Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Skelet0n

downcow wrote: »

The cracks in the Eu might be appearing a few weeks earlier than I expected. Feels like next couple of days may be interesting. I think the current mask of unity across Europe will fall like a house of cards once first couple go.
It will be no panacea for any of us.
Ireland should soften their stance on an indefinite backstop themselves before they are forced by others.

There’s been no inkling of cracks, even the Poles have stopped realising they were on to a loser.
The EU will just sit back now until the U.K. has something to say, we’re prepared as we can be.

Infini

downcow wrote: »

The cracks in the Eu might be appearing a few weeks earlier than I expected. Feels like next couple of days may be interesting. I think the current mask of unity across Europe will fall like a house of cards once first couple go.
It will be no panacea for any of us.
Ireland should soften their stance on an indefinite backstop themselves before they are forced by others.

Where? How? Thats an opinion with no basis whatsoever. It's also the same kind of thinking those Brexiteers have that have deluded themselves into believing. The UK is the one at fault here for not having any plan.

prawnsambo

For those who want to learn more about the withdrawal agreement, the EU Commission have published a 60 page slideshow explaining it.

It's here in pdf format.

downcow

Pa8301 wrote: »

Do you have any basis for this belief?

Well Italy appears to be getting shaky about their £20bn exports to UK.
There is going to be growing concern from others.

lawred2

downcow wrote: »

The cracks in the Eu might be appearing a few weeks earlier than I expected. Feels like next couple of days may be interesting. I think the current mask of unity across Europe will fall like a house of cards once first couple go.
It will be no panacea for any of us.
Ireland should soften their stance on an indefinite backstop themselves before they are forced by others.

based on what?

<SNIP>

VinLieger

downcow wrote: »

Well Italy appears to be getting shaky about their £20bn exports to UK.
There is going to be growing concern from others.

Stop reading the Express, and I know you got this from there because their article on this dropped 54 minutes ago.


You previously mentioned you have very little experience of non british media might be time to expand your horizons again.

Seth Brundle

alloywheel wrote: »

After many decades of being a pillar of the EEC / EU, since the early seventies, and its second biggest net contributor, the UK has has enough and has democratically voted to leave. Say what you like about the British, but when they say they will do something, they do it. They do not surrender. They do not have further referendums or get bribed to change their mind, like us. They will leave on March 29th, they have had enough. The EU saying the Brexiters have a special place in Hell just strengthens their resolve and does not help matters.

Firstly in terms of the text I made bold, do you really believe that it was truly democratic when the leave campaign is shown to have cheated by using foreign undeclared money?
As for "do not surrender" - who is looking for the Uk to surrender to anything? If this is a view that you hold then you're delusional.
As for bribing to change their mind, who was bribed in this manner and when?
As for "they have had enough" - enough of what? Being a joint partner within a union? Is it that the UK (or rather England) just doesn't like not being in charge?
Lastly, the comment by Tusk while possibly not helpful is nowhere near as vitriolic as some of the shíte coming out of the UK. Regardless he didn't say what you've posted above. He explicitly made reference to those who promoted Brexit without even a sketch of a plan - you already know this but choose to paraphrase to suit your trolling agenda.

alloywheel wrote: »

The question is what will happen on this island? The British and the Unionists do not want a hard border, but my bet is that the EU will force us to have a hard border.

This has been explained to you on several occasions. Why do you deliberately choose to ignore what you're told and then repeat the same question?

alloywheel wrote: »

The British were always a trading country with the rest of the world, that is how they controlled a quarter of the world at one stage, they like trading with the world.

Did those countries which traded with the UK choose to trade with them willingly?
Did those countries which Britain controlled choose to be controlled?
Will that be the case going forwards?

Enzokk

eagle eye wrote: »

The EU need to listen and get a deal done for the sake of it's citizens in this country.

But we are the EU so we are busy with the negotiations. You are posting like some in the UK talk, that somehow the EU is this organization that has no input of its members when it is instructed by its members on what direction they need to head in. The sense I get is that when there is a crises the leaders are there to listen and compromise to find the best deal and outcome for Europe as a stong EU is in the interest of all EU members. Tusk in particular seems like he is level headed and quite often he is the middleman in negotiations to get the sides together to get a solution.

eagle eye wrote: »

The EU has always worked closely with NATO through it's member States who are part of it. There has always been a unified approach from European countries. The UK are not part of the EU anymore so if they decide on different measures to what the EU wants then the other members of NATO have a decision as to whether to back the EU's position or go against it.
The G20 involves the central banks of all it's members. Russia will back anything which is anti-EU, the US are likely to back the UK and we could see divides develop. This has the potential to see tension rise and agreements break.
The goal of the G20 is financial stability worldwide so I'm sure they will want to look after the UK's interests in order to maintain financial harmony.

So the other members of NATO, of which 21 is EU members, are going to have a crises of thought because the UK is not part of the EU all of a sudden? You just said that the member states of the EU is unified in their approach, but now you seem to be saying the glue to that is the UK?

If the goal of the G20 is financial stability then there will not be a lot of problems as the EU has shown countries are more likely to work together for the greater good if they are in it for their own financial health. Once again you seem to think that the UK is the glue that holds the world together that they don't fight against each other, yet the actions of the UK government of trying to divide and conquer during these negotiations shows that is not true. An MP actively lobbied a foreign government to go against their own government position and tried to get the same government to sow seeds of doubt in the EU.

In any case, not sure if this has been posted but the EU has released a document explaining the Withdrawal Agreement.

The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement explained

Edit: prawnsambo beat me to it.

Leroy42

downcow wrote: »

Well Italy appears to be getting shaky about their £20bn exports to UK.
There is going to be growing concern from others.

Wouldn't that simply mean that the EU need to focus more on its members rather than continuing to waste time trying to help TM get her own party to agree with her?

Which is going to be more of a problem for the EU. A crash out for the UK, but which maintains all the other deals and regulations and the 4 fundamentals of the EU or giving in to the UK and thus potentially opening up all previous trade deals, giving succour to all "EU Out" parties across the EU?

Take for examply Italy. If the EU now gove in the the UK, wouldn't Italy simply demand they get better terms? That the rules don't apply to them or they will exit?

Brexiteers appear to continue to be of the opinion that Brexit is happening in a complete vacuum. That the only people it will effect are the UK and the EU (which seems to consists of Brussels and not much else in their eyes). But of course it doesn't.

Call me Al

downcow wrote: »

....

It will be no panacea for any of us.
Ireland should soften their stance on an indefinite backstop themselves before they are forced by others.

Sorry, did I miss the UK government's extensive consulation process with the Irish government in advance of the brexit vote wrt Northern Ireland? Considering many Brexiteers are now expecting changes to be made to the basic premise and peaceful intentions of the GFA and/or Ireland's position in the Single Market? We are going nowhere. "That Is Out".

In their support of Brexit the DUP were the fools who put ideology over their constituents long-term good. And those who voted with them were so short-sighted in their blind support of Queen, kingdom and zealotry that they followed along like turkeys voting for Christmas.
Unionists are facing a 6 counties with a joint complete UK/Ireland administration (how Thatcher must be spinning in her grave) or a United Ireland. And they have only themselves to blame. The Republicans didn't need to shoot one bullet and didn't even set the train in motion. They're just sitting back and watching the whole thing implode.

ETA you think the EU will sacrifice Ireland, but don't believe that the same logic will apply to the relationship between Westminster and N.I.? In fact I think the urgency of the situation for Westminster will soon have the cracks showing.

eagle eye

Leroy42 wrote:

Wouldn't that simply mean that the EU need to focus more on its members rather than continuing to waste time trying to help TM get her own party to agree with her?

Well you see it's members in the ROI are going to get screwed over if there is no deal. So they have to deal with TM.

lawred2

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you see it's members in the ROI are going to get screwed over if there is no deal. So they have to deal with TM.

yeah... by the UK

It is the UK that is tearing up 45 years' worth of cooperative international treaties...

that point seems to elude you constantly

VinLieger

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you see it's members in the ROI are going to get screwed over if there is no deal. So they have to deal with TM.

Who will screw us over as shes already done countless times during the negotiation which is why we need the backstop.

If we don't have the backstop the UK will turn around in a year and change everything due to signing whatever junk trade deal the US put in front of them leaving us requiring a hard border anyway.

Their word and promises are as worthless as the red tops they base their decision making on.

LuckyLloyd

downcow wrote: »

Well Italy appears to be getting shaky about their £20bn exports to UK.
There is going to be growing concern from others.

<SNIP>. After a google search, the only story I could find is the Express:

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/1085392/brexit-news-latest-no-deal-brexit-italy-trade-deal-bilateral-deal/amp

Headline a colourful:

“EU SHOCK: Rebels Italy in threat to DESTROY Brussels unity with plan for OWN Brexit talks”

The text of the article carries quotes from a Lega economic spokesman and a representative for Agri - Food business. They’d prefer a deal. No **** - all of the EU prefers a deal. But there’s nothing in there about starting their own talks or taking any definitive action other than going to the EU and essentially saying ‘hey, please note the trade links we have with the UK’. Okay.

If the Express is your news source then it goes part way to accounting for your posting style.

Seth Brundle

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you see it's members in the ROI are going to get screwed over if there is no deal. So they have to deal with TM.

The UK has so far been prepared to screw over the RoI.
They have also shown a preparedness to ignore legally binding treaties.
What makes you think that they won't screw us over if we were to "deal with TM"?
Anyhow, for us to "deal with TM" would mean that we leave the EU. I honestly don't think the Irish people, on the whole, would be that stupid.

Leroy42

eagle eye wrote: »

Well you see it's members in the ROI are going to get screwed over if there is no deal. So they have to deal with TM.

ROI are getting screwed over by TM. Simple as.

The UK have thrown away all the work, all the relationships in the pursuit of their own Eden. An Eden they can neither describe of say whether it even exists.

The UK MP's have tried to bully us, threaten us, split the EU to try to break the union with us.

TM won't be around for much longer, so ROI will not be negotiating anything with. But even if she does hang around, you do realise that after the UK leaves, in whatever form, any negotiations will still be through the EU.

UK will have left, not the ROI, so the UK will still be faced trying to negotiate with Brussles. Many in the UK seem to miss this quite simple, but pretty important point.

murphaph

VinLieger wrote: »

Stop reading the Express, and I know you got this from there because their article on this dropped 54 minutes ago.


You previously mentioned you have very little experience of non british media might be time to expand your horizons again.

Indeed. I had a quick look at the English website of a major Italian daily newspaper and I can't find any mention of Brexit.

https://www.corriere.it/english/?refresh_ce-cp

Downcow seems to think the rest of Europe is as interested in Brexit as we all are. I live in Germany and nobody here cares (of course some in specific industries have concerns).

Russman

downcow wrote: »

Ireland should soften their stance on an indefinite backstop themselves before they are forced by others.

But, soften their stance to what ? How is "unless and until" construed into "indefinite" ?
With no agreement, it'll be a hard, but probably fairly short term border now (or over the coming months) that will likely be removed as part of FTA negotiations, whereas if there's no backstop its effectively going to be a hard border if/when the UK demand too much out of the FTA talks and threaten a border if they don't get their way.
The reality is the backstop is a bit of a red herring tbh, being used by the ERG as an excuse to promote a hard Brexit and the DUP to oppose something, anything.
Unless of course HMG is negotiating in bad faith and either knows there's no technological solution and/or knows the FTA talks will be difficult and wants an ace in the hole.

LuckyLloyd

If the Captains of industry are going to come through and force the EU to capitulate on the integrity of the single market so the Brexiteers can get what they want they’re leaving it awful late eh?

EdgeCase

That's the point though, think about how aware an average Irish person is about the dispute between the French and Italian governments, that's about how much your average person in the EU beyond Ireland is focused on Brexit.

intellectual dosser

VinLieger wrote: »

If it was part of the deal that the flag and anthem are changed there is no way the border referendum would ever pass in the south

We should be proud of our flag and our anthem, but they're aesthetic items in the big picture of a united Ireland. They'd be tiny hurdles in a border poll.

Leroy42

UK GDP report released
Newsflash: The UK economy suffered a sharp slowdown in the last quarter of 2018, only expanding by 0.2%.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/11/uk-gdp-report-economy-growth-brexit-business-live

Nothing to do with Brexit of course, but was this part of the Brexit plan that things would fall off so quickly.

A previous post mentioned an upcoming Italy recession. This data points very much in the direction of the UK entering recession fairly soon. What should HMG do to stave off that threat?

Chips Lovell

Mod Note

Less getting personal and aiming digs at other posters. If you've an issue with a post, report it and let the mods look at it. Commenting on thread just drags the thread off-topic and turns it in to an even bigger mess.

Also, bear in mind the following rule in the charter:

When offering an opinion, please state so. Every poster is entitled to their opinion - whether it is ill-informed or not. Please do not present an opinion as "fact" - it only leads to flaming and a poster/moderator may demand further evidence. When offering fact, please offer relevant linkage, or at least source. If you do not do this upon posting, then please be willing to do so on request.

Long story short, people are entitled to their opinions, no matter what you think of them. Anyone presenting something as fact needs to be able to back it up.

Thanks

MrMusician18

murphaph wrote: »

The tricolour would never represent unionists. You just can't undo the fact it was draped over the coffins of almost every IRA man buried. I would have no problem changing these things if it helped smoothen the transition.

The anthem would have to be changed too.

I would actually hope that unification could be used to reform our own government, especially local and regional government. Just appending NI would be a huge wasted opportunity.

Could you actually see a referendum passing to remove/change the tricolour?

The unionist tradition would form about 10% and falling of a United Ireland.

The only way such a measure would win the popular vote would be if it was bundled into the unity referendum. It would be leaving an open door however for another party to promise a return to the old symbolism at the next election if the population had been effectively forced to stomach this change to achieve unity.

Kermit.de.frog

I see Juncker will be in Dublin on the 29th to "show solidarity" with Ireland.

Ok, am I reading too much in to this by saying a no deal is now the likely option for the commission?

Otherwise why would they still need to be showing solidarity at that point? Surely a deal would be close if not done at that stage?

EdgeCase

Leroy42 wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/11/uk-gdp-report-economy-growth-brexit-business-live

Nothing to do with Brexit of course, but was this part of the Brexit plan that things would fall off so quickly.

A previous post mentioned an upcoming Italy recession. This data points very much in the direction of the UK entering recession fairly soon. What should HMG do to stave off that threat?

The Brexiteers tend to try and use the threat of a deep recession or financial crisis in the UK as if it's leverage against the EU i.e. 'give us what we want or we'll shoot ourselves in booth feet! and it might hurt you too.

listermint

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I see Juncker will be in Dublin on the 29th to "show solidarity" with Ireland.

Ok, am I reading too much in to this by saying a no deal is now the likely option for the commission?

Otherwise why would they still need to be showing solidarity at that point? Surely a deal would be close if not done at that stage?

At this point Ireland and the EU are resigned to no deal. They've planned for no deal, they expect no deal.

And anything else is a bonus.


It's in the UKs court and the UK alone

VinLieger

listermint wrote: »

At this point Ireland and the EU are resigned to no deal. They've planned for no deal, they expect no deal.

And anything else is a bonus.


It's in the UKs court and the UK alone

There was a Dutch newspaper with the Headline "Brexit Goldmine" over the weekend due to how many jobs they are projecting they will get in a no deal scenario.

Not saying the projections are accurate or will offset any other brexit created issues but it shows the way other European countries are starting to look at brexit

Hurrache

VinLieger wrote: »

There was a Dutch newspaper with the Headline "Brexit Goldmine" over the weekend due to how many jobs they are projecting they will get in a no deal scenario

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1094870010957316096

An interesting thread on the trade benefits of Brexit, authors tongue firmly in cheek. It's worth a read, and this interesting issue popped up in it. When the UK come to try get a deal with Mercosur, they'll be bent over by Argentina.

https://twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/1094877007643623425

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I see Juncker will be in Dublin on the 29th to "show solidarity" with Ireland.

Ok, am I reading too much in to this by saying a no deal is now the likely option for the commission?

Otherwise why would they still need to be showing solidarity at that point? Surely a deal would be close if not done at that stage?

More people are coming to the conclusion the Brits are going to blindly and foolishly crash out chaotically and are planning based on this. Their politicians are being hopelessly unrealistic or even deluded and simply dont seem to have the national interest at heart, only party politics and factless views.

Even the Tusk remarks are an unfortunately realistic view of the UK by the EU that they'll likely crash out with one source beleving the chances of it happening are at 60%. Noone knows what's ultimately gonna happen but the risks are rising and time is growing short.