Share Picks 2019

route9

Asher Wooden Coupon wrote: »

Up 37% on this.

In it for the long term.

Wow that’s looking very cheap...massive market and probably the leading player. Hmm...

Pussyhands

cefh17 wrote: »

I watch the degenerates on Reddit WSB and just laugh, too scared to do it. Do you?

No I don't know much about them tbh or what the risks are. I think if you sell the option your risk is limitless? Buying the option you only risk the price of the contract?

Wouldn't mind learning about how to do them on degiro.

RedRochey

Degiro doesn't have a great range of options, none of main exchanges are on it, a few random european ones

Cute Hoor

Thargor wrote: »

Is that heading back to the 30's do you think? 1 year chart looks like crap.

Impossible to tell, sub $1 so anything could happen, might be another chance to do a trade today.Well down pre-market.

Browney7

dublin2000 wrote: »

A little off the topic question.

i haven't checked my Degiro account for a while, just logged in there and I see that there have been a lot of charges gone through in the last couple of months. They 2 types - FX Withdraw & Exchange connection fees. Total value not big at all, its about 15-20 euros but still a lot than I would understand it to be. I can probably understand those FX withdraw charges, they are seems to be every time I get dividend distribution because they are in US$ it is then converted to Euro hence a fee charged. Is there any way to avoid this? because I don't hold high balances of those shares, I get like a few $$ dividend then it is mostly taken by tax and FX withdraw charge.

Also, what is Exchange connection fee? I was charge a number of those fees by 2.5 euros each but I've done no transactions in that period.

Exchange connection fee is in the conditions but if you trade on or hold a position on a stock in a given year, an exchange connection fee is charged. Ie you might buy 1 share on the LSE in March 2018 so you pay the fee and then a year later you still hold the position so you get charged again. If you hold one or 100 different shares, 2:50 is only charged once.

The FX withdrawals you are seeing aren't fees - they are deducting the foreign currency amount from the foreign currency account and there should be a corresponding positive euro amount. Not sure if there is a fee in the FX rate they give you though (ie midrate is 1:1 but you might get .99:1)

Supercell

evolving_doors wrote: »

Just hold man. Canadian pension funds are sniffing around now so its long term.

APHA $10.50 so far today and I am finally in the green (was waaay down when it dipped to $8), rumors around a new bid from Green Growth hostile takeover. Thing is I'm not sure I want to sell at this stage :pac:

Supercell

Sold half for small profit, will sleep easier tonight

evolving_doors

Supercell wrote: »

APHA $10.50 so far today and I am finally in the green (was waaay down when it dipped to $8), rumors around a new bid from Green Growth hostile takeover. Thing is I'm not sure I want to sell at this stage :pac:

Green growth haven't a hope in hell. They just want to attach their name to Aphria.
This is the 3rd 'reverse takeunder' rumour since the short attack.

Hold long ...

bilbot79

What's the long game for stocks people? Are they gonna come down?

dublin2000

Browney7 wrote: »

Exchange connection fee is in the conditions but if you trade on or hold a position on a stock in a given year, an exchange connection fee is charged. Ie you might buy 1 share on the LSE in March 2018 so you pay the fee and then a year later you still hold the position so you get charged again. If you hold one or 100 different shares, 2:50 is only charged once.

The FX withdrawals you are seeing aren't fees - they are deducting the foreign currency amount from the foreign currency account and there should be a corresponding positive euro amount. Not sure if there is a fee in the FX rate they give you though (ie midrate is 1:1 but you might get .99:1)

Thanks Browney for your reply! So the exchange connection fee is once a year charge? I only see a negative balance for the FX withdraw no corresponding positive though. Is this mean that is not correctly charged in my account?

Kidkinobe

route9 wrote: »

Wow that’s looking very cheap...massive market and probably the leading player. Hmm...

This was in the paper today.
"Tesla is shifting all of its sales from stores to the internet, saying the move is needed to cut costs so it can sell the mass-market Model 3 for a starting price of US$35,000" Within the article was a statement from Elon.
" CEO Elon Musk has said its essential to Tesla's survival"
Elon obviously sensing a bit of competition which could take him down or simply running out of cash while trying to make headway into the Chinese market while Trump is nipping away at the heels of the Chinese Govt, which will be in the media 'American bad,Chinese good' Nio have some huge backers behind them with very deep pockets.
Think I have just talked myself into buying a few...

Pussyhands

Kidkinobe wrote: »

This was in the paper today.
"Tesla is shifting all of its sales from stores to the internet, saying the move is needed to cut costs so it can sell the mass-market Model 3 for a starting price of US$35,000" Within the article was a statement from Elon.
" CEO Elon Musk has said its essential to Tesla's survival"
Elon obviously sensing a bit of competition which could take him down or simply running out of cash while trying to make headway into the Chinese market while Trump is nipping away at the heels of the Chinese Govt, which will be in the media 'American bad,Chinese good' Nio have some huge backers behind them with very deep pockets.
Think I have just talked myself into buying a few...

Tesla can't compete with any chinese competitor I'd say? Won't Tesla have tarriffs etc while NIO won't.

There's room for both of them though you'd think.

Kidkinobe

Pussyhands wrote: »

Tesla can't compete with any chinese competitor I'd say? Won't Tesla have tarriffs etc while NIO won't.

There's room for both of them though you'd think.

Tesla are opening a factory in Shanghai later this year, to build the cars and the batteries. And of course there would be room for them both..But it will depend on Trump and his tariffs. The Chinese people are not as direct as western people. Trump would say 'up yours, that does not suit me' In retaliation, the Chinese would get the media to print how Tesla cars are unsafe to drive and just give them bad press or any American item that was sold to the Chinese would get bad press.
An example of this happened just recently in New Zealand, NZ relies strongly on the Chinese for their tourism dollar and the Chinese importing their food. NZs main sources of income is tourism and food and the Chinese are their largest market for both. Anyway, the NZ Govt had a jab at the Chinese Govt over their Huawei 5g network which was meant to roll out in NZ until USA said the 5g network was used by the Chinese to spy which led to NZ stalling the installation of the 5G network. Next thing media reports started to appear online in China how NZ was not a very safe country, bad drivers, lots of crime, muggings etc. These simple words in the media has led two Chinese airlines dumping their direct routes to and from NZ and NZs own airline down grading their profits as the Chinese have suddenly decided to drop NZ as a destination of choice. Also, food that was sent to China is made sit in ports as there suddenly seems to be a surge of new paper work from the Chinese to allow NZ goods off the ships. The food does get through at the very last minute but its just a little warning jab to NZ that if they cause trouble for China, China will cause bigger trouble for them by thrashing their economy.
OF course Im not saying the Chinese will isolate Tesla as one of the American made products that needs a hammering...But if the Chinese feel they are getting a bad deal from Trump, American imports/goods will feel the impact by a few simple words in the Chinese media.

Captainsatnav

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Tesla are opening a factory in Shanghai later this year, to build the cars and the batteries. And of course there would be room for them both..But it will depend on Trump and his tariffs. The Chinese people are not as direct as western people. Trump would say 'up yours, that does not suit me' In retaliation, the Chinese would get the media to print how Tesla cars are unsafe to drive and just give them bad press or any American item that was sold to the Chinese would get bad press.
An example of this happened just recently in New Zealand, NZ relies strongly on the Chinese for their tourism dollar and the Chinese importing their food. NZs main sources of income is tourism and food and the Chinese are their largest market for both. Anyway, the NZ Govt had a jab at the Chinese Govt over their Huawei 5g network which was meant to roll out in NZ until USA said the 5g network was used by the Chinese to spy which led to NZ stalling the installation of the 5G network. Next thing media reports started to appear online in China how NZ was not a very safe country, bad drivers, lots of crime, muggings etc. These simple words in the media has led two Chinese airlines dumping their direct routes to and from NZ and NZs own airline down grading their profits as the Chinese have suddenly decided to drop NZ as a destination of choice. Also, food that was sent to China is made sit in ports as there suddenly seems to be a surge of new paper work from the Chinese to allow NZ goods off the ships. The food does get through at the very last minute but its just a little warning jab to NZ that if they cause trouble for China, China will cause bigger trouble for them by thrashing their economy.
OF course Im not saying the Chinese will isolate Tesla as one of the American made products that needs a hammering...But if the Chinese feel they are getting a bad deal from Trump, American imports/goods will feel the impact by a few simple words in the Chinese media.

Jaysus. That's insidious enough carry on!

Cute Hoor

Cute Hoor wrote: »

MONC.MI €28.37 (Target €31.21)

Moncler up around 12% this morning on an excellent set of results and 2019 forecast, dividend up by 40%, SP now at €37.60

Supercell

Whats with all the hype about NIO here and elsewhere? I'm scratching my head about it, people seem to think only Tesla makes electric cars but the fact is all the major manufacturers are doing so or are actively developing models for that market, whats so different about NIO? Dont get me wrong, I'm delighted some of you on here are making money on NIO and obviously I'd like to make some too, but I really prefer to understand the USP of what I'm buying into and NIO doesnt seem to have one?
Could anyone care to explain why NIO is different? (other than the Chinese government probably giving them tax breaks etc) If its like any other Chinese car, I sure as heck wont be buying one anytime soon.

Kidkinobe

Supercell wrote: »

Whats with all the hype about NIO here and elsewhere? I'm scratching my head about it, people seem to think only Tesla makes electric cars but the fact is all the major manufacturers are doing so or are actively developing models for that market, whats so different about NIO? Dont get me wrong, I'm delighted some of you on here are making money on NIO and obviously I'd like to make some too, but I really prefer to understand the USP of what I'm buying into and NIO doesnt seem to have one?
Could anyone care to explain why NIO is different? (other than the Chinese government probably giving them tax breaks etc) If its like any other Chinese car, I sure as heck wont be buying one anytime soon.

Heres the pros and to be balanced, cons will be in the next post.
EV Demand. Chinese demand for EVs is expected to eclipse 1 million units this year, about half the world's total. That number will go to 5 million by 2025, propelled by government quotas and incentives.

Massive Luxury Market. Chinese consumers will buy twice as many luxury vehicles this year as Americans. Audi, Mercedes and BMW earn close to 40% of their global profits from China.

Performance Specs. The NIO ES8 comes with formidable performance chops. Zero to 60 in 4.4 seconds, just a whisker behind Tesla. The battery range is a respectable 240 miles on a full charge. NIO has also built a network of 3-minute battery swap stations.

Technology. The ES8 also features Nomi, the dash-mounted AI assistant that responds to voice commands. From behind the wheel last month, I said: "Hey, Nomi, open the sunroof 50%." The top window opened halfway and stopped. Impressive.

Price. The ES8 starts at $67,000. That's about half the cost of an imported Tesla Model X (after tariffs).

Backers: Early investors in NIO include Hillhouse Capital, Sequoia Capital and Tencent—powerhouses all. Founder William Li is a self-made billionaire who grew up in a rural town in hardscrabble Anhui province. He knows how to win.

Kidkinobe

Supercell wrote: »

Whats with all the hype about NIO here and elsewhere? I'm scratching my head about it, people seem to think only Tesla makes electric cars but the fact is all the major manufacturers are doing so or are actively developing models for that market, whats so different about NIO? Dont get me wrong, I'm delighted some of you on here are making money on NIO and obviously I'd like to make some too, but I really prefer to understand the USP of what I'm buying into and NIO doesnt seem to have one?
Could anyone care to explain why NIO is different? (other than the Chinese government probably giving them tax breaks etc) If its like any other Chinese car, I sure as heck wont be buying one anytime soon.

Cons and things to figure out.
Competitors. NIO is far ahead of where Tesla stood after its first four years. But Tesla enjoyed a grace period of zero competition in the EV arena. German automakers (and other Chinese EV startups) are preparing their own stunning new products for market launches in the coming months.

Scaling Up. Will NIO be able to rapidly increase production and sales? Tesla's painful experience at the Fremont, California, plant no doubt keeps NIO leaders awake at night. Then there is the sales challenge. NIO is going with a direct-to-mobile approach in lieu of dealers, which is unprecedented in the industry.

Allure: NIO is doing many smart and inventive things to build the brand, including its flagship NIO Houses in Shanghai and Beijing. Will they be compelling enough to win over Chinese buyers who love their BMWs, Mercedes and Audis?

WIN, PLACE OR (JUST) SHOW?

Some market commentators have recently been quite critical of NIO, suggesting that the company is heavy on "show" and light on substance. With any startup, there is always a place for healthy skepticism. But NIO has developed a remarkably competitive vehicle, replete with world-class technologies.

What rightly gives pause to investors is the needling question of how soon makers of electric cars can make a profit. Steadily declining battery prices suggest that day is coming sooner rather than later. This makes NIO look a little bit like a buy-low-now and sell-high-later opportunity.

The risks are there for sure. But as Clint Eastwood says: "If you want a guaranteed thing, buy a toaster."

Supercell

Thats a fantastic write up Kidkinobe many thanks for that.

You are correct to put the love of brands in the cons side. My wife is Chinese and trying to get her to buy a generic brand for even stuff like salt in the supermarket is a battle, she always wants the branded "reputable" item and i might as well be talking to the wall trying to convince her otherwise.

I think this is a common mindset there given the amount of fake product, even eggs can be fake!
Which brings me to one of the the main pros you have highlighted - the size of the market and burgeoning middle/upper class there. I have no doubt there is a massive, massive market there, but the young there absolutely love all things American in my experience. If Tesla gets its act together or maybe Ford comes out with a high spec electrical car Nio are going to have a battle on their hands.German stuff has a great reputation of high spec as well -my wife's uncle asked her to bring a Bosch drill over last time as he believed they made the best drills in the world and he wanted to be sure he got a genuine one.
I'm going to talk to my wife and think about it over the weekend before dipping in here. Thanks again for putting the time into writing those replies.

Kidkinobe

Supercell wrote: »

Thats a fantastic write up Kidkinobe many thanks for that.

You are correct to put the love of brands in the cons side. My wife is Chinese and trying to get her to buy a generic brand for even stuff like salt in the supermarket is a battle, she always wants the branded "reputable" item and i might as well be talking to the wall trying to convince her otherwise.

I think this is a common mindset there given the amount of fake product, even eggs can be fake!
Which brings me to one of the the main pros you have highlighted - the size of the market and burgeoning middle/upper class there. I have no doubt there is a massive, massive market there, but the young there absolutely love all things American in my experience. If Tesla gets its act together or maybe Ford comes out with a high spec electrical car Nio are going to have a battle on their hands.German stuff has a great reputation of high spec as well -my wife's uncle asked her to bring a Bosch drill over last time as he believed they made the best drills in the world and he wanted to be sure he got a genuine one.
I'm going to talk to my wife and think about it over the weekend before dipping in here. Thanks again for putting the time into writing those replies.

I guess I should have said it was a c/p from an article I found on the internet..I never heard of Nio until it was mentioned here and since the thread is about share tips I have been reading up on it since. Put a few hundy on it today, if it fails, no biggie. Added Nio to my news feed so will be kept up to date on the company and whether to keep on throwing a few hundy at it now and again or just bailing.

Pussyhands

NIO and Ryanair CHOO CHOO

q85dw7osi4lebg

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Cons and things to figure out.
Competitors. NIO is far ahead of where Tesla stood after its first four years. But Tesla enjoyed a grace period of zero competition in the EV arena. German automakers (and other Chinese EV startups) are preparing their own stunning new products for market launches in the coming months.

Scaling Up. Will NIO be able to rapidly increase production and sales? Tesla's painful experience at the Fremont, California, plant no doubt keeps NIO leaders awake at night. Then there is the sales challenge. NIO is going with a direct-to-mobile approach in lieu of dealers, which is unprecedented in the industry.

Allure: NIO is doing many smart and inventive things to build the brand, including its flagship NIO Houses in Shanghai and Beijing. Will they be compelling enough to win over Chinese buyers who love their BMWs, Mercedes and Audis?

WIN, PLACE OR (JUST) SHOW?

Some market commentators have recently been quite critical of NIO, suggesting that the company is heavy on "show" and light on substance. With any startup, there is always a place for healthy skepticism. But NIO has developed a remarkably competitive vehicle, replete with world-class technologies.

What rightly gives pause to investors is the needling question of how soon makers of electric cars can make a profit. Steadily declining battery prices suggest that day is coming sooner rather than later. This makes NIO look a little bit like a buy-low-now and sell-high-later opportunity.

The risks are there for sure. But as Clint Eastwood says: "If you want a guaranteed thing, buy a toaster."

You should proofread NIO's PR.

10/10.

Gruffalo22

The NIO article is here
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2018/09/13/nio-chinas-first-premium-ev-goes-public-how-to-play-it/

The same writer has an article on other Chinese EV startups

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldunne/2018/09/27/nio-cracks-the-nyse-whos-next/#1daa46d41b98

Cute Hoor

Looks like somebody knows something about NIO, earnings in the morning and down around 10% on day's high

Bob Harris

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Looks like somebody knows something about NIO, earnings in the morning and down around 10% on day's high

No doubt the luminaries on Stocktwits will put it down to MM's shaking out weak hands to hoover up cheap shares. Under 9.50 and dropping now after opening at 10.32 - there is something going on. If ER is poor and drops more I might get a handful.

littlevillage

Tesla getting a beating as well. $285 at the mo

Supercell

Bob Harris wrote: »

No doubt the luminaries on Stocktwits will put it down to MM's shaking out weak hands to hoover up cheap shares. Under 9.50 and dropping now after opening at 10.32 - there is something going on. If ER is poor and drops more I might get a handful.

I laughed! thanks

XMG

NIO was supposed to release earnings pre market?

Cute Hoor

XMG wrote: »

NIO was supposed to release earnings pre market?

Post market

Bob Harris

NIO down over 10% after ER.