2000 Guineas 2019

IAMAMORON

Absolutely no issue there. The Guineas is probably the best Derby Trial in my humble opinion. If anything it would indicate to me that they are impressed with how the horse has trained on and want to make sure it has the best available options for his 3 year old career. He is out of Guineas winner ( sort of ) by Galileo , the Derby trip should not be an issue.

The only negative I can find is that the dam was a bit regressive after her Guineas run. Not dreadful, but she did not improve. Regardless of this, my conjecture will have no influence on how the horse runs for the rest of the season. He could go on to be the greatest horse since Sea the Stars, we can't tell yet to be fair.

tryfix

Too Darn Hot makes his seasonal debut on Saturday in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. All seems to be well with the Champ so there should be no excuses.

The Tetrarch

tryfix wrote: »

Too Darn Hot makes his seasonal debut on Saturday in the Greenham Stakes at Newbury. All seems to be well with the Champ so there should be no excuses.

I wouldn't worry about his 2000 Guineas chances if he was unplaced in that.
A top runner running in a trial is often just having a canter, and it works miracles on his price in the big race.

yaboya1

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I wouldn't worry about his 2000 Guineas chances if he was unplaced in that.
A top runner running in a trial is often just having a canter, and it works miracles on his price in the big race.

Seriously?
How many Guineas winners have been unplaced in a trial? I don't remember any.

Andrew00

He's quite simply Too Darn Hot

tryfix

.“Line Of Duty has wintered well and he’s hopefully going to head straight for the Guineas,” Appleby said. “We also have another colt in Zakouski [the winner of a Kempton maiden last November on his only juvenile start], who’s heading towards the Craven meeting. He stayed back in the UK but he’s wintered well and we’re very pleased with what we’re seeing.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/mar/28/charlie-appleby-dubai-world-cup-horse-racing

This is from the 28th March but there's no indication since that plans have changed.

Line Of Duty goes straight to the Guineas and the once raced Zakouski ( as low as 15/2 in the Guineas betting ) is heading to the Craven meeting, probably to the Craven itself seeing as how their Masar won it so well last year.

There's a link below to the video of Zakouski's impressive maiden win.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RacingTV/status/1065292755411324930

TheMilkyPirate

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I wouldn't worry about his 2000 Guineas chances if he was unplaced in that.
A top runner running in a trial is often just having a canter, and it works miracles on his price in the big race.

Don't agree at all. I would worry a lot about his chances in the Guineas if he was unplaced on Saturday.

IAMAMORON

Night of Thunder was second in the Greenham and then won the Guineas, so it is possible, like anything really.

For me, given that TDH was so good last year, I would be worried if he didn't hack up. Three things - John Gosden has a good record at this time of the year. I particularly follow his at the Craven Meeting. That being the case why is TDH not entered in the Newmarket trial ? Finally John Gosden's record in the Newmarket Guineas is not great.

In saying all that Too Darn Hot was a very very good two year old. I have no issues with his breeding, trainer, trip, ground etc. It will take a good one to beat him if he has trained on. But if he was to lose on Saturday I would not be too happy about him for the Guineas.

Mgoraf

Surprised they're even giving him a prep race especially over 7f. Would have expected guineas to be his first start and then up in trip

yaboya1

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Night of Thunder was second in the Greenham and then won the Guineas, so it is possible, like anything really.

For me, given that TDH was so good last year, I would be worried if he didn't hack up. Three things - John Gosden has a good record at this time of the year. I particularly follow his at the Craven Meeting. That being the case why is TDH not entered in the Newmarket trial ? Finally John Gosden's record in the Newmarket Guineas is not great.

In saying all that Too Darn Hot was a very very good two year old. I have no issues with his breeding, trainer, trip, ground etc. It will take a good one to beat him if he has trained on. But if he was to lose on Saturday I would not be too happy about him for the Guineas.

2nd is not unplaced.
Big difference.

tryfix

.Qipco 2,000 Guineas favourite Too Darn Hot will miss his intended prep run for the Newmarket Classic in the Greenham Stakes this weekend.

Trainer John Gosden said on Wednesday evening: "Too Darn Hot breezed comfortably this morning under Frankie Dettori on the Al Bahathri but tonight at evening stables he was found to have some heat in his splint bone.

"Unfortunately he'll have to miss Newbury as he'll have a few easy days. The plan is to take him straight to the Qipco 2,000 Guineas."

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/too-darn-hot/375277



Big news, if he runs in the Guineas after this then he has to be taken on. The family curse of fragility strikes again?

WicklowBrave

Magna Grecia.

BumperD

tryfix wrote: »

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/too-darn-hot/375277



Big news, if he runs in the Guineas after this then he has to be taken on. The family curse of fragility strikes again?

It’s a family trait at this stage for sure, doubt he makes it to guineas

tryfix

Persian King was mightily impressive in todays Gp3 Prix Dr fontainbleau. He was a 5L winner who controlled the race from the front and then opened up in the last few furlongs to destroy a field of horses who looked to be running fairly fast themselves. The further he went the better he got.

His trainer said that he could do either the French or English Guineas, it will depend on how the Godolphin Guineas challengers get through Craven week at Newmarket.

A nice boost for Magna Grecia as well.

WicklowBrave

Too Darn Hot isn’t running. Persian King will be decked and I’m a huge fan of the horse but there’ll be something to beat him. Something at a big price could win it. It’s very open.

BumperD

Odds on too darn hot won’t be seen again.

IAMAMORON

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/2000-guineas/winner

It is not looking good for him to be a runner at this stage. 4 - 1 looks huge but they obviously know something and are trying to suck any late chancey money. Gosden has said repeatedly that no decision until after the weekend. I have never known Gosden to pull fast ones on horses, he would definitely have preferred a prep run. All it takes is one Vet with access to the horses Vet etc and the bookies are in the loop. It's gas the ****ers dangle that price right in front of everyone and they probably know the horse isn't turning up. They probably won't go NRNB until Gosden confirms what is happening.

The Mig

It’s too darn hot in his leg still. Non runner!

BumperD

BumperD wrote: »

It’s a family trait at this stage for sure, doubt he makes it to guineas

Game by the bollix

The Tetrarch

A bet of 2 euro at 220s on Betfair was the last action.

The Tetrarch

I have an Excel file that I often use when assessing classic races.
You give points for wins in Listed, Group 3, Group 2, Group 1 races.
The greater the winning distance the more points, the better the race more points.
For example, a 5 length win in a Group 1 gets 9 points, a short head win in a Listed race gets 1 point.
It has been ridiculed on forums before, but it shows winners of important races coming into the classic.

Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points
Name List List G3 G3 G2 G2 G1 G1 G1 List List G3 G3 G2 G2 G1 G1 G1 MAX SUM
Advertise 2 0.5 5 4 5 9
Anthony Van Dyck 5 0.5 7 3 7 10
Azano
Bell Rock
Calyx 1 4 4 4
Daarik
Great Scot 2 3 3 3
Jash
Kick On 0.3 1 1 1
Line Of Duty 1.25 0.5 3 4 4 7
Madhmoon 2.5 5 5 5
Magna Grecia 0.2 4 4 4
Mohaather 1.5 0.75 3 2 3 5
Momkin
Name The Wind
Persian King 0.3 5 2 7 7 9
Phoenix Of Spain 1.5 3 3 3
Royal Marine 0.3 4 4 4
Royal Meeting 0.75 4 4 4
Set Piece
Skardu 0.3 2 2 2
Ten Sovereigns 4 0.5 6 4 6 10
Urban Icon
Zakouski


I do not know if Anthony Van Dyck is going in the 2000 Guineas, but have just now has a bet of 12.77 Euro at 122.83.
He was beaten by Quorto, Too Darn Hot, Line Of Duty in his last three races in a 7 race 2yo campaign.
He was born on 19th May 2016 and might have been a bit immature.

tryfix

Andre Fabre is saying that it's 90% certain that Persian King will miss Newmarket and go to the French Guineas instead. If the ground in France turns soft then Persian King will head to Newmarket looking for the good ground that he needs.


Meanwhile Advertise one of last year's top two year olds trades at double figures despite his trainers assurances that he has matured well over the winter and his sire Showcasing has been doing well with his three year olds. He's the value bet in the race at this moment.

Andrew00

Know idea why nobody is mentioning Advertise too. Carries some of the best form into this race and his price is great ew value imo

abarkie

Andrew00 wrote: »

Know idea why nobody is mentioning Advertise too. Carries some of the best form into this race and his price is great ew value imo

Unfashionable trainer?

abarkie

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I have an Excel file that I often use when assessing classic races.
You give points for wins in Listed, Group 3, Group 2, Group 1 races.
The greater the winning distance the more points, the better the race more points.
For example, a 5 length win in a Group 1 gets 9 points, a short head win in a Listed race gets 1 point.
It has been ridiculed on forums before, but it shows winners of important races coming into the classic.

Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Dist Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points Points
Name List List G3 G3 G2 G2 G1 G1 G1 List List G3 G3 G2 G2 G1 G1 G1 MAX SUM
Advertise 2 0.5 5 4 5 9
Anthony Van Dyck 5 0.5 7 3 7 10
Azano
Bell Rock
Calyx 1 4 4 4
Daarik
Great Scot 2 3 3 3
Jash
Kick On 0.3 1 1 1
Line Of Duty 1.25 0.5 3 4 4 7
Madhmoon 2.5 5 5 5
Magna Grecia 0.2 4 4 4
Mohaather 1.5 0.75 3 2 3 5
Momkin
Name The Wind
Persian King 0.3 5 2 7 7 9
Phoenix Of Spain 1.5 3 3 3
Royal Marine 0.3 4 4 4
Royal Meeting 0.75 4 4 4
Set Piece
Skardu 0.3 2 2 2
Ten Sovereigns 4 0.5 6 4 6 10
Urban Icon
Zakouski


I do not know if Anthony Van Dyck is going in the 2000 Guineas, but have just now has a bet of 12.77 Euro at 122.83.
He was beaten by Quorto, Too Darn Hot, Line Of Duty in his last three races in a 7 race 2yo campaign.
He was born on 19th May 2016 and might have been a bit immature.

Do you create the spreadsheet yourself or download from somewhere?

The Tetrarch

abarkie wrote: »

Do you create the spreadsheet yourself or download from somewhere?

It was a "system" mentioned in an old cheap paperback book, and I put it into Excel to make it easy to use.
You ignore all the maiden, conditions, handicap wins and just enter the Listed and Group wins.
For the classic races you will have a maximum of about four group wins for any horse. Most have none.
I would not say it is successful, but you take a closer look at the form of horses with Group wins.
If you PM we an e-mail address I will send you a copy.

The Tetrarch

Charlie Appleby is considering bypassing the 2000 Guineas with Line Of Duty in favour of an outing in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York. [Sporting Life]

Slattsy

Calyx. Backed off the preverbials.

madmoose

Slattsy wrote: »

Calyx. Backed off the preverbials.

Surely has no chance on seasonal reappearance having only won over 6f and looks speedy?

Slattsy

madmoose wrote: »

Surely has no chance on seasonal reappearance having only won over 6f and looks speedy?

No idea. Ain't seen a flat race yet. Must be doing summit in the gaff though.