Super Saturday build up thread

troyzer

I thought it might be nice to get a thread going just for Super Saturday and all of the permutations. The image below stolen from r/rugbyunion sums it up nicely.



Italy are already locked in for the wooden spoon but France are able to finish 4th.

They're currently level with Scotland who also have a -20 to -36 PD advantage over France. So I imagine France will want to win well and hope England do them a favour. Italy will also want to avoid a 5th consecutive Six Nations without a win.

jr86

Basically Wales win, they win the championship and Slam. They lose and England win it, barring an absolute miracle at Twickenham

Interestingly if England had gotten an LBP at wales, we could have a very unusual scenario - if they were to lose to Scotland (with 2 BPs) - where they could still actually win the championship saturday despite winning only 3/5, and two other sides having won 4/5.

swiwi_

troyzer wrote: »

I thought it might be nice to get a thread going just for Super Saturday and all of the permutations. The image below stolen from r/rugbyunion sums it up nicely.



Italy are already locked in for the wooden spoon but France are able to finish 4th.

They're currently level with Scotland who also have a -20 to -36 PD advantage over France. So I imagine France will want to win well and hope England do them a favour. Italy will also want to avoid a 5th consecutive Six Nations without a win.

What about drawn matches??

FrancieBrady

swiwi_ wrote: »

What about drawn matches??

Screen isn't wide enough.

Jump_In_Jack

That chart has ignored possibilities of draws or Wales picking up a try bonus point and a losing bonus point.
Just ignoring the points difference between England and the rest, as it's too much to catch now:

Most likely outcomes now:
1) Wales beats Ireland to win a Grand Slam
2) Wales doesn't beat Ireland (by losing or drawing) and England beats Scotland => England wins the 6Nations

Very unlikely outcomes after that:
3) Wales gets a TBP and draws with Ireland and England doesn't beat Scotland (by losing or drawing) => Wales wins the 6Nations
4) Wales doesn't get a TBP and draws with Ireland and England gets a TBP and draws with Scotland => England wins the 6Nations
5) Wales doesn't get a TBP and draws with Ireland and England doesn't get a TBP and draws with Scotland=> Wales wins the 6Nations

The most unlikely outcomes of all:
6) Ireland gets a TBP and beats Wales and England doesn't beat Scotland (by losing or drawing)=> Ireland win 6Nations
7) Ireland doesn't get a TBP and beats Wales (while keeping our favourable points difference and number of tries scored over Wales) and England gets less than 3 match points => Ireland win 6Nations

stephen_n

swiwi_ wrote: »

What about drawn matches??

There have only been 5 draws in the history of the 6 nations, that would be an unlikely outcome.

Mr Tickle

troyzer wrote: »

How much better would the bottom left Ireland win be than the other one.

troyzer

Mr Tickle wrote: »

How much better would the bottom left Ireland win be than the other one.

If Ireland went over to Cardiff and hockeyed Wales 75-0 I'd name my first born after every single player on the Ireland team.

That's right, a quinquadec-barrelled name.

thegreycity

troyzer wrote: »

If Ireland went over to Cardiff and hockeyed Wales 75-0 I'd name my first born after every single player on the Ireland team.

That's right, a quinquadec-barrelled name.

Treviguple-barreled, no? Can't be forgetting the bench!

arsebiscuits1

troyzer wrote: »

If Ireland went over to Cardiff and hockeyed Wales 75-0 I'd name my first born after every single player on the Ireland team.

That's right, a quinquadec-barrelled name.

That poor girl

razorblunt

Kinghorn, Hogg, and Seymour definitely missing the trip to London.
Ruaridh Jackson called in, the Scots are focked!

troyzer

thegreycity wrote: »

Treviguple-barreled, no? Can't be forgetting the bench!

Why not the wider squad of 37?

Septitriginti-barreled.

jr86

razorblunt wrote: »

Kinghorn, Hogg, and Seymour definitely missing the trip to London.
Ruaridh Jackson called in, the Scots are focked!

I think England will give them a trouncing tbh

They put 60 points on them in the last Twickenham encounter between the sides, and while they'll do very well to replicate that, I just can't see Scotland recovering enough from Saturday - in what was a seriously physical game - to mount up the challenge needed.

England threw the ball about very well, and mixed up their attack very well on Saturday, and with guys gunning to make one last impression in a competitive international before the RWC, they'll be extremely hungry here regardless of what happens in Cardiff

Add in Scotland's injuries, and the fact their recent record on the last matchday exactly doesn't make for great reading (only scraped past Italy last year, hammered by Ireland in 2015 and 16, and Wales 2014) and its hard to look past a facile England win imo

troyzer

jr86 wrote: »

I think England will give them a trouncing tbh

They put 60 points on them in the last Twickenham encounter between the sides, and while they'll do very well to replicate that, I just can't see Scotland recovering enough from Saturday - in what was a seriously physical game - to mount up the challenge needed.

England threw the ball about very well, and mixed up their attack very well on Saturday, and with guys gunning to make one last impression in a competitive international before the RWC, they'll be extremely hungry here regardless of what happens in Cardiff

Add in Scotland's injuries, and the fact their recent record on the last matchday exactly doesn't make for great reading (only scraped past Italy last year, hammered by Ireland in 2015 and 16, and Wales 2014) and its hard to look past a facile England win imo

England by 20.

Ireland are playing for bragging rights at this point. And as a man heading to Cardiff, nothing would bring me more pleasure than silencing the crowd who came in hoping for a slam and left in third place.

sydthebeat

troyzer wrote: »

Italy are already locked in for the wooden spoon ......
.

i just want to ask a question about this phrase

all my years growing up getting the "wooden spoon" in the then five nations meant not winning any games.
these were the days of no points.. just wins and losses... so teams could win one game and avoid the wooden spoon... while still technically coming last in the group.

nowadays its commonly used to describe the team that comes last ... which is a pity in my opinion as, if it was 20 years ago, italy would have been described as having a chance to avoid the wooden spoon next weekend

razorblunt

jr86 wrote: »

I think England will give them a trouncing tbh

They put 60 points on them in the last Twickenham encounter between the sides, and while they'll do very well to replicate that, I just can't see Scotland recovering enough from Saturday - in what was a seriously physical game - to mount up the challenge needed.

England threw the ball about very well, and mixed up their attack very well on Saturday, and with guys gunning to make one last impression in a competitive international before the RWC, they'll be extremely hungry here regardless of what happens in Cardiff

Add in Scotland's injuries, and the fact their recent record on the last matchday exactly doesn't make for great reading (only scraped past Italy last year, hammered by Ireland in 2015 and 16, and Wales 2014) and its hard to look past a facile England win imo

I just can't see how their backrow and centers will get any sort of parity.
Cockansiga on the wing too is a recipe for disaster for them.

Former Former

sydthebeat wrote: »

i just want to ask a question about this phrase

all my years growing up getting the "wooden spoon" in the then five nations meant not winning any games.
these were the days of no points.. just wins and losses... so teams could win one game and avoid the wooden spoon... while still technically coming last in the group.

nowadays its commonly used to describe the team that comes last ... which is a pity in my opinion as, if it was 20 years ago, italy would have been described as having a chance to avoid the wooden spoon next weekend

Wooden spoon = finishing last

Whitewash = losing all games

sydthebeat

Former Former wrote: »

Wooden spoon = finishing last

Whitewash = losing all games

i know what the common use of the term is these days.. i was describing what it used to be used as back in the 5 nations days

edit: i see my understanding still holds in France ie you only get the spoon if youve been whitewashed

locum-motion

Mr Tickle wrote: »

How much better would the bottom left Ireland win be than the other one.

Infinitely!

troyzer

There are a lot of nervous Welsh fans on Gwlad.

swiwi_

stephen_n wrote: »

There have only been 5 draws in the history of the 6 nations, that would be an unlikely outcome.

stephen_n

swiwi_ wrote: »

Well Ireland have never won in Cardif under Joe, but they’ve never lost on the final day of the 6 nations under him either. Yes there’s a chance :pac:

joseywhales

what is if wales lose with two bonus points,ireland get no bp and england lose?

troyzer

joseywhales wrote: »

what is if wales lose with two bonus points,ireland get no bp and england lose?

Assuming England didn't get a bonus point, it would come down to points difference between us and Wales where they are 12 ahead.

Seeing as how it's impossible to close that gap in a scenario where Wales gets a losing bonus, Wales would win.

Jump_In_Jack

troyzer wrote: »

Assuming England didn't get a bonus point, it would come down to points difference between us and Wales where they are 12 ahead.

Seeing as how it's impossible to close that gap in a scenario where Wales gets a losing bonus, Wales would win.

Actually, 12 points difference is a gap that can be closed while conceding a losing bonus point (winning by 7 points or less).
If Ireland win by 6 our PD goes up by 6 and Wales' goes down by 6, resulting in a 12 point swing, where we'd be level on PD.
The next criteria is tries scored, Ireland have 4 tries scored more than Wales as it stands, so it's extremely unlikely that Wales could score 4 tries more than Ireland and still lose by 6 points.

If Ireland win by 7 points Ireland would have a favourable PD which would win Ireland the 6 Nations regardless of Wales getting 2 bonus points.

I'd covered this in an earlier post:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=109647461&postcount=5

troyzer

Jump_In_Jack wrote: »

Actually, 12 points difference is a gap that can be closed while conceding a losing bonus point (winning by 7 points or less).
If Ireland win by 6 our PD goes up by 6 and Wales' goes down by 6, resulting in a 12 point swing, where we'd be level on PD.
The next criteria is tries scored, Ireland have 4 tries scored more than Wales as it stands, so it's extremely unlikely that Wales could score 4 tries more than Ireland and still lose by 6 points.

If Ireland win by 7 points Ireland would have a favourable PD which would win Ireland the 6 Nations regardless of Wales getting 2 bonus points.

I'd covered this in an earlier post:
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=109647461&postcount=5

My head hurts.

sydthebeat

sydthebeat wrote: »

i just want to ask a question about this phrase

all my years growing up getting the "wooden spoon" in the then five nations meant not winning any games.
these were the days of no points.. just wins and losses... so teams could win one game and avoid the wooden spoon... while still technically coming last in the group.

nowadays its commonly used to describe the team that comes last ... which is a pity in my opinion as, if it was 20 years ago, italy would have been described as having a chance to avoid the wooden spoon next weekend

Tell me gramps, how did the wooden spoon work back in black&white? Whoever lost on the last day?

Henry Ford III

troyzer wrote: »

There are a lot of nervous Welsh fans on Gwlad.

Wow. I think ultimately that will be the difference.

troyzer

Henry Ford III wrote: »

Wow. I think ultimately that will be the difference.

It's crucial of course.

Seriously though, a few of my Welsh fans are saying the same. They're not confident at all.

Jump_In_Jack

sydthebeat wrote: »

i just want to ask a question about this phrase

all my years growing up getting the "wooden spoon" in the then five nations meant not winning any games.
these were the days of no points.. just wins and losses... so teams could win one game and avoid the wooden spoon... while still technically coming last in the group.

nowadays its commonly used to describe the team that comes last ... which is a pity in my opinion as, if it was 20 years ago, italy would have been described as having a chance to avoid the wooden spoon next weekend

Just reading back on a few websites about the 90s etc, and where teams won a match but finished bottom of the table, based on points difference, they were awarded the wooden spoon.
So for example, a year where two teams only won 1 match, it was points scored versus points conceded which decided who got the wooden spoon.
I think it has always been the lowest performer, not necessarily the team that loses all their matches.
In other words, there is a wooden spoon every year, not just on years when a team loses all their matches.
I think to lose all the matches back in the 90's was also called a whitewash.

Digifriendly

sydthebeat wrote: »

i just want to ask a question about this phrase

all my years growing up getting the "wooden spoon" in the then five nations meant not winning any games.
these were the days of no points.. just wins and losses... so teams could win one game and avoid the wooden spoon... while still technically coming last in the group.

nowadays its commonly used to describe the team that comes last ... which is a pity in my opinion as, if it was 20 years ago, italy would have been described as having a chance to avoid the wooden spoon next weekend

I maybe wrong but all the time I have been watching 5N/6N 'wooden spoon' meant finishing last and 'whitewash' meant losing every game.