Werewolf - Mario vs Sonic - NEXT LEVEL

Nigel WW

I like the rationale of getting rid of one team, I hadn’t thought of that, I’d looked at them as voting blocks.

The problem is that I can’t be certain of who to Lynch after Isla and Conor

I believe Jake and Riona, so it’s a toss up between Wini and Gerti, my gut says Wini

The problem with yer group is that if we think yer Shaman has the convert then he most likely went with someone he knows, in particular someone who’s after him. He’s unlikely to have gone for Clodagh or Mary, they were 50/50 to be lynched anyway. So it’s one of what I’ll call yer core group. As someone said earlier that means we can trust yer core as a group but as individuals one of you is a lying turncoat b@stard

So if ye think trying to eliminate one team is the way to go (I’d agree) I’d suggest Mushroom wolves might be easier to eliminate fully

Nigel WW

I should also say I’m believing Jake as Yoshi, I suspected he was good before he said it and his breadcrumbs story is believable, if he’s had the foresight to do that as a wolf then I take my hat off

Phil WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

So if ye think trying to eliminate one team is the way to go (I’d agree) I’d suggest Mushroom wolves might be easier to eliminate fully

Saying this respectfully, but the vibe I'm getting is that the Mushroom goodies don't have as strong a lock on their villains as the Sonic goodies do?

Like, you're saying "your gut", but when it comes to Steve, and then Clodagh, it's beyond a "gut feeling", I reckon....

Jake WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

I thought she was a wolf doing a task if I'm honest, it was the right course of action to lynch her. I'd have killed her Sunday if I was on your island

I just couldn't believe a wolf would act like that.

Mary WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

I like the rationale of getting rid of one team, I hadn’t thought of that, I’d looked at them as voting blocks.

The problem is that I can’t be certain of who to Lynch after Isla and Conor

I believe Jake and Riona, so it’s a toss up between Wini and Gerti, my gut says Wini

The problem with yer group is that if we think yer Shaman has the convert then he most likely went with someone he knows, in particular someone who’s after him. He’s unlikely to have gone for Clodagh or Mary, they were 50/50 to be lynched anyway. So it’s one of what I’ll call yer core group. As someone said earlier that means we can trust yer core as a group but as individuals one of you is a lying turncoat b@stard

So if ye think trying to eliminate one team is the way to go (I’d agree) I’d suggest Mushroom wolves might be easier to eliminate fully

Not a usual Shaman power from games I've played. Correct me if I'm wrong but that is usual a task competed type of reward.


Interesting for you to paint it that way about me an Clodagh too. Haven't seen anyone from Sonic painting it that way. Yes that might make me more likely to be a convert because I'd wager (and based off the calls for Clodagh to be next in line to be lynched after Steve) I'm less suspect of being a wolf.



Otherwise in terms of what your saying, surely yeah the less teams of Baddies we have the better

Desmond WW

Phil, can you run your day one tasks by me again. Is it likely that your nemesis had the same?

Riona WW

I have my vote in for Steve. Are we bothering with ffa, as it seems we’re pretty much all agreed?

Nigel WW

@Mary that’s what I gathered from yer discussions, take it up with the sonic team if you’ve an issue

@Phil our three wolves are contained in the group of Isla, Conor, Wini and Gerti

I would Lynch them in that order. If Isla is a wolf then we can 100% confirm that Jake is telling the truth and leave us with high certainty of Wini over Gerti

Mary WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

@Mary that’s what I gathered from yer discussions, take it up with the sonic team if you’ve an issue

I have no problems with the Sonic Team. This is them on the last page of this thread.

Gabriel WW wrote: »

I don't agree with scripting things for days in advance but there's no harm in planning for after we lynch Steve (I can only hope that the Mushroom Island/Thread) agrees to that. I don't know why Vernon thinks Isla should go before Clodagh though. Clodagh is pretty much the consensus third wolf from Sonic island. Surely we'd want to remove the three originals first. If that's the whole team, it means we reduce the kill rate. If not, then we know that Liam/Clodagh/Steve got the convert.

Desmond WW wrote: »

The convert happened after Liam was lynched and we've had Steve and Clodagh lined up for ages. Why would wolves convert from our two next picks?

You'd be more suspicious of people trying to save those two to be honest.

Gabriel WW wrote: »

I'm saying that Liam/Steve/Clodagh are a team. Clodagh is the only doubt there but I'm going with her being a wolf. If we get rid of those three then we might have removed a wolf team. If we haven't removed a team it means the three (two since Liam shuffled off this mortal coil) of them got to choose the convert, not that Steve or Clodagh was the convert.

Phil WW wrote: »

Saying this respectfully, but the vibe I'm getting is that the Mushroom goodies don't have as strong a lock on their villains as the Sonic goodies do?

Like, you're saying "your gut", but when it comes to Steve, and then Clodagh, it's beyond a "gut feeling", I reckon....

does not seem 50/50 to me. strange representation.

Phil WW

Desmond WW wrote: »

Phil, can you run your day one tasks by me again. Is it likely that your nemesis had the same?

Day One was 15 posts, an FFA and get at least one vote in the lynch. Given me and Wario were "competing", and I got a reward, I'd lean more towards Wario failing the task IF it was the same thing. Or, at least, if it was a "competition", I beat him. He could have had the same; afterall, all three points are things everyone should be doing anyway, really. But he also could have been different.

For the record, I won't be detailing what happened with me and Mario this morning, cause it can act as a shibboleth for us now.

Winifred WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

I like the rationale of getting rid of one team, I hadn’t thought of that, I’d looked at them as voting blocks.

The problem is that I can’t be certain of who to Lynch after Isla and Conor

I believe Jake and Riona, so it’s a toss up between Wini and Gerti, my gut says Wini

The problem with yer group is that if we think yer Shaman has the convert then he most likely went with someone he knows, in particular someone who’s after him. He’s unlikely to have gone for Clodagh or Mary, they were 50/50 to be lynched anyway. So it’s one of what I’ll call yer core group. As someone said earlier that means we can trust yer core as a group but as individuals one of you is a lying turncoat b@stard

So if ye think trying to eliminate one team is the way to go (I’d agree) I’d suggest Mushroom wolves might be easier to eliminate fully

I agree but start with Gertrude, it's actually ridiculous at this stage how she's getting away with it. I know you don't trust me from above but the below need to go

I'll stick to what I said earlier
Gertie
Isla
Conor

3 wolves in those 3

Vernon WW

Ok so, I'm back online and it's time for...

Some Basic Wagonomics!!

So I don't contradict myself, here's what I already said:

Isla riding high on both wagons definitely makes her most likely to be a wolf. Conor voting on wagon on Sunday with Isla but off wagon on Monday looks like they tried to save Winifred.

Now I'm going to take roles out of this and focus on pure hard factual data which the votes provide us.


Night 1 Mushroom Kingdom:

Lynch Vote Results

Doris (3) – Eva WW, Isla WW, Conor WW
Winifred (2) – Jake WW, Gertrude WW
Eva (1) – Riona WW
Conor (1) – Nigel WW
Derry (1) – Doris WW

Did not vote: Derry WW, Winifred WW


So first, two non-voters out of 10 is not ideal Particularly when one is second highest wagon.

If Winnie was in danger as a wolf you'd have to think she would have self pressed onto Doris, her wolfmates would be screaming at her to do so. So that's pro village.

Then again, you have to think that the wolves know each other's names wherever they communicate. So, with two votes on Winnie, Isla and Conor look dodgy here with all three still alive.

Jake and Gertie on the counter wagon to a villager look ok here, depending on the alignment of Winifred. But minimally one, if not all three of Isla, Conor and Winnie have to be a wolf given the make up of the remaining Shroomies.

Doris not self pressing is odd here, but perhaps it came as a shock. Nigel avoiding the wagons is a wolfy look, but we then have to take into account the claims. I think in honesty this likely paints Winnie as a wolf with her brethren covering her ass as she's off AFK somewhere.

On the off chance that both wolves aren't protecting Winnie, Riona's off wagon vote also looks a little suspect.


Moving on.....

Night 2 Lynching Results

VOTING RESULTS:

Eva - Riona, Winifred, Nigel, Isla, Gertrude
Isla - Jake
Nigel - Eva
Gertrude - Conor


So, runaway lynch, not much data... or is there?

Why is Conor voting on Gertrude way away from the main lynch? Likelihood is that the two wolves are sat on Eva and they don't want all three on her as they know she'll flip green.

So who is voting. Riona in first - can be seen as a village or wolf move as the first vote counts as double in the event of a tie. Clever wolf would vote early and hope their choice is lynched. Winnie next, again could be trying to time the early vote but fell short.

Gertrude hopping on last usually would be seen as a wolf move, but in this game it's actually more villagery imo. Shows she's thinking about her vote as opposed to holding fast. Depends. Wolfy Gertberry likely doesn't care where her vote is on a runaway lynch though, same with the others so the late timings aren't really significant.

Jake being off wagon is wolfy too, another one who could stand back and say 'I told ye she was village' - cos he already knows it. The claim resolves that part for now.

The Conor vote really stands out tbh above anything else though. If Conor was town though it would look bad for Gertberry Rudeshake.

So based off the above I'd put the following as most likely to be a wolf:

First Tier:
Conor
Winnie
Isla

Second Tier:
Riona
Gertrude

With a question mark over Jake until he's resolved.

Yeah it's not as perfect as I'd like tbh.

Nigel WW

I would argue we’re a lot closer to all three than the Sonic people?

Mary WW

Just voted for Steve in case anyone is asking about timing tomorrow. I doubt I will vote again

Vernon WW

I have to say it would be easier if there was red flip from Shroomie Land. That's basically all conjecture at the moment as all there have been there were green flips.

Nigel WW

@Mary

If I’m wrong I apologise, I’m scanning yer posts, I will take my lead from yer core group

Mary WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

I would argue we’re a lot closer to all three than the Sonic people?

Is that a question?


Unless you have info we don't most sonic people have said Steve, then Clodagh and then unless the convert was for Sonic's team we think we would have a team gone. I don't see such certainty from Mushrooms

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

I would argue we’re a lot closer to all three than the Sonic people?

Mmmmm.... maybe. There's still question marks over Gertie and Riona (and imo Jake but I know not everyone buys that).

We could do with a shot on Steve and lynching one of your lot. Would give me more to work with

Nigel WW

@Vernon
Where do you think the conversion has come? Sonic or Mario

Looking at the two groups

Sonic
One wolf dead
One wolf identified
One wolf fairly well identified - I’ll let ye put a % on it
One wolf completely unknown (is my read)

Mario
No dead wolves
Group of four identified containing three wolves


My biggest problem with going after the sonic people is that I believe the convert is on your side. So we’ll say it’s you converted for argument, you’re going to go along with everything you believed before, you’re going to shop all ur team to try and stay under the radar. It’s going to be very hard to find you

IF you believe the convert is on your side then the smart move is to go after our wolves. Conor, Isla, Wini in that order

Vernon WW

Mary WW wrote: »

Is that a question?


Unless you have info we don't most sonic people have said Steve, then Clodagh and then unless the convert was for Sonic's team we think we would have a team gone. I don't see such certainty from Mushrooms

He's technically right though. There's 7 left from Shroomie Land, and 2 active role claims, which means if both Nidge and Jake are legit then that leaves 3 wolves in five.

Statistically there's a 60% chance of hitting a wolf if we lynch into that grouping.

Nigel WW

If on the off chance Jake isn’t telling the truth then Isla will turn up good

Desmond WW

Winifred WW wrote: »

I agree but start with Gertrude, it's actually ridiculous at this stage how she's getting away with it. I know you don't trust me from above but the below need to go

I'll stick to what I said earlier
Gertie
Isla
Conor

3 wolves in those 3

I'm strong leaning Gerty village, up until the conversion at least.

Winifred WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

I would argue we’re a lot closer to all three than the Sonic people?

I think so too however we've both got a different 3! The other thing is, it's potentially 2 kills or max 3 to eliminate Mario island as opposed to 3 potentially 4 to eliminate Sonic island. We need to reduce the kill rate

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

@Vernon
Where do you think the conversion has come? Sonic or Mario

Looking at the two groups

Sonic
One wolf dead
One wolf identified
One wolf fairly well identified - I’ll let ye put a % on it
One wolf completely unknown (is my read)

Mario
No dead wolves
Group of four identified containing three wolves


My biggest problem with going after the sonic people is that I believe the convert is on your side. So we’ll say it’s you converted for argument, you’re going to go along with everything you believed before, you’re going to shop all ur team to try and stay under the radar. It’s going to be very hard to find you

IF you believe the convert is on your side then the smart move is to go after our wolves. Conor, Isla, Wini in that order

I would tend to think it came from our side as we have (had) a stronger core than ye.

Prior to conversion: Desmond, Phil, myself and Angus were basically lock clear (giving Phil has had no counter to his Sonic claim since day 1).

Now Angus is dead, but that leaves three of us plus one more in Tails.

So I think that it's very likely one of the four of us was converted to create dissension. I know it's not me, and I tend to believe it's not Phil as he's still in contact with Tails and knows about Mario

Having said that I'm still killing Steve tonight. Catch a wolf, kill a wolf, then reassess.

Mary WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

He's technically right though. There's 7 left from Shroomie Land, and 2 active role claims, which means if both Nidge and Jake are legit then that leaves 3 wolves in five.

Statistically there's a 60% chance of hitting a wolf if we lynch into that grouping.

I think there is a better than 60% chance that Steve & Clodagh are wolves but your the stats man


I just have a weird nigle about Nigel. He seems like someone who was converted to our islands wolf team. Trying to get us to focus on their wolves. making it sound like our islanders had me and Clodagh 50/50 when on this thread our islanders were arguing that Clodagh should be next after Steve whilst not mentioning me. Protecting our wolves in effect.

Vernon WW

Mary WW wrote: »

I think there is a better than 60% chance that Steve & Clodagh are wolves but your the stats man


I just have a weird nigle about Nigel. He seems like someone who was converted to our islands wolf team. Trying to get us to focus on their wolves. making it sound like our islanders had me and Clodagh 50/50 when on this thread our islanders were arguing that Clodagh should be next after Steve whilst not mentioning me. Protecting our wolves in effect.

And you might be right. But we'll worry about that later, unless someone has an Uzi no matter who we kill tonight won't reduce the kill rate tomorrow.

Still voting Steve to the eternal fires of wolfy hell though

Mary WW

Vernon WW wrote: »

And you might be right. But we'll worry about that later, unless someone has an Uzi no matter who we kill tonight won't reduce the kill rate tomorrow.

Still voting Steve to the eternal fires of wolfy hell though

Yeah already voted for Steve.

Nigel WW

@vernon that’s short sighted, no matter where the convert came from he’s going to your team, the widens the net further to catch the last wolf on Evil Sonic. Getting rid of Evil Mario means less kills

@Mary even if I have been converted the above logic holds true. You seem to have taken massive offence to my skimming posts and inadvertently bumping you up the queue, I’ve apologised, for the sake of the village you’d want to get over it and not let it cloud logic

Phil WW

Sorry, who are the confirmed goods from Marioland?

Vernon WW

Nigel WW wrote: »

@vernon that’s short sighted, no matter where the convert came from he’s going to your team, the widens the net further to catch the last wolf on Evil Sonic. Getting rid of Evil Mario means less kills

@Mary even if I have been converted the above logic holds true. You seem to have taken massive offence to my skimming posts and inadvertently bumping you up the queue, I’ve apologised, for the sake of the village you’d want to get over it and not let it cloud logic

There's nothing stopping you whipping up a counter wagon on Isla or Conor

In fact it would be great for my analysis later:D