revolution make, but the amount of "traitor" reponses to his decision is impressive. :eek: This is the ERG's nightmare - every argument they made against the WA will be a stick for their own supporters to beat them with if they vote in favour of it now.

Sparko

Deleted User wrote: »

In that article that was talked about above, it mentions Barnier being angry because Cox suggested that the UK could go for arbitration the day after Brexit.

It's that sort of unashamed fữckery that is damaging the UK's reputation so badly.

It's baffling how on the UK side they constantly shoot their mouths off to the press, on twitter etc as if they don't realise the EU and the rest of the world can see this.

Enzokk

CelticRambler wrote: »

One Twitter thread does not a revolution make, but the amount of "traitor" reponses to his decision is impressive. :eek: This is the ERG's nightmare - every argument they made against the WA will be a stick for their own supporters to beat them with if they vote in favour of it now.

It will take some climb down from those MPs to explain to an irrational base that they have done the right thing. I will not feel sorry for them though. They have made their beds and they now have to lie in them. Good luck in trying to defend that decision.

trellheim

May still thinks she will get it through on the third round.

robindch

Sam Russell wrote: »

It would be very stupid for the UK HoC to let the crash-out happen by accident. They have already voted to not allow it, so it should not happen.

Unfortunately, it's insufficient for the HoC to vote not to allow a crash-out, since the HoC also needs to vote to do something to avoid it.

As somebody pointed out, the HoC can no more vote not to crash-out than the Titanic could vote for the iceberg not to crash into it.

marno21

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A significant development, as the ERG MP, Daniel Kawczynski, announces he will vote for May's deal next week:

http://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1106902549397938176

The responses to this and other of his Tweets are just downright bizarre coming from a neutral, non-UK point of view.

"You will lose your seat in the next election unless you do your utmost to push the policies that will do the most damage to the social and economic future of this country"

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1106946793097646081


It's a minor point but I also raised an eyebrow at that statement. Ireland is not a "State", it's supposed to be a sovereign country.

I wouldn't mind if he started acting more like the leader of a sovereign country rather than a mouthpiece for Brussels all the time. :rolleyes: He can do that and still protect Ireland's position.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Ireland is not a "State", it's supposed to be a sovereign country.

You might want to reread the constitution:

THE STATE

ARTICLE 4

The name of the State is Éire, or, in the English language, Ireland.

ARTICLE 5

Ireland is a sovereign, independent, democratic state.

ARTICLE 6

1 All powers of government, legislative, executive and judicial, derive, under God, from the people, whose right it is to designate the rulers of the State and, in final appeal, to decide all questions of national policy, according to the requirements of the common good.

2 These powers of government are exercisable only by or on the authority of the organs of State established by this Constitution.

Enzokk

marno21 wrote: »

The responses to this and other of his Tweets are just downright bizarre coming from a neutral, non-UK point of view.

"You will lose your seat in the next election unless you do your utmost to push the policies that will do the most damage to the social and economic future of this country"

This is the problem when politicians sell leaving as the promised lands and they lambaste her deal as the worst ever. They probably knew they weren't going to vote to leave without a deal and was hoping for a some compromise from the EU that they would claim as a victory. They misjudged the negotiations and where and when those compromises would come. Now when they do the sensible thing and vote to leave with a deal it is a total betrayal, according to their own words.

All the talk about £39bn and how going on WTO would be fine, now they are showing themselves to be liars and charlatans and I predict that UKIP will take a lot of the Conservative votes in the next election if they do go for her deal. They have convinced a lot of people that leaving without a deal is not just the right thing to do but the only thing.

Working class heroes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1106946793097646081


It's a minor point but I also raised an eyebrow at that statement. Ireland is not a "State", it's supposed to be a sovereign country.

I wouldn't mind if he started acting more like the leader of a sovereign country rather than a mouthpiece for Brussels all the time. :rolleyes: He can do that and still protect Ireland's position.

I’d say you are in a very small minority of people with that view. IMO.

Kermit.de.frog

Working class heroes wrote: »

I’d say you are in a very small minority of people with that view. IMO.

We are either an independent country or we are not.

If we are an independent country then he should be acting as the head of government for that sovereign country, not as rightly pointed out some regional state governor.

They can do that and it won't effect one iota our negotiating position.

My point is the government seem to be bending too far, in my opinion, in the direction of public subservience than they ought to.

Working class heroes

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are either an independent country or we are not.

If we are an independent country then he should be acting as the head of government for that sovereign country, not as rightly pointed out some regional state governor.

They can do that and it won't effect one iota our negotiating position.

My point is the government seem to be bending too far, in my opinion, in the direction of public subservience than they ought to.

As rightly pointed out by who?

Kermit.de.frog

Working class heroes wrote: »

As rightly pointed out by who?

By observers in Britain as the tweet demonstrates.

They are right, though few here would admit it, that there is a fine line between the EU being useful and practical in these negotiations for Ireland and being detrimental and embarrassing.

I think we are verging in to the latter recently.

We don't have to have leaders sucking up this much to Brussels (and that's exactly what it is). It's not going to change the reality on the ground that Ireland is the EU member country and the UK is the country leaving.

Call me Al

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

A significant development, as the ERG MP, Daniel Kawczynski, announces he will vote for May's deal next week:

http://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1106902549397938176

In a different tweet BBCSunPolMidlands quotes Kawcznski' s change-of-vote statement talking about how the UK could now attract other unhappy EU member countries into developing a trading partnership alternative to the EU.

funkey_monkey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

By observers in Britain as the tweet demonstrates.

Do you care what the Brits think?

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

By observers in Britain as the tweet demonstrates.

They are right, though few here would admit it, that there is a fine line between the EU being useful and practical in these negotiations for Ireland and being detrimental and embarrassing.

I think we are verging in to the latter recently.

We don't have to have leaders sucking up this much to Brussels (and that's exactly what it is). It's not going to change the reality on the ground that Ireland is the EU member country and the UK is the country leaving.

Get a hold of yourself. Ireland's interests are impacting all of Europe right now, and for such a tiny country, it's admirable our concerns are being heard and appreciated. Those countries will suffer because of this island by the looks of it.

Ireland is a sovereign country, whatever that means in the 21st century, I'm not sure. But we can do what we like. Our people are behind the EU, and with the UK openly disregarding the impact its actions could have on the Good Friday Agreement at the moment, we couldn't possibly dream of a better scenario to be in. 400m+ government's have our back.

Capt'n Midnight

Call me Al wrote: »

In a different tweet BBCSunPolMidlands quotes Kawcznski' s change-of-vote statement talking about how the UK could now attract other unhappy EU member countries into developing a trading partnership alternative to the EU.

So they'd build their own EFTA with coke and implement a ban on immigrants who'll do jobs the locals won't ?



And what happens if Turkey wants to join ?

It's got a higher population than the UK so would take a majority of any seats. Which is exactly why the UK can't join the EFTA.

Imreoir2

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are either an independent country or we are not.

If we are an independent country then he should be acting as the head of government for that sovereign country, not as rightly pointed out some regional state governor.

They can do that and it won't effect one iota our negotiating position.

My point is the government seem to be bending too far, in my opinion, in the direction of public subservience than they ought to.

Since when has the Taoiseach been acting as a regional state governor? Does a play on words in a tweet, highlighting that in the US the regional administrative units are called states, whereas Ireland as an independant soverign country also referes to itself as a state, constitute not understanding the difference?

Seems like a rather foolish take if you ask me.

Junkyard Tom

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

We are either an independent country or we are not.

We are not. No country in the world is independent. Not even North Korea is independent. We are interdependent.

The most powerful person in many countries is the US ambassador. **** that.

Imreoir2

Imreoir2 wrote: »

Since when has the Taoiseach been acting as a regional state governor? Does a play on words in a tweet, highlighting that in the US the regional administrative units are called states, whereas Ireland as an independant soverign country also referes to itself as a state, constitute not understanding the difference?

Seems like a rather foolish take if you ask me.

Ireland, as part of the EU has in reality only limited independence, similar to the states in the USA. The only main difference is that the EU's control over the European member states is not quite as comprehensive as the USA's control over the 50 states, and there is not (yet) a federal government in place.

Igotadose

Again, it's Saturday. Nothing new on Brexit today. 13 days left till crash out. Anyone aware of any activity in Parliament or elsewhere? Saw something on the BBC saying the DUP weren't happy still - so that counts, as no news. I'd expect the parliamentarians to be busily working away on...well...something.

If in the next 2 weeks some catastrophe (environmental, war, whatever), hits the UK and HMG are distracted, they'll still crash out, as far as I can tell.

How the streets around Parliament aren't swarming with protesters is beyond me. Nothing's happening, less than 2 weeks to go!

Junkyard Tom

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland, as part of the EU has in reality only limited independence.

Independence from who? The EU allows us to wield power much greater than we would have if we were 'independent'.

Our insistence that Britain honours its commitments on the backstop would have been ignored only for our leverage as an EU member state.

PeadarCo

Deleted User wrote:

Ireland, as part of the EU has in reality only limited independence, similar to the states in the USA. The only main difference is that the EU's control over the European member states is not quite as comprehensive as the USA's control over the 50 states, and there is not (yet) a federal government in place.

Ireland has complete independence. Ireland can always leave it the country decides to. Now obviously there are consequences as Brexit. Any extra delegation of power to the EU must be approved by the country.

PeadarCo

PeadarCo wrote: »

Ireland has complete independence. Ireland can always leave it the country decides to. Now obviously there are consequences as Brexit. Any extra delegation of power to the EU must be approved by the country.

The Brexit is going well isn't it, Do you think Ireland would get as easy a ride out the door?

Thargor

Deleted User wrote: »

The Brexit is going well isn't it, Do you think Ireland would get as easy a ride out the door?

What are you on about? If we wanted we could trigger article 50 and be gone, we're totally free to do that, any harm that comes from ripping up that many trade agreements and all the other systems laid down over the decades cant be blamed on the EU. Its also not a sign that we have "limited independence".

How do people even think like this?

PeadarCo

Deleted User wrote:

The Brexit is going well isn't it, Do you think Ireland would get as easy a ride out the door?

Ireland and any country can leave the EU whenever they want and there is absolutely nothing that stop the country in question. That's is indepence. Now there are consequences for leaving and the UK is slowly very late in the day beginning to understand them. However if the EU was this superstate that countries had to give up their independence to join leaving would be very hard/impossible. With the EU it's very very easy to leave, just trigger article 50 and after a maximum of 2 years you are out.

Robert McGrath

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The Brexit is going well isn't it, Do you think Ireland would get as easy a ride out the door?

Just because the UK are making a complete balls of it doesn’t mean it’s not possible to leave the EU!

Tell me what the mechanism would be for Texas or California to secede from the USA?

Thargor

Thargor wrote: »

What are you on about? If we wanted we could trigger article 50 and be gone, we're totally free to do that, any harm that comes from ripping up that many trade agreements and all the other systems laid down over the decades cant be blamed on the EU. Its also not a sign that we have "limited independence".

How do people even think like this?

If the UK was not leaving, what would you do about the NI border?

With the UK already out, then it should be easier.

An Ciarraioch

Robert McGrath wrote: »

Just because the UK are making a complete balls of it doesn’t mean it’s not possible to leave the EU!

Tell me what the mechanism would be for Texas or California to secede from the USA?

It would appear to require the approval either of Congress or two-thirds of states:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/27/so-you-want-to-secede-from-the-u-s-a-four-step-guide/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.78945c5efb51

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If the UK was not leaving, what would you do about the NI border?

With the UK already out, then it should be easier.

Mobile wouldn't allow me to view what your a moderator of but it's perplexing because your points today have been illegible.

I actually don't understand the position you are trying to take...

20silkcut

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The Brexit is going well isn't it, Do you think Ireland would get as easy a ride out the door?

Brexit would have been very straightforward only for the border in Ireland.
If Ireland and Britain wanted to leave it would have been straightforward.


If Ireland wanted to leave and Britain stay in. How would that have panned out??? I wonder.

Probably pretty much the same way as the Lisbon treaty vote.

McGiver

Capt'n Midnight wrote:

It's got a higher population than the UK so would take a majority of any seats. Which is exactly why the UK can't join the EFTA.

There's no seats allocated by population in EFTA. They make decisions unanimously and each member has the same weight of the vote i.e. one vote each regardless of the population. Which means that UK's vote would have the same weight as the Iceland's with its population being equivalent that of Dorset(shire). That wouldn't surely go well with the English folks, Brexiteers and remainers alike. That's why UK can't join the EFTA.

Nody

listermint wrote: »

Mobile wouldn't allow me to view what your a moderator of but it's perplexing because your points today have been illegible.

Home Appliances as reference but as for any mod (inc. me) outside their specific forums they are simply a normal users with a bolded user name (in most cases); nothing more.

An Ciarraioch

DUP want a seat at the table in trade talks! Meanwhile, parties have been officially told to prepare for European elections:

http://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1107037319863980032

An Ciarraioch

http://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1107051005521420296

Nody

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

http://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1107051005521420296

Have to say I'm scratching my head on number 1; why would EU treat NI differently if UK is part of the same CU? I can't even figure out how or what they could do as most ideas I can come up with would be blatant WTO breaches.

Number 2; sure promise it away but next government is highly unlikely to be dependent on DUP so that's basically asking for something which they will never get in practice once it matters but I guess the two combined creates a nice ladder to climb down on for the third vote.

gooch2k9

Nicola Sturgeon is going to be delighted if that happens. DUP aren't only furthering Irish unity, but Scottish independence.

Water John

I suppose they'll ask Nicola along too.
They want to be regarded as just another part of the UK.
'All the animals are equal but some are more equal than others.'

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

Have to say I'm scratching my head on number 1; why would EU treat NI differently if UK is part of the same CU? I can't even figure out how or what they could do as most ideas I can come up with would be blatant WTO breaches.

Number 2; sure promise it away but next government is highly unlikely to be dependent on DUP so that's basically asking for something which they will never get in practice once it matters but I guess the two combined creates a nice ladder to climb down on for the third vote.

Well number one and two seem linked as it seems to me that the DUP still believe the unicorns is out there in terms of Brexit. It seems a non-runner to me, then again I am not desperate like May so I think this will be given the go-ahead before a row back as the this would surely be close to a breach of the GFA and not showing one party any favourable treatment (or something like that according to the spirit of the GFA).

hotmail.com

Having the DUP involved in any future negotiations will be met with anger among the Nationalist community.

listermint

hotmail.com wrote: »

Having the DUP involved in any future negotiations will be met with anger among the Nationalist community.

It won't happen anyway so no point discussing it

Strazdas

Nody wrote: »

Have to say I'm scratching my head on number 1; why would EU treat NI differently if UK is part of the same CU? I can't even figure out how or what they could do as most ideas I can come up with would be blatant WTO breaches.

Number 2; sure promise it away but next government is highly unlikely to be dependent on DUP so that's basically asking for something which they will never get in practice once it matters but I guess the two combined creates a nice ladder to climb down on for the third vote.

The 'customs union' is only intended to be temporary, a stopgap arrangement. If the DUP are insisting there must be an all UK CU for good, it would mean GB (ie. UK) couldn't actually leave this temporary customs union (because of the Irish backstop).

Nody

Strazdas wrote: »

The 'customs union' is only intended to be temporary, a stopgap arrangement. If the DUP are insisting there must be an all UK CU for good, it would mean GB (ie. UK) couldn't actually leave this temporary customs union (because of the Irish backstop).

But that's my point on number 1; if UK and NI is in a single CU why would EU treat NI differently to mainland UK? Sure 2 makes sense as that will define the future setup and DUP don't want NI to be treated differently (even though in practice the new government after the GE when ever it is will simply ignore them) but that different treatment would only come after UK left the CU.

Overall I can only see number 1 and 2 in practice as an excuse to climb down on their previous claims towards voters. But number 1 simply makes zero sense in all ways; 2 do theoretically have a reason behind it at least.

robindch

Today, Farage started his 435-km (270m in miles sterling) "Brexit Betralay" walk from Sunderland to London in the wind, the rain, beside a cliff and with something between 65 and 70 people taking part.

Hard to know which part failed the hardest - the dreadful weather, the miserable turnout or the troll lorries circling Farage

But for clarity, Greg Jenner's tweet is going to be hard to beat:

https://twitter.com/greg_jenner/status/1106937127705677824

Imreoir2

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland, as part of the EU has in reality only limited independence, similar to the states in the USA. The only main difference is that the EU's control over the European member states is not quite as comprehensive as the USA's control over the 50 states, and there is not (yet) a federal government in place.

Ireland, just like the UK has maintained full independance as a member state of the EU. There seems to be a misaprehension that the growing interdependance of nations as a result of globalisation and the rules based order that nations have chosen to create somehow reduces the independance of nations, but it does not. Circumstances dictate that membership of the EU is in our national interest, and so we remain. Should circumstances change, and should membership of the EU become detremental to our national interest, we can choose to leave.

There is a fundemental difference between the position of Ireland within the EU and the position of a US state. Ireland is a member of the Union by choice, has an equal say in the running of the union with every other member and can leave by choice at any time. The last time a state tried to leave the US, their leaders eventually found themselves in prision with the threat of execution for treason over their heads.

Spanish Eyes

It is a sad indictment on the uk really.

They had no clue what they were actually voting for apart for a visceral thing.

So here we are. Extensions and so on.

I honestly cannot get my head around it TBH.