Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

GM228

Confirmed by Norwegian:-

https://twitter.com/Fly_Norwegian/status/1105467984590573573?s=19

LeakRate

Norwegian Providence and Newburgh canx from DUB today

kippy

cnocbui wrote: »

Other countries have grounded it because they probably have been advised by back channels of the flight data recorder findings. You wouldn't believe how quickly they actually get the contents off those after recovering them.

Agree with this observation.....

PCros

As Ryanair were only planning on flying the Max's out of Stansted do you think they will swap them up and fly them out of another city that hasn't banned them by then? Or are we looking at a worldwide ban by April anyway?

Can't see MOL letting aircraft sit parked up.

troyzer

PCros wrote: »

As Ryanair were only planning on flying the Max's out of Stansted do you think they will swap them up and fly them out of another city that hasn't banned them by then? Or are we looking at a worldwide ban by April anyway?

Can't see MOL letting aircraft sit parked up.

Looks like there will be a worldwide ban in the next few days. It might be sorted by the time Ryanair gets them.

GM228

The big question is with so many groundings how are the airlines in terms of a stand in/hire in, no doubt some can manage, but other airlines will be in chaos.

murphaph

GM228 wrote: »

The problem is that due to the way the statistics are computed the 737MAX has probably become the second deadliest fatal flight statistic after the Concorde which as we know only had the one fatal flight.

We also know what caused that crash and in fact steps were taken to remedy the weakness. We don't actually know if the 737 MAX has an inherent flaw. If and when the issue is resolved or at least satisfactorily explained, I will not be flying on them.

Concorde was also grounded of course while the issues were resolved.

faoiarvok

GM228 wrote: »

Confirmed by Norwegian:-

https://twitter.com/Fly_Norwegian/status/1105467984590573573?s=19

“Following recommendations by European aviation authorities”?

Have EASA issued something?

troyzer

What, if anything, does this mean for the Neo?

plodder

The other thing to consider is that the Lion Air plane was known to be "unairworthy" before the fatal accident. One would like to think that reputable airlines don't allow their craft to fly in that situation.

GM228

faoiarvok wrote: »

“Following recommendations by European aviation authorities”?

Have EASA issued something?

Rumours doing the rounds of action very soon by the EASA.

errlloyd

Girlfriend's flight from NYC to Dublin cancelled.

cnocbui

I saw a poll on Twitter:

Would you rather fly cross country on a:


737 Max 38%
DC-10 16%
de Havilland Comet 12%
Hang glider 34%

I'll take the DC10 because with a glide ratio of 10:1, the release altitude for the hang glider would be on the edge of space and who want's to spend hours in a pressure suit.

PCros

Taken from a former ET pilot on PPRUNE in relation to the Lion and ET flights. I was actually thinking about this but didn't know how to word it...

Both times the aircraft was in day VMC conditions, both seemingly experienced speeds much higher than what could and should be considered normal for level flight at low altitude, so what gives? I can certainly tell my airspeed by looking out the window, regardless of how many alarms at whatever obscene volume are blaring any time. If the data is to be believed, 330+ knots at around 1000AGL to me means someone forgot the cardinal rule: fly the airplane. Pitch, power, and if possible (it was) look out the damn window!

Thoughts?

errlloyd

Anyone have any suggestions of customer's rights in this sort of cancellation - I've never had a flight cancelled because the plane was grounded before.

Would travel insurance allow her to recoup her losses if she re-booked on Aer Lingus tonight do you reckon?

cnocbui

PCros wrote: »

Taken from a former ET pilot on PPRUNE in relation to the Lion and ET flights. I was actually thinking about this but didn't know how to word it...

Both times the aircraft was in day VMC conditions, both seemingly experienced speeds much higher than what could and should be considered normal for level flight at low altitude, so what gives? I can certainly tell my airspeed by looking out the window, regardless of how many alarms at whatever obscene volume are blaring any time. If the data is to be believed, 330+ knots at around 1000AGL to me means someone forgot the cardinal rule: fly the airplane. Pitch, power, and if possible (it was) look out the damn window!

Thoughts?

He's spot on. I think in maybe 10 years or so, pilots may start using a VR headset to get them out of the box that is a modern cockpit and sit them on the nose of the aircraft - so to speak - so they can get back to 'flying' the planes - at least for takeoffs and landings.

billy few mates

GM228 wrote: »

Confirmed by Norwegian:-

https://twitter.com/Fly_Norwegian/status/1105467984590573573?s=19

"Upmost"...?

PCros

cnocbui wrote: »

He's spot on. I think in maybe 10 years or so, pilots may start using a VR headset to get them out of the box that is a modern cockpit and sit them on the nose of the aircraft - so to speak - so they can get back to 'flying' the planes - at least for takeoffs and landings.

This is surely an issue that needs to be addressed?

Another pilot mentioned that he worries about true experience, and that he has quite a lot of hours but in the last 10,000 or so he has gained less
"true experience".

IITYWYBMAD

PCros wrote: »

Taken from a former ET pilot on PPRUNE in relation to the Lion and ET flights. I was actually thinking about this but didn't know how to word it...

Both times the aircraft was in day VMC conditions, both seemingly experienced speeds much higher than what could and should be considered normal for level flight at low altitude, so what gives? I can certainly tell my airspeed by looking out the window, regardless of how many alarms at whatever obscene volume are blaring any time. If the data is to be believed, 330+ knots at around 1000AGL to me means someone forgot the cardinal rule: fly the airplane. Pitch, power, and if possible (it was) look out the damn window!

Thoughts?

Actually, and without the proper terminology and experience, that was exactly what I was trying to say in my previous posts.

L1011

troyzer wrote: »

What, if anything, does this mean for the Neo?

More sales as airlines get the wobbles over buying Boeing.

Man Vs ManUre

Which would any nervous flyers be more hesitant of right now?? Taking an upcoming journey on a 737-Max regardless of airline?? Or taking a long haul multiple flight trip with Ethiopian airlines?? I have a trip to Kenya with EA in next few weeks. The AA to Mombasa was meant to be on the 737-Max but guess they will still be grounded by time I get there. I flew with EA few times last year and found them to be good. I guess any airline can be unlucky, but maybe still would feel safer on an airline like BA, Emirates or KLM.

Duff

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

Which would any nervous flyers be more hesitant of right now?? Taking an upcoming journey on a 737-Max regardless of airline?? Or taking a long haul multiple flight trip with Ethiopian airlines?? I have a trip to Kenya with EA in next few weeks. The AA to Mombasa was meant to be on the 737-Max but guess they will still be grounded by time I get there. I flew with EA few times last year and found them to be good. I guess any airline can be unlucky, but maybe still would feel safer on an airline like BA, Emirates or KLM.

Ethiopian would have to be up to the same safety standards as any other major airline. I've flown with them twice to LA return over the last 2 years and if the flight was still available now I'd have no hesitation in doing so again. (albeit on a dreamliner) I wouldn't hold it against Ethiopian for a bad batch of MAX8s.

RiseToMe

IAA have suspended departing from or flying through Irish airspace also now

Tenger

theguzman wrote: »

Shouldn't Boeing ultimately be responsible for all this?

Boeing are and will be. However if an airline doesnt want to cancel flights they have to lease hireins aircraft usign their own cash before they can then get Boeing to compensate them. meanwhile they may be losing forward bookings due to uncertainty. Norwegian already have cashflow issues and large debts.

theguzman wrote: »

You'd be surprised at the amount of perfectly serviceable albeit fuel thirsty airliners sitting in Deserts in America which could be put into service again if needed.

I dont think there are 350 suitable aircraft ready to go within 2 months in time for the busy summer season. And the airlines dont own them, the leasing companies do.
While some of those parked aircraft are kept in storage the majority are abandoned for parts retrieval.

errlloyd

So the GF is wondering if she should rebook for tomorrow, or cancel (get a refund) and book a one way on a very expensive flight from AL.

Anyone have a gut feeling on whether this will be a 2 day grounding or a 5 month grounding? Do we think Norwegian will be able to lease other aircraft for these routes any time soon or will those routes be cancelled for the duration of the grounding?

goingnowhere

IAA have banned the MAX from Irish airspace

Unclear if they have suspended the MAX on the EI register

That pretty much blocks anyone trying to cross the Atlantic in a MAX

ED E

errlloyd wrote: »

So the GF is wondering if she should rebook for tomorrow, or cancel (get a refund) and book a one way on a very expensive flight from AL.

Anyone have a gut feeling on whether this will be a 2 day grounding or a 5 month grounding? Do we think Norwegian will be able to lease other aircraft for these routes any time soon or will those routes be cancelled for the duration of the grounding?

LCCs will least be in a position to get new airframes in place I'd suspect.

Tenger

Current B737MAX operators; 59 airlines, 387 airframes
Aerolineas Argentinas (9)
Aeromexico (5)
Air Canada (20)
Air China (14)
Air Italy (5)
American Airlines(24)
Cayman (2)
China Eastern (13)
China Southern (16)
Comair (1)
Copa (5)
Corendon (1)
Eastar Jet (2)
Enter Air (2)
Ethiopian Airlines (5)
Fiji Airways (2)
FlyDubai (14)
Fuzhou (2)
Garuda Indonesia (1)
Gol (6)
Hainan (7)
Icelandair (3)
Jet Airways (6)
Kunming (2)
Lion Air (14)
LOT Polish (5)
Lucky Air (3)
Mauritania Airlines (1)
MIAT Mongolian (1)
Norwegian (18)
Okay Airways (1)
Oman Air (5)
Royal Air Maroc (2)
Shandong (6)
Shanghai Airlines (11)
Shenzhen (5)
SilkAir (5)
Southwest (31)
SpiceJet (7)
Sunwing (3)
S7 (2)
Thai Lion (3)
TUI (11)
Turkish Airlines (7)
United Airlines (12)
WestJet (12)
Xiamen (9)

Current national grounding:
-Australia (no airlines are allowed to operate the plane to & from Australia, impacting Fiji Airways and SilkAir)
-China (no domestic airlines are allowed to operate the plane, impacting Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, Fuzhou, Hainan, Kunming, Lucky Air, Shandong, Shanghai Airlines, Shenzhen, and Xiamen Air)
-Indonesia (no domestic airlines are allowed to operate the plane, impacting Garuda Indonesia and Lion Air)
-Ireland (no airlines are allowed to operate the aircraft into and out of Irish airspace.)
-Malaysia (no airlines are allowed to operate the plane to & from Malaysia)
-Mongolia (no domestic airlines are allowed to operate the plane, impacting MIAT Mongolian)
-Oman (no airlines are allowed to operate the plane to & from Oman, impacting Oman Air)
-Singapore (no airlines are allowed to operate the plane to & from Singapore, impacting SilkAir)
-South Korea (no domestic airlines are allowed to operate the plane, impacting Eastar Jet)
-United Kingdom (no airlines are allowed to operate the plane to & from the UK, impacting Norwegian and TUI)

Current voluntary airline grounding;
Aerolineas Argentinas
Aeromexico
Cayman Airways
Comair
Ethiopian
Gol
Royal Air Maroc




Info from: https://onemileatatime.com/airlines-flying-737-max/

plodder

As if Boeing didn't have enough to deal with ....

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1105468569800839169

and

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1105471621672960000

Irish Steve

PCros wrote: »

Taken from a former ET pilot on PPRUNE in relation to the Lion and ET flights. I was actually thinking about this but didn't know how to word it...

Both times the aircraft was in day VMC conditions, both seemingly experienced speeds much higher than what could and should be considered normal for level flight at low altitude, so what gives? I can certainly tell my airspeed by looking out the window, regardless of how many alarms at whatever obscene volume are blaring any time. If the data is to be believed, 330+ knots at around 1000AGL to me means someone forgot the cardinal rule: fly the airplane. Pitch, power, and if possible (it was) look out the damn window!

Thoughts?

If the aircraft automation is erroneously feeding in a significant nose down trim, the "feel" of the controls may be very misleading, in that the "home" position of the yoke may well be such that the aircraft is in a significant descent, and that sort of incipient error is very hard to recognise and overcome, both mentally and physically, and even more so if there are additional misleading indications on the instruments.

The modern training mantra is to follow the instruments, and there are (too) many pilots who know no other way to fly, which is part of the problem, if for some reason the instruments are giving misleading information, slavishly following them only compounds the problem. Yes, pitch, power and trim should be capable of getting you out of many situations, but if you can't rely on what the instruments are telling you, and you then also have "positional" inner ear and seat of the pants feedback that is misleading, you are in a world of pain very quickly, and if you've never spent time doing a flight with pitch power trim, doing so in an emergency is not going to be an easy learning curve.

A lot of training in the sim is now so structured, there isn't time to "experiment" with the edges of the envelope, in order to know where the real limits of performance are, and in some cases, the automation won't let you go there, which then becomes another two edged sword when those rigid protections are suddenly not working because of a fault somewhere.

When the aircraft is low, that then adds an additional issue, ensuring terrain clearance, and in those sort of circumstances, it is very easy to end up with information overload, if there are multiple warnings and alarms sounding, and the picture on the panel is misleading and does not tie in with what's visible outside of the window, it takes some serious skill and experience to make sense of the confusion and correctly analyse it, and then work out how to correct it, and if the aircraft is low, and close to the ground, the window for safe correction of whatever is wrong can be incredibly small and short.

If you then factor in additional "corrections" from the automation that are not helping, and that the pilots may not have been given adequate training on how those systems work, I can see a very clear avenue for serious confusion and potential for mistakes.

A lot of modern jet pilots have never flown an analog panel piston single engine aircraft solo, the bean counters deemed it inappropriate, but what you learnt in those solo flights was to be a decision maker, because if you didn't make the decision, there was no one else there to help you make it, and failure to make the right timely decision could well be fatal.