Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Bit cynical wrote: »

I am prepared to support Ireland's strategy with respect to the backstop. What we have to accept though is that it is a strategy that may fail and, if it does, we can't blame the UK or other countries. It fails, imo, if it goes on year after year with no agreement, bearing in mind that we have the hard border during that time, the thing that we are supposedly against. Therefore, if it fails, I support the Government abandoning the strategy in those circumstances.

We certainly can : Brexit is a unilateral action by the British and the hard right / far right section of their society want it proceeded with even if it causes a hard border.

None of this has anything to do with us.

Enzokk

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

England, Scotland and Wales have obligations to the UK because they are all part of one country. Neither Ireland nor the UK is part of a country called the EU because this does not (yet) exist. However, the laws of both countries are subject to the supremacy of EU law. It may be a very bad law, but you still have to accept it.

It really is a shame that the UK never had any say in the EU Commission or any representation at the EU Parliament in all the time they were a member. They could really have shaped and had a say in how the EU was run. I am sure if that was the case the UK would have been more content with their place in the EU.

Did you know that the UK has 73 MEPs out of 750? They are one of 28 countries (around 4%) but almost 10% of MEPs are from the UK. Then again Germany has 96 MEPs so they have more of a share than any other country. But they also pay the biggest share of the EU budget. They are also a massive net contributor to the EU and their net contribution is almost the same as the total UK contribution. So I think it is fair that they have a bigger amount of MEPs than other countries.

Apportionment in the European Parliament

Budget of the European Union

Christy42

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Christy42 wrote: »

What do you want at this point. If there is a no deal we either have a complete destruction of all our industries or we have a border (or at least as soon as the UK deviates from the EU in terms of tariffs etc.). We might be able to sneak by for a bit but other countries (and I mean around the world) won't be happy with is flaunting WTO rules we are signed up for.

The only part of the WA the UK is currently arguing against is the soft border. If they want a hard border we can't stop them.

New ideas but right now the EU has been backing us. The backstop is there for us. Otherwise the EU could have simply cut us out of the single market and got on with the deal.

New ideas or stop with the meaningless phrases. What would you do. I want serious specifics here, not just "do a deal for no border".

The UK is not arguing against a soft border, the UK is arguing against a backstop arrangement that remains until the EU decides that it is no longer required.

The UK is arguing for a hard border. If they crash out or we make a deal with no conditions for northern Ireland then we get a hard border. The UK has proposed no method of dealing with the north and are going against the only viable solution that has been proposed. They are arguing for a hard border.

It is like saying someone isn't arguing for more crashes but is pro driving with a blindfold on. Sure they say they don't want crashes but they are taking an argument that makes them more likely.

If someone, anyone, comes up with a better plan than the backstop then I am sure the EU will listen. I certainly will.

They have about a month and a half to plan, propose and implement it so I wouldn't hold my breath.

J Mysterio

https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/1092823788348231680

I like Robert Harris' point here. Any decent leader would have got on top of this ERG nonsense long ago. But then, a decent leader wouldnt be in NI now promising the DUP changes to the Backstop... With 52 days to go.

Enzokk

J Mysterio wrote: »

I like Robert Harris' point here. Any decent leader would have got on top of this ERG nonsense long ago. But then, a decent leader wouldnt be in NI now promising the DUP changes to the Backstop... With 52 days to go.

May is still doing what she does, promising everything to everyone. She will get a change to the backstop but there will not be a hard border between Ireland and NI. The UK will leave the customs union and single market so they will have control of immigration and their own trade deals, but no border still. This madness surely has to stop at some point.

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

You still don't seem to appreciate that it takes two to tango. So far the UK has played fast and loose with the GFA and imo has tried to use it as a hostage in a FTA negotiation. That bluff was called and the GFA put front and centre, to which they agreed so that they could get on with the trade talks. Which they didn't seem to realise, weren't binding. And now that they have realised their folly, they are trying to go back to the beginning again. I have no faith in them to be anything other than duplicitous at this stage. So until it's nailed down and immovable, then we can talk. Any bending and we're done.

I would agree with you more if we (Ireland), by holding out for the backstop, ensured, by so doing, that a hard border was never put in place.

It seems to me that the strategy of holding out for agreement on the backstop makes a certain amount of sense if we have calculated that the UK will do anything to avoid exiting on no deal. Then, in order to avoid no deal, the UK agrees to the backstop before the deadline and the hard border is never put in place. There is still a possibility of this happening of course, though it is rather slim at this stage.

But once the crash out exit occurs, we are in new territory. Now the hard border gets put in place and, what is more, Ireland is seen to be building it. In stead of avoiding the hard border, we are now seeking conditions to have it removed. Sure, the backstop would achieve this, but as time goes on, the more the UK gets used to the situation and therefore the less likely they are to agree to it. If it is to happen, it has happen within the first few months.

We can certainly blame the UK if we wish and indeed that has been happening at government levels. But at the end of the day it is like two companies trying to secure a deal. If a deal is not reached both have failed. It does not help one party to blame the other. They blame us and we blame them but regardless the strategy has failed. It is then time for a new approach.

I think our calculations have been wrong. I don't think we understand the controversial nature of the backstop from the UK perspective. I don't think we appreciate their reluctance to cancel brexit or hold another referendum. These and other issues I think we have miscalculated and therefore we will have to pay a price.

However, we have little choice now but to continue down the current road even if there is little chance of success. The only thing I would say is that we should recognise when we have failed and then start thinking of something new. If we don't the EU might end up doing us a favour and overruling us on the backstop.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1092910377283829761

So many issues.
How does anyone know what's inside the trucks for one?
Why would GPS be useful?
How does anyone know what standards they are conforming too?
Etc

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8361505/brexit-secret-high-tech-irish-border/

So many issues.

The secret plan will use cameras to read number plates

No new cameras on Irish border after Brexit, Karen Bradley says

Leonard Hofstadter

ANPR and surveillance will work so well around the border won't they:rolleyes:.... sweet suffering Jesus!

It's only a trial, so it's not ready by 29 March in any case.

Look at all the paperwork it would involve even if it was to get through, one really does have to ask is the whole thing worth it?

Capt'n Midnight

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8361505/brexit-secret-high-tech-irish-border/

Customs officials to carry out spot check on suspicious vehicles be ordering them to re-route to inspection depots away from the border

Suspect vehicles to be identified and flagged by the Artificial Intelligence-driven analysis which looks at journeys as well as a wide array of other information, including social media posts.

Versus




Also The noPhoto precisely times and fires the flash at the exact moment needed to overexpose the traffic camera

serfboard

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1092910377283829761

Thanks for posting this.

The comments in reply to that tweet range from the brilliant to the hilarious.

Well worth a read.

Charles Babbage

Trials will go like a house on fire

briany

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think our calculations have been wrong. I don't think we understand the controversial nature of the backstop from the UK perspective. I don't think we appreciate their reluctance to cancel brexit or hold another referendum. These and other issues I think we have miscalculated and therefore we will have to pay a price.

I don't think the UK understand the controversial nature of a hard border from an Irish perspective. I think they just expect Ireland to reluctantly bend and accommodate theirs whims, like every other time in history.

serfboard

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/8361505/brexit-secret-high-tech-irish-border/

Great. So this is proposing Cameras and Inspection Depots. How are they going to prevent these from being damaged/destroyed?

And it’s proposing to use Customs Officers to perform random inspections. How are they going to prevent the Customs Officers from being ignored/threatened/assaulted?

By using the Police presumably.

So we’re going to have Customs Officers and Police on this “frictionless border”?

Infini

Bit cynical wrote: »

I would agree with you more if we (Ireland), by holding out for the backstop, ensured, by so doing, that a hard border was never put in place.

It seems to me that the strategy of holding out for agreement on the backstop makes a certain amount of sense if we have calculated that the UK will do anything to avoid exiting on no deal. Then, in order to avoid no deal, the UK agrees to the backstop before the deadline and the hard border is never put in place. There is still a possibility of this happening of course, though it is rather slim at this stage.

But once the crash out exit occurs, we are in new territory. Now the hard border gets put in place and, what is more, Ireland is seen to be building it. In stead of avoiding the hard border, we are now seeking conditions to have it removed. Sure, the backstop would achieve this, but as time goes on, the more the UK gets used to the situation and therefore the less likely they are to agree to it. If it is to happen, it has happen within the first few months.

We can certainly blame the UK if we wish and indeed that has been happening at government levels. But at the end of the day it is like two companies trying to secure a deal. If a deal is not reached both have failed. It does not help one party to blame the other. They blame us and we blame them but regardless the strategy has failed. It is then time for a new approach.

I think our calculations have been wrong. I don't think we understand the controversial nature of the backstop from the UK perspective. I don't think we appreciate their reluctance to cancel brexit or hold another referendum. These and other issues I think we have miscalculated and therefore we will have to pay a price.

However, we have little choice now but to continue down the current road even if there is little chance of success. The only thing I would say is that we should recognise when we have failed and then start thinking of something new. If we don't the EU might end up doing us a favour and overruling us on the backstop.

It's all well and good saying this and all but lets be clear here: we are dealing with a level of incompetence, idiocy and utter lack of any confidence or trust in their government right now. These people literally agree to one thing only to turn around and disown it the next day. They have no interest in betterment of their people or in coming to a workable solution as they essentially want everything their way and nothing else. Their goverment has been compromised by fools with opinions who are lacking in knowledge on how things actually work and disregard this when told, a cohort of parasitical disaster capitalists who spout nonsense and want their Hard Brexit but are likely behind the scenes attempting to cash in big on this then run for the hills when it all goes to hell in a handbasket and cowards who are simply not brave enough to challenge this stupidity and call a halt to it based on corruption, lies and utter diregard for their own nations future not to mention damage us in the process for the sake of petty pride.

The simple truth is those in the conservative party and those who are pushing for Brexit do not give a damn about this island or the effects it will have on us. They did not give a damn about it till they found their plans fall apart because while they didnt give a damn about this island we certainly did and we didn't take it lying down expecially getting this message clear across Europe how their vanity project was going to affect our island this much and damage a peace agreement that has held for over 20 years.

We may well end seeing Britain crash out of course and find ourselves in the unknown but just because they end up going off the cliff doesn't mean that we'll just have to put up a Hard Border. This slowmotion trainwreck will play out over a period of months and in that time their economy will likely crash, their currency tank, their own systems end up in chaos and within a few weeks of this they'll likely be crawling back with even a new government at that point who may or may not be the conseratives but regardless they'll be forced to either deal with things on the EU's terms because their incompetence is going to damage everybody big time and when it does we'll most certainly be pissed over it we wont be the only one's and if they want a deal even a preliminary one it will be on our terms not their's because any offers made will be to at the very least mitigate or negate as much damage on our end and I can certainly see the backstop being part of it. They wont be in a position to complain much at that point either because all of this would have been because of their decisions and choices to crash not us and we aren't going to be in a great mood if the conservatives are still there at that point to put up with their stupidity.

We honestly don't know what could happen ultimately if they crash it could well play out in one way the way you describe but it could easily play out in others: A Hard Brexit and significant job losses and disruption could see a drastic upswing towards a UI which if a border poll we're held and passed would lead to the whole thing at least on this island being negated entirely. An angry and clearly pissed Scotland could agitate and eventually hold a 2nd Indyref and split away in that time eventually rejoining the EU possibly at the same time as a Border Poll in NI. The irony of all this would be Ireland Reuniting a century after partition while Scotland breaks away from England and the border changes islands to cleave through the middle of the island of Britain instead with the bonus irony of placing it on the island where this all began.

Ultimately this shítshow will go on another month until the UK reaches the precipice of their ignorant stupid folly and is basically staring into the abyss. They then have 2 choices: Commit the biggest act of utter stupidity in modern times and possibly fatally wound their country for nothing more than the vain pride of fools and financial gain of parasites or pull their heads out of their arses and cancel A50, cancel Brexit outright and finally face down those who pushed for this and call them out while at the same time start dealing with all the homegrown problems and failures that led them to this place to begin with and own their problems instead of trying to blame the EU.

fash

Deleted User wrote: »

Was that your genuine take on what he meant, or a fiction invented to antagonise?

It's clear he's referring to the overall inability of the UK to realise that it itself is the EU, not just far away Brussels. Ireland understands that quite well, even though we are a comparatively tiny cog in the wheel compared to the UK, which has somehow allowed something it hates, and doesn't even understand, to have come about under its heavy influence.

It's arguable that the UK never really shaped the EU outside of asking for opt-outs simply because it never felt a part of it. Like that uncle who visits a lot and eats your food and drinks your beer, but doesn't interfere with the family.

And it's possibly more arguable that no-one did more to shape the EU and its policies than the UK ( e.g. https://mobile.twitter.com/EmporersNewC/status/884474494512975872 )
It's just that a bunch of ignorant British plebs were unaware of the extent of the UK's influence over the EU and the extent to which the EU empowered the UK - it was their (super power giving) super suit.

Bit cynical

Infini wrote: »

Ultimately this shítshow will go on another month until the UK reaches the precipice of their ignorant stupid folly and is basically staring into the abyss. They then have 2 choices: Commit the biggest act of utter stupidity in modern times and possibly fatally wound their country for nothing more than the vain pride of fools and financial gain of parasites or pull their heads out of their arses and cancel A50, cancel Brexit outright and finally face down those who pushed for this and call them out while at the same time start dealing with all the homegrown problems and failures that led them to this place to begin with and own their problems instead of trying to blame the EU.

If they cancel A50 and Brexit that will be great for Ireland, but like I say, I don't think the controversial aspects of doing this in the UK are appreciated.

I get the impression that you are, in a way, addressing your post to the UK. It is as if you are hoping that the UK is reading this and will be persuaded to back down on Brexit. It is like this is a forum for UK based Remainers where people are trying to influence the UK government and not an Irish one.

The various problems the UK will face with Brexit is the UK's business. For me the problem with Brexit is simply that it is not in Ireland's interest and, of course, we want to minimise its impact. But to oppose it outright is likely to be counter productive. It is OK for us to do it on this forum but if it were to happen on the Government level it would probably backfire on us.

I think that to the extent that we are now seeing problems with Ireland's strategy, those problems lie in the area of overreach. We are proposing things that in the UK have very little chance of being accepted. If that fails we have very little to fall back on.

Peregrinus

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1092910377283829761

So many issues.
How does anyone know what's inside the trucks for one?
Why would GPS be useful?
How does anyone know what standards they are conforming too?
Etc

Exactly.

Nearly all claims from Brexiter sources that the border problem has been solved, or can easily be solved, rely on a (usually deliberate) misrepresentation of what the "no hard border" guarantee entails. They just focus on minimising or avoiding infrastructure at the border itself, and assume that if this can be done the guarantee has been honoured. They also proceed on the assumption that the only problem with infrastructure is that it may be attacked; if somethihng is not susceptible to attack it's OK, as far as they are concerned.

That's completely wrong. What HMG has committed to is:

(a) no physical infrastructure (and, NB, that is not no infrastructure at the border; it's no infrastructure, period) and

(b) no related checks and controls.

And we also need to bear in mind the agreed purpose of these measures - to protect the operation of the GFA, the effective operation of the institutions and bodies established under it, protecting and supporting North-South and East-Wet co-operation across political, economic, security, societal and agricultural contexts, supporting the all-island economy.

So. clearly taking checks and controls which would ordinarily be applied at a border and instead applying them some way back from the border, and without permanent infrastructure, is not doing much to avoid a hard border. To the extent that the checks and controls are an impediment to cross-border trade, the physical location where they applied hardly matters.

Technology may have a role in minimising the impact of checks and controls, but at least 90% of delivering no-hard-border has to be removing any need for checks and controls. Fior example, streamlined ways of collecting tariffs means that tariffs are still being levied, and the levying of tariffs would be a huge barrier to trade, and completely inconsistent with the no-hard-border guarantee.

The current backstop involves regulatory and customs alignment, and that does eliminate the need for checks and controls. The "alternatives" that the UK is demanding, but has yet to produce, need to do the substantially same. Technology can have at best a minor role, in alleviating the impact of any minimal checks or controls that still remain necessary. And it's pointless to explore exactly what technology can do in this regard until we know the trading relationship, can identify what checks and controls will be needed, and are satisfied that they will be sufficiently minimal as not to infringe the no-hard-border guarantee.

I've requested a Brexit forum, due to the amount of derailing and fact-checking in this one thread.
If you have reasons to support or think it's a bad idea, check the link.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=109346568

Zubeneschamali

woohoo!!! wrote: »

May is going to Brussels tomorrow looking for concessions...

May is going to Brussels to pretend to look for concessions but really to be told No, so that she can tell the House of Commons she tried, but its her deal or No Deal to scare them into voting for it.

Christy42

Bit cynical wrote: »

Infini wrote: »

Ultimately this shítshow will go on another month until the UK reaches the precipice of their ignorant stupid folly and is basically staring into the abyss. They then have 2 choices: Commit the biggest act of utter stupidity in modern times and possibly fatally wound their country for nothing more than the vain pride of fools and financial gain of parasites or pull their heads out of their arses and cancel A50, cancel Brexit outright and finally face down those who pushed for this and call them out while at the same time start dealing with all the homegrown problems and failures that led them to this place to begin with and own their problems instead of trying to blame the EU.

If they cancel A50 and Brexit that will be great for Ireland, but like I say, I don't think the controversial aspects of doing this in the UK are appreciated.

I get the impression that you are, in a way, addressing your post to the UK. It is as if you are hoping that the UK is reading this and will be persuaded to back down on Brexit. It is like this is a forum for UK based Remainers where people are trying to influence the UK government and not an Irish one.

The various problems the UK will face with Brexit is the UK's business. For me the problem with Brexit is simply that it is not in Ireland's interest and, of course, we want to minimise its impact. But to oppose it outright is likely to be counter productive. It is OK for us to do it on this forum but if it were to happen on the Government level it would probably backfire on us.

I think that to the extent that we are now seeing problems with Ireland's strategy, those problems lie in the area of overreach. We are proposing things that in the UK have very little chance of being accepted. If that fails we have very little to fall back on.

Neither government reads this. Posts are people's opinions and are not designed to convince any government of anything.

Do you feel like demanding a soft border is an over reach? That is the only part the UK want a compromise on here. How exactly would you alter the Irish strategy if you could? The longer this question is avoided the less the argument that the Irish government should change tactics makes sense.

Zubeneschamali

Bit cynical wrote: »

We are proposing things that in the UK have very little chance of being accepted. If that fails we have very little to fall back on.

We have the EU to fall back on. The UK are the ones with nothing.



It's a feeble bluff - we can all see their cards.

RobMc59

lawred2 wrote: »

Tabloid waffle.

We are members of the EU. That means Ireland has signed 45 years worth of treaties.

Treaties that detail the roles and responsibilities of nations at the frontier of the European Union..

We are not creating a border but a frontier border is currently without a change in tack by the UK going to be forced upon us. That's the reality and when that happens we have a role to protect the integrity of the EU.

International treaties are something the Irish government takes seriously.

The UK would do well to do the same.

Now maybe you could put away the telegraph or log out from whatever site you're getting your Brexit material from and knock off the lowest common denominator sound bytes and editorial cliches

My opinion is different that is all and I don't proffess to have all the answers-it will be interesting what will happen if may manages to pull a rabbit from the hat-will the EU bend?-I hope not-staying in is a better option.
I'm glad you edited the post btw.

volchitsa

Bit cynical wrote: »

If they cancel A50 and Brexit that will be great for Ireland, but like I say, I don't think the controversial aspects of doing this in the UK are appreciated.

What you're ignoring here is that it's not the NI backstop that is really controversial for the British, it's the NI backstop being applied to whole of the UK.

But we didn't ask for that and don't care about it either way - that was a DUP demand. It's a purely political calculation for the Tories, to remain in power by keeping the DUP on board.

Get rid of the DUP's current influence in Westminster one way or other, and that particular aspect is no longer an issue for most British people.

nice_guy80

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

May is going to Brussels to pretend to look for concessions but really to be told No, so that she can tell the House of Commons she tried, but its her deal or No Deal to scare them into voting for it.

I hope that is the case

But I don't know if she is that clever or brave

Macy0161

Peregrinus wrote: »

The current backstop involves regulatory and customs alignment, and that does eliminate the need for checks and controls. The "alternatives" that the UK is demanding, but has yet to produce, need to do the substantially same. Technology can have at best a minor role, in alleviating the impact of any minimal checks or controls that still remain necessary. And it's pointless to explore exactly what technology can do in this regard until we know the trading relationship, can identify what checks and controls will be needed, and are satisfied that they will be sufficiently minimal as not to infringe the no-hard-border guarantee.

And so we're back to May's Red Lines being the root cause of the backstop, and being the reason she can't command a majority in Parliament.

There hasn't been one move by the UK on those red lines, but apparently it's EU and Irish intransigence that's the issue.

RobMc59

Christy42 wrote: »

What do you want at this point. If there is a no deal we either have a complete destruction of all our industries or we have a border (or at least as soon as the UK deviates from the EU in terms of tariffs etc.). We might be able to sneak by for a bit but other countries (and I mean around the world) won't be happy with is flaunting WTO rules we are signed up for.

The only part of the WA the UK is currently arguing against is the soft border. If they want a hard border we can't stop them.

New ideas but right now the EU has been backing us. The backstop is there for us. Otherwise the EU could have simply cut us out of the single market and got on with the deal.

New ideas or stop with the meaningless phrases. What would you do. I want serious specifics here, not just "do a deal for no border".

I don't have all the answers and neither does anyone else,despite claiming they do-the EU is using the back stop in an attempt to bring the UK to heel-the UK is using the GFA against Ireland-both are wrong imo.
A hard border is bad for everyone and will only bring suffering both sides of the border.
The Taoiseach is probably the only genuine person in all this-I believe the other EU26 and TM and co.couldn't give a flying fcuk about the Irish border,the only people who are lapping all this up is SF and DUP.

VinLieger

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/irish-government-rejects-brexit-bilateral-talks-with-dup-37785968.html



So the DUP came out and said they were engaging in bilateral talks with the Irish government over Brexit.


Vardakar and Coveney quickly told them where to go thank god.


The stupidity and arrogance of these people just constantly astounds me. Who the hell do they think they are with 27/90 seats in Stormont to be representing NI on anything? Also have they not noticed what happens every time May has tried to do exactly the same over the past 2+ years?

fash

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't have all the answers and neither does anyone else,despite claiming they do-the EU is using the back stop in an attempt to bring the UK to heel-the UK is using the GFA against Ireland-both are wrong imo.
A hard border is bad for everyone and will only bring suffering both sides of the border.
The Taoiseach is probably the only genuine person in all this-I believe the other EU26 and TM and co.couldn't give a flying fcuk about the Irish border,the only people who are lapping all this up is SF and DUP.

You can only argue that the EU is abusing the British border in Ireland if you have an alternative solution or at a minimum can show how an alternative timeline for discussion would have been better. Considering that the UK is clearly attempting to abuse the backstop and threaten the GFA (especially with the nonsense alternative technological solutions), clearly now is the better time to address this topic and not let it become a hostage to trade negotiations ( which was obviously part of the UK's "divide and conquer" plan). In addition, you need to provide evidence of what other solutions are available.
It should also be noted that others - including American politicians who also have echoed calls for no hard border.
This is aside from the fact that the EU is -and particularly now must be seen to be - not a "Franco-German alliance" - but rather an entity that works for all its members and values peace over economics.
If you can reasonably argue that, then we can have a discussion as to whether the EU is abusing the backstop to punish the UK.

FrancieBrady

RobMc59 wrote: »

I don't have all the answers and neither does anyone else,despite claiming they do-the EU is using the back stop in an attempt to bring the UK to heel-the UK is using the GFA against Ireland-both are wrong imo.
A hard border is bad for everyone and will only bring suffering both sides of the border.
The Taoiseach is probably the only genuine person in all this-I believe the other EU26 and TM and co.couldn't give a flying fcuk about the Irish border,the only people who are lapping all this up is SF and DUP.

The EU is 'using' the backstop to get the best deal for it's members. Having already compromised with the UK.