2000 Guineas 2019

Andrew00

Yep Gosdens stable staff have certainly piled into Calyx. It won't get 8f just like ten sovereigns

tryfix

Andrew00 wrote: »

Yep Gosdens stable staff have certainly piled into Calyx. It won't get 8f just like ten sovereigns

It'll get 8f alright, it's by a miler who was never tested over further out of a top class 2yo miler dam who beat Immortal Verse over a mile as a 2yo and she finished 2nd to Misty For Me in the 2yo Gp1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1mile. Calyx was spectacular in the Coventry but Sergei Prokofiev was on his tail without being fully wound up that day and he didn't do much for the form afterward. The last time a Coventry Winner won the 2,000 Guineas was in 2012 when Dawn Approach did the double and the only other time it had been done in the last 40 years was by Henrythenavigator in 2008 but both of those horses had won over 7f as juveniles and both had plenty of runs as juveniles.

The best chance of Calyx failing at Newmarket would be that his dam went backwards pretty quickly as a 3yo.

WicklowBrave

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Magna Grecia.

He'll win by default yet.

famagusta

From Twitter


Calyx is very late foal (25th April) and only two 2000 Guineas in last 30 years foaled after 6th April. Sire's Racing Post sire stamina figure of 8.3 is low with only three winners in last 30 below 8.8. Calyx last run was 19/06 and no winners in last 30 didn't run 28/07 onwards.

Slattsy

Fair play to Twitter, they know everything!

krustydoyle

On Magna Grecia at 12s so I'm happy enough

tryfix

famagusta wrote: »

From Twitter


Calyx is very late foal (25th April) and only two 2000 Guineas in last 30 years foaled after 6th April. Sire's Racing Post sire stamina figure of 8.3 is low with only three winners in last 30 below 8.8. Calyx last run was 19/06 and no winners in last 30 didn't run 28/07 onwards.

That Sire Stamina index for Kingman is already wrong ( now 8.4 instead of the 8.3 on the Twitter comment ) and probably very misleading, he's a second season sire whose stock are just after turning 3 and they are only now beginning to step up in trip. He has a 40% winners to runners ratio ( 2 from 5 ) at 10f-11f and his sole runner at 12-13f placed 3rd on his only start at the distance. His stamina index will keep on rising through this year.

The 3 from 30 stat for below an 8.8 stamina index is highly likely to have been arrived at. by looking at the current or last stamina index given for sires rather than by looking at the actual Stamina index of a sire at the time of their progeny's 2,000 Guineas win.

Can't argue with the age and last date to run stats, but he was mature enough to win a Coventry in the June of his 2yo career. I'd be thinking myself that he wouldn't be fully revved up in the Guineas and more likely to place there before showing big improvement in the St James Palace Stakes at Ascot. That tends to be the Gosden way.

The Tetrarch

I think the stamina index can be a bit misleading.
You are right to point out that Kingman can have few runners 3yo and over so his stamina index will be based on almost no runners.
The Stamina Index could only be useful for sires with at least three crops of 3yos.

For the 2018 English Derby I questioned on Betfair the stamina index of Deep Impact, the sire of Saxon Warrior.
When I looked into it in detail I found it was based on only about a dozen runners in GB/ IRE, almost all in low grade races, with the exception of Saxon Warrior himself.
The Racing Post Stamina Index is based only on GB / IRE runners.

People said Deep Impact had won over 2 miles in Japan, and had finished 3rd in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
Long distance races in Japan are of very firm tracks, wide tracks, the field moving along like a cycling peleton, the winner getting cover all the way (cyclists describe this as an armchair ride).

I much prefer actual data to percentages and averages.
Percentages, which should be based on data greater than a hundred (per cent) are often based on a handful.

ASOT

Calyx out now.

The Tetrarch

Line Of Duty out, 31 still in (and that includes Calyx). No French trained horse.

IAMAMORON

ASOT wrote: »

Calyx out now.

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Line Of Duty out, 31 still in (and that includes Calyx). No French trained horse.

Where did you see for sure he is out? It looks like the bookies have stop taking bets. Who are Marathon ?

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/2000-guineas/winner

BumperD

Rp

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/decision-on-calyx-s-2-000-guineas-bid-to-be-decided-over-weekend/377635

famagusta

Magna grecia is into clear fav now

Mohaather is now lame, decision about running to be made next Monday,

They're dropping like flies

The Tetrarch

I put 20 at 85s on Emaraaty Ana while waiting to see the final declarations.

abarkie

Greenham winner Mohaather forced out of the 2,000 Guineas

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/greenham-winner-mohaather-forced-out-of-the-2-000-guineas/378055

Andrew00

Madhmoon

The Tetrarch

My bet is Al Hilalee at 15.66

famagusta

Donnacha is on magna grecia, Ryan on ten soverigns, good news for all the magna backers!

IAMAMORON

It looks really open. No big bet for me. I might have a ew on Andrew Balding's seen as he is flying at the moment.

Probably Coolmore, but you can pick holes in both of theirs.

I really hope Skitter Scatter turns up for the 1000. She looked really tough last year. The way she stayed on in the Moyglare, when she looked in trouble, if she turns up on Sunday I will be having a good go at her. Let's hope she has trained on.

The Tetrarch

On Windfinder the forecast wind on Saturday afternoon is 17 knots from the left and very slightly behind.
On Sunday for the 1000 Guineas it is 9 knots from behind and slightly from the left.

WicklowBrave

It seems everyone (myself included until now) is just assuming Ten Sovereigns won’t stay but the more I think about it the more I don’t see how he won’t stay. He relaxes so well in his races and on pedigree it should be within his compass. If he stays he wins imo and 7/2 seems like more than a fair price to find out.

tryfix

WicklowBrave wrote: »

It seems everyone (myself included until now) is just assuming Ten Sovereigns won’t stay but the more I think about it the more I don’t see how he won’t stay. He relaxes so well in his races and on pedigree it should be within his compass. If he stays he wins imo and 7/2 seems like more than a fair price to find out.

There are lines of form to suggest that the Middle Park form is better even than the Dewhurst, or at least better than that of the runner still left to uphold the Dewhurst form. I believed in this fellow as a 2yo and moving from 2-3 years of age hasn't knocked back the form of the No Nay Never progeny and they seem to get 7-8f without a drop in form. So he should have trained on which is more half the battle, but I dread the thought of Ryan holding him up to get the trip and then finding himself repeatedly blocked when making his run through the big field that's going to turn up for this open looking race.

Magna Grecia has the perfect pedigree for the race and Donnacha will give him a smooth pathway to the line. I'd be a little worried about his 2yo form not being good enough.

Madhmoon's trial looks better when it's assessed in terms of it being over an inadequate trip with his carrying a hefty penalty. He's a beautiful mover and I can't resist having a punt on him.

Advertise has Frankie's assistance in the saddle which will mean that he'll be sent on in plenty of time and will have to be good enough to repel all challengers. Has great place prospects but should find one too good on the day.

The Tetrarch

The 19 runners are by 17 different sires, and many in the field are by sprinters.
Only one of the 17 sires has sired a 2000 Guineas winner, Dubawi sired Makfi.
Al Hilalee is by Dubawi.

It has the ingredients for an upset.
With a strong breeze forecast, about 18 knots from the left, I think those drawn low (far side) are favoured: Madhmoon (1), Emaraaty Ana (2), Skardu (3), Set Piece (4), The Sovereigns (5).
Advertise (drawn 8) with Dettori might get cover and last the mile.
Magna Grecia is drawn 17 imo a negative.

Mgoraf

Who is the oldest horse in the race?

Andrew00

Kevin Prendergast is bullish!

“I’m very happy with him. He couldn’t be better or fitter and I think whatever beats him will win.”

brickster69

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The 19 runners are by 17 different sires, and many in the field are by sprinters.
Only one of the 17 sires has sired a 2000 Guineas winner, Dubawi sired Makfi.
Al Hilalee is by Dubawi.

It has the ingredients for an upset.
With a strong breeze forecast, about 18 knots from the left, I think those drawn low (far side) are favoured: Madhmoon (1), Emaraaty Ana (2), Skardu (3), Set Piece (4), The Sovereigns (5).
Advertise (drawn 8) with Dettori might get cover and last the mile.
Magna Grecia is drawn 17 imo a negative.

Interesting also that only one of those sires won a 2000 Guineas.

FatRat

Anyone give Skardu a chance? I like the look of him

Disclaimer: Also a James Doyle fanboy

akelly02

Is drawn high or low better ? Is high towards the near rail as we are watching?

IAMAMORON

akelly02 wrote: »

Is drawn high or low better ? Is high towards the near rail as we are watching?

It depends on the wind direction. See Tetrach's post above, he is all over it.

The Tetrarch

IAMAMORON wrote: »

It depends on the wind direction. See Tetrach's post above, he is all over it.

I became a wind watcher, and am thinking of getting one of those handheld wind measuring yokes.
If you have a bicycle you will know the effect.
As a fan of Nick Mordin I learned from his writings that it was something to consider in a race, especially on a straight course like Newmarket or The Curragh.
Mordin suggested looking at the flags (always at racecourses) and if the flag is fully stretched it is about 20 mph, half stretched about 10 mph.
Years ago at The Curragh I backed a winner in a handicap at 14/1 only because it was drawn on the far side with the wind coming from the opposite side.
The horse was out of the wind getting an easy time until asked to win in the last hundred yards.
The bookmaker had a big smile on his face when I arrived to collect, his only payout on the race.

A great example of an intelligent ride in strong wind is Frankie Dettori on Blue Bunting 16/1 in the 2011 English 1000 Guineas.
She was drawn 16, and afaik in those days high numbers were on the right (away from the stand). Now the high numbrs are stand side.
There was a strong wind from the right, and Blue Bunting was drawn on the right, the "wrong" side.
Frankie took a pull coming out of the stalls, took Blue Bunting to the back of the field, worked his way over to the left of the field, kept his filly at the rear and on the left getting cover from the wind.
The horses in front were getting a battering from the wind.
In the last furlong Frankie had plenty of horse, came up the stand rails, and won easily.

At the moment the wind at Newmarket is 29 km/h or 18 mph, and the forecast is for a little higher.

I do not know how the field will split in the 2000 Guineas.
My guess if they will all end up on the far rail as the wind is from the stand side.
My preference would be for a low draw horse (drawn far side).
It shows the risks you take with antepost betting - horses are withdrawn, the ground, draw, wind all unknown, and of course you do not know the prices on the day.