Ethiopian Airlines Crash/ B737MAX grounding

Tenger

I'm guessing the compensation to the airlines will be a little more "hush, hush" as it's part of the contract signed between both parties.

smurfjed

It can’t be, Boeing can’t just spend billions on compensation without declaring it to their investors.

Tenzor07

Cleared to fly next week, but with all the mods that have to be done first, plus pilot training plus lack of demand I think it will be at least the summer before passengers get on board a Max in Europe...


https://www.thejournal.ie/boeing-737-max-resume-flying-europe-5329107-Jan2021/

Noxegon

To be honest the way things are going right now I don't expect all that many passengers to get on any aircraft in Europe in the near future...

Irish Steve

Looked at a number of UK destinations to see what's happening.

Next Ryanair to Bristol from Dublin is end of April, and Aer Lingus are not starting that route again until sometime in March.
There are 2 flights a day to Heathrow from Dublin
There are 2 flights a week to Birmingham
There are 2 flights a day to Stansted.
Similar situation for many of the UK destinations, and while I've not looked, I suspect that the same applies to much of Europe.

Hardly surprising, given the restrictions that are applicable on both sides of the Irish Sea, a cheap flight is not so cheap if you have to factor in a couple or 3 PCR tests, and maybe 2 weeks self isolation on returning to Ireland.

Tenger

Irish Steve wrote: »

........

Hardly surprising, given the restrictions that are applicable on both sides of the Irish Sea, a cheap flight is not so cheap if you have to factor in a couple or 3 PCR tests, and maybe 2 weeks self isolation on returning to Ireland.

I was talking to a guy I know before Christmas. Owns his own business (international trade consultancy) and has a very small staff. He has had to travel to the US 6 times this year for work stuff. (All his staff are working from home) Each time he has had to book a test for himself and plan on 2 weeks isolation after coming home.
My missus on the other hand is exempt from the isolation as she is airline crew.

He is quite jealous of the exemption status but then again, we are jealous of his 5 bedroom house in Sandycove!!!

IngazZagni

Irish Steve wrote: »

Looked at a number of UK destinations to see what's happening.

Next Ryanair to Bristol from Dublin is end of April, and Aer Lingus are not starting that route again until sometime in March.
There are 2 flights a day to Heathrow from Dublin
There are 2 flights a week to Birmingham
There are 2 flights a day to Stansted.
Similar situation for many of the UK destinations, and while I've not looked, I suspect that the same applies to much of Europe.

Hardly surprising, given the restrictions that are applicable on both sides of the Irish Sea, a cheap flight is not so cheap if you have to factor in a couple or 3 PCR tests, and maybe 2 weeks self isolation on returning to Ireland.

All of these start dates can and probably will be pushed back every so often as well as cuts in frequencies. As long as the airline cancels more than 2 weeks in advance then the EU261 clause does not apply.

All that said I'd expect to see Ryanair getting their Maxes delivered into Europe starting in a few weeks.

Irish Steve

IngazZagni wrote: »

All of these start dates can and probably will be pushed back every so often as well as cuts in frequencies. As long as the airline cancels more than 2 weeks in advance then the EU261 clause does not apply.

All that said I'd expect to see Ryanair getting their Maxes delivered into Europe starting in a few weeks.

The Max deliveries will be an interesting challenge, they have to be "unstored" before then can come over the pond, I suspect that Ryanair will want to do some local flights before launching on a non stop flight to Dublin, to make sure everything has been shaken down and is working correctly.

Then there will be the issue of having them on the ground here but not necessarily in service, which has implications for maintenance, and they will also have to get crews up to speed with the conversion, I'm not sure how many Max simulators are available "locally", the original certification was a simple paperwork differences box ticking exercise, now, there's sim time involved, and you may be sure that the MCAS system will figure significantly in that scenario, I've not seen a figure yet for how many hours of sim time will be required, which will influence things.

It's unfortunately very clear that this summer is going to be very much not business as normal, I'm glad I'm not in a hot seat having to make decisions about how to open up and when, it's a no win situation right now.

HTCOne

There’s an interesting debate about whether to take them out of storage at all now for Boeing and airlines. If they’re taken out of storage now, there’ll be less of a shortage of engineers to do the work and Boeing gets the aircraft off their property, however in the current environment they’ll just end up mothballed again somewhere else. If they wait for the market to pick up, there’ll be a massive shortage of engineers to do the work, as every other aircraft currently in storage will neef to be brought back to service at the same time, simulators will be fully bookef getting furloughed crew back in the air etc.

Tenzor07

HTCOne wrote: »

There’s an interesting debate about whether to take them out of storage at all now for Boeing and airlines. If they’re taken out of storage now, there’ll be less of a shortage of engineers to do the work and Boeing gets the aircraft off their property, however in the current environment they’ll just end up mothballed again somewhere else. If they wait for the market to pick up, there’ll be a massive shortage of engineers to do the work, as every other aircraft currently in storage will neef to be brought back to service at the same time, simulators will be fully bookef getting furloughed crew back in the air etc.

I'm sure the airlines still have a number of 737 pilots working...albeit just enough to keep their licences, and why not take the opportunity to certify on the Max while they're not busy...

Though yes, the longer they keep them on the ground then the less Max certified engineers will be available to do any work on them...

banie01

BBC running a story today that one of the Boeing Whistleblowers has produced a report very critical of the "early" return to service of the MAX.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55751150

My own stance re: the return to service and indeed the actual validity of the grandfathering in of the MAX have been laid out earlier in the thread and I'm not going to repeat them.
I do however have faith that that the review and (re)certification process that the MAX has been subject to by multiple bodies will at least ensure a level of safety on a par with the NG.
The report by Mr Pierson however seems to squarely point the finger at Boeing's poor QC for the entire shítshow.

Mr Pierson's concerns are supported by the celebrated aviation safety campaigner Captain Chesley Sullenberger.

Best known as "Sully", one of the pilots who safely ditched a crippled and engineless Airbus plane in the Hudson river off Manhattan in 2009, he too believes that modifications to the Max do not go far enough.

He believes changes are needed to warning systems aboard the plane, which were carried over from a previous version of the 737 and are "not up to modern standards".

"Ed Pierson's report is very disturbing, about manufacturing issues in the Boeing factories that go well beyond just the Max, and also affect… the previous version of the 737," says Capt Sullenberger.

"There are many critically important unanswered questions that must be answered.

"Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) must finally become more transparent, and begin to provide information and data, so that independent experts can determine the worthiness of the work that's been done."

banie01

Not directly MAX related, but strongly illustrative of both Boeing's continuing QC issues and their burning through cash.
The accrued charges in particular, should be viewed through the lens of the MAX being their Cash cow and the importance ascribed to getting it up, running and in service at any cost.
The KC-46 programme has now accrued charges of $5.1billion over the contracted price of $4.9billion!
An overspend that Boeing is liable for.

https://twitter.com/TheDEWLine/status/1354481914254684163?s=20

Tenzor07

banie01 wrote: »

Not directly MAX related, but strongly illustrative of both Boeing's continuing QC issues and their burning through cash.
The accrued charges in particular, should be viewed through the lens of the MAX being their Cash cow and the importance ascribed to getting it up, running and in service at any cost.
The KC-46 programme has now accrued charges of $5.1billion over the contracted price of $4.9billion!
An overspend that Boeing is liable for.

Awful news, luckily the Max is approved for flight... Wonder when I can travel on one in Europe..?

Fritzbox

banie01 wrote: »

Not directly MAX related, but strongly illustrative of both Boeing's continuing QC issues and their burning through cash.
The accrued charges in particular, should be viewed through the lens of the MAX being their Cash cow and the importance ascribed to getting it up, running and in service at any cost.
The KC-46 programme has now accrued charges of $5.1billion over the contracted price of $4.9billion!
An overspend that Boeing is liable for.

https://twitter.com/TheDEWLine/status/1354481914254684163?s=20

$5.1 billion may sound bad, but it's actually better than the cost overruns for the A400M suffered by Airbus: 8.4 billion and counting...

https://www.hispanidad.com/confidencial/airbus-vuela-con-turbulencias-buenas-cifras-pero-pone-fin-al-a380-y-las-provisiones-del-a400m-ya-ascienden-a-mas-de-8-800-millones_12007689_102.html

Mind you, the A400M seems to be a far more ambitious project technically, compared to the KC-46, which is basically a rehash of a 40-year-old airliner design.

goingnowhere

Fritzbox wrote: »

Mind you, the A400M seems to be a far more ambitious project technically, compared to the KC-46, which is basically a rehash of a 40-year-old airliner design.

Boeing look a bit stupid now after complaining about the A330 MRTT winning and getting that overturned with a altered spec so they won.

Bet the USAF wish they stuck with the KC45...

Systematic issues, pickleforks, batteries, stuff left in fuel tanks, fasteners...

Good old steam powered KC135 still going, B52 will outlast a human lifespan.

Turbulent Bill

goingnowhere wrote: »

Boeing look a bit stupid now after complaining about the A330 MRTT winning and getting that overturned with a altered spec so they won.

Bet the USAF wish they stuck with the KC45...

Systematic issues, pickleforks, batteries, stuff left in fuel tanks, fasteners...

Good old steam powered KC135 still going, B52 will outlast a human lifespan.

It looks a lot of money now, but I'm guessing Boeing won't be too upset. Tankers are a nice steady earner, and given the KC-135 has lasted 50+ years, they can bank on plenty of KC-46 mid-life upgrades down the line.

HTCOne

Indeed. OEMs don’t make money on building and selling airframes, they make it on engineering support over the lifetime of the airframe.

cnocbui

HTCOne wrote: »

Indeed. OEMs don’t make money on building and selling airframes, they make it on engineering support over the lifetime of the airframe.

The airlines need to encourage Honda to make larger planes then.

AlekSmart

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Awful news, luckily the Max is approved for flight... Wonder when I can travel on one in Europe..?

Patience....give it a little more time ...OR,you could stowaway and hit Stateside

https://simpleflying.com/american-airlines-max-one-month/

American Airlines Operated Over 450 MAX Flights In One Month

:eek::eek::eek:

Here however,it's a April prediction,with Micheal O'Learly strapping on his Helmet & Goggles as the additional seats of the Max fly off the shelves ?

Despite getting the green light from EASA on Wednesday, no European MAX operator has yet laid out plans to resume 737 MAX flights. Ryanair is keen to begin operations with the type as soon as they get their first delivery, initially planned for April 2019.

This is the way to burst out of the Covid miasma...you GO Micheal !!!

Tenzor07

Max is back!

And more flights to come i'm sure...


https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1361963800682000384

LiamaDelta

I was researching some flights on the Ryanair website and noticed in the seat selection part that there is now 198 seats available (in the couple of dummy bookings i made). I know previously FR said that they would inform people in advance if they were flying on the MAX, but there didn't seem to be any note on the booking that I was doing.
I assume FR have just upgraded the booking system to account for 198 seats and will reallocate if it's a 189 plane, though it does seem quite unfair that they don't let you know at the time of booking. If it turns out closer the time that you are on a MAX and you choose to change flights you have very little alternative.

IngazZagni

LiamaDelta wrote: »

I was researching some flights on the Ryanair website and noticed in the seat selection part that there is now 198 seats available (in the couple of dummy bookings i made). I know previously FR said that they would inform people in advance if they were flying on the MAX, but there didn't seem to be any note on the booking that I was doing.
I assume FR have just upgraded the booking system to account for 198 seats and will reallocate if it's a 189 plane, though it does seem quite unfair that they don't let you know at the time of booking. If it turns out closer the time that you are on a MAX and you choose to change flights you have very little alternative.

What routes are these on? I'm not seeing it. Are you sure you aren't just counting 33×6? There's no row 13 and only 3 seats in row 1 on the NG. Their max has 197 seats.

Also I don't believe they ever said they'd inform you of the aircraft as they often don't know themselves what plane is flying where until.a few hours beforehand.

Fritzbox

LiamaDelta wrote: »

I was researching some flights on the Ryanair website and noticed in the seat selection part that there is now 198 seats available (in the couple of dummy bookings i made). I know previously FR said that they would inform people in advance if they were flying on the MAX, but there didn't seem to be any note on the booking that I was doing.
I assume FR have just upgraded the booking system to account for 198 seats and will reallocate if it's a 189 plane, though it does seem quite unfair that they don't let you know at the time of booking. If it turns out closer the time that you are on a MAX and you choose to change flights you have very little alternative.

If you are flying on a MAX you'll be flying on a brand new plane. Any other aircraft could be up to 20 years old. I know which aircraft I'd rather be on board.

Rawr

Fritzbox wrote: »

If you are flying on a MAX you'll be flying on a brand new plane. Any other aircraft could be up to 20 years old. I know which aircraft I'd rather be on board.

In addition, it's probably one of the most scrutinized aircraft in the skys now. All manner of faults found, ironed out and sorted for fear of those faults causing further delay.
Hopeful that Boeing has learned an extremely expensive lesson with this one...

LiamaDelta

IngazZagni wrote: »

What routes are these on? I'm not seeing it. Are you sure you aren't just counting 33×6? There's no row 13 and only 3 seats in row 1 on the NG. Their max has 197 seats.

Also I don't believe they ever said they'd inform you of the aircraft as they often don't know themselves what plane is flying where until.a few hours beforehand.

Ahhh you're right thanks. I had accounted for row 1 but I never realised row 13 was missing, and i've been on more FR flights than I can remember!

CiboC

LiamaDelta wrote: »

Ahhh you're right thanks. I had accounted for row 1 but I never realised row 13 was missing, and i've been on more FR flights than I can remember!

You never notice the '13' thing until you do notice it... I boarded a flight at gate 13 in the airport in Yekaterinburg a few years ago and stopped to take a picture it was so unusual!

goingnowhere

Row 13 is an optional extra on Boeing aircraft. Americans are somewhat obsessed about 13.

Airbus in contrast, its an optional extra to not have a row 13

Tenzor07

goingnowhere wrote: »

Row 13 is an optional extra on Boeing aircraft. Americans are somewhat obsessed about 13.
Airbus in contrast, its an optional extra to not have a row 13

Max-7 is going to be the big seller in the U.S, isn't it the case that anything over 155 pax, i.e. 159 then the operator needs an extra cabin crew member, that will reduce the profits so better to keep it under the level for extra crew..

It isn't going to be a "big" seller but every bit helps. 150 cabin =3 flight Attendants.
It all helps but Boeing is sure to be making very little profit on them and few other than Southwest will use them.
Boeing and suppliers will be happy of the orders and lets them argue that they have a legitimate competitor to the A220.

HTCOne

A319 Neo and 737-7 will not be major sellers (although Southwest are allegedly on the verge of ordering a couple of hundred of them). Generally speaking, shrinks do not perform as well as stretches. The % fuel saved over the larger aircraft is smaller than the number of seats / revenue potential lost, EG a 20% reduction in seat count but a 15% reduction in fuel burn. They are niche aircraft with better range and runway performance bought for certain airfields / routes, or VIP configuration.