Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

branie2

I'd say an extension is on the cards

Irishmale0399

branie2 wrote: »

I'd say an extension is on the cards

It would be the logical thing to do....big questions is will someone say not to it.

Leroy42

branie2 wrote: »

I'd say an extension is on the cards

I would say an extension is actually looking less likely. The UK need an extension either way, and need the EU to agree to it.

So TM thinks that blaming the EU for her problems is the way to go about it?

Remember, that the EU has already effectively built in a delay by way of their No Deal planning including allowing flights, transport etc to remain unchanged for a number of months.

What would another few months achieve when quite clearly the UK believes that anything other than the EU agreeing to time limit the backstop is not acceptable?

Hurrache

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

It would be the logical thing to do....big questions is will someone say not to it.

The problem is that the EU will want to know why they should grant an extension. If it looked like there was movement from Britain in terms of getting the vote through, or if they had come up with new and acceptable proposals, they can see the reasoning.

But if there's nothing new coming from them, and the talks this week being acrimonious, what's the point?

Gerry T

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

It would be the logical thing to do....big questions is will someone say not to it.

Why give an extension, the UK has demonstrated over the past 2 yrs that it has no ability to formulate a plan and truly and honestly negioate. An extension is just a waste of time.
Only if the UK turned around and said it would either sign the withdrawal agreement or give the people a second referendum with remain as an option should the EU consider such a request.
The more pressure put on the UK at this stage in the process the better. Remember if the UK does leave under a hard brexit that is not the final outcome, leave the UK out in the cold for 12 months and watch it run back looking for the withdrawal agreement. If I were managing the process I would tell the UK the withdrawal agreement is off the table on brexit day, following that the UK can have a new deal, 2yr extension, paying 18b a yr with no rebate, no voting rights, only NI in the SM/CU, a backstop that can only be left with express EU say so, a border in the Irish sea, full rights for EU people in the UK.

Leroy42

Hurrache wrote: »

The problem is that the EU will want to know why they should grant an extension. If it looked like there was movement from Britain in terms of getting the vote through, or if they had come up with new and acceptable proposals, they can see the reasoning.

But if there's nothing new coming from them, and the talks this week being acrimonious, what's the point?

The problem being that today TM is going to give a speech setting out that it is all the EU's fault and that they need to change the deal to have any chance of it getting through.

Since the EU have already stated that WA will not be changed, what would be the purpose of an extension? The only thing it does it allow the UK to exert more pressure on the EU.

LeinsterDub

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem being that today TM is going to give a speech setting out that it is all the EU's fault and that they need to change the deal to have any chance of it getting through.

Since the EU have already stated that WA will not be changed, what would be the purpose of an extension? The only thing it does it allow the UK to exert more pressure on the EU.

This deal ? The deal that not a single word will change of ?
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1103986373206462464

Professor Moriarty

LeinsterDub wrote: »

This deal ? The deal that not a single word will change of ?
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1103986373206462464

Succinct and brilliant. Nailed it.

josip

The blame game starts when one party realizes that they're not going to get what they want and they seek to limit the domestic fallout.
Blame games are acrimonious, drive sides further apart and polarise opinion.

So the UK is less likely to accept the deal already 'agreed'/'on offer' and the EU will be less likely to grant an extension.
I suspect the bookies will be shortening their odds of a No Deal Brexit today.

Hurrache

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem being that today TM is going to give a speech setting out that it is all the EU's fault and that they need to change the deal to have any chance of it getting through.

Since the EU have already stated that WA will not be changed, what would be the purpose of an extension? The only thing it does it allow the UK to exert more pressure on the EU.

As James O'Brien said this morning, back in December May said the withdrawal agreement was a resounding victory. But now today herself and members of her cabinet are publicly blaming the EU for the very same agreement, nothing changed about it.

edit: LeinsterDub posted what I was talking about while I took an age to post a few lines.

First Up

All the utterances from May, Hunt and the rest are for domestic consumption and the domestic political agenda.

I think they know perfectly well that their situation is hopeless.

Leroy42

And what is most incredible is that, time and again, TM is allowed this u-turns, pivots and blame without anybody raising the question of her central role in all of it.

We talk about Trump being almost bullet proof in terms of accountability but TM, in a very different way, is almost the same. It seems she can basically say and do anything and people are non-plussed about it all.

Her approval ratings, even within her own party, but in the wider public, are poor, yet there is no-one calling her her head. The rise in knife crime, the NHS waiting lists, not to mention Brexit itself, always seems to not be anything to do with her.

James O'Brien rightly points out that she was telling everyone that this is the best deal, the only deal, yet in January she voted against it and nobody even raised an eyebrow.

The ministers like Hunt seem to be able to come out and blame the EU at will, yet nobody seems to ask why they didn't see all this coming and come up with a plan to counteract it. People just seem to accept it as true and that nothing could ever have been done.

KildareP

Leroy42 wrote: »

And what is most incredible is that, time and again, TM is allowed this u-turns, pivots and blame without anybody raising the question of her central role in all of it.

We talk about Trump being almost bullet proof in terms of accountability but TM, in a very different way, is almost the same. It seems she can basically say and do anything and people are non-plussed about it all.

Her approval ratings, even within her own party, but in the wider public, are poor, yet there is no-one calling her her head. The rise in knife crime, the NHS waiting lists, not to mention Brexit itself, always seems to not be anything to do with her.

James O'Brien rightly points out that she was telling everyone that this is the best deal, the only deal, yet in January she voted against it and nobody even raised an eyebrow.

The ministers like Hunt seem to be able to come out and blame the EU at will, yet nobody seems to ask why they didn't see all this coming and come up with a plan to counteract it. People just seem to accept it as true and that nothing could ever have been done.

Because, quite simply, no-one else actually wants the job of delivering Brexit.
Thus, no-one is going to criticise her for fear of being told "Right, well you take the reins then and give it a go".

s3rtvdbwfj81ch

Leroy42 wrote: »

And what is most incredible is that, time and again, TM is allowed this u-turns, pivots and blame without anybody raising the question of her central role in all of it.

We talk about Trump being almost bullet proof in terms of accountability but TM, in a very different way, is almost the same. It seems she can basically say and do anything and people are non-plussed about it all.

Becasue no Tory is brave enough to take control at this point, they are cowards.

And don't get me started on Corbyn.

Zubeneschamali

Leroy42 wrote: »

Her approval ratings, even within her own party, but in the wider public, are poor, yet there is no-one calling her her head.

No-one else wants the job, because whoever is PM will oversee one of:

a) a deal like May's, vassalage to the EU
b) no deal Brexit, the worst disaster to hit the UK since WWII, and entirely self inflicted

or

c) calling it off, and defying the will of the ERG people.

So the wolves will wait until one of the above happens and is safely pinned on May, and then oust her.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

And what is most incredible is that, time and again, TM is allowed this u-turns, pivots and blame without anybody raising the question of her central role in all of it.

We talk about Trump being almost bullet proof in terms of accountability but TM, in a very different way, is almost the same. It seems she can basically say and do anything and people are non-plussed about it all.

Her approval ratings, even within her own party, but in the wider public, are poor, yet there is no-one calling her her head. The rise in knife crime, the NHS waiting lists, not to mention Brexit itself, always seems to not be anything to do with her.

James O'Brien rightly points out that she was telling everyone that this is the best deal, the only deal, yet in January she voted against it and nobody even raised an eyebrow.

The ministers like Hunt seem to be able to come out and blame the EU at will, yet nobody seems to ask why they didn't see all this coming and come up with a plan to counteract it. People just seem to accept it as true and that nothing could ever have been done.

The last 6 weeks have been stunning in the absence of progress in any direction.

I'd love if someone asked a hard Brexiteer just what exactly did the 17.2M people vote for when they voted to leave and how they know this.

There is no answer to this question but ask them and let them flounder in their defense of taking back control argument while ignoring the reality of what has happened so far.

On Theresa May's accountability. The failed challenge by the Conservatives to oust her and then the government being supported through a no confidence motion has clipped the wings of her opposition on all sides. It is the complete absence of an alternative which should be more frightening in terms of her still being there rather than the fact that she actually is.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

And what is most incredible is that, time and again, TM is allowed this u-turns, pivots and blame without anybody raising the question of her central role in all of it.

We talk about Trump being almost bullet proof in terms of accountability but TM, in a very different way, is almost the same. It seems she can basically say and do anything and people are non-plussed about it all.

Her approval ratings, even within her own party, but in the wider public, are poor, yet there is no-one calling her her head. The rise in knife crime, the NHS waiting lists, not to mention Brexit itself, always seems to not be anything to do with her.

James O'Brien rightly points out that she was telling everyone that this is the best deal, the only deal, yet in January she voted against it and nobody even raised an eyebrow.

The ministers like Hunt seem to be able to come out and blame the EU at will, yet nobody seems to ask why they didn't see all this coming and come up with a plan to counteract it. People just seem to accept it as true and that nothing could ever have been done.

I would say it's because the majority of people aren't listening or paying attention beyond Brexit means Brexit.

gimli2112

I hadn't realised she had voted against her own deal. It's bizzare, how does she expect anyone to vote for it when she won't support it herself?

LeinsterDub

gimli2112 wrote: »

I hadn't realised she had voted against her own deal. It's bizzare, how does she expect anyone to vote for it when she won't support it herself?

I don't think she did are you sure?

Laois_Man

gooch2k9 wrote: »

News on this this morning funnily enough.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-47491914


Can't be heard in court because nothing is actually finalised/agreed.

Some of the comments at the bottom of that article are irritating - in particular those advising us to go read the GFA and we'll see it doesn't mention there being no border and therefore, creating a border isn't in breach of it. I think they need to read it themselves - the bit that talks about "the removal of security installations"

Perhaps they think it was a remarkable coincidence that the hard border vanished in the late 1990's

lawred2

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I don't think she did are you sure?

I thought she voted against it when it was roundly defeated in the HoC!?

gimli2112

LeinsterDub wrote: »

I don't think she did are you sure?

no I just read it here, maybe I misunderstood

Hurrache

May starting her speech about how they'll have more money to spend, on how they've no control of migration, the ECJ, and all the usual taking back control cliches.

lawred2

Hurrache wrote: »

May starting her speech about how they'll have more money to spend, on how they've no control of migration, the ECJ, and all the usual taking back control cliches.

best of luck to them - time for everyone else to let them to it and prepare now for a few lean years

you can't negotiate with delusion

Enzokk

Hurrache wrote: »

Yes, as I said last night the tactic of blaming the EU is well and truly under way.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1103922602001612801

The rest of the thread is some interesting reading. His last post, says it all really,

"There we have it: Brexit deal, PM, government all in that Italian-Job bus, hanging over the cliff edge."

First Up wrote: »

All the utterances from May, Hunt and the rest are for domestic consumption and the domestic political agenda.

I think they know perfectly well that their situation is hopeless.

Yes, but if you paint yourself into a corner with your utterances for domestic consumption then there will a time where you have to go against what you just said for the domestic audience.

James O'Brien is doing live commentary while he speech is happening, some interesting comments.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/

Hurrache

She's still trying to sell the Backstop though from both sides, the UK and the EU. She's saying that the EU won't want them staying in the backstop too long as the EU fear it will give the UK a competitive advantage.

BUT she still tries to put pressure on the EU to do something over the next few days, but in more conciliatory words than those that appeared in the speech published yesterday.

She acknowledges that if they ask for an extension with no plans as to why, the EU could add more terms, and it may also lead to a second referendum. So putting pressure on parliament to vote for it next week and then ask for an extension. Takes more pops at Corbyn.

Leroy42

gimli2112 wrote: »

no I just read it here, maybe I misunderstood

She didn't vote against the deal, or at least I am not aware that she did, but she did vote for and whip for the Brady amendment which called for the WA to be reopened and alternative arrangements to be put in place of the backstop.

Since the WA includes the backstop, whilst not directly voting against her deal, she pushed hard to get the HoC to pass that it should be changed in the most important part,

blanch152

Laois_Man wrote: »

Some of the comments at the bottom of that article are irritating - in particular those advising us to go read the GFA and we'll see it doesn't mention there being no border and therefore, creating a border isn't in breach of it. I think they need to read it themselves - the bit that talks about "the removal of security installations"

Perhaps they think it was a remarkable coincidence that the hard border vanished in the late 1990's

The removal of the hard border was linked both to the GFA and to the creation of the Single Market and the Customs Union. You could argue both complemented each other.

The legal argument being put forward, and it is an interesting one, is that the GFA in and of itself does not require no border. Whether that legal argument would succeed is a different question.

Leroy42

I totally get the no MP wants that job, but that doesn't stop the media, the people, fro questioning her.

Even the likes of Davis and Raab continually come out and lay the blame of the EU, yet they are seldom asked why the cabinet allowed themselves to be played like this. By using the line that the EU are bullying the UK, they are saying that they allowed themselves to be bullied, that they didn't stand up for the UK.

Yet nothing is ever said. A simple "You failed in the one job you were given, why should we listen to anything you have to say now?" would be a start. Or "so you blame TM for pushing you aside, surely you need to force her out?"

Leroy42

blanch152 wrote: »

The legal argument being put forward, and it is an interesting one, is that the GFA in and of itself does not require no border. Whether that legal argument would succeed is a different question.

Its probably something they should have thought of before A50!